How to win in the salary cap era

[Hematite]

"You can also do a less extreme version of this to try to keep great non QBs earlier in the cycle. We could have done that now by signing someone like Bouye, giving them $25-30m in year one and keeping the cap cost down in future. You could do this once a year for a few years if necessary."

Pay me 25 million this year and 2 mil for each of the following years and I promise you, my effort will not change. No risk, I promise!

[RichH55]

Belatedly

Very good post Malk....Something to chew on for sure

[malk]

I'm saying Luck will never get a ring. Wilson will never get another, neither will Brees, Roethlisberger or Flacco. None of Rivers, Newton, Ryan, Tannehill nor Stafford will get there. Garropolo won't with the Patriots if they keep him on a normal (big) contract. Unfortunately Rodgers might but my money would be on Prescott, Carr or Mariota, or bloody Brady again.

Thought I might necro-bump this for the division championship games and for a bit of self promotion . Oh and also as it bodes well for our immediate future!

For the next Owl winning QB we're looking at Brady, Bortles, Foles (via Wentz) or Keenum (and the ghost of Bradford). Going back to my quoted section I'm a little disappointed that I didn't include Wentz on that list but he certainly meets the criteria and Foles is a classic journeyman with a good defence. Bortles explains my theory perfectly, Brady I called ($14m cap hit this year) and the Vikings are a little unusual. I could cram them into my theory as analogous to the 2008 Steelers with it being the first year of a big QB deal.

Perhaps what I should be taking from it is that it is giving out close to 15% of your cap over a 4 or five year period is what kills your chances at the whole damn thing.

Anyway. We've got Trubisky tied up for another 4 years on his rookie deal and will have around $50m in cap space even after bringing back Fuller, Amukamara, Meredith, Inman, Wright/Bellamy, Houston, O'Donnell, Jenkins and Acho/Jones at market rate deals (and cutting some highly paid dross). Hopefully Fuller is frontloaded and that would reduce cap space but still enough to make two or three splashes if Pace finds the right players.

What makes 2018 even more delicious is seeing Brady's cap hit jump to $22m. That's the first time the Patriots have had a player take up 10% or more of the cap since 2014. At 13.5% it's higher than any year since spotrac has records for lazy researchers.

We'll see what free agency brings but I can see it being another open year.

[The Marshall Plan]

I'm enjoying the potential of either Foles, Keenum, or Bortles getting a ring while Marino has zero. Out of all of those I would think Bortles would be more offensive to the football intelligensia so I'm hoping for that.

I will also be happy to see the GOAT get another just to silence any and all doubters once and for all.

I've said this on these boards already that I can't mentally handle the media gibberish about the Vikings in the Super Bowl, but if it gets Keenum a ring while Marino doesn't have one then it isn't all bad.

[Mikefive]

All I'm going to say is that if Jacksonville can get their hands on Alex Smith in the offseason, they need to do it.

[southdakbearfan]

Just for prospective let's look at each team's left 4 highest paid players.

Vikings:
Bradford - 18 million - 11.87 %
Rhodes - 10.8 million - 6.87%
Griffen - 8.6 million - 5.67%
Reiff - 8.5 million - 5.6 %

Eagles:
Jeffery - 10.75 million - 6.23%
Johnson - 9.8 million - 5.70%
Cox - 9.4 million - 5.45%
Curry - 9.0 million - 5.22%

Jaguars:
Jackson 15.5 million - 9.05%
Linder 11 million - 6.46%
Campbell 10.5 million- 6.13%
Church 8.0 million - 4.67%

Patriots:
Tom Brady 14.0 million - 8.55%
Nate Solder 11 million - 6.82%
Devin McCourty 10.9 million - 6.68%
Stephon Gilmore 8.5 million - 5.23%

[Richie]

For a proper representation... you should probably include both teams who played in the SB from each year. That will give you a larger sample-size.

Also, Rodgers and Brees contracts were big at that time. I get the feeling you are likely comparing them to today's generation of QB contracts. Every few years, for quite a while. They've inflated.

[malk]

For a proper representation... you should probably include both teams who played in the SB from each year. That will give you a larger sample-size.

Also, Rodgers and Brees contracts were big at that time. I get the feeling you are likely comparing them to today's generation of QB contracts. Every few years, for quite a while. They've inflated.

In truth is was my just being lazy. I'll see if I can carve out some time on the company dollar to put everything in a table including the losing Super Bowl team and cap percentages for that year.

Just quickly though, Rodgers' contract when he got his ring was 6 yr(s) / $63,520,000 so the average per year was around 8.5% of their cap but they front-loaded a little with 2008 and 2009 being $14m and $10.5m so from 2010-2012 his cap hits averaged $7.5m.

Brees in 2009 had a cap hit of $10,660,400, 8.7% of the Saints cap. That was coming off the back of three years with 5.9%, 6.4% and 7.8%.

So whilst I agree it would be useful to put those numbers in the context of other QBs in that era, they still aren't cap destroyers. It could be that that era was categorised by picking the right QB or some other factor but it don't believe it undermines my central assertion that, right now, giving a QB a huge slice of the cap is a bad thing for your team.

[Hematite]

Qb's are a different breed and I totally understand your philosphy of front loading their contracts. As for most of the rest, I wouldn't trust them that they would continue with 100% effort after the 1-2 year with a large front loaded contract.

You've definitely got an interesting thought process here!

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

All I'm going to say is that if Jacksonville can get their hands on Alex Smith in the offseason, they need to do it.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that Alex Smith's performance over the last few years has been a product of scheme and coaching more than anything else.

[mmmc_35]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

[malk]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional and. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

I'm confident this will be forced onto the league and can't wait for it. It isn't that I want to see that style of football but if it can be shown to be effective it'll bring down the cost of more traditional QBs who will then come back into vogue.

[Richie]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

Brady
Brady
Ben
Peyton
Eli
Ben
Brees
Rodgers
Eli
Flacco
Russell
Brady
Peyton
Brady
*2017 Brady favored to win again*

Those are the last 15 SB champion QB's.

All long-term franchise guys. I don't see any change forthcoming.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

Brady
Brady
Ben
Peyton
Eli
Ben
Brees
Rodgers
Eli
Flacco
Russell
Brady
Peyton
Brady
*2017 Brady favored to win again*

Those are the last 15 SB champion QB's.

All long-term franchise guys. I don't see any change forthcoming.

Thanks for the post Richie.

I will say it AGAIN for the eleventeenth time. If you want to win in the NFL, win championships, you need stability with these three positions in your organization; GM - HC - QB. If you have that for an extended period of time. You are going to win a lot more games than you lose. The ONLY exception I can think of is Cincinnati.

[mmmc_35]

Yes devaluing the QB position likely won't happen. Even of someone tried they would probably get canned before they built up the team.

[The Marshall Plan]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

Brady
Brady
Ben
Peyton
Eli
Ben
Brees
Rodgers
Eli
Flacco
Russell
Brady
Peyton
Brady
*2017 Brady favored to win again*

Those are the last 15 SB champion QB's.

All long-term franchise guys. I don't see any change forthcoming.

Yep. Not a chance of marginalizing the QB position with the obvious importance and making teammates better through ball placement and leadership. The expanding salary cap and rarity of true franchise QBs means the salaries won't go down either.

If you could have the best player in the league on your team for any one position; you choose QB.

[malk]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

Brady
Brady
Ben
Peyton
Eli
Ben
Brees
Rodgers
Eli
Flacco
Russell
Brady
Peyton
Brady
*2017 Brady favored to win again*

Those are the last 15 SB champion QB's.

All long-term franchise guys. I don't see any change forthcoming.

Thanks for the post Richie.

I will say it AGAIN for the eleventeenth time. If you want to win in the NFL, win championships, you need stability with these three positions in your organization; GM - HC - QB. If you have that for an extended period of time. You are going to win a lot more games than you lose. The ONLY exception I can think of is Cincinnati.

This is outlined in the first post in this thread but to recap.

1. Just winning isn't good enough, I want championships.
2. At the point those QBs won they weren't all long term franchise guys.
3. Most long term franchise guys haven't got a ring.

Year	QB	Type	Cap number	% Cap
2003	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$3,318,750	4.4
2004	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$5,058,750	6.3
2005	Ben	Rookie	$4,220,250	4.5
2006	Peyton	HOF/GOAT	$10,566,668	10.4
2007	Eli	Rookie	$10,046,666	9.2
2008	Ben	1st year of big contract	$7,970,000	6.9
2009	Brees	HOF	$10,660,400	8.7
2010	Rodgers	HOF/GOAT	$6,500,000	5.4
2011	Eli	OMG	$14,100,000	11.8
2012	Flacco	Rookie	$8,000,000	6.6
2013	Russell	Rookie	$681,085	0.6
2014	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$14,800,000	11.1
2015	Peyton	HOF/GOAT	$17,500,000	12.2
2016	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$13,764,706	8.9
			$9,084,805	7.6

Looking at that snapshot of data. Teams should determine whether their QB is going to be hall of fame worthy during their rookie contract and, if not, bin them off and try again.

Let's have a look at some of the QBs that won't be winning anyhting this year:

Stafford, Carr, Luck, Brees, Cousins, Flacco, Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Manning, Rivers, Newton, Ryan, Tannehill, Smith, Dalton, Taylor, Glennon. They all make $15m per year or more.

From that list the only one I think has a shot of winning a championship in the next few years is Rodgers. As likely are Wentz, Goff, Mariota etc.

Do I think NFL teams will start making better choices soon? Nope, the league is conservative to a fault. Do I think they should? Of course!

Does this mean I'd advocate cutting Trubisky if he plays like Derek Carr and wants an equivalent contract? Why I think it does.

[Richie]

I have always been interested in a concept of devaluing the QB position. If every couple of years you draft a QB who can run college style offenses. 2 reads and run style. Instead of trying to find or mold traditional QB. Have an offense that can immediately suppliment the QB and have a all star group around him.

Brady
Brady
Ben
Peyton
Eli
Ben
Brees
Rodgers
Eli
Flacco
Russell
Brady
Peyton
Brady
*2017 Brady favored to win again*

Those are the last 15 SB champion QB's.

All long-term franchise guys. I don't see any change forthcoming.

Thanks for the post Richie.

I will say it AGAIN for the eleventeenth time. If you want to win in the NFL, win championships, you need stability with these three positions in your organization; GM - HC - QB. If you have that for an extended period of time. You are going to win a lot more games than you lose. The ONLY exception I can think of is Cincinnati.

This is outlined in the first post in this thread but to recap.

1. Just winning isn't good enough, I want championships.
2. At the point those QBs won they weren't all long term franchise guys.
3. Most long term franchise guys haven't got a ring.

Year	QB	Type	Cap number	% Cap
2003	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$3,318,750	4.4
2004	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$5,058,750	6.3
2005	Ben	Rookie	$4,220,250	4.5
2006	Peyton	HOF/GOAT	$10,566,668	10.4
2007	Eli	Rookie	$10,046,666	9.2
2008	Ben	1st year of big contract	$7,970,000	6.9
2009	Brees	HOF	$10,660,400	8.7
2010	Rodgers	HOF/GOAT	$6,500,000	5.4
2011	Eli	OMG	$14,100,000	11.8
2012	Flacco	Rookie	$8,000,000	6.6
2013	Russell	Rookie	$681,085	0.6
2014	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$14,800,000	11.1
2015	Peyton	HOF/GOAT	$17,500,000	12.2
2016	Brady	HOF/GOAT	$13,764,706	8.9
			$9,084,805	7.6

Looking at that snapshot of data. Teams should determine whether their QB is going to be hall of fame worthy during their rookie contract and, if not, bin them off and try again.

Let's have a look at some of the QBs that won't be winning anyhting this year:

Stafford, Carr, Luck, Brees, Cousins, Flacco, Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Manning, Rivers, Newton, Ryan, Tannehill, Smith, Dalton, Taylor, Glennon. They all make $15m per year or more.

From that list the only one I think has a shot of winning a championship in the next few years is Rodgers. As likely are Wentz, Goff, Mariota etc.

Do I think NFL teams will start making better choices soon? Nope, the league is conservative to a fault. Do I think they should? Of course!

Does this mean I'd advocate cutting Trubisky if he plays like Derek Carr and wants an equivalent contract? Why I think it does.

The bottom-line is that those are all franchise, long-term guys. The only way to hold onto those kind of QB's is to pay them.

No one is saying all of those guys win titles, but we're saying that in this era. Those are typically the only guys that do.

I don't really understand what your ideal approach to the QB position would be. Draft a QB, he wins you a title, you don't pay him and then restart from square #1? Repeat process?

You are also acting like you will always have a clear indicator of what/who a QB is by the end of his rookie deal. Many look like potential HOF guys after 3-4 years. The problem is, you don't know who is going to take that next step and who is going to plateau.

[malk]

You're being a bit disingenuous with the way you're portraying this. A good chunk of those were big contracts in the at the time of the SB win. You have to look at it in relative and contextually accurate terms.

Those are all also franchise, long-term guys. The only way to hold onto those kind of QB's is to pay them.

I don't really understand what your ideal approach to the QB position would be. Draft a QB, he wins you a title, you don't pay him and then restart from square #1? Repeat process?

1. Disingenuous? I've listed the % of cap each contract took up in the year of the super bowl win. It's literally the opposite of disingenuous.

2. At what point does someone become a franchise QB? Of the 8 players on that list, only Brees, Rodgers and Manning didn't win a ring on their rookie contract. For the remainder:

Brady is Brady.
Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.
Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.
Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.
Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

Which of those would you say was a franchise QB at the time they won their first ring? How well have they done after getting paid?

3. I think your language actually highlights the issue with QBs. "Draft a QB, he wins you a title". Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team? How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

What I'm saying is that the QB market is broken. Rodgers, on his second contract, didn't go over 7.8% of the team's cap from 2009 to 2012. From 2014 to now he hasn't gone below 12.2%. Drew Brees first contract with the Saints saw him between 5.9% to 8.7% from 2006 to 2009. From 2011 to now he's had one season below 11.1% and averaged 14.8% over 2013-2015.

Look at nearly all non rookie starting QBs now. They're up over 11% with many way above that. We call them "franchise" but they're just not good enough to compensate for the lack of talent that results from them taking up so much cap.

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract. There are 32 players in the league who average more than $15m per year and 16 of those are QBs. The top paid 13 players in the league are QBs.

Oh, and those numbers don't include Brees, Garoppolo, Keenum or Bradford.

The new CBA means that rolling over cap is much easier so that'll have an impact on the league overall but at some point a smart team is going to give a QB all of his guaranteed money in year 1. If Trubisky looks very good come 2020 we should pay him $60m in 2021 and write off a year if we have to. If he looks anything less than very good and wants $20 per year. Buh bye.

[Middleguard]

I like what you're saying, and I think that's because I get it. But what does a team do about their fans? I know nothing about Ravens fans, but what do you think would have happened if the Ravens hadn't re-signed Flacco (just as an example)?

[Hematite]

This whole conversation brings back memories of the Dominant Unit Theory proposed from somebody from the old chicago bears message board. Can't remember the posters name, but it sure made for good conversations!

[Middleguard]

Can't find anything on that. Can you elaborate in 25 words or less so I can see if it rings any bells or opens any links?

[Hematite]

Can't find anything on that. Can you elaborate in 25 words or less so I can see if it rings any bells or opens any links?

From what I remember from so long ago. The idea was based on having 1 side of the ball dominant to carry the other side of the ball.

Because resources are limited, you are better off having a dominant unit (top 5 or 10 in NFL I believe was the idea) rather than spreading out and having middling units on both sides.

I found that topic very interesting and remember reading pros and cons to the idea. We are talking a long time ago though. Hope that helps.

[Richie]

You're being a bit disingenuous with the way you're portraying this. A good chunk of those were big contracts in the at the time of the SB win. You have to look at it in relative and contextually accurate terms.

Those are all also franchise, long-term guys. The only way to hold onto those kind of QB's is to pay them.

I don't really understand what your ideal approach to the QB position would be. Draft a QB, he wins you a title, you don't pay him and then restart from square #1? Repeat process?

1. Disingenuous? I've listed the % of cap each contract took up in the year of the super bowl win. It's literally the opposite of disingenuous.

2. At what point does someone become a franchise QB? Of the 8 players on that list, only Brees, Rodgers and Manning didn't win a ring on their rookie contract. For the remainder:

Brady is Brady.
Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.
Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.
Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.
Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

Which of those would you say was a franchise QB at the time they won their first ring? How well have they done after getting paid?

3. I think your language actually highlights the issue with QBs. "Draft a QB, he wins you a title". Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team? How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

What I'm saying is that the QB market is broken. Rodgers, on his second contract, didn't go over 7.8% of the team's cap from 2009 to 2012. From 2014 to now he hasn't gone below 12.2%. Drew Brees first contract with the Saints saw him between 5.9% to 8.7% from 2006 to 2009. From 2011 to now he's had one season below 11.1% and averaged 14.8% over 2013-2015.

Look at nearly all non rookie starting QBs now. They're up over 11% with many way above that. We call them "franchise" but they're just not good enough to compensate for the lack of talent that results from them taking up so much cap.

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract. There are 32 players in the league who average more than $15m per year and 16 of those are QBs. The top paid 13 players in the league are QBs.

Oh, and those numbers don't include Brees, Garoppolo, Keenum or Bradford.

The new CBA means that rolling over cap is much easier so that'll have an impact on the league overall but at some point a smart team is going to give a QB all of his guaranteed money in year 1. If Trubisky looks very good come 2020 we should pay him $60m in 2021 and write off a year if we have to. If he looks anything less than very good and wants $20 per year. Buh bye.

I edited out the part about you being disingenuous, after I re-read the post. However, now I DO think you are now actually being a tad disingenuous.

With the misrepresentation of the following QB's

Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.

Ben posted a 101.7 QB rating 62.4 CMP% 7 TD's 3 INT's 800+ yards and 8.7 Y/A during the 2005 playoff run, over 4 playoff games.

Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.

Eli Manning in those two Super Bowl runs played as good as any QB has in any post-season, EVER. Except for probably Joe Flacco, but we'll get to that.

8-0 15 TD's 2 INT's 2,100+ yards 8.1 Y/A 100 QB rating 63% CMP
Won both SB MVP's

Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.

That is a complete fallacy. People normally attribute great defense to Baltimore, and there was so much hype with Lewis with his retirement that people really have the vision of that team skewed. It was Flacco playing lights out which carried them. That's why he got his contract, if you remember.

Baltimore's defense ranked as follows in 2012:

20th against the run
17th against the pass
17th overall

Probably their two biggest wins in the post-season, vs Denver and vs SF in the Super Bowl were shootouts. 38-35 and 34-31 finals.

Flacco, on the other hand that post-season.

4-0 117.2 QB Rating 11 TD's 0 INT's 1,140 Yards 9.0 Y/A

Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

What does 2nd year pro have to do with anything? He was fantastic and posted a 107 QB rating, 3 TD's, no turnovers and a 64 CMP% in that run.

Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team?


All of them.

How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

Semantics? Why?

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract.

You are oversimplifying a complex situation. You have no idea if a good looking young QB will continue onto be elite or plateau.

If you committed to a guy, by drafting him and building around him. If he looks promising when his rookie contract is coming to a close. You pretty much have to have faith that you can continue to develop his talent.

In theory, your notions KIND OF hold-up. However, in reality, when facing the complexities of the situation with young franchise QB's... it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB. If you drafted one like we did with Trubisky, and he shows promise. Leads us to the post-season, plays at a pro bowl level... etc... by 2020.

You're really going to have a hard time making a case that we shouldn't commit to him further.

Those QB's you name. In almost all of those cases. They didn't pay for an "average" or "good" QB. They paid for what they believed they could develop that QB into. They bet, and they missed. You have to do it in the NFL with QB's.

These 25-26 year olds are a mystery. You are acting as though you can determine how good they are by that time. It's simply not the case.

[malk]

I edited out the part about you being disingenuous, after I re-read the post. However, now I DO think you are now actually being a tad disingenuous.

With the misrepresentation of the following QB's

First up, thanks for the discussion in good faith, this is exactly what I'm after here. One quick point:

Disingenuous, adjective:

Not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does.

This isn't true, the argument is entirely in good faith. I may miss data (for brevity or otherwise) or may well be flat out wrong. I'm not obfuscating to win internet points so it's a little frustrating to essentially be accused of doing so.

With that said, onto the discussion.

Roethlisberger didn't throw for 20+ touchdowns until his 4th season and he already had ridden that Steelers defence to a ring by then.

Ben posted a 101.7 QB rating 62.4 CMP% 7 TD's 3 INT's 800+ yards and 8.7 Y/A during the 2005 playoff run, over 4 playoff games.

Perhaps there's a terminology difference here that's causing some confusion, i.e. is your definition of a franchise QB different to mine? It's worth noting that I've listed these particular SB winning QBs precisely as you state:

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB.

Now I think there are some interesting things to tease out of your stats on each of those players, I'll do that below, but firstly my assertion isn't, per se, that these players are bad or even not great, but that they weren't "long-term, franchise QBs" at the time they won their first Superbowl. As it happens you could even include Brady in that. For me it's an important point that's worth focusing on, you've used those words now twice in this thread so I presume it stands for you too?

I'll expand on Roethlisberger here and the others below. When talking about defensive rankings I use points against unless otherwise noted.

Was he a franchise QB at the point of winning that first ring? A promising rookie yes but one that was ably helped by the best defence in football in his rookie year and 3rd in the SB winning year in his second. Those two regular seasons were promising and he looked good by QB rating (a stat I'm, incidentally) not a huge fan of). Interception rate was a little worrying but he was still wet behind the ears. In the postseason, his rookie year was poor, again understandably. His 2nd season was very good until the Super Bowl itself where he was flat out bad.

Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int
9	21	42.86	123	0	2

This, I posit, is not the stat line of a player that won the SB for their team. Apologies, that's not in good faith! My argument about whether a QB wins the SB for their team is different to that.

Roethlisberger's Steelers went on to win a second SB in 2008, the first year of his second contract. In that year he accounted for 6.9% of the cap, an entirely manageable figure. This second contract was largely ok (note that in comes in the same period as Brees and Rodgers getting rings), they get back to the SB in 2010 and make the playoffs in 2011. From 2013 on he takes a large chunk of their cap space in each year and, whilst getting to the playoffs regularly, they don't get back to the big game. Interestingly that's also a period where their defence falls off a cliff, not sorted until this year.

Eli Manning had thrown 64 interceptions in 55 regular season games at the point of his first SB win.

Eli Manning in those two Super Bowl runs played as good as any QB has in any post-season, EVER. Except for probably Joe Flacco, but we'll get to that.

8-0 15 TD's 2 INT's 2,100+ yards 8.1 Y/A 100 QB rating 63% CMP
Won both SB MVP's

Eli I can't explain and I'd argue is inexplicable. He's a completely unremarkable QB, well, actually, he's Jay Cutler with scheme continuity and luck! He did play extremely well in those two weird SB runs and there have only been two seasons in his entire career where he's had a good D to lean on. But none of this takes away from him not being what I'd consider a franchise QB in 2007. Before the playoffs stated he was a 4th year pro playing for his career having led the league in interceptions. I think he also was the league leader in interceptions since joining in 2004?

Plus the Giants gave him a terrible rookie deal that was largely back loaded, this mean that he was already up to 9.4% of their cap in 2007. Both 2007 and 2011 were fantastic years for football, I love it when something goes against the grain, it'd be incredibly boring to reduce the game to stats. However, if you're a GM planning to win rings then trying to replicate the Giants is a bad, bad idea.

Flacco was only a little better than a journeyman QB, riding a good defence.

That is a complete fallacy. People normally attribute great defense to Baltimore, and there was so much hype with Lewis with his retirement that people really have the vision of that team skewed. It was Flacco playing lights out which carried them. That's why he got his contract, if you remember.

Baltimore's defense ranked as follows in 2012:

20th against the run
17th against the pass
17th overall

Probably their two biggest wins in the post-season, vs Denver and vs SF in the Super Bowl were shootouts. 38-35 and 34-31 finals.

Flacco, on the other hand that post-season.

4-0 117.2 QB Rating 11 TD's 0 INT's 1,140 Yards 9.0 Y/A

Flacco's first 4 seasons in the league he played with the 3rd best defence. In the SB winning year the defence was 12th (in points, you're correct they were 17th in overall yards). Up to that point Flacco played safe football, 2:1 TD:INT, a couple of years around 63% passing, a couple a little below 60%. I recall lots of talk about whether the Ravens should resign him, including a little even after the SB win.

They extend to a big deal, haven't won their division since and have one playoff appearance, losing in the divisional round. Moral of the story, if a guy has one good postseason, maybe think before giving him the keys to the franchise.

Wilson was a 2nd year pro playing with the best defence in football at the time.

What does 2nd year pro have to do with anything? He was fantastic and posted a 107 QB rating, 3 TD's, no turnovers and a 64 CMP% in that run.

Being a second year pro means you're not a long-term, franchise QB. How could any player be by that point?

Now Wilson has had about the best introduction to football that any QB could ever envisage. Playing with the number 1 defence for the first four years of your career, who dropped to 3rd in your 5th. Don't get me wrong, Wilson is a good player, very good perhaps. It isn't that anyone could have come in and achieved what he did. But still, I think a few players could with all else (including contracts) being equal.

Before Wilson's extension I called that the Seahawks would go downhill and wouldn't get another ring. The effects of that contract started to really kick in in 2016 and their offence and defence are on a downward trend. Let's see how that continues.

Which of Roethlisberger, Manning, Flacco and Wilson won the SB for their team?


All of them.

How about win a title with a QB you drafted?

Semantics? Why?

This is slightly important to me as it is an example of the mythology of QBs and that feeds into their contracts.

So what's my ideal approach? Don't pay average to good QBs "starter" QB money on a standard contract.

You are oversimplifying a complex situation. You have no idea if a good looking young QB will continue onto be elite or plateau.

If you committed to a guy, by drafting him and building around him. If he looks promising when his rookie contract is coming to a close. You pretty much have to have faith that you can continue to develop his talent.

In theory, your notions KIND OF hold-up. However, in reality, when facing the complexities of the situation with young franchise QB's... it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Nobody has won a Super Bowl since the turn of the millennium with a QB who wasn't a long-term, franchise QB. If you drafted one like we did with Trubisky, and he shows promise. Leads us to the post-season, plays at a pro bowl level... etc... by 2020.

You're really going to have a hard time making a case that we shouldn't commit to him further.

Those QB's you name. In almost all of those cases. They didn't pay for an "average" or "good" QB. They paid for what they believed they could develop that QB into. They bet, and they missed. You have to do it in the NFL with QB's.

These 25-26 year olds are a mystery. You are acting as though you can determine how good they are by that time. It's simply not the case.

Your bottom line I believe I have demonstrated is false. You are however correct that teams don't pay for the current player but what they could become. They're typically bad bets and will remain so until some sanity returns to QB contracts. We're seeing with Foles and Keenum that, on the right teams, QBs can come in and compete whereas, I think I'm demonstrating, throwing 10-13+% of your cap at a QB over an extended period kills your chances unless that player ends up being genuinely hall of fame worthy. The problem isn't the players, it's that all adequate QBs in the league now get HoF contracts.

[Hematite]

I was just reading an article (can't find at the moment) that talked about this debate. In a nutshell it talks about how a good QB gives you a chance every year to win many games and go deep into the playoffs to have a chance at a SuperBowl (as malk has stated earlier) vs having an elite defense with a mediocre QB, which rarely gets you to the playoffs and takes everything going right for the team to win it all. Rarely do these teams threaten to get back to the Superbowl.

The game has evolved to the point that it takes a great QB most times to win it all. Yeah, many are overpaid, but that's the name of the game.

If I'm a GM, I'm playing the odds and paying my franchise QB (If I believe in him) to win me a bunch of games and at least threaten a deep playoff run most years!!

[malk]

If you can find that article Hema please do post it, I'd be interested to read it, not least as it sounds like a load of old bollocks :P

The nebulous notion of a "good" QB is a big part of the problem, along with this chance of Superbowl they supposedly bring. At the bottom of this post I'll list all the QBs that are paid more than $15m per year. All of them are "good" enough to warrant a massive contract and our brave Glennon at the bottom is still the 36th highest paid player in the entire league (by average per year). Only two players on that list have won the superbowl whilst taking 10% or more of the salary cap, Brady and the baffling Eli Manning.

And we can look at this another way, if a "good" QB gives you a chance every year what about Drew Brees? Since 2011 when his contract got big there have been seven seasons. He's led the league in passing yards in five of those seasons but only had a winning record in 3 of them. Overall he's at 0.568 over those seven seasons and the Saints have never made it out of the divisional round.

Matt Stafford is the highest paid player in football and has 3 wild card game losses as his crowning glory. He's 0.480 overall.

Matt Ryan plays winning football throughout his rookie contract but only two years into his second contract the Falcons dip to go 4-12, 6-10, 8-8.

Philip Rivers goes 0.688 before 2011 and 0.455 after.

I think this is pretty damning! What I need to do next is look at the records of non bust QBs on their rookie deals. Maybe also to include the first year of a big deal given the lag factor before running out of cap starts to bite?

Player	Team	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Avg. Guar./Year	% Guar.	Free Agency
Matt Stafford	Lions	$135,000,000	$27,000,000	$60,500,000	$12,100,000	44.80%	2023 UFA
Derek Carr	Raiders	$125,025,000	$25,005,000	$40,000,000	$8,000,000	32.00%	2023 UFA
Andrew Luck	Colts	$122,970,000	$24,594,000	$47,000,000	$9,400,000	38.20%	2022 UFA
Drew Brees	Saints	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	100.00%	2018 Void
Kirk Cousins	Redskins	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	100.00%	2018 UFA
Joe Flacco	Ravens	$66,400,000	$22,133,333	$44,000,000	$14,666,667	66.30%	2022 UFA
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$110,000,000	$22,000,000	$54,000,000	$10,800,000	49.10%	2020 UFA
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$87,600,000	$21,900,000	$31,700,000	$7,925,000	36.20%	2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$87,400,000	$21,850,000	$34,250,000	$8,562,500	39.20%	2020 UFA
Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$21,000,000	$21,000,000	$11,650,000	$11,650,000	55.50%	2019 UFA
Eli Manning	Giants	$84,000,000	$21,000,000	$36,500,000	$9,125,000	43.50%	2020 UFA
Philip Rivers	Chargers	$83,250,000	$20,812,500	$37,500,000	$9,375,000	45.00%	2020 UFA
Cam Newton	Panthers	$103,800,000	$20,760,000	$41,000,000	$8,200,000	39.50%	2021 UFA
Matt Ryan	Falcons	$103,750,000	$20,750,000	$42,000,000	$8,400,000	40.50%	2019 UFA
Tom Brady	Patriots	$41,000,000	$20,500,000	$28,000,000	$14,000,000	68.30%	2020 UFA
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$77,000,000	$19,250,000	$21,500,000	$5,375,000	27.90%	2021 UFA
Sam Bradford	Vikings	$35,000,000	$17,500,000	$22,000,000	$11,000,000	62.90%	2018 UFA
Alex Smith	Chiefs	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$19,000,000	$4,750,000	27.90%	2019 UFA
Andy Dalton	Bengals	$96,000,000	$16,000,000	$17,000,000	$2,833,333	17.70%	2021 UFA
Tyrod Taylor	Bills	$30,500,000	$15,250,000	$15,500,000	$7,750,000	50.80%	2019 Void
Mike Glennon	Bears	$45,000,000	$15,000,000	$18,500,000	$6,166,667	41.10%	2020 UFA

[Hematite]

If you can find that article Hema please do post it, I'd be interested to read it, not least as it sounds like a load of old bollocks :P

The nebulous notion of a "good" QB is a big part of the problem, along with this chance of Superbowl they supposedly bring. At the bottom of this post I'll list all the QBs that are paid more than $15m per year. All of them are "good" enough to warrant a massive contract and our brave Glennon at the bottom is still the 36th highest paid player in the entire league (by average per year). Only two players on that list have won the superbowl whilst taking 10% or more of the salary cap, Brady and the baffling Eli Manning.

And we can look at this another way, if a "good" QB gives you a chance every year what about Drew Brees? Since 2011 when his contract got big there have been seven seasons. He's led the league in passing yards in five of those seasons but only had a winning record in 3 of them. Overall he's at 0.568 over those seven seasons and the Saints have never made it out of the divisional round.

Matt Stafford is the highest paid player in football and has 3 wild card game losses as his crowning glory. He's 0.480 overall.

Matt Ryan plays winning football throughout his rookie contract but only two years into his second contract the Falcons dip to go 4-12, 6-10, 8-8.

Philip Rivers goes 0.688 before 2011 and 0.455 after.

I think this is pretty damning! What I need to do next is look at the records of non bust QBs on their rookie deals. Maybe also to include the first year of a big deal given the lag factor before running out of cap starts to bite?

Player	Team	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Avg. Guar./Year	% Guar.	Free Agency
Matt Stafford	Lions	$135,000,000	$27,000,000	$60,500,000	$12,100,000	44.80%	2023 UFA
Derek Carr	Raiders	$125,025,000	$25,005,000	$40,000,000	$8,000,000	32.00%	2023 UFA
Andrew Luck	Colts	$122,970,000	$24,594,000	$47,000,000	$9,400,000	38.20%	2022 UFA
Drew Brees	Saints	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	$24,250,000	100.00%	2018 Void
Kirk Cousins	Redskins	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	$23,943,600	100.00%	2018 UFA
Joe Flacco	Ravens	$66,400,000	$22,133,333	$44,000,000	$14,666,667	66.30%	2022 UFA
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$110,000,000	$22,000,000	$54,000,000	$10,800,000	49.10%	2020 UFA
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$87,600,000	$21,900,000	$31,700,000	$7,925,000	36.20%	2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$87,400,000	$21,850,000	$34,250,000	$8,562,500	39.20%	2020 UFA
Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$21,000,000	$21,000,000	$11,650,000	$11,650,000	55.50%	2019 UFA
Eli Manning	Giants	$84,000,000	$21,000,000	$36,500,000	$9,125,000	43.50%	2020 UFA
Philip Rivers	Chargers	$83,250,000	$20,812,500	$37,500,000	$9,375,000	45.00%	2020 UFA
Cam Newton	Panthers	$103,800,000	$20,760,000	$41,000,000	$8,200,000	39.50%	2021 UFA
Matt Ryan	Falcons	$103,750,000	$20,750,000	$42,000,000	$8,400,000	40.50%	2019 UFA
Tom Brady	Patriots	$41,000,000	$20,500,000	$28,000,000	$14,000,000	68.30%	2020 UFA
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$77,000,000	$19,250,000	$21,500,000	$5,375,000	27.90%	2021 UFA
Sam Bradford	Vikings	$35,000,000	$17,500,000	$22,000,000	$11,000,000	62.90%	2018 UFA
Alex Smith	Chiefs	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$19,000,000	$4,750,000	27.90%	2019 UFA
Andy Dalton	Bengals	$96,000,000	$16,000,000	$17,000,000	$2,833,333	17.70%	2021 UFA
Tyrod Taylor	Bills	$30,500,000	$15,250,000	$15,500,000	$7,750,000	50.80%	2019 Void
Mike Glennon	Bears	$45,000,000	$15,000,000	$18,500,000	$6,166,667	41.10%	2020 UFA

I totally agree that you are on the right track here, but in a simplified manner. An above average to great QB is a rare breed these days and therefore anybody that shows talent will get paid. As for whether or not it guarantees a chance at superbowls remains to be seen. However, the first GM that plays moneyball with the QB situation and releases a good QB over money, while that QB goes on to perennial playoff contender and superbowl winner, will be on the unemployment line very quickly.

Who knows, maybe you are on to something that revolutionizes the league one day with you pioneering the concept as GM of the Chicago Bears. I'll be rooting for you. Either way, I appreciate anybody that offers and idea that makes me think. Its few and far between these days!!

[malk]

However, the first GM that plays moneyball with the QB situation and releases a good QB over money, while that QB goes on to perennial playoff contender and superbowl winner, will be on the unemployment line very quickly.

This is probably the key bit. And I don't think the released QB would even need to be that good. A few playoff appearances to go with a bad year for the releasing GM and he'd be gone.

Hell, lots of owners would nix the release before it happened.

Perhaps the solution is to stop looking for the next great QB in the draft but instead to get the next Keenum type and sign them to a reasonable long-term deal? What offer does it take to get the 28 year old Case Keenum to sign a long-term deal with no great guarantees after the first year or two? Does he take 5 years $15m? 5 years $20? 3 years $10? Incentives?

This is what I was proposing with Barkley last year. Sign him to a long-term deal that doesn't commit us to much beyond backup money for a couple of years and see if a whole offseason in the system stops him being an interception machine. Worst case scenario is we've got a backup we don't love. A reasonable scenario is we've got a backup we do like. Best case scenario is one of the best contracts in football.

[Hematite]

This one's for you malk. https://sports.yahoo.com/jimmy-garoppol ... 00383.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;