BearsFansOnline Podcast // E05: Draft Results!

[dplank]

Great podcast.

Regarding the feeling Bears fans have about draft pick value and the number of picks we have.

Had we traded down out of #8 to the mid or late 1st round and accumulated an additional couple of picks I would have been happy. I'm happy we have Smith, but a scenario with Vea / Davenport / Edmunds instead plus more players would've been great too.

The reason being for me is because we are not, and have not been for a long time, a team that is one player away from solving its problems. That's honestly why every year I always wonder why the team with the #1 pick keeps it. They have that pick for a reason. They weren't good last year. One player won't fix that. Sell it for a bunch of picks and rebuild the team. We have made significant progress this offseason, but Smith is not going to be the reason why we have a winning season. I am NOT trying to be negative about Smith, far from it, but we aren't in a situation where one guy is the difference between making the playoffs and not.

That's just not a good way to look at it dude. You need to draft great players regardless of whether or not you are one guy away from winning! I'll ALWAYS take 1 great player over a couple of "pretty good" ones. Every great team has a few superstar/truly elite players on it, and statistically your best chance to land one of those players is to draft one very high. It's not a perfect science by any means, but it's statistically proven.

Your method would make our path to creating an 8-8 team much faster, I'll give you that. But it won't help you win a super bowl. Patience, build through the draft, and you have to find some special talent along the way esp at QB. If you keep trading down to accumulate picks then you are, by and large, watering down your overall talent (noting of course you can always get "Tom Brady lucky"). At some point you need some superstars, and I don't intend to be picking Top 10 again for a good while.

I'm thrilled to have Smith, I believe he's going to be a GREAT one for us for a long time. We now have young, talented leaders on both sides of the ball in Smith/Trubisky. High quality people, smart hard workers, example setters. Exactly the type of core we want.

[Mikefive]

dplank... I agree that you need superstars. And we certainly lack them. But I think you're being a bit black and white in an area that's wildly variant shades of gray. "Statistically proven" means zero if you swing an miss on your pick, no matter where it is. Statistically, only half of first rounders end up being quality players. The percentage of superstars in any draft is quite low. The quality player percentage may go up to 60% in the top 10, but that's still a 40% failure rate.

The art to a successful draft isn't where you choose as much as it is WHO you choose. Of course, picking higher helps your odds a little bit. But it's no assurance of anything. Trading back to get a good player and another certainly can work, as we demonstrated when we got Cody Whitehair.

[dplank]

I assume you've seen this draft value chart before?



Ever notice how much value there is and how steep the drop off is with those first picks? Dropping 400 points of value just to go from pick 1 to pick 2, which is the equivalent of a middle second round pick! In contrast, dropping from R2P1 to R2P2 only costs 20 points vs 400 to make the same move in the first round.

Now ask yourself, why do you think that is? If we followed your logic, the drop off in points as you drop by pick would remain relatively constant (not exactly constant, but on that 60/40 curve you mentioned). But that's not what you see here, you see a STEEP curve on the highest picks. Why? The reason is obvious, it's because teams know that they are significantly more likely to land a great player the higher they pick.

Position also matters, statistical guru site five thirty eight has an interesting graph...watch how they all fall off a cliff as you get towards that 3rd round. Interestingly enough for our scenario here, LB happens to be the position most impacted by draft position (I'd have guess QB). Trading back can be ok, but it simply dilutes your talent pool ALL THINGS CONSIDERED AS YOU LOOK AT HISTORICAL AVERAGES. Doesn't mean you can't get lucky, but you don't plan on luck you play the odds. You are arguing the exception, I'm arguing the rule.

[VA_Mountain_Bear]

When is a new podcast coming?

[UOK]

When is a new podcast coming?

Thanks to work having been an absolute nightmare this summer, not as soon as I'd hoped, but I'm very optimistic episodes will trickle in with the coming of July and Training Camp. I'm going to reach out to Chris soon and we'll get something together.

[VA_Mountain_Bear]

When is a new podcast coming?

Thanks to work having been an absolute nightmare this summer, not as soon as I'd hoped, but I'm very optimistic episodes will trickle in with the coming of July and Training Camp. I'm going to reach out to Chris soon and we'll get something together.

Awesome! I've enjoyed you guys' work so far.