Where will the top 5 QB's be drafted?

[Mikefive]

For thunder's reasons, no way in hell Mahomes falls out of R1. The same logic makes me tend to think Kizer won't either.

[BamaBear09]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rusty Trombagent]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

[FranktheTank]

Watson
Mahones
Kizer
Trubisky
Davis Webb

[BamaBear09]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

I'm getting the feeling that most who have Kizer as QB1 are acting like 2016 didn't happen, like to blame his issues on a young WR corps and all that. It's just excuses I have heard many times before, potential means dick when it doesn't turn into production...

[Rusty Trombagent]

Sums up my thoughts on Davis Webb being drafted so high..

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for shits i listened to an appearance klassen made on a podcast yesterday talking about his top 5 qb's
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and he's got kizer at number 1, and it's sorta weird. he says at the end of the day his criteria is, who's got the best arm to make all the throws in late game clutch situations. and how he's basically ignoring 2016 and only looking at 2015 for him, and it just feels like these guys started with an answer, and then worked backwards.

I'm getting the feeling that most who have Kizer as QB1 are acting like 2016 didn't happen, like to blame his issues on a young WR corps and all that. It's just excuses I have heard many times before, potential means dick when it doesn't turn into production...

i'm not a big college guy so i'm definitely talking out my ass here a bit, but how do you ignore the most recent year for a qb? you're looking at how his mechanics, his decision making, poise, etc have progressed.

is there precedent for this? is there some nfl qb out there who just shat the bed his last year of college and then lit it up in the nfl?

[mmmc_35]

Sam Bradford? Completely different but that's the only one that came to mind.

[Moriarty]

I haven't kept up with all the free agent movement, but it feels like a number of formerly QB desperate teams aren't anymore (like the Bears).

For the moment, let's say:

Trubisky: 2-12
Kizer: 12-25
Watson: R2
Mahomes: R2

5th? Could be any number of guys - Kayaa? Webb? Peterman?
I'd imagine somebody likes one of them in the 3rd

[Rusty Trombagent]

I haven't kept up with all the free agent movement, but it feels like a number of formerly QB desperate teams aren't anymore (like the Bears).

For the moment, let's say:

Trubisky: 2-12
Kizer: 12-25
Watson: R2
Mahomes: R2

5th? Could be any number of guys - Kayaa? Webb? Peterman?
I'd imagine somebody likes one of them in the 3rd

well, any of these teams taking a qb in the first two rounds wouldnt be surprising at all:

-browns
-49ers
-cardinals
-saints
-steelers
-bears
-jets
-texans

trying to play it all smart saying watson is going to go in the second is just you smelling your own farts. look at all these bums who were drafted in the first round over the last ten years:
http://www.thesportster.com/football/ra ... -10-years/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ponder! manuel! manziel! weeden! freeman!
it's even uglier when you look at the second round over the last two years.

[thunderspirit]

Sure, over the last two years. Before that, not as ugly. (Though still not tremendously inspiring.)

I suspect Pace is trying to play this as the 2014 draft, and looking to nab his own Derek Carr. The success of that strategy is, naturally, the question.

[Rusty Trombagent]

oops, meant ten years.

[thunderspirit]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

[Mikefive]

Sure, over the last two years. Before that, not as ugly. (Though still not tremendously inspiring.)

I suspect Pace is trying to play this as the 2014 draft, and looking to nab his own Derek Carr. The success of that strategy is, naturally, the question.

I think it's possible that the Bears either take a QB at #3 or trade down and take one in the top half of R1. But if they don't do that, if one of the top 4 are available at the bottom of R1, Pace will trade R2 and of of those R4s to move up and take whichever's left.

[malk]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

And Glennon is a bronze QB and hence has a 3.9% chance of becoming starter level, hurrah!

[Moriarty]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Interesting.
The Fast Summary I see is:

[*]The system is flawed in that Gold and Silver tiers have a lot of bombs mixed in with successful QBs.
However, that's not as damning as it sounds at first, in that picking QBs is so hard and most QBs selected high are failures, using 'human' methods of selection.

[*]Bronze level QBs are almost always flops. Semi-useful borderline starters is about the best you can hope for.
Glennon and DeShaun Watson are/were Bronzes.

[thunderspirit]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Interesting.
The Fast Summary I see is:

[*]The system is flawed in that Gold and Silver tiers have a lot of bombs mixed in with successful QBs.
However, that's not as damning as it sounds at first, in that picking QBs is so hard and most QBs selected high are failures, using 'human' methods of selection.

[*]Bronze level QBs are almost always flops. Semi-useful borderline starters is about the best you can hope for.
Glennon and DeShaun Watson are/were Bronzes.

For me, that's the net takeaway: no matter what, the "hit rate" on QBs is about one in three, so maximizing your chances means Gold or Silver tier.

[Adipost]

This is interesting.

Put together by Ethan Young, a stat geek (his SLAYTICS composite is fascinating stuff, if you're into that sort of thing), his SEMTEX composite attempts to effectively translate college production into professional projection. He also retrogresses everything back to 1983, which proves quite telling.

FYI: Ethan's all about RoI when it comes to draft picks, so read part 1 with a clear eye on that before you get to part 2, which includes his tiers for the 2017 draft.

I'm adding this to my list of consideration factors.

Holy shit, this was fascinating. Thank you! Deserves a thread of its own.

[Boris13c]

I think Watson/Trubisky/Mahomes go in round 1

I think Peterman and Kizer go in round 2

I think Kaaya goes in round 4

I'm revising my thinking on this based on various team reports, and now think Watson/Trubisky/Mahomes/Kizer all go in the first round

[malk]

Trubisky, Kizer, Mahomes in round 1. Watson and Kaaya in 2. In that order.

That's not my ranking though!

[mmmc_35]

Good post thunder.

[mmmc_35]

These are from Greg Gabriel

-Becoming apparent that NFL decision makers like this QB class. No superstar, but 4 will go in 1st and they will become solid NFL starters

* Dude asks Trubisky Kizer Watson and Mahomes or Webb

- I am not a Webb fan. Very over rated in my opinion

*He is asked about the Bears

- I don't know but I now feel it's a strong possibility they will draft a QB in first. Might trade down then select their guy

*Then he mentions. I don't think it means 1st round.

- Peterman will become a solid NFL starter

[Rusty Trombagent]

These are from Greg Gabriel

-Becoming apparent that NFL decision makers like this QB class. No superstar, but 4 will go in 1st and they will become solid NFL starters

this is why the whole draftnik industry is such complete bullshit. basically as these guys start to understand what teams are actually thinking, and realize how wrong they've been, they slowly adjust.

we're going from definitive "no qb is worth a 1st round pick" to "four solid starting nfl qb's in the first round" in the same gradual course correction we see every year from these guys.

[mmmc_35]

Eh I don't think most of these QB are legit "first rounders". However rookie slotting and several teams in the back of the first round may make that happen.

That's why there is no talk of a consensus top group. Some GM said they like Watson, others Kiser, and were intrigued by Mahomes. Trubisky was said to be second best on several boards. Hell Webb was told he is a first rounder.

They may all end up in the first, and be given a chance to start, because of draft selection. But I could see all of them failing.

[Rusty Trombagent]

and that's how people justify their bias'. "well, he's not a first rounder, but he'll go in the first round."

this to me is insanity.

[mmmc_35]

I disagree. Are you suggesting a team would never select a less talented player over a more talented player based on positional need and importance?

[Boris13c]

I disagree. Are you suggesting a team would never select a less talented player over a more talented player based on positional need and importance?

if you believe that, then you are not truly a Bears fan ... go study some of the past Bears drafts and look at some of the more talented players they passed on to select someone not even in the league within 2 years ... but the schmoe they took was who they thought they needed

and then fast forward to just a couple years ago ... the Bears had a position of need - safety ... they had a talented person available to them when they drafted - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix ... this should have been a perfect match ... they passed and took Kyle Fuller ... Dix has been a very solid performer for the goddamed Packers while we are still waiting to see if Fuller can right himself and be productive

so when it comes to the Bears and draft strategy, logic does not always rule the day

[Bad Flanders]

You can make that argument when considering the same ownership but I think you can see that what they've done since Pace got here is mostly Pace's plan and no one else's.

He fills just about every roster hole with free agents, at the very least he finds guys that have some experience and aren't going to be complete flops, and he doesn't spend a lot doing it.

That way he goes into the draft without any positions NEEDING filled and it allows him to go best available (in his opinion). He will take a giant swing in the first round on an athletic freak, then he proceeds to take best available for the rest of the draft.

I think it's a solid way to build for the future, as long as the scouting is sound. I also think it means you can't begin to think of who he takes at three... he won't take the bait of a "position of need"... I think he will go for who he sees as the most likely to end up in the HOF regardless of position. High risk/High ceiling for whoever he picks in the first round.

[BamaBear09]

I disagree. Are you suggesting a team would never select a less talented player over a more talented player based on positional need and importance?

But how do you quantify if a guy is "less talented" than another prior to the draft? Stats? Measurables? Properly analyzing game tape? All you can do with those things is estimate how much potential a guy has based on physical limitations (i.e tight hips, arm length, frame to carry weight, etc)... and even all that can be thrown away with an injury... we'll never know how good Ki-jana Carter could have been had he not blown out his knee on his third pro carry in preseason... but he gets to wear the bust label for the rest of his life because he never (got a real chance) to live up to the potential he showed in college... there is no true way to fully guarantee if a guy is going to succeed or fail no matter how much research you do or however many algorithms you use... because there isn't a number you can plug in that will show you the true heart and desire to improve a guy has...

That's why a guy like Priest Holmes goes undrafted and then when he finally gets a real shot becomes one of the top RBs in the league... he worked his ass off and exceeded the potential cap that pretty much every scout placed on him... looking backward, it's easy to see that Holmes should have been selected in that draft but wasn't because scouts missed, because they can't see how hard he was willing to work...

And while you may not feel these QBs are worth 1st round picks, the potential each of the possesses still places them in first round contention... the NBA does it all the time, draft for potential, sometimes you win (Joel Embid) sometimes you lose (Kwame Brown) but drafting on potential is done and does not equate to you are selecting a less talented player... less polished player maybe but as the NFL still can't seem to get the QB equation right, it's better to grab the QB you like early because there is no promise he will be there in the next round when you are picking... and just like Wab has been saying, now with the rookie pay scale grabbing a QB early isn't going to cripple a team if he busts like it did 10 years ago...

[G08]

I wish this guy wasn't a piece of shit... but seriously, what a fucking throw. Look at when he releases the ball and where he places it... dime

[video][/video]

[wab]

He's just suuuuuuuuch a douche.