Jamal Adams - #3 overall?

[G08]

So... the Bears just signed Demps...and if you draft Adams at #3...what happens to:

Harold Jones-Quartey
Adrian Amos
Deon Bush
DeAndre Houston-Carson
Chris Prosinski

Prosinski isn't a lock, and to a lesser extent HJQ probably isn't either, but they've spent considerable time and effort trying to develop the young guys. Bush and Amos were drafted to be starters. Demps was brought in to help those guys along. It's too early to start cutting draft picks.

HJQ is a bum
Amos is depth
Bush sucks and isn't ready
DHC seems to be a 4 phase special teamer
Prosinski is literally JAG

Adams and Demps start, Amos and Bush are depth, DHC is ST only. Prosinski likely gets cut, HJQ might as well based on the numbers game.

[FaithInCutler]

So... the Bears just signed Demps...and if you draft Adams at #3...what happens to:

Harold Jones-Quartey
Adrian Amos
Deon Bush
DeAndre Houston-Carson
Chris Prosinski

Prosinski isn't a lock, and to a lesser extent HJQ probably isn't either, but they've spent considerable time and effort trying to develop the young guys. Bush and Amos were drafted to be starters. Demps was brought in to help those guys along. It's too early to start cutting draft picks.

HJQ is a bum
Amos is depth
Bush sucks and isn't ready
DHC seems to be a 4 phase special teamer
Prosinski is literally JAG

Adams and Demps start, Amos and Bush are depth, DHC is ST only. Prosinski likely gets cut, HJQ might as well based on the numbers game.

This is EXACTLY the way I see it. The drafting of Adams would give us a sold block of 4 players I would feel good about at the safety position. I love the idea of Amos and Bush as back-ups. I love the idea of Demps and Adams as our starters.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

So... the Bears just signed Demps...and if you draft Adams at #3...what happens to:

Harold Jones-Quartey
Adrian Amos
Deon Bush
DeAndre Houston-Carson
Chris Prosinski

Prosinski isn't a lock, and to a lesser extent HJQ probably isn't either, but they've spent considerable time and effort trying to develop the young guys. Bush and Amos were drafted to be starters. Demps was brought in to help those guys along. It's too early to start cutting draft picks.

HJQ is a bum
Amos is depth
Bush sucks and isn't ready
DHC seems to be a 4 phase special teamer
Prosinski is literally JAG

Adams and Demps start, Amos and Bush are depth, DHC is ST only. Prosinski likely gets cut, HJQ might as well based on the numbers game.

This is EXACTLY the way I see it. The drafting of Adams would give us a sold block of 4 players I would feel good about at the safety position. I love the idea of Amos and Bush as back-ups. I love the idea of Demps and Adams as our starters.

and I love the idea of saying goodbye to HJQ and Prosinski

[wab]

You don't keep throwing bodies at a deep position group when you have so many other holes on a team. You draft these guys and try to develop them.

The numbers at the position alone negate the need to draft Adams at #3.

[wab]

And if they draft Adams, I won't scream an shout and throw my hands up and wonder what the hell they are doing. But I will feel like it's not a great value.

[G08]

And if they draft Adams, I won't scream an shout and throw my hands up and wonder what the hell they are doing. But I will feel like it's not a great value.

They weren't high picks though, man. Amos was a 5th, Bush and DHC were 4th rounders. Not that it detracts from your statement, but there's nothing wrong with getting a couple 4 phase special teamers out of a couple day 3 picks.

[wab]

And if they draft Adams, I won't scream an shout and throw my hands up and wonder what the hell they are doing. But I will feel like it's not a great value.

They weren't high picks though, man. Amos was a 5th, Bush and DHC were 4th rounders. Not that it detracts from your statement, but there's nothing wrong with getting a couple 4 phase special teamers out of a couple day 3 picks.

Mainly I'm not on board with taking a safety at #3. If the Bears were picking at say, 11...then fine.

The top 5 (IMO) is reserved for quarterbacks, guys that protect quarterbacks, and guys that sack quarterbacks. Unfortunately there's only one...maybe two of those guys that meet that criteria.

I'm 100% behind the Bears trying to trade down now that they've ruined everything by signing Glennon, because I don't think the players they would be picking from are rated all that differently than guys they can get outside of the top 10.

[G08]

Oh I hear ya... I just fear that it's a legit option right now for Pace.

It seems like I change this daily but currently I've got it as:

Solomon Thomas
Deshaun Watson
Jonathan Allen
Jamal Adams

[wab]

Oh I hear ya... I just fear that it's a legit option right now for Pace.

It seems like I change this daily but currently I've got it as:

Solomon Thomas
Deshaun Watson
Jonathan Allen
Jamal Adams

Mine is:
Trade down...then exactly as you have it.

[G08]

I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.

[thunderspirit]

I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.

I like Adams as a prospect, but I tend to agree with Gabriel on that. He's not Eric Berry or Sean Taylor.

[Mikefive]

Oh I hear ya... I just fear that it's a legit option right now for Pace.

It seems like I change this daily but currently I've got it as:

Solomon Thomas
Deshaun Watson
Jonathan Allen
Jamal Adams

Mine is:
Trade down...then exactly as you have it.

I 100% agree that trading down is the way to go. But do you really think somebody is going to want to pay the price to move up to #3? If what is being said here--that you can get about the same value in the early teens as you're getting at 3, why would anyone trade up? Seems to me that the odds of getting a trade down partner is slim and none with this draft.

Just another reason the Bears are screwed this year.

[thunderspirit]

There's almost always a market to trade down. The price may not be what you want to get, though.

[karhu]

I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.

I like Adams as a prospect, but I tend to agree with Gabriel on that. He's not Eric Berry or Sean Taylor.

At the same time, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu were among the five best players in their drafts. Earl Thomas too, maybe, though his draft would've put the others in doubt, too.

[Adipost]

I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.

Exactly why you go with Hooker over Adams.

[Mikefive]

There's almost always a market to trade down. The price may not be what you want to get, though.

OK. But do you trade down from 3 to 11 for another 4th round pick? Or even a 3rd? That's historically ridiculous.

I thought about your post and imagined a gigantic bingo board over the stage with lights for every pick arranged by round with the current on the clock pick flashing and team color coded lights lit up with each team's best offer for the current (flashing) on the clock pick. Unless a team wants to trade a player, that would save a lot of phone calls.

[mshu7]

I was DMing with Gabriel and he was like #3 is too rich for Jamal Adams. He said only 3 safeties went top 5 in the past 25 years, two of them had elite traits and the third one busted. He said Adams doesn't have any elite traits.

But if he's the highest rated player on your board when you're on the clock, you can throw that history out the window. Every draft is different, which means draft picks are relative to that particular draft's players. This year's draft, outside of Garrett, doesn't feature elite top end talent. So, a safety going top 5 isn't that hard to imagine.

Gabriel provides some good insight, but he's one of those crotchety old guys that speaks in absolutes based on how the game was played when he was in the business. He won't aknowledge the fact that the game is changing and evolving and the safety position is becoming more and more important.

That said, I'm still a firm believer in building from inside out. It's just that this year, the best player possibly on the board at 3 will be a safety.

[karhu]

And let's be honest: Gabriel's not exactly Jim Finks.

[DaSuperfan]

I still think if we're staying at 3, we should take a shot at Watson. The QB situation is far from resolved and no matter how many great, talented defensive players we accumulate, it's not a really a recipe for long term, sustained success IMO. Watson has his flaws, no doubt. But he's just the type of QB and leader the team needs. He will work harder than any of the other QB's IMO - not to mention he has a lot of talent and he's clutch.

[IotaNet]

I still think if we're staying at 3, we should take a shot at Watson. The QB situation is far from resolved and no matter how many great, talented defensive players we accumulate, it's not a really a recipe for long term, sustained success IMO. Watson has his flaws, no doubt. But he's just the type of QB and leader the team needs. He will work harder than any of the other QB's IMO - not to mention he has a lot of talent and he's clutch

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[G08]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.

[Middleguard]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.

Which is a hugh part of the reason that no team out of the top 10 will be willing to trade up to #3 with the Bears.

[Moriarty]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I can't find the original, but that's either incorrect or misleading, depending on the exact wording.

There's top safeties with plenty more than 5M in guarantee and most are young enough that they will very likely get their full contract.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Obviously, a safety at 3 has to be pretty good to fit into that company and be a decent value.

[Boris13c]

whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3

[G08]

whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3

If his shoulders check out, I think it's going to be Jonathan Allen.

Fits a huge need at 5T, can kick inside to 3T in sub packages (or nose if you want to go that route), and he's a hedge if Hicks wants to break the bank in 2018.

Hell of a guy off the field as well, clean character/leader which is right up Pace's alley.

[wab]

I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.

He's the only one they have met with multiple times.

[G08]

I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.

He's the only one they have met with multiple times.

Yup. I wish he had more juice but he just doesn't.

I see a "weaker" Justin Smith in his game.

[wab]

I mean, I suppose he'll be fine. I don't see Hicks sticking around unless they completely give up on Bullard. Bullard and Allen are just such similar players.

[mshu7]

TENDANCY is a great method for scouting a player, coach or team's "next move". With that said, let's look at Pace's draft tendancy since arriving in Chicago in 2015.

Based on Pace's first 2 drafts, he likes to go after play-makers / high-ceiling / high-risk / boom or bust type guys in the 1st round. He's swinging for the fences basically. I don't see any offensive or defensive lineman (non-LB's) a fit for Pace's R1 selection so we can probably cross J. Allen off the list.

2015 R1: K. White
2016 R1: L. Flloyd

In rounds 2 and 3, he likes to then start building from the "inside-out", solidifying the trenches, getting as much value with that pick as he can, even trading down to get more value.

2015 R2: E. Goldman
2015 R3: H. Grasu

2016 R2: C. Whitehair
2016 R3: J. Bullard

With all that said, I have no clue what players Pace covets in the draft. But based on his tendancies over his first 2 drafts, I think we can gain a pretty good idea of the "player profile" that he is looking for.

The only caveat I'll add is injury. Both White & Flloyd have had injury issues since coming into the league. I don't think Pace can or will risk drafting a player in R1 this year that has injury concerns. Not only would he get raked over the coals by fans and media, but that could be 3 R1 strikes in 3 years. I could definitely see Pace going more conservative in regards to injury history with his R1 pick. If thats the case, put another line through J. Allen and cross Hooker & Lattimore off the list as well.

So, who fit's those profiles?