Predict the Bears 2017 Record - Pre-TC Edition

[Mikefive]

I know, it's early. But this place is dead and this topic may wake things up.

Predict the 2017 Bears regular season record and explain the thinking that goes into your prediction.

[Boris13c]

[Mikefive]

I'm saying 6-10.

That's a 3 game improvement. Why? For 2 consecutive years, injuries have been just devastating. That seems on the fluky side to me. Maybe it's John Fox's coaching style and it will continue to be that way. But I tend to think that we can't lead the league in injuries (or get close to it) 3 years in a row.

Also on the plus side, I think our defense will improve this year. I don't think we're a championship defense yet and there are still issues. But having Goldman back along with improvement from sophomore Bullard will help. And I'm assuming we're better at S. At OLB, I'm scared to death of McPhee's knees and Floyd's concussions. I hope I"m wrong about those. But we should be better as long as we're not on the field for 40 minutes a game.

I expect our offense to start the season out as a disaster. We have virtually all new guys at QB and WR, so we start with zero continuity. The first 5-6 games will be a complete mess in the passing game. Defenses will fill the box to stop Howard and pin their ears back off the edge against our mediocre OTs on 3rd and long and let Glennon John Shoop us to death with 5 yard dumpoffs before punting. We may not win a game before the bye without defensive or STs scores.

Keep in mind that unless Victor Cruz finds a wayback machine, we don't have ANY receiver that is special. And our only QB that COULD be special isn't going to be this year. So our passing game is just going to be mediocre at best. That's just the reality.

Things will improve in the 2nd half of the season. Both our offense and defense should improve as the year wears on. But our record will suck in the first half and the pressure will be off as Glennon gets in better sync with our WRs.

Did I say 6 wins or 5?

[wab]

4-12

[Atkins&Rebel]

8-8

I think our offense is built for the talent we have. Glennon just needs to not completely suck, and we'll score 3 TD's a game and move the ball. We'll likely line up a majority of the time in single back, 3-wide with a TE. Maybe to spice things up send, in a TE in the 3-wide package. I think rubs and screens with be a staple to guys like Wheaton and Cruz, who know how to get separation in short yardage. Meredith knows how to work zones in the mid range, and White and might make himself useful by drawing deep safety coverage just enough to open up things for our TE's and RB's. Out of this set, if they stack the line and dare us to pass, we just have to make completions and move the chains...if they drop into coverage, Howard will continue to have the success he did last season.

[DaSuperfan]

6-10

[LacertineForest]

5-11. Tough schedule, big question marks at WR, QB, and TE (even if some see this as a position of strength/depth, I have my reservations), CB/secondary depth...I just don't see a leap this year. No day 1 starters in the draft and I'm really looking at next year as the beginning of the ascent.

[WagonForce]

5 - 11 from me, but I guessed 8-8 last year and we all saw how that turned out.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears managed a winning record this year, I also wouldn't be surprised with 3 or fewer wins. If the improvements to the secondary turn out, both lines stay healthy, etc. I think this team could be middling.

A few injuries in the wrong places and I see a train wreck.

[Moriarty]

Taking 7

That was a 6-7 win team last year that got buzzsawed by injuries.

I'm expecting an average number in 2017 and treading water talentwise.

[bearsfaninaz]

I'm aiming high again at 9-7. I think our defense gets better with the new guys and I feel we will be running Howard often. As long as Glennon don't get turnover happy

[RING4CHI]

2-14.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

5-11

[Middleguard]

On paper, I think the Bears are less talented than they were at this time last year, but I think they are better than the team that played during last season. If they can reduce the seriousness of their injuries to average I believe they will improve during the season relative to other teams, but I'm pessimistic about the injury situation improving because I don't believe it's all been bad luck and doubt the problem has been corrected.

Right now, the Bears are the concensus 29th ranked team. Over the last 5 years, the team with the 29th best record has won an average of 3.6 games. But the Bears have a slightly easier than average schedule and should win 4.0 games. Below is a chart showing games played, my expectation of games won, and chance they will still be winless:
1 0.076 92%
2 0.20 80
3 0.31 72
4 0.39 66
5 0.69 46
6 0.91 36
7 1.2 26
8 1.4 20
9 1.5 18
10 1.8 14
11 2.0 10
12 2.6 4
13 2.9 3
14 3.1 3
15 3.8 1
16 4.0 0

[staleystarch]

I am usually the pessimist when it comes to predicting the Bears regular season record. Last year in the my office pool I predicted 5-11 and won by a mile as 5-11 was the lowest pick. This year I am an optimist. The reason being I will be 63 next month and have never gotten a chance to see a truly great Bears QB. There may be few opportunities left for me to see that QB so I am throwing my saddle on Mitch Trubisky hoping he comes into the league this year making the same kind of splash Dan Marino made in 1983. In other words, I don't buy the he's going to sit a year common wisdom. My optimistic prediction is 10-6. There are three conditions with my pick:
1) Leonard Floyd needs to stop bumping his head into stuff
2) Eddie Goldman stops doing his Kevin White impersonation.
3) Mitch Trubisky becomes the starter by week 6.