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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:45 pm 
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This is actually pretty encouraging OP. Glad I read this one. Mods need to move the Zach Miller nonsense though.


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:06 pm 
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46Blitz wrote:
For awhile I have been comparing Trubisky to Wilson. I just see a lot of similarities in the two and how Trubisky should be developed with the same blueprint. Though I view Trubisky developing into a slightly better pocket passer, they both have a skill set and style that is very close. When Wilson started his career as a rookie week one, not much was asked of him. They had a good defense and relied on the run game. Much like the Bears now. Over time as Wilson gained experience they asked more of him each year. In fact, each year his number steadily increased. I encourage you to look at his numbers.

Anyhow, through both of their first 5 games as rookies I just looked at their stats. They are very close. The only major differences (or not so major) are completions who Wilson has 20 more, but Wilson also has 4 more interceptions. Wilson also has 2 more TDs, however we all know Trubisky could easily had 2 more if you have been watching. Either way, both comparisons are very close. Here is the breakdown...

Wilson - Trubisky

ATT ------125/115
COMP ----79/59
YARDS---815/809
TD-----------5/3
INT----------6/2
RUSH-------25/15
RYARD---92/110
*Sacks-----10/16
*FumL-------1/2

*Updated

Although each player and situation is different, I find this to be more telling than comparing other QBs to Mitch. I am sure more can be dug up on these two. Like pressures, sacks, etc. But this is just general stuff and supports my thoughts of the two.

So every time I see someone flipping their lid after a loss and saying how Trubisky "isn't that good" I have to stay confident in him as a fan and realize he just played his 5th stinking game. Also, with each sack taken or missed WR.... I just know it could be soooo much worse and he can get so much better in time.

Appreciate your effort in putting together Wilson's stats 46Blitz.

One factor that often seems to be overlooked when comparing Trubisky with other QBs is their team's record the previous year. Also the number of points they scored is worth considering.

Obviously in the NFL teams can change significantly from one year to the next, however their performance the season before they draft a QB does provide an indicator of how good or bad the team he's joining is.

The season before the Seahawks drafted Wilson they had finished 7-9 (21st best record in the league) and they averaged 20.1 points per game. That's significantly better than the Bears record last year of 3-13 (30th in the league) and an average of 17.4 points per game.

Wilson finished his rookie season with a 100.0 passer rating. After 5 starts Trubisky's rating is currently 75.6 and trending up.

Similarly if you look at the Eagles, they finished 7-9 (20th in the league) and they averaged 23.6 points per game in 2015 before they traded up from 13 to select Wentz 2nd overall. Wentz finished his first season with a 79.3 rating and 7 wins in 16 starts.

The Rams also finished 7-9 (18th in the league) that year although they only averaged 17.5 points per game. They traded up from 15 to first overall to select Goff who finished with a rating of 63.6 and zero wins in 7 starts.

Last year the Texans had a 9-7 record (8th in the league) and won their division although, like the Bears, they only averaged 17.4 points per game with their success owing much to their top ranked defense. They traded up from 25 to 12 to get Watson. He compiled a 103.0 rating before his injury and a 3-3 record as a starter. (He also threw 23 times as a Week 1 replacement in a game the Texans lost.)

So, both Wilson and Wentz joined higher scoring teams with a markedly better record than Trubisky. Goff and Watson also both joined teams with much better records than Trubisky did although they were not scoring any more points than the Bears. Nevertheless, it's reasonable to assert that all four began their careers in notably better situations than Trubisky has.

Perhaps better comparisons for Trubisky are Winston and Mariotta who both joined teams that had gone 2-14 in 2014, with the Buccaneers averaging 17.3 points per game and the Titans just 15.9 points per game. They finished their rookie seasons with ratings of 84.2 and 91.5 respectively. Their win/loss records as starters were 6-10 and 3-9. So far Trubisky's record is 2-3.

It's still early days, Trubisky hasn't even started half the games he will this year as long as he remains healthy, but so far his win/loss record as a starter compares favourably with all except Russell Wilson (11-5) and his passer rating is currently not all that far off Wentz and significantly better than where Goff finished. Both of those players are having outstanding second seasons leading their teams to the best two records in the league with passer ratings of 104.1 and 101.5 respectively. Winston and Mariotta's ratings are currently 87.3 and 83.1. If he can lead his team to a few more wins with the likes of the Browns and 49ers still to come and his passer rating continues to edge up then come season's end Trubisky will not look out of place amongst any of these highly touted young QBs as a rookie with much promise to come.

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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:37 pm 
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No offense. But I find it completely useless to compare one QB to another through 'X' amount of games. There are 1000's of variables that go into the first five games. Not to mention that Wilson and Trubisky are COMPLETELY different people. They don't learn at the same rate, they are not the same height, weight, experience in college, opponents on college, the list goes on and on. There is absolutely NOTHING you can predict looking at the stats of a QB the first 9 games of his career, and then comparing them against another.

Sorry to pop the balloon.

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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:36 pm 
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I think there's more problems with Trub than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I don't think they're fatal issues, but he does look overwhelmed out there sometimes. This merry go-round with the blame game, where we stop everywhere BESIDES the QB himself. It's getting a tad silly.

Perhaps I'm just trying too hard not to get my hopes so far up for the kid. The ease with which I was sold on Rex, Kyle and Jay... it's kind of embarrassing looking back. lol. Hell, I remember being a bit excited to see what Hanie could do in 2011 following Cutler's injury.


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:42 pm 
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Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
No offense. But I find it completely useless to compare one QB to another through 'X' amount of games. There are 1000's of variables that go into the first five games. Not to mention that Wilson and Trubisky are COMPLETELY different people. They don't learn at the same rate, they are not the same height, weight, experience in college, opponents on college, the list goes on and on. There is absolutely NOTHING you can predict looking at the stats of a QB the first 9 games of his career, and then comparing them against another.

Sorry to pop the balloon.


Agreed.

No matter what a QB's numbers are during/after his first year, you can always find a comparison that serves as anecdotal evidence towards whatever your notions are about said QB.


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:11 pm 
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As a Bears fan I have been conditioned to not get excited about a QB or a safety. I tend to just let shit play out over time and go from there. I get excited about LBs and RBs and that is about it with this team.

Hell, I don't even get excited for the games on Sunday anymore. It is just an expectation that I watch some or all of the game. I resorted to just the radio for 3 games this year and didn't feel bad about it.

It is going to take a lot for me to get excited about Bears football again. I am almost dreading going to the Bears vs 9er game on 12/3.


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:59 pm 
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Richie wrote:
I think there's more problems with Trub than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I don't think they're fatal issues, but he does look overwhelmed out there sometimes. This merry go-round with the blame game, where we stop everywhere BESIDES the QB himself. It's getting a tad silly.

Perhaps I'm just trying too hard not to get my hopes so far up for the kid. The ease with which I was sold on Rex, Kyle and Jay... it's kind of embarrassing looking back. lol. Hell, I remember being a bit excited to see what Hanie could do in 2011 following Cutler's injury.



Careful getting too critical or pessimistic about Tru, you'll get your CHIT pushed in by some of these guys lol.


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:25 pm 
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PapaDongo wrote:
Richie wrote:
I think there's more problems with Trub than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I don't think they're fatal issues, but he does look overwhelmed out there sometimes. This merry go-round with the blame game, where we stop everywhere BESIDES the QB himself. It's getting a tad silly.

Perhaps I'm just trying too hard not to get my hopes so far up for the kid. The ease with which I was sold on Rex, Kyle and Jay... it's kind of embarrassing looking back. lol. Hell, I remember being a bit excited to see what Hanie could do in 2011 following Cutler's injury.



Careful getting too critical or pessimistic about Tru, you'll get your CHIT pushed in by some of these guys lol.


Papa, I think your posts get met with more push-back, because of the confrontational manner with which you approach these topics. I think if you toned that down, you'd get along with everyone here a lot better.

Not that I'm a long-time poster here, but some things are just obvious. I don't mean any disrespect either.


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 Post subject: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:32 pm 
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PapaDongo wrote:
Richie wrote:
I think there's more problems with Trub than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I don't think they're fatal issues, but he does look overwhelmed out there sometimes. This merry go-round with the blame game, where we stop everywhere BESIDES the QB himself. It's getting a tad silly.

Perhaps I'm just trying too hard not to get my hopes so far up for the kid. The ease with which I was sold on Rex, Kyle and Jay... it's kind of embarrassing looking back. lol. Hell, I remember being a bit excited to see what Hanie could do in 2011 following Cutler's injury.



Careful getting too critical or pessimistic about Tru, you'll get your CHIT pushed in by some of these guys lol.


Being critical of Trubisky is not why you're getting "your CHIT pushed in." It's due to all time classy statements like "get your CHIT pushed in."


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 Post subject: Re: Trubisky Vs. Wilson
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:28 pm 
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BR0D1E86 wrote:
PapaDongo wrote:
Richie wrote:
I think there's more problems with Trub than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I don't think they're fatal issues, but he does look overwhelmed out there sometimes. This merry go-round with the blame game, where we stop everywhere BESIDES the QB himself. It's getting a tad silly.

Perhaps I'm just trying too hard not to get my hopes so far up for the kid. The ease with which I was sold on Rex, Kyle and Jay... it's kind of embarrassing looking back. lol. Hell, I remember being a bit excited to see what Hanie could do in 2011 following Cutler's injury.



Careful getting too critical or pessimistic about Tru, you'll get your CHIT pushed in by some of these guys lol.


Being critical of Trubisky is not why you're getting "your CHIT pushed in." It's due to all time classy statements like "get your CHIT pushed in."


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