Update: Alshon Jeffery signs w/ Eagles

[WP.1]

Akiem Hicks

[malk]

Akiem Hicks

I can't recall how prized Hicks was in 2016 but by mere virtue of us signing him on a 2 year $10m deal he wasn't one of the leagues top targets.

It is a really good example of what I think is one of Pace's failings, poor calculation of risk/reward in the cap.

Hicks' initial contract with us had good downside protection, i.e. if he disappointed we were only on the hook for $5m guaranteed. That isn't a bad thing, certainly better than throwing $115m at Suh or something similar. However, considering where it was in the team's development and our cap situation at the time, it gave absolutely zero upside outside of getting the inside track on a future contract (which admittedly isn't nothing). If he does poorly we can get out, if he does well he get's paid. There's no opportunity for a market beating contract as seen now when he's the 4th highest paid 3-4 DE in the league. Plus the cheaper part of his time with us is the period where we weren't competing anyway. I'm super happy he's on the team but you can't win the whole thing without having some players that out-perform their contracts.

Now I don't know what it took to get Hicks to sign and maybe he wanted to sign a shorter deal to back himself to get the deal he now has. But given he'd previously only been paid a 3rd round pick rookie deal and $1.3m for a one year deal with the Patriots... well I think he could have been tempted into a longer deal.

So this belies a lack of confidence in free agents and that's consistent with Pace's language when talking about it. Building through the draft to the exclusion of most else. Pulling numbers out of the air, if we'd have offered Hicks 5 years and $35m back then with $15m guaranteed in the first 2 years, he may well have taken it. Instead we effectively signed him to 5 years $54m with $27 guaranteed. The latter deal isn't a bad one, we're not on the hook for much beyond 2018 but it's still a missed opportunity.

So much has to go right to win it all and we're not making enough good decisions yet.

[Hematite]

Akiem Hicks

I can't recall how prized Hicks was in 2016 but by mere virtue of us signing him on a 2 year $10m deal he wasn't one of the leagues top targets.

It is a really good example of what I think is one of Pace's failings, poor calculation of risk/reward in the cap.

Hicks' initial contract with us had good downside protection, i.e. if he disappointed we were only on the hook for $5m guaranteed. That isn't a bad thing, certainly better than throwing $115m at Suh or something similar. However, considering where it was in the team's development and our cap situation at the time, it gave absolutely zero upside outside of getting the inside track on a future contract (which admittedly isn't nothing). If he does poorly we can get out, if he does well he get's paid. There's no opportunity for a market beating contract as seen now when he's the 4th highest paid 3-4 DE in the league. Plus the cheaper part of his time with us is the period where we weren't competing anyway. I'm super happy he's on the team but you can't win the whole thing without having some players that out-perform their contracts.

Now I don't know what it took to get Hicks to sign and maybe he wanted to sign a shorter deal to back himself to get the deal he now has. But given he'd previously only been paid a 3rd round pick rookie deal and $1.3m for a one year deal with the Patriots... well I think he could have been tempted into a longer deal.

So this belies a lack of confidence in free agents and that's consistent with Pace's language when talking about it. Building through the draft to the exclusion of most else. Pulling numbers out of the air, if we'd have offered Hicks 5 years and $35m back then with $15m guaranteed in the first 2 years, he may well have taken it. Instead we effectively signed him to 5 years $54m with $27 guaranteed. The latter deal isn't a bad one, we're not on the hook for much beyond 2018 but it's still a missed opportunity.

So much has to go right to win it all and we're not making enough good decisions yet.

To me this is such an unfair assessment. Yeah I get that it takes players over producing compared to their contracts but most teams that have that occur regularly are dealing with rookie contracts. Overpaying a player that isn't producing especially on a longer contract is far more detrimental to team building then underpaying initially and rewarding a player that deserves it.

[malk]

Akiem Hicks

I can't recall how prized Hicks was in 2016 but by mere virtue of us signing him on a 2 year $10m deal he wasn't one of the leagues top targets.

It is a really good example of what I think is one of Pace's failings, poor calculation of risk/reward in the cap.

Hicks' initial contract with us had good downside protection, i.e. if he disappointed we were only on the hook for $5m guaranteed. That isn't a bad thing, certainly better than throwing $115m at Suh or something similar. However, considering where it was in the team's development and our cap situation at the time, it gave absolutely zero upside outside of getting the inside track on a future contract (which admittedly isn't nothing). If he does poorly we can get out, if he does well he get's paid. There's no opportunity for a market beating contract as seen now when he's the 4th highest paid 3-4 DE in the league. Plus the cheaper part of his time with us is the period where we weren't competing anyway. I'm super happy he's on the team but you can't win the whole thing without having some players that out-perform their contracts.

Now I don't know what it took to get Hicks to sign and maybe he wanted to sign a shorter deal to back himself to get the deal he now has. But given he'd previously only been paid a 3rd round pick rookie deal and $1.3m for a one year deal with the Patriots... well I think he could have been tempted into a longer deal.

So this belies a lack of confidence in free agents and that's consistent with Pace's language when talking about it. Building through the draft to the exclusion of most else. Pulling numbers out of the air, if we'd have offered Hicks 5 years and $35m back then with $15m guaranteed in the first 2 years, he may well have taken it. Instead we effectively signed him to 5 years $54m with $27 guaranteed. The latter deal isn't a bad one, we're not on the hook for much beyond 2018 but it's still a missed opportunity.

So much has to go right to win it all and we're not making enough good decisions yet.

To me this is such an unfair assessment. Yeah I get that it takes players over producing compared to their contracts but most teams that have that occur regularly are dealing with rookie contracts. Overpaying a player that isn't producing especially on a longer contract is far more detrimental to team building then underpaying initially and rewarding a player that deserves it.

I think you've missed my point a little. Yes the worst thing you can do is overpaying on a long term deal. That's why I mentioned Suh and if Pace had dished out a contract like that I'd be calling for his head. He hasn't though so the argument is a canard.

The problem with most of Pace's free agent contracts, bar for McPhee, is that they aren't long enough to have an upside. McPhee's contract was substantial but about half the cost (average per year) of a top edge rusher's, currently just outside the top 20. Now we now how it has played out with injuries but we can get out of the last couple of years with little trouble and it was a good gamble even though it didn't pay off.

Hicks should, and could, have been signed to a similar contract and I think it's massively important that Pace learns from the mistake.

Plus this isn't to say that Pace's decisions have all been bad. Trevathan was a good contract, a top ILB with a non cap killing contract that we could get out of if necessary. But then there are the contract's like Wheaton's, basically the same as the first Hicks one except it hasn't worked out. Am I happy that we can get out of it, sure but imagine if he had broken out? We'd then be looking at paying him a pile this year or next so where's the upside?

$7m to Amukamara on a one year deal in a season where the absolute best outcome was one and done in the playoffs. Madness.

We're too far behind to just build through the draft so we need to make some good free agent signings and potentially use some of our massive cap space to sign a splashy one. I'm hoping he does that with a good choice massively front loaded but it remains to be seen.

Oh, and I haven't even gotten into how poor a choice Glennon was, nor the apparent need to give Dion Sims $6m per year...

[staleystarch]

Is it true we offered him a contract and he refused? Does anyone have a link to that / and the numbers of the contract?

10-15 posts ago. And I don’t think specific numbers were known, but multiple reports had the contract being around 12 million annually.

Nobody but the Bears front office and AJ plus his agent know. And as for him not being a legit number one, bullshit!
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