I like Adams as a prospect, but I tend to agree with Gabriel on that. He's not Eric Berry or Sean Taylor.G08 wrote:I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.
Jamal Adams - #3 overall?
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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I 100% agree that trading down is the way to go. But do you really think somebody is going to want to pay the price to move up to #3? If what is being said here--that you can get about the same value in the early teens as you're getting at 3, why would anyone trade up? Seems to me that the odds of getting a trade down partner is slim and none with this draft.wab wrote:Mine is:G08 wrote:Oh I hear ya... I just fear that it's a legit option right now for Pace.
It seems like I change this daily but currently I've got it as:
Solomon Thomas
Deshaun Watson
Jonathan Allen
Jamal Adams
Trade down...then exactly as you have it.
Just another reason the Bears are screwed this year.
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There's almost always a market to trade down. The price may not be what you want to get, though.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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At the same time, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu were among the five best players in their drafts. Earl Thomas too, maybe, though his draft would've put the others in doubt, too.thunderspirit wrote:I like Adams as a prospect, but I tend to agree with Gabriel on that. He's not Eric Berry or Sean Taylor.G08 wrote:I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.
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Exactly why you go with Hooker over Adams.G08 wrote:I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.
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OK. But do you trade down from 3 to 11 for another 4th round pick? Or even a 3rd? That's historically ridiculous.thunderspirit wrote:There's almost always a market to trade down. The price may not be what you want to get, though.
I thought about your post and imagined a gigantic bingo board over the stage with lights for every pick arranged by round with the current on the clock pick flashing and team color coded lights lit up with each team's best offer for the current (flashing) on the clock pick. Unless a team wants to trade a player, that would save a lot of phone calls.
Mikefive's theory: The only time you KNOW that a sports team player, coach or management member is being 100% honest is when they're NOT reciting "the company line".
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But if he's the highest rated player on your board when you're on the clock, you can throw that history out the window. Every draft is different, which means draft picks are relative to that particular draft's players. This year's draft, outside of Garrett, doesn't feature elite top end talent. So, a safety going top 5 isn't that hard to imagine.G08 wrote:I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.
Gabriel provides some good insight, but he's one of those crotchety old guys that speaks in absolutes based on how the game was played when he was in the business. He won't aknowledge the fact that the game is changing and evolving and the safety position is becoming more and more important.
That said, I'm still a firm believer in building from inside out. It's just that this year, the best player possibly on the board at 3 will be a safety.
Last edited by mshu7 on Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:43 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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And let's be honest: Gabriel's not exactly Jim Finks.
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I still think if we're staying at 3, we should take a shot at Watson. The QB situation is far from resolved and no matter how many great, talented defensive players we accumulate, it's not a really a recipe for long term, sustained success IMO. Watson has his flaws, no doubt. But he's just the type of QB and leader the team needs. He will work harder than any of the other QB's IMO - not to mention he has a lot of talent and he's clutch.
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DaSuperfan wrote:I still think if we're staying at 3, we should take a shot at Watson. The QB situation is far from resolved and no matter how many great, talented defensive players we accumulate, it's not a really a recipe for long term, sustained success IMO. Watson has his flaws, no doubt. But he's just the type of QB and leader the team needs. He will work harder than any of the other QB's IMO - not to mention he has a lot of talent and he's clutch
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Found this interesting:
Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.
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I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.G08 wrote:Found this interesting:
Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.
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Which is a hugh part of the reason that no team out of the top 10 will be willing to trade up to #3 with the Bears.Mr.Irrelevant wrote:I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.G08 wrote:Found this interesting:
Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.
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I can't find the original, but that's either incorrect or misleading, depending on the exact wording.G08 wrote:Found this interesting:
Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.
There's top safeties with plenty more than 5M in guarantee and most are young enough that they will very likely get their full contract.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Obviously, a safety at 3 has to be pretty good to fit into that company and be a decent value.
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whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3
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If his shoulders check out, I think it's going to be Jonathan Allen.Boris13c wrote:whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3
Fits a huge need at 5T, can kick inside to 3T in sub packages (or nose if you want to go that route), and he's a hedge if Hicks wants to break the bank in 2018.
Hell of a guy off the field as well, clean character/leader which is right up Pace's alley.
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I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.
He's the only one they have met with multiple times.
He's the only one they have met with multiple times.
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Yup. I wish he had more juice but he just doesn't.wab wrote:I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.
He's the only one they have met with multiple times.
I see a "weaker" Justin Smith in his game.
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I mean, I suppose he'll be fine. I don't see Hicks sticking around unless they completely give up on Bullard. Bullard and Allen are just such similar players.
TENDANCY is a great method for scouting a player, coach or team's "next move". With that said, let's look at Pace's draft tendancy since arriving in Chicago in 2015.
Based on Pace's first 2 drafts, he likes to go after play-makers / high-ceiling / high-risk / boom or bust type guys in the 1st round. He's swinging for the fences basically. I don't see any offensive or defensive lineman (non-LB's) a fit for Pace's R1 selection so we can probably cross J. Allen off the list.
2015 R1: K. White
2016 R1: L. Flloyd
In rounds 2 and 3, he likes to then start building from the "inside-out", solidifying the trenches, getting as much value with that pick as he can, even trading down to get more value.
2015 R2: E. Goldman
2015 R3: H. Grasu
2016 R2: C. Whitehair
2016 R3: J. Bullard
With all that said, I have no clue what players Pace covets in the draft. But based on his tendancies over his first 2 drafts, I think we can gain a pretty good idea of the "player profile" that he is looking for.
The only caveat I'll add is injury. Both White & Flloyd have had injury issues since coming into the league. I don't think Pace can or will risk drafting a player in R1 this year that has injury concerns. Not only would he get raked over the coals by fans and media, but that could be 3 R1 strikes in 3 years. I could definitely see Pace going more conservative in regards to injury history with his R1 pick. If thats the case, put another line through J. Allen and cross Hooker & Lattimore off the list as well.
So, who fit's those profiles?
Based on Pace's first 2 drafts, he likes to go after play-makers / high-ceiling / high-risk / boom or bust type guys in the 1st round. He's swinging for the fences basically. I don't see any offensive or defensive lineman (non-LB's) a fit for Pace's R1 selection so we can probably cross J. Allen off the list.
2015 R1: K. White
2016 R1: L. Flloyd
In rounds 2 and 3, he likes to then start building from the "inside-out", solidifying the trenches, getting as much value with that pick as he can, even trading down to get more value.
2015 R2: E. Goldman
2015 R3: H. Grasu
2016 R2: C. Whitehair
2016 R3: J. Bullard
With all that said, I have no clue what players Pace covets in the draft. But based on his tendancies over his first 2 drafts, I think we can gain a pretty good idea of the "player profile" that he is looking for.
The only caveat I'll add is injury. Both White & Flloyd have had injury issues since coming into the league. I don't think Pace can or will risk drafting a player in R1 this year that has injury concerns. Not only would he get raked over the coals by fans and media, but that could be 3 R1 strikes in 3 years. I could definitely see Pace going more conservative in regards to injury history with his R1 pick. If thats the case, put another line through J. Allen and cross Hooker & Lattimore off the list as well.
So, who fit's those profiles?
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I think it'll be a QB or Thomas. I originally thought Hooker would be his pick, but with all the S depth we have now and his injury, I don't think he'll get picked at #3 any more.mshu7 wrote:TENDANCY
So, who fit's those profiles?
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Boom or bust guys I see are Mahomes, Njoku, Reddick, and Cook... and of that list I guess Mahomes is a need and Njoku is a fit?
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Pace's trend uses both high risk/reward and elite athleticism. If we work under the assumption that Pace will follow that trend for 2017, you are looking for that level of athlete with corresponding tape that projects into the first round. For reference, Kevin White and Leonard Floyd both were in the 90th percentile athlete category based on their NFL Combine numbers; I'm only considering guys who worked out at the Combine here.
crueltyabc is correct about David Njoku, but Njoku has company; Evan Engram is right there with him athletically and production-wise. I think Njoku goes top 10, so he could conceivably be in play at #3; and I'll be surprised if Engram isn't a first-rounder as well come draft day.
From the WRs, Zay Jones and Chris Godwin are elite athletes, and have good enough tape to go on Day 1. No RBs or offensive linemen fit the elite athleticism thresholds; Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey rank highest at RB, while Garett Boles and Forrest Lamp rank highest at OL. For the Bears' purposes, I like Boles a lot but I'd be surprised to see him at #3 overall. You'd be getting the best offensive line athlete overall, though. I doubt Pace looks at WR until Day 2 or RB until Day 3 in any case.
Defensively, Solomon Thomas is an obvious choice: both first-round tape and athleticism. Haason Reddick and TJ Watt aren't far behind. (I presume that Myles Garrett would also qualify, had he done the 3-cone and/or short shuttle at the Combine.) The guy who defensively is a dark horse at #3 is Kevin King, who checks all the boxes of a Fangio CB — he's tall, long, and is a willing tackler with experience at safety — and is a 99th percentile athlete. His tape is inconsistent, but if he hits, he's a home run. Colorado's Akhello Witherspoon is a notch below but still 92nd percentile. I'd bet money that both King and Witherspoon are gonna go in the top half of the first.
Jonathan Allen and Jamal Adams both look like they fit the "good football players on Day 2" approach Pace appears to use rather than "elite athlete/upside" approach he seems to have for Day 1. I would be surprised if either is the choice at #3.
All of this goes out the window if Pace goes QB, of course. We have no reference for his evaluation of QB beyond the vapid words he's used to identify the traits for which he's looking.
crueltyabc is correct about David Njoku, but Njoku has company; Evan Engram is right there with him athletically and production-wise. I think Njoku goes top 10, so he could conceivably be in play at #3; and I'll be surprised if Engram isn't a first-rounder as well come draft day.
From the WRs, Zay Jones and Chris Godwin are elite athletes, and have good enough tape to go on Day 1. No RBs or offensive linemen fit the elite athleticism thresholds; Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey rank highest at RB, while Garett Boles and Forrest Lamp rank highest at OL. For the Bears' purposes, I like Boles a lot but I'd be surprised to see him at #3 overall. You'd be getting the best offensive line athlete overall, though. I doubt Pace looks at WR until Day 2 or RB until Day 3 in any case.
Defensively, Solomon Thomas is an obvious choice: both first-round tape and athleticism. Haason Reddick and TJ Watt aren't far behind. (I presume that Myles Garrett would also qualify, had he done the 3-cone and/or short shuttle at the Combine.) The guy who defensively is a dark horse at #3 is Kevin King, who checks all the boxes of a Fangio CB — he's tall, long, and is a willing tackler with experience at safety — and is a 99th percentile athlete. His tape is inconsistent, but if he hits, he's a home run. Colorado's Akhello Witherspoon is a notch below but still 92nd percentile. I'd bet money that both King and Witherspoon are gonna go in the top half of the first.
Jonathan Allen and Jamal Adams both look like they fit the "good football players on Day 2" approach Pace appears to use rather than "elite athlete/upside" approach he seems to have for Day 1. I would be surprised if either is the choice at #3.
All of this goes out the window if Pace goes QB, of course. We have no reference for his evaluation of QB beyond the vapid words he's used to identify the traits for which he's looking.
Last edited by thunderspirit on Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
Great post thunderspirit! I forgot about his tendancy for valuing elite athleticism. I could be wrong, but weren't a lot of his 2015 picks the fastest 40 yard dash guys as well? Langford is one of the ones I'm thinking of.
Anyway, that's a lot of great info you've shared in your post. Thanks!
Anyway, that's a lot of great info you've shared in your post. Thanks!
Last edited by mshu7 on Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.G08 wrote:One of these, in no particular order:
Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker
Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.
So Hooker doesn't possess elite physical traits? And Fuller is a goner?? That's news to me.wab wrote:Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.G08 wrote:One of these, in no particular order:
Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker
Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.
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The only reason I pause on Lattimore is because of how deep the corner class is this year.wab wrote:Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.G08 wrote:One of these, in no particular order:
Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker
Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.
Thomas makes a ton of sense but I have a feeling San Fran is going to draft him.
I'm kind of hoping we can trade back a few spots, pick up a 2nd rounder, and then take one of the safeties.
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I feel like you just look at draft tweets and don't actually pay attention to what is happening on this team.Adipost wrote:So Hooker doesn't possess elite physical traits? And Fuller is a goner?? That's news to me.wab wrote:Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.G08 wrote:One of these, in no particular order:
Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker
Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.
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I missed one: Utah safety Marcus Williams also fits.
He doesn't have the same upside that Kevin King has, but has better overall tape than either King or Witherspoon, and he's in the 93rd percentile athletically.
He doesn't have the same upside that Kevin King has, but has better overall tape than either King or Witherspoon, and he's in the 93rd percentile athletically.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct