How to win in the salary cap era

[Hematite]

This whole conversation brings back memories of the Dominant Unit Theory proposed from somebody from the old chicago bears message board. Can't remember the posters name, but it sure made for good conversations!

[Middleguard]

Can't find anything on that. Can you elaborate in 25 words or less so I can see if it rings any bells or opens any links?

[Hematite]

Can't find anything on that. Can you elaborate in 25 words or less so I can see if it rings any bells or opens any links?

From what I remember from so long ago. The idea was based on having 1 side of the ball dominant to carry the other side of the ball.

Because resources are limited, you are better off having a dominant unit (top 5 or 10 in NFL I believe was the idea) rather than spreading out and having middling units on both sides.

I found that topic very interesting and remember reading pros and cons to the idea. We are talking a long time ago though. Hope that helps.

[Richie]

You're being a bit disingenuous with the way you're portraying this. A good chunk of those were big contracts in the at the time of the SB win. You have to look at it in relative and contextually accurate terms.

Those are all also franchise, long-term guys. The only way to hold onto those kind of QB's is to pay them.

I don't really understand what your ideal approach to the QB position would be. Draft a QB, he wins you a title, you don't pay him and then restart from square #1? Repeat process?

1. Disingenuous? I've listed the % of cap each contract took up in the year of the super bowl win. It's literally the opposite of disingenuous.

2. At what point does someone become a franchise QB? Of the 8 players on that list, only Brees, Rodgers and Manning didn't win a ring on their rookie contract. For the remainder:

Brady is Brady.
Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.
Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.
Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.
Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

Which of those would you say was a franchise QB at the time they won their first ring? How well have they done after getting paid?

3. I think your language actually highlights the issue with QBs. "Draft a QB, he wins you a title". Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team? How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

What I'm saying is that the QB market is broken. Rodgers, on his second contract, didn't go over 7.8% of the team's cap from 2009 to 2012. From 2014 to now he hasn't gone below 12.2%. Drew Brees first contract with the Saints saw him between 5.9% to 8.7% from 2006 to 2009. From 2011 to now he's had one season below 11.1% and averaged 14.8% over 2013-2015.

Look at nearly all non rookie starting QBs now. They're up over 11% with many way above that. We call them "franchise" but they're just not good enough to compensate for the lack of talent that results from them taking up so much cap.

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract. There are 32 players in the league who average more than $15m per year and 16 of those are QBs. The top paid 13 players in the league are QBs.

Oh, and those numbers don't include Brees, Garoppolo, Keenum or Bradford.

The new CBA means that rolling over cap is much easier so that'll have an impact on the league overall but at some point a smart team is going to give a QB all of his guaranteed money in year 1. If Trubisky looks very good come 2020 we should pay him $60m in 2021 and write off a year if we have to. If he looks anything less than very good and wants $20 per year. Buh bye.

I edited out the part about you being disingenuous, after I re-read the post. However, now I DO think you are now actually being a tad disingenuous.

With the misrepresentation of the following QB's

Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.

Ben posted a 101.7 QB rating 62.4 CMP% 7 TD's 3 INT's 800+ yards and 8.7 Y/A during the 2005 playoff run, over 4 playoff games.

Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.

Eli Manning in those two Super Bowl runs played as good as any QB has in any post-season, EVER. Except for probably Joe Flacco, but we'll get to that.

8-0 15 TD's 2 INT's 2,100+ yards 8.1 Y/A 100 QB rating 63% CMP
Won both SB MVP's

Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.

That is a complete fallacy. People normally attribute great defense to Baltimore, and there was so much hype with Lewis with his retirement that people really have the vision of that team skewed. It was Flacco playing lights out which carried them. That's why he got his contract, if you remember.

Baltimore's defense ranked as follows in 2012:

20th against the run
17th against the pass
17th overall

Probably their two biggest wins in the post-season, vs Denver and vs SF in the Super Bowl were shootouts. 38-35 and 34-31 finals.

Flacco, on the other hand that post-season.

4-0 117.2 QB Rating 11 TD's 0 INT's 1,140 Yards 9.0 Y/A

Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

What does 2nd year pro have to do with anything? He was fantastic and posted a 107 QB rating, 3 TD's, no turnovers and a 64 CMP% in that run.

Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team?


All of them.

How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

Semantics? Why?

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract.

You are oversimplifying a complex situation. You have no idea if a good looking young QB will continue onto be elite or plateau.

If you committed to a guy, by drafting him and building around him. If he looks promising when his rookie contract is coming to a close. You pretty much have to have faith that you can continue to develop his talent.

In theory, your notions KIND OF hold-up. However, in reality, when facing the complexities of the situation with young franchise QB's... it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB. If you drafted one like we did with Trubisky, and he shows promise. Leads us to the post-season, plays at a pro bowl level... etc... by 2020.

You're really going to have a hard time making a case that we shouldn't commit to him further.

Those QB's you name. In almost all of those cases. They didn't pay for an "average" or "good" QB. They paid for what they believed they could develop that QB into. They bet, and they missed. You have to do it in the NFL with QB's.

These 25-26 year olds are a mystery. You are acting as though you can determine how good they are by that time. It's simply not the case.

[malk]

I edited out the part about you being disingenuous, after I re-read the post. However, now I DO think you are now actually being a tad disingenuous.

With the misrepresentation of the following QB's

First up, thanks for the discussion in good faith, this is exactly what I'm after here. One quick point:

Disingenuous, adjective:

Not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does.

This isn't true, the argument is entirely in good faith. I may miss data (for brevity or otherwise) or may well be flat out wrong. I'm not obfuscating to win internet points so it's a little frustrating to essentially be accused of doing so.

With that said, onto the discussion.

Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.

Ben posted a 101.7 QB rating 62.4 CMP% 7 TD's 3 INT's 800+ yards and 8.7 Y/A during the 2005 playoff run, over 4 playoff games.

Perhaps there's a terminology difference here that's causing some confusion, i.e. is your definition of a franchise QB different to mine? It's worth noting that I've listed these particular SB winning QBs precisely as you state:

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB.

Now I think there are some interesting things to tease out of your stats on each of those players, I'll do that below, but firstly my assertion isn't, per se, that these players are bad or even not great, but that they weren't "long-term, franchise QBs" at the time they won their first Superbowl. As it happens you could even include Brady in that. For me it's an important point that's worth focusing on, you've used those words now twice in this thread so I presume it stands for you too?

I'll expand on Roethlisberger here and the others below. When talking about defensive rankings I use points against unless otherwise noted.

Was he a franchise QB at the point of winning that first ring? A promising rookie yes but one that was ably helped by the best defence in football in his rookie year and 3rd in the SB winning year in his second. Those two regular seasons were promising and he looked good by QB rating (a stat I'm, incidentally) not a huge fan of). Interception rate was a little worrying but he was still wet behind the ears. In the postseason, his rookie year was poor, again understandably. His 2nd season was very good until the Super Bowl itself where he was flat out bad.

Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int
9	21	42.86	123	0	2

This, I posit, is not the stat line of a player that won the SB for their team. Apologies, that's not in good faith! My argument about whether a QB wins the SB for their team is different to that.

Roethlisberger's Steelers went on to win a second SB in 2008, the first year of his second contract. In that year he accounted for 6.9% of the cap, an entirely manageable figure. This second contract was largely ok (note that in comes in the same period as Brees and Rodgers getting rings), they get back to the SB in 2010 and make the playoffs in 2011. From 2013 on he takes a large chunk of their cap space in each year and, whilst getting to the playoffs regularly, they don't get back to the big game. Interestingly that's also a period where their defence falls off a cliff, not sorted until this year.

Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.

Eli Manning in those two Super Bowl runs played as good as any QB has in any post-season, EVER. Except for probably Joe Flacco, but we'll get to that.

8-0 15 TD's 2 INT's 2,100+ yards 8.1 Y/A 100 QB rating 63% CMP
Won both SB MVP's

Eli I can't explain and I'd argue is inexplicable. He's a completely unremarkable QB, well, actually, he's Jay Cutler with scheme continuity and luck! He did play extremely well in those two weird SB runs and there have only been two seasons in his entire career where he's had a good D to lean on. But none of this takes away from him not being what I'd consider a franchise QB in 2007. Before the playoffs stated he was a 4th year pro playing for his career having led the league in interceptions. I think he also was the league leader in interceptions since joining in 2004?

Plus the Giants gave him a terrible rookie deal that was largely back loaded, this mean that he was already up to 9.4% of their cap in 2007. Both 2007 and 2011 were fantastic years for football, I love it when something goes against the grain, it'd be incredibly boring to reduce the game to stats. However, if you're a GM planning to win rings then trying to replicate the Giants is a bad, bad idea.

Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.

That is a complete fallacy. People normally attribute great defense to Baltimore, and there was so much hype with Lewis with his retirement that people really have the vision of that team skewed. It was Flacco playing lights out which carried them. That's why he got his contract, if you remember.

Baltimore's defense ranked as follows in 2012:

20th against the run
17th against the pass
17th overall

Probably their two biggest wins in the post-season, vs Denver and vs SF in the Super Bowl were shootouts. 38-35 and 34-31 finals.

Flacco, on the other hand that post-season.

4-0 117.2 QB Rating 11 TD's 0 INT's 1,140 Yards 9.0 Y/A

Flacco's first 4 seasons in the league he played with the 3rd best defence. In the SB winning year the defence was 12th (in points, you're correct they were 17th in overall yards). Up to that point Flacco played safe football, 2:1 TD:INT, a couple of years around 63% passing, a couple a little below 60%. I recall lots of talk about whether the Ravens should resign him, including a little even after the SB win.

They extend to a big deal, haven't won their division since and have one playoff appearance, losing in the divisional round. Moral of the story, if a guy has one good postseason, maybe think before giving him the keys to the franchise.

Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

What does 2nd year pro have to do with anything? He was fantastic and posted a 107 QB rating, 3 TD's, no turnovers and a 64 CMP% in that run.

Being a second year pro means you're not a long-term, franchise QB. How could any player be by that point?

Now Wilson has had about the best introduction to football that any QB could ever envisage. Playing with the number 1 defence for the first four years of your career, who dropped to 3rd in your 5th. Don't get me wrong, Wilson is a good player, very good perhaps. It isn't that anyone could have come in and achieved what he did. But still, I think a few players could with all else (including contracts) being equal.

Before Wilson's extension I called that the Seahawks would go downhill and wouldn't get another ring. The effects of that contract started to really kick in in 2016 and their offence and defence are on a downward trend. Let's see how that continues.

Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team?


All of them.

How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

Semantics? Why?

This is slightly important to me as it is an example of the mythology of QBs and that feeds into their contracts.

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract.

You are oversimplifying a complex situation. You have no idea if a good looking young QB will continue onto be elite or plateau.

If you committed to a guy, by drafting him and building around him. If he looks promising when his rookie contract is coming to a close. You pretty much have to have faith that you can continue to develop his talent.

In theory, your notions KIND OF hold-up. However, in reality, when facing the complexities of the situation with young franchise QB's... it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB. If you drafted one like we did with Trubisky, and he shows promise. Leads us to the post-season, plays at a pro bowl level... etc... by 2020.

You're really going to have a hard time making a case that we shouldn't commit to him further.

Those QB's you name. In almost all of those cases. They didn't pay for an "average" or "good" QB. They paid for what they believed they could develop that QB into. They bet, and they missed. You have to do it in the NFL with QB's.

These 25-26 year olds are a mystery. You are acting as though you can determine how good they are by that time. It's simply not the case.

Your bottom line I believe I have demonstrated is false. You are however correct that teams don't pay for the current player but what they could become. They're typically bad bets and will remain so until some sanity returns to QB contracts. We're seeing with Foles and Keenum that, on the right teams, QBs can come in and compete whereas, I think I'm demonstrating, throwing 10-13+% of your cap at a QB over an extended period kills your chances unless that player ends up being genuinely hall of fame worthy. The problem isn't the players, it's that all adequate QBs in the league now get HoF contracts.

[Hematite]

I was just reading an article (can't find at the moment) that talked about this debate. In a nutshell it talks about how a good QB gives you a chance every year to win many games and go deep into the playoffs to have a chance at a SuperBowl (as malk has stated earlier) vs having an elite defense with a mediocre QB, which rarely gets you to the playoffs and takes everything going right for the team to win it all. Rarely do these teams threaten to get back to the Superbowl.

The game has evolved to the point that it takes a great QB most times to win it all. Yeah, many are overpaid, but that's the name of the game.

If I'm a GM, I'm playing the odds and paying my franchise QB (If I believe in him) to win me a bunch of games and at least threaten a deep playoff run most years!!

[malk]

If you can find that article Hema please do post it, I'd be interested to read it, not least as it sounds like a load of old bollocks :P

The nebulous notion of a "good" QB is a big part of the problem, along with this chance of Superbowl they supposedly bring. At the bottom of this post I'll list all the QBs that are paid more than $15m per year. All of them are "good" enough to warrant a massive contract and our brave Glennon at the bottom is still the 36th highest paid player in the entire league (by average per year). Only two players on that list have won the superbowl whilst taking 10% or more of the salary cap, Brady and the baffling Eli Manning.

And we can look at this another way, if a "good" QB gives you a chance every year what about Drew Brees? Since 2011 when his contract got big there have been seven seasons. He's led the league in passing yards in five of those seasons but only had a winning record in 3 of them. Overall he's at 0.568 over those seven seasons and the Saints have never made it out of the divisional round.

Matt Stafford is the highest paid player in football and has 3 wild card game losses as his crowning glory. He's 0.480 overall.

Matt Ryan plays winning football throughout his rookie contract but only two years into his second contract the Falcons dip to go 4-12, 6-10, 8-8.

Philip Rivers goes 0.688 before 2011 and 0.455 after.

I think this is pretty damning! What I need to do next is look at the records of non bust QBs on their rookie deals. Maybe also to include the first year of a big deal given the lag factor before running out of cap starts to bite?

Player	Team	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Avg. Guar./Year	% Guar.	Free Agency
Matt Stafford	Lions	$135,000,000	$27,000,000	$60,500,000	$12,100,000	44.80%	2023 UFA
Derek Carr	Raiders	$125,025,000	$25,005,000	$40,000,000	$8,000,000	32.00%	2023 UFA
Andrew Luck	Colts	$122,970,000	$24,594,000	$47,000,000	$9,400,000	38.20%	2022 UFA
Drew Brees	Saints	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	100.00%	2018 Void
Kirk Cousins	Redskins	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	100.00%	2018 UFA
Joe Flacco	Ravens	$66,400,000	$22,133,333	$44,000,000	$14,666,667	66.30%	2022 UFA
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$110,000,000	$22,000,000	$54,000,000	$10,800,000	49.10%	2020 UFA
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$87,600,000	$21,900,000	$31,700,000	$7,925,000	36.20%	2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$87,400,000	$21,850,000	$34,250,000	$8,562,500	39.20%	2020 UFA
Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$21,000,000	$21,000,000	$11,650,000	$11,650,000	55.50%	2019 UFA
Eli Manning	Giants	$84,000,000	$21,000,000	$36,500,000	$9,125,000	43.50%	2020 UFA
Philip Rivers	Chargers	$83,250,000	$20,812,500	$37,500,000	$9,375,000	45.00%	2020 UFA
Cam Newton	Panthers	$103,800,000	$20,760,000	$41,000,000	$8,200,000	39.50%	2021 UFA
Matt Ryan	Falcons	$103,750,000	$20,750,000	$42,000,000	$8,400,000	40.50%	2019 UFA
Tom Brady	Patriots	$41,000,000	$20,500,000	$28,000,000	$14,000,000	68.30%	2020 UFA
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$77,000,000	$19,250,000	$21,500,000	$5,375,000	27.90%	2021 UFA
Sam Bradford	Vikings	$35,000,000	$17,500,000	$22,000,000	$11,000,000	62.90%	2018 UFA
Alex Smith	Chiefs	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$19,000,000	$4,750,000	27.90%	2019 UFA
Andy Dalton	Bengals	$96,000,000	$16,000,000	$17,000,000	$2,833,333	17.70%	2021 UFA
Tyrod Taylor	Bills	$30,500,000	$15,250,000	$15,500,000	$7,750,000	50.80%	2019 Void
Mike Glennon	Bears	$45,000,000	$15,000,000	$18,500,000	$6,166,667	41.10%	2020 UFA

[Hematite]

If you can find that article Hema please do post it, I'd be interested to read it, not least as it sounds like a load of old bollocks :P

The nebulous notion of a "good" QB is a big part of the problem, along with this chance of Superbowl they supposedly bring. At the bottom of this post I'll list all the QBs that are paid more than $15m per year. All of them are "good" enough to warrant a massive contract and our brave Glennon at the bottom is still the 36th highest paid player in the entire league (by average per year). Only two players on that list have won the superbowl whilst taking 10% or more of the salary cap, Brady and the baffling Eli Manning.

And we can look at this another way, if a "good" QB gives you a chance every year what about Drew Brees? Since 2011 when his contract got big there have been seven seasons. He's led the league in passing yards in five of those seasons but only had a winning record in 3 of them. Overall he's at 0.568 over those seven seasons and the Saints have never made it out of the divisional round.

Matt Stafford is the highest paid player in football and has 3 wild card game losses as his crowning glory. He's 0.480 overall.

Matt Ryan plays winning football throughout his rookie contract but only two years into his second contract the Falcons dip to go 4-12, 6-10, 8-8.

Philip Rivers goes 0.688 before 2011 and 0.455 after.

I think this is pretty damning! What I need to do next is look at the records of non bust QBs on their rookie deals. Maybe also to include the first year of a big deal given the lag factor before running out of cap starts to bite?

Player	Team	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Avg. Guar./Year	% Guar.	Free Agency
Matt Stafford	Lions	$135,000,000	$27,000,000	$60,500,000	$12,100,000	44.80%	2023 UFA
Derek Carr	Raiders	$125,025,000	$25,005,000	$40,000,000	$8,000,000	32.00%	2023 UFA
Andrew Luck	Colts	$122,970,000	$24,594,000	$47,000,000	$9,400,000	38.20%	2022 UFA
Drew Brees	Saints	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	100.00%	2018 Void
Kirk Cousins	Redskins	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	100.00%	2018 UFA
Joe Flacco	Ravens	$66,400,000	$22,133,333	$44,000,000	$14,666,667	66.30%	2022 UFA
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$110,000,000	$22,000,000	$54,000,000	$10,800,000	49.10%	2020 UFA
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$87,600,000	$21,900,000	$31,700,000	$7,925,000	36.20%	2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$87,400,000	$21,850,000	$34,250,000	$8,562,500	39.20%	2020 UFA
Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$21,000,000	$21,000,000	$11,650,000	$11,650,000	55.50%	2019 UFA
Eli Manning	Giants	$84,000,000	$21,000,000	$36,500,000	$9,125,000	43.50%	2020 UFA
Philip Rivers	Chargers	$83,250,000	$20,812,500	$37,500,000	$9,375,000	45.00%	2020 UFA
Cam Newton	Panthers	$103,800,000	$20,760,000	$41,000,000	$8,200,000	39.50%	2021 UFA
Matt Ryan	Falcons	$103,750,000	$20,750,000	$42,000,000	$8,400,000	40.50%	2019 UFA
Tom Brady	Patriots	$41,000,000	$20,500,000	$28,000,000	$14,000,000	68.30%	2020 UFA
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$77,000,000	$19,250,000	$21,500,000	$5,375,000	27.90%	2021 UFA
Sam Bradford	Vikings	$35,000,000	$17,500,000	$22,000,000	$11,000,000	62.90%	2018 UFA
Alex Smith	Chiefs	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$19,000,000	$4,750,000	27.90%	2019 UFA
Andy Dalton	Bengals	$96,000,000	$16,000,000	$17,000,000	$2,833,333	17.70%	2021 UFA
Tyrod Taylor	Bills	$30,500,000	$15,250,000	$15,500,000	$7,750,000	50.80%	2019 Void
Mike Glennon	Bears	$45,000,000	$15,000,000	$18,500,000	$6,166,667	41.10%	2020 UFA

I totally agree that you are on the right track here, but in a simplified manner. An above average to great QB is a rare breed these days and therefore anybody that shows talent will get paid. As for whether or not it guarantees a chance at superbowls remains to be seen. However, the first GM that plays moneyball with the QB situation and releases a good QB over money, while that QB goes on to perennial playoff contender and superbowl winner, will be on the unemployment line very quickly.

Who knows, maybe you are on to something that revolutionizes the league one day with you pioneering the concept as GM of the Chicago Bears. I'll be rooting for you. Either way, I appreciate anybody that offers and idea that makes me think. Its few and far between these days!!

[malk]

However, the first GM that plays moneyball with the QB situation and releases a good QB over money, while that QB goes on to perennial playoff contender and superbowl winner, will be on the unemployment line very quickly.

This is probably the key bit. And I don't think the released QB would even need to be that good. A few playoff appearances to go with a bad year for the releasing GM and he'd be gone.

Hell, lots of owners would nix the release before it happened.

Perhaps the solution is to stop looking for the next great QB in the draft but instead to get the next Keenum type and sign them to a reasonable long-term deal? What offer does it take to get the 28 year old Case Keenum to sign a long-term deal with no great guarantees after the first year or two? Does he take 5 years $15m? 5 years $20? 3 years $10? Incentives?

This is what I was proposing with Barkley last year. Sign him to a long-term deal that doesn't commit us to much beyond backup money for a couple of years and see if a whole offseason in the system stops him being an interception machine. Worst case scenario is we've got a backup we don't love. A reasonable scenario is we've got a backup we do like. Best case scenario is one of the best contracts in football.

[Hematite]

This one's for you malk. https://sports.yahoo.com/jimmy-garoppol ... 00383.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[malk]

This one's for you malk. https://sports.yahoo.com/jimmy-garoppol ... 00383.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's not bad but they still make the mistake about the deal being front loaded.

[KOP_Snake]

I just read that the Bears highest paid player is.....

Mike Glennon.

I mean, I think that seems like how NOT to win in the salary cap era, is to pay Mike Glennon the most money on your team. But maybe I'm just being obtuse.