Update: Sammy Watkins to sign with Chiefs

[G08]

24 years of age, in his 4 seasons in the NFL he has put up statistics nearly identical to Davante Adams (keep in mind Adams had Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball while Sammy Watkins had EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor, and Jared Goff).

My estimation: 4 years/$58 million/$30 guaranteed (Davante Adams' contract)

X WIDE RECEIVER

Sammy Watkins - Free Agent



The X receiver, or split end, is the WR lined up wide opposite of the TE. In a 3 wr set, he’s usually all alone on his side of the field, the weak side. Because of this, he has to be an exceptional blocker in the running game.

After the 5 offensive lineman and the TE, the X WR is usually the 7th player to lineup directly on the line of scrimmage. Because of this, the CB can easily slow him down or redirect his route by jamming him at the snap of the ball. To consistently break a jam at the LOS, a WR either has to be extremely powerful (Julio Jones), exceptionally slippery (Odell Beckham), or have elite footwork (Antonio Brown). Well, Sammy Watkins has some of all of the above.

Watkins is a physical freak. He’s a physically huge WR with track speed. He’s pretty much the perfect X receiver. He has an incredible first step off the LOS, powerful hands to disengage CB’s and catch passes, and the footwork to break away from coverage.

When healthy, Watkins is unstoppable. Unfortunately, he seems to be injured often. But by no means is he soft. He actually plays through injuries, but he is no where near as effective. This is the sole reason he is going to be able to hit free agency.

I think Ryan Pace will single out going after Sammy Watkins. Why, you might ask. Well, it’s because Sammy Watkins is basically a better version of Kevin White. This might sound like a ridiculous reason, but Pace must have been in love with Kevin White’s skill set to draft him #7 overall. And Watkins was the same type of player coming out of college.

The film on Watkins

New Orleans tried to play press man coverage on Watkins, and it didn’t work very well. The CB here is totally overmatched...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/ReasonableImpureIridescentshark

Trying to out physical Sammy Watkins is like a one on one boxing match...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/FriendlyOpenHen

NO tries zone coverage on Watkins with the same result. He cuts through the zone into the soft spot...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/InsistentPlasticGermanspitz

Here the NY Giants CB plays 10 yards off of Watkins. The CB is positioned near the sideline to Watkins left, meaning that he will not let Watkins get to the outside and past him. If Watkins breaks in, the CB has help from the safety Landon Collins. Watkins does break in, triggering the safety to cover him. But Watkins just effortlessly blows by him for a TD...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/AbsoluteEnchantedAustraliancattledog

Watkins is an immovable force...



https://gfycat.com/EnergeticSorrowfulElephant

You are not going to arm tackle Watkins in the open field...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/ReadyWhoppingDeviltasmanian

Watkins can win immediately at the snap of the ball...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/SpiffyVengefulGoral

The CB tries to knock Watkins off his route, but Watkins goes through him like a knife through butter...



https://gfycat.com/LeafyInsidiousAmericanbittern

Watkins almost knocks the CB on his ass at the line of scrimmage...



https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/ComfortableMajorFieldspaniel

[G08]

Tape Study: Rams WR Sammy Watkins Impact on Offense

Sammy Watkins Dropped the Diva Attitude and Got His Career Back on Track in LA

[malk]

You're doing a good job selling him!

Without digging into those articles yet, is there any data on Goff's inaccuracy on deep balls? Ideally something like % caught of catchable balls broken by distance...

[G08]

You're doing a good job selling him!

Without digging into those articles yet, is there any data on Goff's inaccuracy on deep balls? Ideally something like % caught of catchable balls broken by distance...

I can dig around, but here's an example of how terrible Goff was 16+ yards downfield:



This dude knows how to get open, and his burst into/out of his stem is elite.

[Hematite]

On this team, targets would not be an issue. Sammy you're table is ready!

[crueltyabc]

It's certainly tempting to believe his redemption story, and there's no denying the flashes of talent

[G08]

It's certainly tempting to believe his redemption story, and there's no denying the flashes of talent

It boils down to health for me, because look at his career numbers (4 years) compared to Davante Adams' (4 years):

Davante Adams - 59 games, 398 targets, 237 rec, 2811 yds, 11.9 YPC, 26 TDs

Sammy Watkins - 52 games, 346 targets, 192 rec, 3052 yds, 15.9 YPC, 25 TDs


Keep in mind Adams had Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball the vast majority of his career while Sammy Watkins had EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and Jared Goff.

[Nanky]

I'm getting on board with the Watkins train. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out . . . any chance of Watkins and Robinson? Probably too expensive, but it'd make for a fun offense.

[G08]

I'm getting on board with the Watkins train. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out . . . any chance of Watkins and Robinson? Probably too expensive, but it'd make for a fun offense.

I think it's going to be one or the other, and San Francisco is probably going to be our main competition. Question is how high Pace is willing to go, IMO.

[Adipost]

Great stuff right herrr...

Buffalo Bills must keep feeding Sammy Watkins in 2016

[G08]

Great stuff right herrr...

Buffalo Bills must keep feeding Sammy Watkins in 2016

That last route on Revis... Jesus Christ.

[Middleguard]

My estimation: 4 years/$58 million/$30 guaranteed (Davante Adams' contract)

I don't think Pace will go there for Watkins, because I doubt the Adams' contract fits into Pace's guidelines for value (for Adams or Watkins).
I've no idea what sort of offers Paul Richardson will get, but he seems like more of a Pace type guy to me than Watkins.

[cblaz11]

If he's going to do it nows the time...While Mitch is on his rookie deal.

[The Marshall Plan]

By the time Biscuit signs his second contract the cap will have inflated enough so that it doesn't matter.

The cap increase of $10M means that we are getting Kyle Fuller for essentially no cap hit for his new deal.

The money is there to be aggressive at WR. Watkins, Robinson, Landry (via trade), Wilson. Pick one and see if you can get two.

[cblaz11]

Watkins won't hit the open market anyways. Their offseason moves so far have freed up some nice space...No way they give up a 2nd rd pick and let Watkins walk for nothing.

[G08]

My estimation: 4 years/$58 million/$30 guaranteed (Davante Adams' contract)

I don't think Pace will go there for Watkins, because I doubt the Adams' contract fits into Pace's guidelines for value (for Adams or Watkins).
I've no idea what sort of offers Paul Richardson will get, but he seems like more of a Pace type guy to me than Watkins.

It'll be really interesting to see what he has in mind. He threw top 5 CB money at AJ Boyue and was turned down so I think if he sees a player he wants he won't hesitate to go get him.

If you look at the contracts dished out to Adams and Jeffery (both had similar numbers their first 4 seasons), you're looking at $13-15 million per season on average. We're 3rd in the NFL in cap space so there really is no excuse, IMO.

[G08]

Watkins won't hit the open market anyways. Their offseason moves so far have freed up some nice space...No way they give up a 2nd rd pick and let Watkins walk for nothing.

That's debatable, yes they gave up a low 2nd to get Watkins but keep in mind if they lose him in FA to a big contract, they'll get a compensatory pick in the 3rd round.

The Rams are at $32.375 million, I believe, after the Ogletree trade. They still have to make Aaron Donald the highest paid player in football, Todd Gurley comes out of contract in a couple years, etc. I don't think they'll shell out $13-$15 million per season to someone who was 4th on their team in targets... but I could be wrong.

[BR0D1E86]

Watkins won't hit the open market anyways. Their offseason moves so far have freed up some nice space...No way they give up a 2nd rd pick and let Watkins walk for nothing.

He is hitting the open market. That’s done. They may outbid everyone else, but he’s going to hit the market.

Edit: I see you mentioned in another thread you think they’ll negotiate a deal before the FA period. Possible I guess, but I haven’t seen a single report of them working on anything.

[G08]

Watkins won't hit the open market anyways. Their offseason moves so far have freed up some nice space...No way they give up a 2nd rd pick and let Watkins walk for nothing.

He is hitting the open market. That’s done. They may outbid everyone else, but he’s going to hit the market.

Edit: I see you mentioned in another thread you think they’ll negotiate a deal before the FA period. Possible I guess, but I haven’t seen a single report of them working on anything.

This is what Watkins tweeted after La Canfora said Joyner was going to get tagged:



Based on what I've learned about the dude, he's got that WR1 dog in him that always wants the ball all the time. He was 4th in targets in LA this past season (even though the dude in front of him played 2 less games -- insane).

If Pace and Nagy want him, tell him that they're going to bring chunks of his Clemson spread concepts to Chicago (or some derivative of it) and he will be the focal point of our offense. You can send him tape of Tyreek Hill and say this is at minimum what we want to do with you. We have a young, accurate QB and oh by the way here's $15.5 million per year average.

If both parties are interested, there's nothing that should hold us back from signing himm.

[G08]

Look at the myriad ways Watkins was used in this one game alone against Ohio State:

[video][/video]

If Nagy is pouring over this tape, I bet you he's giggling like a school girl.

[wab]

I have a hard time going back to college stuff after they've been in the NFL for a few years.

[G08]

I have a hard time going back to college stuff after they've been in the NFL for a few years.

It's not so much how he looks as it is how he was deployed. I think Nagy/Helfrich want to employ a lot of these spread concepts into our offense next year. In these clips, you can see him doing it and having success. I can envision a lot of the same here if we went that route, not to mention we'd still have Kevin White (I think?) and Tarik Cohen as viable weapons. Shaheen is still a ?

Here's some of what he's done in the NFL:

[video][/video]

[Richie]

Just....

No thanks.

For the sheer fact that somebody is going to throw some decent cash at him and he ain't worth it.

[G08]

Just....

No thanks.

For the sheer fact that somebody is going to throw some decent cash at him and he ain't worth it.

I respect that, but I'm a yapper so I have to ask "why"?

[wab]

I'm not a fan of free agency in general, but I do think that's the best way for the Bears to fix the WR position right now. I'm just lukewarm on the guys out there that are going to get all this money.

[G08]

I'm not a fan of free agency in general, but I do think that's the best way for the Bears to fix the WR position right now. I'm just lukewarm on the guys out there that are going to get all this money.

They're out there for a reason so they definitely come with some question marks to them.

I find comfort in knowing that Watkins has put up strikingly similar career numbers to Davante Adams, and I'm of the opinion he wasn't used optimally with the Rams.

Pace, at some point, is going to have to pay (literally in this case) for getting rid of Marshall and Jeffery and drafting the current bust that is Kevin White. We reap what we sow, but in this instance I think we have a kid that has superstar potential in what I believe to be an offense that will suit his strengths.

He runs great routes, he has tremendous hands (most targets in 2017 without a drop), and just listening to the kid speak I get the impression he's a good young man, introspective, and just wants to win.

The injured ankle worried me, but reading up on the injury it sounds like the screw used the first go-round was too small and the bone was shifting. Kid still tried to play through it after giving it 8 weeks of rest, but to no avail. Had the surgery again to repair the issue and by all accounts has been good since.

MMQB speculated that Robinson and Watkins could be getting short, "prove it" deals that are front loaded. I don't think I'm too concerned with a 1 year, $12 million deal with incentives, or some derivative of that.

[BearsFanInMN]

I'm not a fan of free agency in general, but I do think that's the best way for the Bears to fix the WR position right now. I'm just lukewarm on the guys out there that are going to get all this money.

They're out there for a reason so they definitely come with some question marks to them.

I find comfort in knowing that Watkins has put up strikingly similar career numbers to Davante Adams, and I'm of the opinion he wasn't used optimally with the Rams.

Pace, at some point, is going to have to pay (literally in this case) for getting rid of Marshall and Jeffery and drafting the current bust that is Kevin White. We reap what we sow, but in this instance I think we have a kid that has superstar potential in what I believe to be an offense that will suit his strengths.

Agreed. He was not used optimally in LA, but even then i do think he opened up the offense which contributed to their improvement, especially at QB. We have to make a significant move at WR and he doesn't cost a draft pick like Landry will and isnt coming off major injury like Robinson, so he would be my preferred target.

[G08]

The thing that really gets me excited is that you put him on the field and you have no idea what he's going to do. Motion into the backfield and take a hand off? He can do that. Run a go route and torch you deep? He can do that. Jet sweeps, reverses, WR screens, slants? He can do that.

He's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, dudes like that don't grow on trees. And really the part that is going unnoticed by many is that he takes a TON of pressure off Kevin White while being able to (hopefully) mentor the kid since they have a similar playing style (with Watkins being a much superior route runner, WR-savvy player).

[Richie]

Just....

No thanks.

For the sheer fact that somebody is going to throw some decent cash at him and he ain't worth it.

I respect that, but I'm a yapper so I have to ask "why"?

Well, as mentioned in the thread already... WR is always a position in high-demand during free agency. There's very few legitimate starters to go around, the price gets jacked up and a couple of teams always make the mistake of overpaying for them. Especially the big name guys like Watkins. I believe that it is pretty safe to say that the majority of those signings do not pan out.

To provide an example as to how people get sucked into free agency hype with big names...

Last two seasons:

Player A:

23 Games 67 REC 1,033 Yards 10 TD's

Player B:

24 Games 83 REC 1,144 Yards 5 TD's

Player C:

27 Games 88 REC 1,030 Yards 4 TD's


The reveal?

Those three players are (in order) Watkins, Inman and Wright.

Watkins is (likely) not anymore of an answer to our WR problems than Dontrelle Inman or Kendall Wright have been. Yet, those two guys will get deals in the 1-2 million dollar per season range. Watkins will get 3-4 times that. Due to the hype that still surrounds him from the draft and the perceived "ceiling" that he has only shown flashes of in very small bursts.

Let us not forget that the majority of that production also came from within the #1 scoring offense in football last year... and this comparison isn't even taking into account what is likely a necessary "curved" grading scale for Wright/Inman.

If Watkins is the only UFA option... Just bring back either of those two for the same production, at a fraction of the cost, please.

[G08]

^ That's a bit disingenuous though... Watkins was traded to the Rams in August and never got to learn the playbook. He was also 5th on his team in touches.


Inman's career numbers: 49 games, 130 rec, 1797 yds, 8 TDs
Wright's career numbers: 82 games, 339 rec, 3858 yds, 19 TDs

Watkin's career numbers: 52 games, 192 rec, 3052 yds, 25 TDs