Vegas prediction on Da Bears

VA_Mountain_Bear · Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:13 pm

So Vegas has our beloved BEARS at 5.5 for the over/under. This means the book makers think it very reasonable for us to win 5, but consider 6 a stretch. The Under bet is the easy/safe one to go with, but I am curious what any of you think. Can we get to 6?

I think we get 2 wins out of 4 total match-ups with Vikes and Lions.
We could beat the Bucs because of the following: our D (it's improvements in off-season), Tampa's Oline sucks and puts Winston into bad decision moments with high turnovers, their D is pretty poor, and our Oline is good.
We should beat the Browns and 49ers.
We can beat the Ravens - their offense sucks as well, whoever takes care of the ball better will win this one.

So right there I can reason 5-6 wins (while I can also argue to only 2 as well).
If Vegas moves the mark down to 5, I'd be willing to place an Over bet, but i cannot yet go for 6 wins.

What is anyone else's thoughts?

Boris13c · Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:23 pm

I'll take the over

I see a minimum of 7 wins for the Bears ... but based on their history, no way in hell I'm betting on that ... I feel confident they will do it, but see no need to risk my finances on it

Otis Day · Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:30 pm

When it comes to the Bears of the past 5 yrs, I have no confidence. I can't get over the hump with them at this point. I would feel more confident betting the under than the over. I will not think the D is improved until I see them play. That shit on paper do not mean anything to me. I believe the OL is a ? right now until we here that Long is totally healthy.

I hope for 6+ but can't see it today.

BlueAndOrangeDog · Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:17 pm

Otis Day wrote:When it comes to the Bears of the past 5 yrs, I have no confidence. I can't get over the hump with them at this point. ...

I agree.

It's sad we are clamoring for the six.

Mikefive · Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:35 pm

When I hear people talking about how bad the Bears "are" and then hear their explanation of they did this and that and the other last year, that tells me one thing... They are discounting the volume of injuries the Bears have had. Each of the last 2 years, the Bears have had clearly more than average numbers of significant injuries. I read somewhere that someone (PFF?) scores teams based on their injuries, weighted for importance to the team and found the 2016 Bears to be the worst injury affected team since 2000.

Now that begs the question... In each of Fox's years, the team had a lot of injuries. Is that due to Fox or just bad luck? I don't pretend to know, so my view is a little bit of both. So if the injury hit improves--and there's every reason to think it will to some extent--then we're at 5-6 wins last year before we consider any roster changes this year.

Honestly, I see the roster changes as neutral for 2017, considering we got worse at the QB and WR positions when we lost Cutler and Jeffery and lost all passing game continuity (just my O). But we may have picked it up a bit on D, so the roster update is a wash. That puts me at 5-6 wins this year. Having had to choose one in an earlier thread, I flipped a coin and picked 6.

And I've already posted this in another thread... I was in Vegas around June 1 and I didn't lay any $$$ on the Bears.

FaithInCutler · Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:36 pm

My confidence is at an all-time low. I'm historically a homer and optimist, but between the Young roster and the brutal schedule my money is on the under all day long.

staleystarch · Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:47 pm

Mikefive wrote:When I hear people talking about how bad the Bears "are" and then hear their explanation of they did this and that and the other last year, that tells me one thing... They are discounting the volume of injuries the Bears have had. Each of the last 2 years, the Bears have had clearly more than average numbers of significant injuries. I read somewhere that someone (PFF?) scores teams based on their injuries, weighted for importance to the team and found the 2016 Bears to be the worst injury affected team since 2000.

Now that begs the question... In each of Fox's years, the team had a lot of injuries. Is that due to Fox or just bad luck? I don't pretend to know, so my view is a little bit of both. So if the injury hit improves--and there's every reason to think it will to some extent--then we're at 5-6 wins last year before we consider any roster changes this year.

Honestly, I see the roster changes as neutral for 2017, considering we got worse at the QB and WR positions when we lost Cutler and Jeffery and lost all passing game continuity (just my O). But we may have picked it up a bit on D, so the roster update is a wash. That puts me at 5-6 wins this year. Having had to choose one in an earlier thread, I flipped a coin and picked 6.

And I've already posted this in another thread... I was in Vegas around June 1 and I didn't lay any $$$ on the Bears.

Here's a link to injuries of John Fox's 2010 Panthers. From there it not to hard to find the rest of John Fox's teams. Long injury lists are not new to him.

46Blitz · Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:58 pm

I'll be in Vegas in August, and yes I will put a wager on the Bears.... I'm stupid like that but always put money on my teams. Lol

LacertineForest · Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:16 pm

I've been saying I feel like this is a 5-win team for awhile, and I'm sticking with that. I understand the injury argument, and I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised - just don't have my hopes up.

VA_Mountain_Bear · Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:57 pm

Mikefive wrote:When I hear people talking about how bad the Bears "are" and then hear their explanation of they did this and that and the other last year, that tells me one thing... They are discounting the volume of injuries the Bears have had. Each of the last 2 years, the Bears have had clearly more than average numbers of significant injuries. I read somewhere that someone (PFF?) scores teams based on their injuries, weighted for importance to the team and found the 2016 Bears to be the worst injury affected team since 2000.

Now that begs the question... In each of Fox's years, the team had a lot of injuries. Is that due to Fox or just bad luck? I don't pretend to know, so my view is a little bit of both. So if the injury hit improves--and there's every reason to think it will to some extent--then we're at 5-6 wins last year before we consider any roster changes this year.

Honestly, I see the roster changes as neutral for 2017, considering we got worse at the QB and WR positions when we lost Cutler and Jeffery and lost all passing game continuity (just my O). But we may have picked it up a bit on D, so the roster update is a wash. That puts me at 5-6 wins this year. Having had to choose one in an earlier thread, I flipped a coin and picked 6.

And I've already posted this in another thread... I was in Vegas around June 1 and I didn't lay any $$$ on the Bears.

This is what makes me wonder if we could go 6-8. We had how may guys on IR last year? 22? And our 2ndary is totally revamped with better talent in the DBs than we had last year. This has to make some difference. Also people can knock Glennon all they want, and deservedly so until he proves otherwise; but I hve to think he will be better than the carousel at QB last year. Thats what is teasing me for the Over.