Tiers

College football and the NFL Draft

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karhu
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Early days, of course, but I thought I'd post my tiered breakdown of draft prospects. First time I've done this, and it's helped me think about strategy and such. Apologies for the formatting.

1
DE
Allen, Jonathan
OLB
Garrett, Myles

2
CB
Humphrey, Marlon
Jones, Sidney
King, Desmond
Lewis, Jourdan
Wilson, Quincy
DE
Thomas, Solomon
Vea, Vita
FS
Adams, Jamal
Hooker, Malik
OLB
Williams, Tim
RB
Cook, Dalvin
Fournette, Leonard
SS
Peppers, Jabrill
WR
Davis, Corey

3
CB
Awuzie, Chidobe
Sutton, Cameron
Tabor, Teez
Tankersley, Cordrea
DE
McDowell, Malik
ILB
Cunningham, Zach
Foster, Reuben
OLB
Barnett, Derek
Harris, Charles
Lawson, Carl
OT
McGlinchey, Mike
Ramczyk, Ryan
Robinson, Cam
QB
Kizer, DeShone
Trubisky, Mitch
Watson, Deshaun
TE
Hodges, Bucky

4
CB
Conley, Gareon
Cutrer, Jeremy
Facyson, Brandon
Jackson, Adoree'
Thomas, Jordan
White, Tre'Davious
DE
Johnson, Jaleel
Jones, Jarron
Replogle, Jake
Wormley, Chris
DT
Ogunjobi, Larry
Qualls, Elijah
FS
Baker, Budda
Maye, Marcus
Williams, Marcus
ILB
Haynes, Marquis
Walker Jr., Anthony
OG
Feeney, Dan
Lamp, Forrest
OLB
Davis, Jarrad
Hall, Daeshon
Lewis, Tyquan
McKinley, Takkarist
Hubbard, Sam
OT
Dawkins, Dion
Moton, Taylor
QB
Rudolph, Mason
Mahomes, Pat
RB
Chubb, Nick
McCaffrey, Christian
TE
Butt, Jake
Engram, Evan
Howard, O.J.
WR
Dupre, Malachi
Ross, John
Scott, Artavis
Smith-Schuster, JuJu
Williams, Mike

5
C
Elflein, Pat
Pocic, Ethan
CB
King, Kevin
White, Marquez
DE
Adams, Montravius
Kpassagnon, Tanoh
DT
Lotulelei, Lowell
FS
Jerome, Lorenzo
OG
Cole, Mason
Isidora, Danny
Johnson, Dorian
Mama, Damien
Smith, Braden
OLB
Bellamy, Davin
Charlton, Taco
Smoot, Dawuane
Willis, Jordan
OT
Bisnowaty, Adam
Davenport, Julie'n
McDermott, Conor
Wheeler, Chad
RB
Gallman, Wayne
McGuire, Elijah
Perine, Samaje
WR
Dural, Travin
Jones, Zay
Ross, Fred
Washington, James
Westbrook, Dede

6
C
Orlosky, Tyler
CB
Paris, Ed
Stewart, *M.J.
Stribling, Channing
DE
Glasgow, Ryan
DT
Augusta, Josh
OG
Price, Billy
RB
Hood, Elijah
McNichols, Jeremy
WR
Chesson, Jehu
Darboh, Amara
Ford, Isaiah
Godwin, Chris
Kupp, Cooper
Rudolph, Travis
Sperbeck, Thomas
Taylor, Taywan

7
CB
Kazee, Damontae
Luke, Cole
Nichols, Deatrick
DE
Godchaux, Davon
Vanderdoes, Eddie
Watkins, Carlos
FS
Blanding, Quin
Jones, David
OLB
Biegel, Vince
Cox, Bryan
OT
Dielman, J.J.
Magnuson, Erik
QB
Rush, Cooper
Webb, Davis
SS
Jackson, Eddie
TE
Smythe, Durham
WR
Coley, Stacy
Quick, James
Stringfellow, Damore'ea
Switzer, Ryan

8
ILB
Reddick, Haason
OT
Heck, Jon
QB
Kelly, Chad
Peterman, Nathan
RB
Clement, Corey
Folston, Tarean
SS
Conner, Tony
TE
Hikutini, Cole
Leggett, Jordan
Sprinkle, Jeremy
WR
Carrington II, Darren
Etta-Tawo, Amba

9
QB
Kaaya, Brad
Lunt, Wes
Terrell, Zach
RB
Pumphrey, Donnel

10
FS
Sanders, Dominick
QB
Dobbs, Joshua
RB
Freeman, Royce
WR
Adeboyejo, Quincy

11
K
Carlson, Daniel
OLB
Price, Ejuan
OT
Johnson, Roderick
QB
Mullens, Nick
RB
Hunt, Kareem
TE
Everett, Gerald

12
ILB
Beckwith, Kendell
QB
Evans, Dane
Gustafson, Brady
Hill, Taysom
RB
Conner, James
TE
Jarwin, Blake

13
OT
Gennesy, Avery
QB
Leidner, Mitch
TE
Odom, Phazahn

14
OT
Skipper, Dan
QB
Beathard, C.J.
Russell, Seth
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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karhu
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And charts of those tiers.
tiers - offense.png
tiers - defense.png
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So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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G08
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Man, you don't fuck around :thumbsup:

I'll be active in this thread as the off-season progresses
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

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karhu
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Heh, I'm 48 with a kid in college and two in daycare. I don't have the time or money to do much, so when I get a chance, I do the hell out of it.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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G08
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karhu wrote:Heh, I'm 48 with a kid in college and two in daycare. I don't have the time or money to do much, so when I get a chance, I do the hell out of it.
Hence the three kids :rimshot:
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

"Wallet white, phone is pink, case is clear, nails are clear, lips are pink – your girl LOVE 'em!"
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karhu
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G08 wrote:
karhu wrote:Heh, I'm 48 with a kid in college and two in daycare. I don't have the time or money to do much, so when I get a chance, I do the hell out of it.
Hence the three kids :rimshot:
"Dad, where do babies come ftom?"
"Well, son, when a man and a woman love each other very much, they do the hell out of each other and...."
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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thunderspirit
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karhu wrote:
G08 wrote:
karhu wrote:Heh, I'm 48 with a kid in college and two in daycare. I don't have the time or money to do much, so when I get a chance, I do the hell out of it.
Hence the three kids :rimshot:
"Dad, where do babies come ftom?"
"Well, son, when a man and a woman love each other very much, they do the hell out of each other and...."
Better than what I got told when I asked. 8-)

I agree with Tier 1. Lots of disconnect after that.

(But that's nothing new, right?)
KFFL refugee.

dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
:shocked:
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karhu
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Bound to be some differences, sure. For what it's worth, this is a Bears-centric breakdown. And Wilson & Thomas are due to drop from tier two when I revise this.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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Atkins&Rebel
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Don't have a lot of time this AM to go through, but the name that stands out to me being a bit low is Cam Robinson. I believe that he'll be a heavy consideration at least for us and he rises through the offseason.

The knock is how he explains his arrest in the spring.
I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
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karhu
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:Don't have a lot of time this AM to go through, but the name that stands out to me being a bit low is Cam Robinson. I believe that he'll be a heavy consideration at least for us and he rises through the offseason.

The knock is how he explains his arrest in the spring.
I'd be awfully surprised to learn that any OL was in the mix for our first-round pick. That's why Robinson's back there with Ramczyk. If I'd thought that OT was a bigger need, Robinson would probably be in tier two.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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Atkins&Rebel
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Ohhh, "team needs/desires" based tiers...gotchya...was looking at it as speculative overall talent and projected draft slotting...
I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
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karhu
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:Ohhh, "team needs/desires" based tiers...gotchya...was looking at it as speculative overall talent and projected draft slotting...
Yeah, I kinda glossed that point. These are my ideas of value-tiers for the Bears. There might be a bunch of great 4-3 OLB types in this draft, for instance, but I didn't include them here at all because they don't have any value to us.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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karhu
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Figured I'd update this.

1
OLB
Garrett, Myles

2
CB
Lattimore, Marshon
DE
Allen, Jonathan
Thomas, Solomon
RB
Fournette, Leonard
S
Adams, Jamal
Hooker, Malik

3
CB
Conley, Gareon
Humphrey, Marlon
King, Kevin
Moreau, Fabian
DE
McDowell, Malik
Wise Jr., Deatrich
DT
Ogunjobi, Larry
OLB
Barnett, Derek
Charlton, Taco
Watt, TJ
Willis, Jordan
OT
Bolles, Garett
Moton, Taylor
Ramczyk, Ryan
Robinson, Cam
QB
Kizer, DeShone
Trubisky, Mitch
Watson, Deshaun
RB
McCaffrey, Christian
TE
Howard, O.J.
WR
Davis, Corey
Ross, John
S
Melifonwu, Obi

4
CB
Douglas, Rasul
Griffin, Shaquill
Jackson, Adoree'
King, Desmond
Myrick, Jalen
Sutton, Cameron
Tabor, Teez
Thomas, Jordan
Witherspoon, Ahkello
DE
Kpassagnon, Tanoh
DT
Augusta, Josh
ILB
Brown, Blair
Davis, Jarrad
Foster, Reuben
Haynes, Marquis
Walker Jr., Anthony
OG
Feeney, Dan
OLB
Bowser, Tyus
Harris, Charles
Hendrickson, Trey
Lawson, Carl
Lewis, Tyquan
McKinley, Takkarist
Williams, Tim
QB
Mahomes II, Patrick
RB
Chubb, Nick
Cook, Dalvin
TE
Kittle, George
Njoku, David
WR
Dupre, Malachi
Godwin, Chris
Smith-Schuster, JuJu
Williams, Mike
S
Baker, Budda
Peppers, Jabrill
Williams, Marcus

5
C
Elflein, Pat
CB
Awuzie, Chidobe
Coleman, Xavier
Cutrer, Jeremy
Facyson, Brandon
Holsey, Joshua
Jones*, Sidney
Kazee, Damontae
Lewis, Jourdan
White, Marquez
White, Tre'Davious
DE
Adams, Montravius
Godchaux, Davon
Wormley, Chris
DT
Jones, D.J.
Qualls, Elijah
ILB
Anzalone, Alex
Cunningham, Zach
Reddick, Haason
Riley, Duke
OG
Dawkins, Dion
Johnson, Dorian
Mama, Damien
OLB
Basham, Tarell
Bellamy, Davin
Hall, Daeshon
Rivers, Derek
OT
Collins, Aviante
Davenport, Julie'n
Johnson, Roderick
Wheeler, Chad
RB
Gallman, Wayne
Kamara, Alvin
McGuire, Elijah
McNichols, Jeremy
Perine, Samaje
Williams, Stanley
TE
Hodges, Bucky
WR
Darboh, Amara
Davis, Robert
Dural, Travin
Golladay, Kenny
Jones, Zay
Ross, Fred
Scott, Artavis
Switzer, Ryan
Westbrook, Dede
S
Ford, Johnathan
Johnson, Jadar
Johnson, John
Jones, Josh
Nacua, Kai
Thompson, Tedric

6
C
Orlosky, Tyler
Pocic, Ethan
CB
Elder, Corn
Paris, Ed
Stewart, *M.J.
Stribling, Channing
Tankersley, Cordrea
DE
Glasgow, Ryan
Jones, Jarron
Vanderdoes, Eddie
DT
Henderson, Roderick
Jones, DJ
OG
Asiata, Isaac
Lamp, Forrest
Price, Billy
Siragusa, Nico
OLB
Anderson, Ryan
Biegel, Vince
Landry, Harold
Mathis, Joe
Smoot, Dawuane
OT
Bisnowaty, Adam
Garcia, Antonio
RB
Hood, Elijah
Jones, Aaron
TE
Butt, Jake
Engram, Evan
Odom, Phazahn
Shaheen, Adam
Smith, Jonnu
WR
Chesson, Jehu
Ford, Isaiah
Reynolds, Josh
Rudolph, Travis
Sperbeck, Thomas
Taylor, Taywan
S
Jackson, Eddie
Jones, David
Stewart, Orion

7
C
Fuller, Kyle
CB
Luke, Cole
Nichols, Deatrick
Tocho, Jack
Wilson, Brandon
DE
Johnson, Jaleel
Ledbetter, Jeremiah
Watkins, Carlos
ILB
Bullough, Riley
Milano, Matt
OG
Roullier, Chase
OLB
Cox, Bryan
Davis, Keionta
Malveaux, Cameron
Nwachukwu, Noble
OT
Dielman, J.J.
Magnuson, Erik
QB
Gustafson, Brady
Kaaya, Brad
Liufau, Sefo
TE
Smythe, Durham
WR
Adeboyejo, Quincy
Coley, Stacy
Kupp, Cooper
Quick, James
Rector, Michael
Stringfellow, Damore'ea
S
Blanding, Quin
Jerome, Lorenzo
Maye, Marcus

8
CB
Allen, Brian
Langley, Brendan
DE
Ricard, Patrick
DT
Tupou, Josh
ILB
Mulumba Tshimanga, Christophe
Orimolade, Folarin
OLB
Carraway, Josh
OT
McDermott, Conor
QB
Kelly, Chad
Peterman, Nathan
RB
Henderson, De'Angelo
TE
Auclair, Antony
Burns, Barrett
Hikutini, Cole
Leggett, Jordan
Roberts, Michael
Saubert, Eric
WR
Brown, Billy
Carrington II, Darren
Etta-Tawo, Amba
S
Barnett, Dante

9
ILB
Ellis, Brooks
Kelsey, Keith
OG
Isidora, Danny
OT
Heck, Jon
QB
Torgersen, Alek
Webb, Davis
RB
Clement, Corey
Folston, Tarean
Mack, Marlon
Pumphrey, Donnel
S
Conner, Tony

10
QB
Dobbs, Joshua
Rush, Cooper
RB
Freeman, Royce
WR
Robinette, Jalen
S
Sanders, Dominick

11
K
Carlson, Daniel
OLB
Price, Ejuan
QB
Lunt, Wes
Mullens, Nick
RB
Hunt, Kareem
Mathers, I'Tavius
TE
Everett, Gerald

12
ILB
Beckwith, Kendell
QB
Evans, Dane
Hill, Taysom
RB
Conner, James
TE
Jarwin, Blake

13
OT
Gennesy, Avery
QB
Leidner, Mitch
TE
Odom, Phazahn

14
OT
Skipper, Dan
QB
Beathard, C.J.
Russell, Seth
Last edited by karhu on Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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karhu
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C
5
Elflein, Pat
6
Orlosky, Tyler
Pocic, Ethan
7
Fuller, Kyle

CB
2
Lattimore, Marshon
3
Conley, Gareon
Humphrey, Marlon
King, Kevin
Moreau, Fabian
4
Douglas, Rasul
Griffin, Shaquill
Jackson, Adoree'
King, Desmond
Myrick, Jalen
Sutton, Cameron
Tabor, Teez
Thomas, Jordan
Witherspoon, Ahkello
5
Awuzie, Chidobe
Coleman, Xavier
Cutrer, Jeremy
Facyson, Brandon
Kazee, Damontae
Lewis, Jourdan
White, Marquez
White, Tre'Davious
Holsey, Joshua
Jones*, Sidney
6
Elder, Corn
Paris, Ed
Stewart, *M.J.
Stribling, Channing
Tankersley, Cordrea
7
Luke, Cole
Nichols, Deatrick
Tocho, Jack
Wilson, Brandon
8
Allen, Brian
Langley, Brendan

DE
2
Allen, Jonathan
Thomas, Solomon
3
McDowell, Malik
Wise Jr., Deatrich
4
Kpassagnon, Tanoh
5
Adams, Montravius
Godchaux, Davon
Wormley, Chris
6
Glasgow, Ryan
Jones, Jarron
Vanderdoes, Eddie
7
Johnson, Jaleel
Ledbetter, Jeremiah
Watkins, Carlos
8
Ricard, Patrick

DT
3
Ogunjobi, Larry
4
Augusta, Josh
5
Jones, D.J.
Qualls, Elijah
6
Henderson, Roderick
Jones, DJ
8
Tupou, Josh

ILB
4
Brown, Blair
Davis, Jarrad
Foster, Reuben
Haynes, Marquis
Walker Jr., Anthony
5
Cunningham, Zach
Reddick, Haason
Riley, Duke
Anzalone, Alex
7
Bullough, Riley
Milano, Matt
8
Mulumba Tshimanga, Christophe
Orimolade, Folarin
9
Ellis, Brooks
Kelsey, Keith
12
Beckwith, Kendell

K
11
Carlson, Daniel

OG
4
Feeney, Dan
5
Dawkins, Dion
Johnson, Dorian
Mama, Damien
6
Asiata, Isaac
Lamp, Forrest
Price, Billy
Siragusa, Nico
7
Roullier, Chase
9
Isidora, Danny

OLB
1
Garrett, Myles
3
Barnett, Derek
Charlton, Taco
Willis, Jordan
Watt, TJ
4
Bowser, Tyus
Harris, Charles
Hendrickson, Trey
Lawson, Carl
Lewis, Tyquan
McKinley, Takkarist
Williams, Tim
5
Basham, Tarell
Bellamy, Davin
Hall, Daeshon
Rivers, Derek
6
Anderson, Ryan
Biegel, Vince
Mathis, Joe
Smoot, Dawuane
Landry, Harold
7
Cox, Bryan
Davis, Keionta
Malveaux, Cameron
Nwachukwu, Noble
8
Carraway, Josh
11
Price, Ejuan

OT
3
Moton, Taylor
Ramczyk, Ryan
Robinson, Cam
Bolles, Garett
5
Collins, Aviante
Davenport, Julie'n
Johnson, Roderick
Wheeler, Chad
6
Bisnowaty, Adam
Garcia, Antonio
7
Dielman, J.J.
Magnuson, Erik
8
McDermott, Conor
9
Heck, Jon
13
Gennesy, Avery
14
Skipper, Dan

QB
3
Kizer, DeShone
Trubisky, Mitch
Watson, Deshaun
4
Mahomes II, Patrick
7
Gustafson, Brady
Kaaya, Brad
Liufau, Sefo
8
Kelly, Chad
Peterman, Nathan
9
Webb, Davis
Torgersen, Alek
10
Dobbs, Joshua
Rush, Cooper
11
Lunt, Wes
Mullens, Nick
12
Evans, Dane
Hill, Taysom
13
Leidner, Mitch
14
Beathard, C.J.
Russell, Seth

RB
2
Fournette, Leonard
3
McCaffrey, Christian
4
Chubb, Nick
Cook, Dalvin
5
Gallman, Wayne
McGuire, Elijah
McNichols, Jeremy
Perine, Samaje
Kamara, Alvin
Williams, Stanley
6
Hood, Elijah
Jones, Aaron
8
Henderson, De'Angelo
9
Clement, Corey
Folston, Tarean
Mack, Marlon
Pumphrey, Donnel
10
Freeman, Royce
11
Hunt, Kareem
Mathers, I'Tavius
12
Conner, James

TE
3
Howard, O.J.
4
Kittle, George
Njoku, David
5
Hodges, Bucky
6
Butt, Jake
Engram, Evan
Odom, Phazahn
Smith, Jonnu
Shaheen, Adam
7
Smythe, Durham
8
Burns, Barrett
Hikutini, Cole
Leggett, Jordan
Roberts, Michael
Saubert, Eric
Auclair, Antony
11
Everett, Gerald
12
Jarwin, Blake
13
Odom, Phazahn

WR
3
Davis, Corey
Ross, John
4
Dupre, Malachi
Godwin, Chris
Smith-Schuster, JuJu
Williams, Mike
5
Darboh, Amara
Davis, Robert
Dural, Travin
Golladay, Kenny
Jones, Zay
Ross, Fred
Scott, Artavis
Switzer, Ryan
Westbrook, Dede
6
Chesson, Jehu
Ford, Isaiah
Reynolds, Josh
Rudolph, Travis
Sperbeck, Thomas
Taylor, Taywan
7
Adeboyejo, Quincy
Coley, Stacy
Kupp, Cooper
Quick, James
Rector, Michael
Stringfellow, Damore'ea
8
Brown, Billy
Carrington II, Darren
Etta-Tawo, Amba
10
Robinette, Jalen

S
2
Adams, Jamal
Hooker, Malik
3
Melifonwu, Obi
4
Baker, Budda
Peppers, Jabrill
Williams, Marcus
5
Ford, Johnathan
Johnson, Jadar
Johnson, John
Nacua, Kai
Thompson, Tedric
Jones, Josh
6
Jackson, Eddie
Jones, David
Stewart, Orion
7
Blanding, Quin
Jerome, Lorenzo
Maye, Marcus
8
Barnett, Dante
9
Conner, Tony
10
Sanders, Dominick
Last edited by karhu on Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
So much road and so few places, so much friendliness and so little intimacy, so much flavour and so little taste.

Friendship is better than fighting, but fighting is more useful.
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Atkins&Rebel
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I got time to nitpick a little:

1 RB that I like a lot is Kamara...almost to the point of putting him over McCaffery. With Howard being the focus, Kamara could still do a lot of big play damage out of the back field or even lined up in the slot.

I've also been toying with the idea of putting Njoku ahead of Howard at TE. So I would at least put him in the same tier. And Engram is also too low.

I put Mahomes at the top of the QB list at this point. We don't need a guy to start week 1, and the highest ceiling is Mahomes if he can have the luxury to sit and learn for a season or 2.

I have no love for Allen at DE. I value OLB higher right now anyway and would take either Barnett or Willis over Allen if I traded down and had the choice.

And until we get some concrete info on Trevathon's return time table, Foster has some elevated value. Foster was pretty darn good at rushing the passer too so even when we have Freeman and Danny boy at 100%, we still have the option to turn him loose
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Fair 'nuf. For what it's worth:

Kamara's in a tier that puts him only below Fournette, Cook, and McCaffery; that's not a slight at all. He's there with a very good all-purpose guy in Gallman and some others who'd represent similar changes of pace. (Also, I forgot to delete Nick Chubb).

Blocking rates really highly for me when I think about TEs for the Bears. So Njoku isn't going to leapfrog Howard, and he's rated alongside an infinitely better blocker with better hands and comparable athleticism.

We do see Allen much differently. I see a guy whose handwork reminds me of Andre Tippett's (at this point I should mention that I'm not an Iowa fan), whose vision and awareness are similarly beyond what most current NFLers manage, and who's stout enough to hold his ground when need be. Those things, especially the last two, speak directly to Thomas's weak points. I like 'em both.

Foster's size worries me a bit; if we're all right with an undersized ILB, I love Blair Brown as a day three guy. In any case, the way I drew this up, Trevathan's status might encourage us to choose one of those guys over say a CB if all our guys from tiers 1-3 were gone, but I'd never ever think of choosing him over anyone in those tiers.

Not because anyone asked, but the news about Josh Augusta's thyroid condition was really heartening to me. I mean, great for him that he seems to have gotten it under control, but when you look at how he's moving now that everything's back in order, he might be an ideal NT prospect for us now that Larry Ogunjobi's almost certainly a top-40 guy.
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Good stuff
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FWIW, my tiers break into a "target at this point in the draft" scheme. In my view, that helps maintain value for the spot (when all your guys gone before you make that pick, trade down to a lower tier) and tries to compensate for the "fall in love with a guy and overdraft him" that creeps in every year.

(Full disclosure: I ain't no expert, just a guy with a hobby; if it looks like some of the placements are arbitrary, they might well be. Some players are rated lower than they're projected to go, and some higher. I'm just ranking where I'd be willing to take a shot at 'em.)
QB RB WR TE OT G/C NT 34E EDGE LB CB S
1-8 Garett Boles Jonathan Allen Myles Garrett / Solomon Thomas Kevin King
9-18 Patrick Mahomes II David Njoku Forrest Lamp Jamal Adams / Malik Hooker
19-29 Deshaun Watson OJ Howard Taylor Moton Dion Dawkins Chris Wormley Haason Reddick Akhello Witherspoon Marcus Williams
30-40 John Ross TJ Watt Gareon Conley
41-52 Alvin Kamara Chris Godwin Dan Feeney Larry Ogunjobi Derek Rivers Blair Brown Marlon Humphrey Obi Melifonwu
53-64 Zay Jones Eric Saubert Julie'n Davenport Tanoh Kpassagnon Tyus Bowser Vince Biegel Justin Evans
65-76 Nate Peterman Marlon Mack Amara Darboh Jeremy Sprinkle Nico Siragusa Dalvin Tomlinson V. "Taco" Charlton Jordan Willis Cordrea Tankersley Marcus Maye
77-88 J. Smith-Schuster Bucky Hodges Conor Mcdermott Ryan Glasgow Quincy Wilson John Johnson
89-100 Kareem Hunt Taywan Taylor Adam Shaheen Aviante Collins Eddie Vanderdoes Daeshon Hall Ben Gedeon Rasul Douglas Delano Hill
101-114 Joshua Dobbs Brian Hill Robert Davis Jylan Ware Vincent Taylor Duke Riley Shaquill Griffin Jadar Johnson
115-128 Jeremy McNichols Curtis Samuel Jordan Leggett Alex Anzalone Brian Allen Rayshawn Jenkins
129-142 Jerod Evans Shelton Gibson Jonnu Smith DJ Jones
143-156 Kenny Golladay George Kittle Isaac Asiata Jeremiah Ledbetter Eddie Jackson / Jeremy Clark
157-172 Jalen Robinette Jake Butt Sam Tevi Grover Stewart
173-184 Quincy Adeboyejo Michael Roberts Dieugot Joseph Josh Harvey-Clemons
185-196 Krishawn Hogan Darrell Daniels Corey Levin Deatrich Wise Jr Brendan Langley
197-208 DeAngelo Yancey / Michael Rector Patrick Ricard Pita Teumoepenu
209-224 Alek Torgersen Chad Williams Brandon Barnes Richie Brown
225-UDFA I'Tavius Mathers Tony Stephens / Jerome Lane / Trey Griffey Andy Avgi Kent Perkins Jonathan Calvin Ben Boulware Chuck Clark / Shalom Luani
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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@thunder - no Marshon Lattimore?
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DaSuperfan wrote:@thunder - no Marshon Lattimore?
Short arms/wingspan, tender hamstrings, and a little too iffy as a tackler for my taste. (Your mileage may vary.)

Loads of upside, though, if he can stay on the field; he's certainly fast enough and shows good agility on tape.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
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thunderspirit wrote:
DaSuperfan wrote:@thunder - no Marshon Lattimore?
Short arms/wingspan, tender hamstrings, and a little too iffy as a tackler for my taste. (Your mileage may vary.)

Loads of upside, though, if he can stay on the field; he's certainly fast enough and shows good agility on tape.
Yeah, the only guy I really liked in the top 10 was Sidney Jones...which I would like to see where you'd put him with the injury.
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:
thunderspirit wrote:
DaSuperfan wrote:@thunder - no Marshon Lattimore?
Short arms/wingspan, tender hamstrings, and a little too iffy as a tackler for my taste. (Your mileage may vary.)

Loads of upside, though, if he can stay on the field; he's certainly fast enough and shows good agility on tape.
Yeah, the only guy I really liked in the top 10 was Sidney Jones...which I would like to see where you'd put him with the injury.
Conley's prob going to be the more productive pro, once he gets his press technique down, he's going to be very, very good.
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:
thunderspirit wrote:
DaSuperfan wrote:@thunder - no Marshon Lattimore?
Short arms/wingspan, tender hamstrings, and a little too iffy as a tackler for my taste. (Your mileage may vary.)

Loads of upside, though, if he can stay on the field; he's certainly fast enough and shows good agility on tape.
Yeah, the only guy I really liked in the top 10 was Sidney Jones...which I would like to see where you'd put him with the injury.
I liked Jones, but honestly wasn't sure he'd ever be more than a nickel/slot CB at his weight. (Jones also has shorter arms/wingspan than I like at corner, but that's nitpicking.)

Obviously the Achilles injury is troubling; even with modern medicine, there's no guarantee he'll have the same level of quickness, which was second-best part of his game (after ball skills). I personally might roll the dice early on Day 3 — the years of Angelo drafting pre-injured guys probably has made me much more skittish than I might otherwise be — and I suspect some team, one with a decent secondary who can afford a medical redshirt year, will gamble before then.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
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Recently saw an interesting Tweet storm about DBs targeted in Pace's last couple of years with New Orleans and his two years with the Bears — vertical and broad jumps appear to be key, even for UDFAs — which caused movement on my list and some additions/subtractions.

Additionally, I had a debate a few days ago with someone that altered my draft philosophy somewhat; basically, everything after the middle of Round 5 or so should be treated as an extended UDFA period, so identify rare traits and draft those. Preliminary research shows some merit to that approach, though it merits more investigation.

Lastly, I also tweaked this as much toward what I see as fits for the Bears as possible.

Final tier chart, with changes.
Last edited by thunderspirit on Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
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Thanks for mentioning that, thunder. I wonder if it has to do with NO's propensity for playing three safeties. The vertical, at least, is the most telling combine event for safeties, according to the Harvard Sports Nerd Stat Thingy (sorry, I've been breathing polyurethane fumes for a day and a half). Next comes the cone. For CBs, it's the 40 and of all things weight.
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For CBs, 40 time of course makes sense. Weight (BMI, more accurately) makes some sense too, actually, since small guys tend to get hurt a lot in this game.

The tweets I mentioned are here and here. Despite the numbers presented, I didn't consider much before 2013 as Pace worked on the pro player side in New Orleans before that, so I'm not sure how relevant the draft trends are. But the tendency with the Bears has certainly been clear.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
:shocked:
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