FootballOutsiders Adjusted Interceptions 2012

[DaDitka]

I share some interesting numbers from Football Outsiders even now and then and they just posted their Adjusted Interceptions 2012

Obviously this is Bears related because the numbers aren't very kind to Jay, but I find a lot of the other numbers very interesting as well. (man I hate Tom Brady)

[FaithInCutler]

While you're right about not being kind.. its also only one stat. I honestly have no idea if it would help.. but if you were to enter in the great throws and his TD% as well I would assume he would look at least a little better. To me, Cutler makes up for his Int's by throwing unreal passes at times and his bombs are usually on the money.

[KOP_Snake]

Packers fans on there still whining about that seahawks hail mary

[dadoc]

Cutler makes up for his Int's by throwing unreal passes at times and his bombs are usually on the money.

OK First off I'm not "Cutler Bashing" but I can count on one hand how many unreal throws Cutler made last year. If his receivers didn't have to stop and wait on the ball then I would agree with you on this, but saying his "bombs are usually on the money" is not exactly true. Yes he has a strong arm but he rarely hits people in stride. DD and I were talking about this just 10 min ago and the only one we can think of is one of Ashlon's first TD's that Jay hit him in stride.

[DaDitka]

Yeah.....don't get me wrong, Jay has a cannon and can throw balls in tight windows that many would not even attempt, but hitting guys in stride is not on of his strong suits. He himself has admitted to a basic lack of anticipation. He wants to see his receivers open and then riffle the ball in there before the defenders can close.

Most of his deep passes require the receiver to adjust to the ball (as is the case with most QBs) and that is why guys like Hester and Davis were so horrible with Jay...they lack the ability to adjust to the ball or play the ball in the air.

Fourtunatly, those are both strong suits of B and Jeffery.

[DaDitka]

Oh....and with us now adding Bennett....Jay can just throw it up and let his guys go get it every time.

[FaithInCutler]

Cutler makes up for his Int's by throwing unreal passes at times and his bombs are usually on the money.

OK First off I'm not "Cutler Bashing" but I can count on one hand how many unreal throws Cutler made last year. If his receivers didn't have to stop and wait on the ball then I would agree with you on this, but saying his "bombs are usually on the money" is not exactly true. Yes he has a strong arm but he rarely hits people in stride. DD and I were talking about this just 10 min ago and the only one we can think of is one of Ashlon's first TD's that Jay hit him in stride.

I honestly think it depends who he is throwing to. Hester seemed to lose a lot of them that I think other receivers would have had a good chance to catch.
I do tend to remember the good more than the bad and forgive Cutler a little more than I should... Having said that I still think Cutler the past two years has been better than average given his weapons. These numbers alone have him near the bottom. I do think he is near top 10 and has potential to be top 5.. So, there has to be somewhere he makes up for it.

[FaithInCutler]

Yeah.....don't get me wrong, Jay has a cannon and can throw balls in tight windows that many would not even attempt, but hitting guys in stride is not on of his strong suits. He himself has admitted to a basic lack of anticipation. He wants to see his receivers open and then riffle the ball in there before the defenders can close.

Most of his deep passes require the receiver to adjust to the ball (as is the case with most QBs) and that is why guys like Hester and Davis were so horrible with Jay...they lack the ability to adjust to the ball or play the ball in the air.

Fourtunatly, those are both strong suits of B and Jeffery.

Looks like we are on the same page. You said mostly what I was trying to..

[DaDitka]

I do tend to remember the good more than the bad and forgive Cutler a little more than I should... Having said that I still think Cutler the past two years has been better than average given his weapons. These numbers alone have him near the bottom. I do think he is near top 10 and has potential to be top 5.. So, there has to be somewhere he makes up for it.

That's the beautiful part about this year. They've given him everything...if he's a top QB his stats will prove that out....if they don't, there's no reason for further speculation.

They have fixed the line, he has three huge targets, and they are going to throw the ball 540 + times. The ball is in his court.

[dadoc]

The ball is in his court.

This is a great statement. This is it for him period. He either performs or he doesn't. At the end of this year the discussion on Cutler being a "great" QB with no help or a guy with limitless potential and an under performer is going to be answered. Either way it is going to be exciting to watch.

[FaithInCutler]

I do tend to remember the good more than the bad and forgive Cutler a little more than I should... Having said that I still think Cutler the past two years has been better than average given his weapons. These numbers alone have him near the bottom. I do think he is near top 10 and has potential to be top 5.. So, there has to be somewhere he makes up for it.

That's the beautiful part about this year. They've given him everything...if he's a top QB his stats will prove that out....if they don't, there's no reason for further speculation.

They have fixed the line, he has three huge targets, and they are going to throw the ball 540 + times. The ball is in his court.

Yep, If I'm wrong I guess I'll need a new screen name. lol I think we agree for the most part he will rise to the challenge. With what he has gone through I think it will make him even better. It's almost like Going through Navy Seal training.. The missions will be easy now that he can actually keep his eyes on Webb and not have him on his back side lol. (Disclaimer) I in no way-shape-or-form, think that this year will be easy.

[Rusty Trombagent]

well lets put an asterisk by they have fixed the line.

[DaDitka]

well lets put an asterisk by they have fixed the line.

They have upgraded 3 of the four positions and center wasn't an 'issue' (not a strength either).

Webb replacing Carimi and getting a legit LG will be a night and day improvement.

Not to mention Bennett's blocking ability.

Not to mention Trestman's WCO will have much shorter routs and Jay will be getting the ball out of his hands much quicker this year.

Now....I'm not saying this line is suddenly a top 5 unit.....but it's good enough to not be an issue .....er.....excuse.....this year.

[FaithInCutler]

All in all, we may not have a pro bowl player at each position. But I do agree that we have enough talent that Jay has to make the next stride this year or people will start second guessing if he ever will. We have gotten better and the draft "COULD" make us border line elite depending on who we draft and Jay doing what we think he can.

[DaDitka]

All in all, we may not have a pro bowl player at each position.

No...but we have a probowl RB, a probowl LT, a probowl WR, and a TE we're paying at a FRANCHISE level. I'm having a very had time thinking of a team outside of Atlanta or San Fran that have their QB in a better position.

Maybe Denver...but who is going to be the RB there?

[FaithInCutler]

All in all, we may not have a pro bowl player at each position.

No...but we have a probowl RB, a probowl LT, a probowl WR, and a TE we're paying at a FRANCHISE level. I'm having a very had time thinking of a team outside of Atlanta or San Fran that have their QB in a better position.

Maybe Denver...but who is going to be the RB there?

STOP IT! You're making me all giddy.

[DaDitka]

No...but we have a probowl RB, a probowl LT, a probowl WR, and a TE we're paying at a FRANCHISE level. I'm having a very had time thinking of a team outside of Atlanta or San Fran that have their QB in a better position.

Maybe Denver...but who is going to be the RB there?

STOP IT! You're making me all giddy.

And we should be. If Jay is as good as we all think he can be, this offense should easily be top 10.

[BlackEngineer]

STOP IT! You're making me all giddy.

And we should be. If Jay is as good as we all think he can be, this offense should easily be top 10.

Here we go again with these crazy assertions. Just because the Bears have made moves that make them resemble an average NFL Offense, don't think that is enough for them to make the jump to Elite territory just yet. I can name 13 teams whose talent on Offense surrounding their Quarterback is still better than Cutler's even with the new editions on offense.

The Falcons The Patriots The Giants The Packers The Buccaneers
The Saints The 49ers The Texans The Cowboys
The Broncos The Seahawks The Lions The Eagles

Now DaDitka, what you should have said is : If Marc Trestman, Aaron Kromer, and Phil Emery are as good as we think they are, this Offense should easily be top 10.

As of late, Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid have already proven this theory with Alex Smith and Michael Vick.


That's a better assessment of expectations for the Bears Offense.

[BlackEngineer]

Cutler makes up for his Int's by throwing unreal passes at times and his bombs are usually on the money.

OK First off I'm not "Cutler Bashing" but I can count on one hand how many unreal throws Cutler made last year. If his receivers didn't have to stop and wait on the ball then I would agree with you on this, but saying his "bombs are usually on the money" is not exactly true. Yes he has a strong arm but he rarely hits people in stride. DD and I were talking about this just 10 min ago and the only one we can think of is one of Ashlon's first TD's that Jay hit him in stride.

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Here's a little 4 minute highlight video of some of Cutler's TD throws and other passes.

I counted 7 "stride throws" alone in this video alone! The Jeffrey bomb is not even in the video.
1. 1st 5 secs
1.(bonus) :30-:54 These aren't stride throws, but they are absolutely sick!
2. 1:04
3. 1:12
4. 1:35
5. 2:08 ( Throws in stride off back foot, Doubt many other QBs in the league can do that!
6. 2:57
7. 3:40

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Now let's look at some of Aaron Rodgers throws in his MVP Year.
His ability to throw "in stride" may surprise a lot of you.

Five things to observe:

- Notice how many times he is throwing to receivers that are WIDE OPEN
-How many "in stride" throws can you count?
- Watching this video do you realize how amazing his Wide receivers are?
- Do you notice that his O-line is blocking mostly without help?
- Do you see that they send FIVE RECEIVERS on ROUTES.. CRAZY

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A little highlight film on Drew Brees also.
Ditto with the same observations.

Scheme and Talent Matters, Remember that

[DaDitka]

Here we go again with these crazy assertions. Just because the Bears have made moves that make them resemble an average NFL Offense, don't think that is enough for them to make the jump to Elite territory just yet. I can name 13 teams whose talent on Offense surrounding their Quarterback is still better than Cutler's even with the new editions on offense.

The Falcons The Patriots The Giants The Packers The Buccaneers
The Saints The 49ers The Texans The Cowboys
The Broncos The Seahawks The Lions The Eagles

Just because you're an idiot doesn't make me wrong.

Who is the Patriots #1 or even #2 WR? Which in is a probowler?

Who is the Giants probowl running back?

Who is the the Packers probowl RB and #1 WR? How about their line?

The Saint's just let three Probowl offensive lineman walk as well as the OL coach.

The Texans not only have now number 2 WR, their #1 hasn't been good in two years.

The Cowboys are very comparable......untill you realize they resigned Doug Free... still, I'm willing to give you a push.

I've addressed the Broncos.

The Hawks.....close....but I put Marshall above Harvin, Jeffery above Rice, and while I think Zach Miller is highly under-rated...I don't think he's as good as Bennett.

The Lions? .....seriously?...Name their #2? Reggie Bush is a nice addition as a pass catcher but he offers nothing close to either Forte or Bush in the rushing attack. Their #1 WR is better and their TE is comparable, but their OL is actually worse then ours.

The Eagles have two #2 WRs..but no #1. Stud RB and a solid TE, but their OL is worse then ours as well.

In all honesty....I feel terrible for even spending this much time and/or energy responding to one of your posts....but apparently I couldn't resist.

The sad part is I think we see this the same on many levels .......

If Marc Trestman, Aaron Kromer, and Phil Emery are as good as we think they are, this Offense should easily be top 10.

but I feel you're still going out of your way to build in excuses for Jay.

In all 100% honesty......it very unlikely the Phil, Marc, or Jay are still in Chicago in 4 years. But personally I'm going to choose to put my (blind) faith in Phil and Marc......and you may be right, they may let Jay down.....but ether way it will cost him his job in the long run whether it's his fault or theirs, so whey the argument.


I'm not going to get back into long winded discourse with you again...I don't feel it did the site any favors last time.

I've said my piece..

If Jay isn't top ten in passing this year I'm done with him and in most likely-hood Marc and Phil will be gone in three or four years. That's the NFL today.

[BlackEngineer]

WOW.. Just Wow. I can't believe I actually read what I just read. I thought I was a little biased because of my love of the Bears, but you my man take it to new heights. I actually respect most of your views so I won't allow those comments to discredit you too much, but you're absolutely killing me with some of the asinine comments you just made!

Most of them are beyond stupidity, but I will address the most egregious ones.

1."The Texans not only have now number 2 WR, their #1 hasn't been good in two years."
- Andre Johnson had 116 receptions, and 1600 yds last year. If that's not good, then I don't know what is.
- BTW, who is our number 2 WR?

2. "Who is the the Packers probowl RB and #1 WR? How about their line?"
- The Packers were 11th in Pass Blocking(PFF)
- They don't need a probowl RB, just one that can keep defenses honest.
- Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, All were taking in 2nd and 3rd Rounds. By comparison,
Brandon Marshall was a 4th round pick. However, if you want a #1, Jordy Nelson definitely fits the bill.

3. " The Lions? .....seriously?...Name their #2? Reggie Bush is a nice addition as a pass catcher but he offers nothing close to either Forte or Bush in the rushing attack. Their #1 WR is better and their TE is comparable, but their OL is actually worse then ours. "

- One, Reggie Bush has been a 1000 yard type back for two years now, since given the featured role with the Dolphins. His Rushing numbers are comparable favorable with Forte's
- Two, and this might had just be most idiotic thing I've ever heard, THEIR O-LINE WAS THE 10 BEST UNIT LAST YEAR!! 4th in Pass Blocking.
You don't pass 727 times with an OL as bad as the Bears( Who only could pass 434 times, WITH HELP NEEDED 74% of the time.. just pathetic.)

4. "The Cowboys are very comparable......untill you realize they resigned Doug Free... still, I'm willing to give you a push"
-- Are you Crazy? The Cowboys have TWO #1 Receivers in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, a HOF Tight End still playing like a HOF Tight end, and a Runningback who is a top 10 back when Healthy. Whenever you see a QB passs over 600 times, their O-line is not nearly as bad as the Bears.

-- Now pretty much all of your responses were asinine, but I notice where these comments are coming from. See you greatly over-value the Bears players and are blinded by fan bias. First, Alshon Jeffery has not proven anything yet, seeing that he had less than 300 yds receiving last year. As of right now, you can't say he is better than ANYBODY until he proves it. As it stands, Darrius Heyward Bey is better than Alshon Jeffery when it comes to Stats.

--Martellus Bennet had one good season in his 5-year career, which came last year when he had 620 receiving yards. Zach Miller has had seasons of 775 yds, 805 yds, and 685 yds, when he was featured in an offense. We're banking on Bennett being as good as advertised, but don't go thinking he is a top 10 tight end just yet.

Don't become complacent with the Bears moves on Offense. They still have a few key pieces to add before they are able to hang with the Big Boy Offenses.

[DaDitka]

WOW.. Just Wow. I can't believe I actually read what I just read. I thought I was a little biased because of my love of the Bears, but you my man take it to new heights. I actually respect most of your views so I won't allow those comments to discredit you too much, but you're absolutely killing me with some of the asinine comments you just made!

Most of them are beyond stupidity, but I will address the most egregious ones.

Dude...consider you're high faulting ass warned.

You go out of your way to try and make yourself seem more intelligent then others, you talk down to others...and generally I just don't like you.

Even if you make decent points you pompous prefaces paint you as an idiotic blow hard, you were an ass you're first trip here and it's fair to say I was disappointed to see you back with more of the same.

I'm not going to discuss anything with you any further here in fairness to both of us..........but if I see one more condescending post by you towards any posters (not myself) your ass will be gone.

If you've got something to share please try doing so without being complete ass. It really does appear you know football, but you can't seem to get past you're over-inflated opinion of yourself when trying to share these thoughts.

[dadoc]

Don't become complacent with the Bears moves on Offense. They still have a few key pieces to add before they are able to hang with the Big Boy Offenses.

This is the only smart thing that you have said. Yes the Bears are still a work in progress, but all good offenses/teams are a work in process.

As far as you coming in here and acting like a pompous ass I won't address that the mods have handled it sufficiently. But if I may can I make an observation? It is obvious to me that you know football. Perhaps even as much or more than WAB and DaDitka. One of the things that they do that you do not is that they do not talk down to people or try and make themselves sound more important than others. I personally feel if you would lose that 100lbs chip on your shoulder and actually work to have discussions to make those of us here better fans you would be a welcome addition. If this falls on deaf ears then that is your loss not ours. We have a very smart and passionate community here that you could be a nice addition to as not everyone understands this game on as deep of levels as it appears that you do and that is an asset worth having.

[FaithInCutler]

I was not going to touch this with a 10 foot pole. But, I agree that we are a work in progress. Lucky for us we still have a draft to go.. I have never been so excited about the start of a season. The simple fact that we have an offensive minded coach is enough to get me excited again. No more "getting off the bus running" stuff. I don't think anyone would be out of line by saying we have a strong possibility to become a top 10 offensive team.

[DaDitka]

I don't think anyone would be out of line by saying we have a strong possibility to become a top 10 offensive team.

And more so to a top 10 passing game. Assuming we're not plagued buy turnovers, we should finish in the top 5 in pass attempts. (Behind GB, DET, NO, and maybe a third team). Obviously teams like Atlanta and Denver have a great passing game, but they are more committed to a balanced game plan then Trestman has shown in the past. I believe Trestman should be inventive enough to find a way to get other targets besides Marshall involved and the yardage should be there. It's going to come down to coming away with 7 instead of 3 in the redzone and limiting turnovers.

[FaithInCutler]

I would trade being top 10 in passing for being a balanced offense. I will include screens and short passes. Being top 10 in attempts kinda scares me to be honest.

[DaDitka]

I would trade being top 10 in passing for being a balanced offense. I will include screens and short passes. Being top 10 in attempts kinda scares me to be honest.

I totally agree....but that's Trestman's offense. Think Andy Reid. (In the past) Trestman uses the screen and other passes to the back out of the backfield as an extension of the running game. I know Rich Gannon who played under Marc and has been in contact since taking the job suggested we'll see a better then 60/40 split in favor of the passing game.

For comparison's sake ESPN has us down for 485 passing attempts and 470 rushing attempts.

That;s 955 offensive plays. For arguments sake lest say we pick up one extra first down a game next year that's three offensive plays (not counting 4th down) in 16 games so 48 additional plays bringing the total to 1003. At a 60/40 split that's 602 pass attempts and 401 rushing attempts.

[FaithInCutler]

I would trade being top 10 in passing for being a balanced offense. I will include screens and short passes. Being top 10 in attempts kinda scares me to be honest.

I totally agree....but that's Trestman's offense. Think Andy Reid. (In the past) Trestman uses the screen and other passes to the back out of the backfield as an extension of the running game. I know Rich Gannon who played under Marc and has been in contact since taking the job suggested we'll see a better then 60/40 split in favor of the passing game.

For comparison's sake ESPN has us down for 485 passing attempts and 470 rushing attempts.

That;s 955 offensive plays. For arguments sake lest say we pick up one extra first down a game next year that's three offensive plays (not counting 4th down) in 16 games so 48 additional plays bringing the total to 1003. At a 60/40 split that's 602 pass attempts and 401 rushing attempts.

I agree 100% with you. I think if we pick up one more 1st down per game we win both the Seattle and Vikings game last year! :/ That would put us in the playoffs and things would be a lot different right now.

Anyway, I'm sure you are right about Trestman. I have heard the same things. I just hope he has something in store for those cold windy days we are sure to have by the lake.

[FaithInCutler]

And I think 60%/ 40% is more than fair. It's if we start getting close to the 70-75% mark that has me scared. I think that is impossible in Chicago anyway.. Just a small scare I have..

[DaDitka]

And I think 60%/ 40% is more than fair. It's if we start getting close to the 70-75% mark that has me scared. I think that is impossible in Chicago anyway.. Just a small scare I have..

If you'er in the 70-75% range....it's because you're playing from behind in the second half most of the time. So you're correct, that's not something I want to see. I want to see this team padding their rushing stats in the 4th quarter.