Where will the top 5 QB's be drafted?

[Boris13c]

every day there is a new mock draft changing where the 2017 QB's will be drafted ... and every day there are new stories about why each is rising on the draft board or falling ... I can't make heads or tails of how this draft is going to go and may be the first draft day I actually watch for a change just to see what sort of madness will prevail

so since none of the experts can come to a consensus, and it seems we on this board also have varying degrees of how these guys are being rated, time to make your guesses as to where these guys will go

the 5 QB's are : Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubinsky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshone Kizer, and Brad Kaaya

Select the round they will be picked. To show added guessing ability, select the position selected and team selecting them.

My guess :

* Deshaun Watson - First Round ... Number 3 to the Bears is what I wanted, but appears unlikely, so I am picking Cleveland to move up from # 12 if they have to in order to get him

* Mitchell Trubinsky - First round ... number 6 to the Patriots after their draft day trade of Jimmy Garropollo to the Jets

* Patrick Mahomes - Second round ... number 34 to the 49ers

* Deshone Kizer - third round ... number 77 to the Cardinals

* Brad Kaaya - fourth round ... number 111 to the Bears (I'll hate this, but to me it seems the most likely scenario for the Bears)

your turn

[wab]

I can't see the Pats trading Jimmy to a division rival.

[Boris13c]

I can't see the Pats trading Jimmy to a division rival.

I can, so Belichick can laugh twice a year at how much different (worse) Jimmy G is not running the Patriots Offense

[G08]

I think Watson/Trubisky/Mahomes go in round 1

I think Peterman and Kizer go in round 2

I think Kaaya goes in round 4

[wab]

I think Davis Webb goes in the 3rd, but possibly as early as R2.

[FaithInCutler]

My guess is-
Watson and Mitch will go round 1.
Mahomes, Kizer, Peterman will go round 2.
Webb Rd 3.
Kaaya will likely go in the 3rd but could see him dropping.

[BamaBear09]

I think Davis Webb goes in the 3rd, but possibly as early as R2.

I just don't get this Davis Webb hype... dude is so inconsistent at 5-15 yards, pretty much to basic offensive throws he will be required to make in the pros... but it's "ZOMG hez 6foot4 & can zip it 75 yardzzzzz" I just like to imagine anyone who gets hung up strictly on QB size and arm strength is truly a 13 year old girl on twitter inside....

[FaithInCutler]

I think Davis Webb goes in the 3rd, but possibly as early as R2.

I just don't get this Davis Webb hype... dude is so inconsistent at 5-15 yards, pretty much to basic offensive throws he will be required to make in the pros... but it's "ZOMG hez 6foot4 & can zip it 75 yardzzzzz" I just like to imagine anyone who gets hung up strictly on QB size and arm strength is truly a 13 year old girl on twitter inside....

There are 32 teams. Someone will "bang the table" at some point. In theory, you can't teach tall and you can't teach freak arm strength. A guy who is 6'0 tall will never be 6'4, and a guy who cant throw it 65 yards on the move at his pro day, likely wont be able to develop that skill. So If those are the traits you have to begin with, mechanics and accuracy can be improved with time and coaching. That's what you get in the fourth round and beyond. If someone really thinks he is a fit for their team they could easily take him in the third.

[thunderspirit]

I think Davis Webb goes in the 3rd, but possibly as early as R2.

I just don't get this Davis Webb hype... dude is so inconsistent at 5-15 yards, pretty much to basic offensive throws he will be required to make in the pros... but it's "ZOMG hez 6foot4 & can zip it 75 yardzzzzz" I just like to imagine anyone who gets hung up strictly on QB size and arm strength is truly a 13 year old girl on twitter inside....

There are 32 teams. Someone will "bang the table" at some point. In theory, you can't teach tall and you can't teach freak arm strength. A guy who is 6'0 tall will never be 6'4, and a guy who cant throw it 65 yards on the move at his pro day, likely wont be able to develop that skill. So If those are the traits you have to begin with, mechanics and accuracy can be improved with time and coaching. That's what you get in the fourth round and beyond. If someone really thinks he is a fit for their team they could easily take him in the third.

Pretty much the same reason I can't see Kizer getting out of the top 10, and probably not Mahomes either. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me, after all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about this "awful" year for QBs, to see four go in the top 13. Someone's gonna look at those tools and think "I can fix him!"

[DaSuperfan]

I don't see Kizer dropping out of the 1st round, no way.

[Mikefive]

For thunder's reasons, no way in hell Mahomes falls out of R1. The same logic makes me tend to think Kizer won't either.

[BamaBear09]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

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[Rusty Trombagent]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

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for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
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and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

[FranktheTank]

Watson
Mahones
Kizer
Trubisky
Davis Webb

[BamaBear09]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

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for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

I'm getting the feeling that most who have Kizer as QB1 are acting like 2016 didn't happen, like to blame his issues on a young WR corps and all that. It's just excuses I have heard many times before, potential means dick when it doesn't turn into production...

[Rusty Trombagent]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

I'm getting the feeling that most who have Kizer as QB1 are acting like 2016 didn't happen, like to blame his issues on a young WR corps and all that. It's just excuses I have heard many times before, potential means dick when it doesn't turn into production...

i'm not a big college guy so i'm definitely talking out my ass here a bit, but how do you ignore the most recent year for a qb? you're looking at how his mechanics, his decision making, poise, etc have progressed.

is there precedent for this? is there some nfl qb out there who just shat the bed his last year of college and then lit it up in the nfl?

[mmmc_35]

Sam Bradford? Completely different but that's the only one that came to mind.

[Moriarty]

I haven't kept up with all the free agent movement, but it feels like a number of formerly QB desperate teams aren't anymore (like the Bears).

For the moment, let's say:

Trubisky: 2-12
Kizer: 12-25
Watson: R2
Mahomes: R2

5th? Could be any number of guys - Kayaa? Webb? Peterman?
I'd imagine somebody likes one of them in the 3rd

[Rusty Trombagent]

I haven't kept up with all the free agent movement, but it feels like a number of formerly QB desperate teams aren't anymore (like the Bears).

For the moment, let's say:

Trubisky: 2-12
Kizer: 12-25
Watson: R2
Mahomes: R2

5th? Could be any number of guys - Kayaa? Webb? Peterman?
I'd imagine somebody likes one of them in the 3rd

well, any of these teams taking a qb in the first two rounds wouldnt be surprising at all:

-browns
-49ers
-cardinals
-saints
-steelers
-bears
-jets
-texans

trying to play it all smart saying watson is going to go in the second is just you smelling your own farts. look at all these bums who were drafted in the first round over the last ten years:
http://www.thesportster.com/football/ra ... -10-years/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ponder! manuel! manziel! weeden! freeman!
it's even uglier when you look at the second round over the last two years.

[thunderspirit]

Sure, over the last two years. Before that, not as ugly. (Though still not tremendously inspiring.)

I suspect Pace is trying to play this as the 2014 draft, and looking to nab his own Derek Carr. The success of that strategy is, naturally, the question.

[Rusty Trombagent]

oops, meant ten years.

[thunderspirit]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

[Mikefive]

Sure, over the last two years. Before that, not as ugly. (Though still not tremendously inspiring.)

I suspect Pace is trying to play this as the 2014 draft, and looking to nab his own Derek Carr. The success of that strategy is, naturally, the question.

I think it's possible that the Bears either take a QB at #3 or trade down and take one in the top half of R1. But if they don't do that, if one of the top 4 are available at the bottom of R1, Pace will trade R2 and of of those R4s to move up and take whichever's left.

[malk]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

And Glennon is a bronze QB and hence has a 3.9% chance of becoming starter level, hurrah!

[Moriarty]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Interesting.
The Fast Summary I see is:

[*]The system is flawed in that Gold and Silver tiers have a lot of bombs mixed in with successful QBs.
However, that's not as damning as it sounds at first, in that picking QBs is so hard and most QBs selected high are failures, using 'human' methods of selection.

[*]Bronze level QBs are almost always flops. Semi-useful borderline starters is about the best you can hope for.
Glennon and DeShaun Watson are/were Bronzes.

[thunderspirit]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Interesting.
The Fast Summary I see is:

[*]The system is flawed in that Gold and Silver tiers have a lot of bombs mixed in with successful QBs.
However, that's not as damning as it sounds at first, in that picking QBs is so hard and most QBs selected high are failures, using 'human' methods of selection.

[*]Bronze level QBs are almost always flops. Semi-useful borderline starters is about the best you can hope for.
Glennon and DeShaun Watson are/were Bronzes.

For me, that's the net takeaway: no matter what, the "hit rate" on QBs is about one in three, so maximizing your chances means Gold or Silver tier.

[Adipost]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Holy shit, this was fascinating. Thank you! Deserves a thread of its own.

[Boris13c]

I think Watson/Trubisky/Mahomes go in round 1

I think Peterman and Kizer go in round 2

I think Kaaya goes in round 4

I'm revising my thinking on this based on various team reports, and now think Watson/Trubisky/Mahomes/Kizer all go in the first round

[malk]

Trubisky, Kizer, Mahomes in round 1. Watson and Kaaya in 2. In that order.

That's not my ranking though!

[mmmc_35]

Good post thunder.