Bear Drafted Player Scouting Reports (Updated 2nd Round)

[crueltyabc]

In defense of Shaheen, he had a massive growth spurt in college. It's easy to understand why a guy might prefer basketball when he weighs 220 pounds. Plus some people like basketball for some reason... I'm not inclined to call that "life choices." Life choices is usually code for criminal, super religious, or teen dad. He's just a kid who is adapting to changing circumstances.


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[thunderspirit]

I'd discounted Shaheen a bit, and just went back to my records to see why. You mention his cone time, but that's below average for this class, same as his shuttle. In fact, every combine measurement except his height, weight, and bench press are below average for his class. Well, his arm length is bang-on average.

His 40 time, which history says is the combine measurement most closely aligned with TE success, is two standard deviations below average, dead last if not for Michael Roberts, whose excuse is that he can block. Weight the combine numbers of the TEs who did most of the drills against the way they tend to align with TE success, and add 'em up, use Rob Gronkowski as a control, and Gronk's #1, natch (even though he didn't have a great combine). Bucky Hodges and OJ Howard are next, then David Njoku and George Kittle. And then Jonnu Smith. And then Shaheen. Right in the middle at 7th out of 14 guys who did enough drills to count. Same thing if you apply and weight power/speed/twitch/agility formulas, except (not to beat a dead horse) the guy who comes out on top is still on the board.

I'm not a hardbitten stats guy. I put some time into stats because I don't have much video of anyone, especially guys like Shaheen, and stats help explain what I see when I watch players play. What I saw in Shaheen was a player whose life choices had him toying with future podiatrists. I wanted his measurements to tell me that he'd be a similar matchup problem against anyone. And...they don't. They really don't.

I hope he's the next Gronk or Baby Gronk or whatever. He'd almost better be. But if he becomes that guy, it won't be because of his physical gifts.

Fair points — when compared to this class he seems less exceptional.

If you compare him to historical averages in TEs, he comes out pretty well. That suggests he can play right away. Couple that with him having only three years of experience playing TE at the Division 2 level, and with NFL-level training replacing Division 2-level training, it's not hard to envision improvement from rookie to second year. He's got a reputation as a hard worker, which gives him a leg up over, say, Jordan Leggett; and doesn't have the injury issues someone like George Kittle has.

It's a risk, no doubt. Pace is betting on a coaching staff in whom many of us have lost some confidence.

[karhu]

In defense of Shaheen, he had a massive growth spurt in college. It's easy to understand why a guy might prefer basketball when he weighs 220 pounds. Plus some people like basketball for some reason... I'm not inclined to call that "life choices." Life choices is usually code for criminal, super religious, or teen dad. He's just a kid who is adapting to changing circumstances.

Didn't mean to slam him, and for what it's worth I was imagining a combo of super-religious and girlfried-went-there. Gotta ask the question, though, just like with a Veldheer or Davenport.

[Rusty Trombagent]

I'd discounted Shaheen a bit, and just went back to my records to see why. You mention his cone time, but that's below average for this class, same as his shuttle. In fact, every combine measurement except his height, weight, and bench press are below average for his class. Well, his arm length is bang-on average.

His 40 time, which history says is the combine measurement most closely aligned with TE success, is two standard deviations below average, dead last if not for Michael Roberts, whose excuse is that he can block. Weight the combine numbers of the TEs who did most of the drills against the way they tend to align with TE success, and add 'em up, use Rob Gronkowski as a control, and Gronk's #1, natch (even though he didn't have a great combine). Bucky Hodges and OJ Howard are next, then David Njoku and George Kittle. And then Jonnu Smith. And then Shaheen. Right in the middle at 7th out of 14 guys who did enough drills to count. Same thing if you apply and weight power/speed/twitch/agility formulas, except (not to beat a dead horse) the guy who comes out on top is still on the board.

I'm not a hardbitten stats guy. I put some time into stats because I don't have much video of anyone, especially guys like Shaheen, and stats help explain what I see when I watch players play. What I saw in Shaheen was a player whose life choices had him toying with future podiatrists. I wanted his measurements to tell me that he'd be a similar matchup problem against anyone. And...they don't. They really don't.

I hope he's the next Gronk or Baby Gronk or whatever. He'd almost better be. But if he becomes that guy, it won't be because of his physical gifts.

Fair points — when compared to this class he seems less exceptional.

If you compare him to historical averages in TEs, he comes out pretty well. That suggests he can play right away. Couple that with him having only three years of experience playing TE at the Division 2 level, and with NFL-level training replacing Division 2-level training, it's not hard to envision improvement from rookie to second year. He's got a reputation as a hard worker, which gives him a leg up over, say, Jordan Leggett; and doesn't have the injury issues someone like George Kittle has.

It's a risk, no doubt. Pace is betting on a coaching staff in whom many of us have lost some confidence.

There was the whole pre-draft story too about him gorging on chipotle burritos when he needed to gain weight to play TE that makes me wonder how much better his combine measureables would be if he had been going to a d1 program. I cant help but think of fat shea mclellin when he was trying to be a DE.

wait we dont have the same nutrition people from the emery regime do we?

[karhu]

Heh. Reminds me of Stanley Roberts, who could'a been Shaq 2, but who flamed out. Someone asked his coach why, and he said that Roberts was an addict who fell prey to a drug that's affected too many kids. "Crack?" "No. Cool Ranch Doritos."

[EricTighe]

Wow didn't relize Mahomes can throw a football 55 mph. That is some serious arm strength. New he had an arm but that is elite.

Guess who else threw the ball 55mph?

Yup Mitch did!

[mmmc_35]

Wow didn't relize Mahomes can throw a football 55 mph. That is some serious arm strength. New he had an arm but that is elite.

Guess who else threw the ball 55mph?

Yup Mitch did!

Mahomes was recorded at the combine of 60 mph. Not that any of that matters necessarily. Its fairly clear watching both Mahomes has a better arm, but Trubisky doesn't have a bad arm. I clearly rate it less then G08 but that could be argued either way.

[G08]

I hate that MPH reading from the combine

[Rusty Trombagent]

I hate that MPH reading from the combine

is it new? i dont feel like i've ever seen it mentioned before this year, and it does seem really asinine.

[thunderspirit]

I hate that MPH reading from the combine

is it new? i dont feel like i've ever seen it mentioned before this year, and it does seem really asinine.

It's not new, no.

It's a data element, but only an element. And there are a lot of guys who don't throw at the Combine.

[EricTighe]

Not sure where you got your info on Mahomes throwing 60 mph?
http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/03/16/qua ... 2008-2015/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who didn't know about them recording these numbers here they are as in all it is just a another tool.

[TheWorldBreaker]

Not sure where you got your info on Mahomes throwing 60 mph?
http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/03/16/qua ... 2008-2015/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who didn't know about them recording these numbers here they are as in all it is just a another tool.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[southdakbearfan]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

Numbers since 2008.

Looks like 54 and below are a red flag for the guys putting it together, but looking at the list i would say 53 or higher is ok, but it's just another tool. Lots of busts on either side of the spectrum.

It's interesting as some guys known for not having the greatest arms are pretty high in the MPH readings whereas other guys that are known long passers aren't all that high.

The eye opener was Watson's poor number.

[mmmc_35]

I figure the mph is like baseball pitchers in ways. Yes you can throw 87 in the bigs if you hit your mark. You can also miss the bigs if you throw 100 but can't find the plate. Both ends need some form of accuracy. However if your tossing 65 and not a knuckle baller, you need to forget the dream.

Same concept for QB. You can't have Lamar Lattrell throwing deep outs. But non corrected vision Rick Vaughn can't either.

[Rusty Trombagent]

I figure the mph is like baseball pitchers in ways. Yes you can throw 87 in the bigs if you hit your mark. You can also miss the bigs if you throw 100 but can't find the plate. Both ends need some form of accuracy. However if your tossing 65 and not a knuckle baller, you need to forget the dream.

Same concept for QB. You can't have Lamar Lattrell throwing deep outs. But non corrected vision Rick Vaughn can't either.

the more i look at those numbers the more my head hurts. i guess that watson number does jump out at you, but it feels like, those numbers could only really mean something if there's other components to it. like, as you said, the throw should be as fast as they can to an accurate spot, not just rifling it like uncle rico.

i'd want to somehow take release time into account as well, even though that'd be hard to be exact measuring. but like a 57mph tebow throw which took 8 seconds to wind up is useless as well.

worst measurement ever.

[wab]

You know who could throw real hard? JaMarcus Russell. Like literally the best arm in the history of football.

This statistic is stupid.

[Nanky]

You know who could throw real hard? JaMarcus Russell. Like literally the best arm in the history of football.

This statistic is stupid.

I like it to look at the trend, basically no QB has been good when throwing under 55 mph going back to 2008. The only exception is Dak last year and he threw 54 mph, possibly Tyrod Taylor. No you cannot rely on it solely, but it it's a checkbox and a huge red flag to be under, especially significantly like Watson. It's interesting to look that far back and see the numbers.

[G08]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

[Nanky]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

As long as you're applying the same test every year, a person can look at the data and come to conclusions. Relax dude.

[G08]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

As long as you're applying the same test every year, a person can look at the data and come to conclusions. Relax dude.

But you can't; if you want to look at data and draw conclusions then every one of the participants needs to be doing the same thing. IE throw as hard as your can.

These dudes are trying to complete passes, not rifle fastballs.

It's unbelievably stupid to judge on those numbers.

[Nanky]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

As long as you're applying the same test every year, a person can look at the data and come to conclusions. Relax dude.

But you can't; if you want to look at data and draw conclusions then every one of the participants needs to be doing the same thing. IE throw as hard as your can.

These dudes are trying to complete passes, not rifle fastballs.

It's unbelievably stupid to judge on those numbers.

It's just another piece of information, anyone would be stupid to only look at that and make a final decision based solely on it. It's a piece of the puzzle. The more information the better, I think looking back at the history of velocities is interesting. It's a very small piece of the puzzle, but it's info so why not look at it.

[mmmc_35]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

Actually they do. I asked two different dudes who have involved. They tell them throw it as hard as you can, and every QB knows its for the gun.

[TheWorldBreaker]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

As long as you're applying the same test every year, a person can look at the data and come to conclusions. Relax dude.

But you can't; if you want to look at data and draw conclusions then every one of the participants needs to be doing the same thing. IE throw as hard as your can.

These dudes are trying to complete passes, not rifle fastballs.

It's unbelievably stupid to judge on those numbers.

If you're just throwing to complete passes and your passes are 5 MPH slower than everyone else's that's a potential problem because the disparity in velocity could be the difference between an interception and completion.

How much faster does someone throwing a 55 MPH pass (when they're trying to be accurate) get to the receiver than a guy throwing 49 to be accurate? I'm bad at math but I'd think probably a second or two depending on how far you're throwing.

[G08]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

Actually they do. I asked two different dudes who have involved. They tell them throw it as hard as you can, and every QB knows its for the gun.

Can I ask who? I've heard otherwise. Benjamin Allbright (solid twitter follow) broke down Watson's mph in a game based on frame rate, came away with 53 mph. I don't know from where he would get an extra 4mph on his throws (unless you want to argue adrenaline) in a game compared to the Combine.

The whole thing is dumb to me. I mean Mike Glennon has a solid arm and he was clocked at 49 mph at the Combine, which is worse than Peterman and Kaaya (which is preposterous).

[TheWorldBreaker]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

Actually they do. I asked two different dudes who have involved. They tell them throw it as hard as you can, and every QB knows its for the gun.

Can I ask who? I've heard otherwise. Benjamin Allbright (solid twitter follow) broke down Watson's mph in a game based on frame rate, came away with 53 mph. I don't know from where he would get an extra 4mph on his throws (unless you want to argue adrenaline) in a game compared to the Combine.

The whole thing is dumb to me. I mean Mike Glennon has a solid arm and he was clocked at 49 mph at the Combine, which is worse than Peterman and Kaaya (which is preposterous).

This article mentions them throwing for velocity: https://www.google.com/amp/ftw.usatoday ... thomas/amp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Could be wrong or poor wording though, I suppose.

Also, I'm not sure how scientific the process you describe that guy on Twitter doing is. And even if you could reliably extrapolate that from tv, I doubt he's qualified to do it accurately.

[mmmc_35]

Doing a frame by frame calc is going to have a wide discrepancy.

I shouldn't say their names. I don't think they would appreciate it. So these are my anonymous sources. Lol, but I do trust them even if they are pucker fans. One has a connection to a guy on the velocity list the other was a qb way back on the depth chart to someone on that list.

Another reason to trust the validity (not of the findings, but that teams are looking). There was a show on discovery or history channel called American Muscle. It only has like 3 episodes. As a S&C geek I watched it. Very little S&C insight. However Pat White was on it. Trying to get ready for a camp. They literally worked on his velocity, saying anything below 45 teams won't look at you. I believe he hits 48. This might be a lose connection but it was important to them. Suh and Nick Swisher were on the show training also.

All of that said I think the Gabriel article saying spin might be more important, has validity to. I think that's why Watson's passes vs Kaaya look different. Arm angle and spin.

[G08]

That's fine... I just go off the eyeball test and if there's a world were Peterman/Kaaya have a better arm than Glennon, I don't want to live in it.

[malk]

Nobody
Asked
These
QBs
To
Throw
As
Hard
As
They
Can

For fucks sake.

As long as you're applying the same test every year, a person can look at the data and come to conclusions. Relax dude.

But you can't; if you want to look at data and draw conclusions then every one of the participants needs to be doing the same thing. IE throw as hard as your can.

These dudes are trying to complete passes, not rifle fastballs.

It's unbelievably stupid to judge on those numbers.

If you're just throwing to complete passes and your passes are 5 MPH slower than everyone else's that's a potential problem because the disparity in velocity could be the difference between an interception and completion.

How much faster does someone throwing a 55 MPH pass (when they're trying to be accurate) get to the receiver than a guy throwing 49 to be accurate? I'm bad at math but I'd think probably a second or two depending on how far you're throwing.

55mph is 24.59 m/s. 49 mph is 21.90 m/s. So trying to rifle it 20 yards takes 0.81s for the former and 0.91s for the latter.

Taken to more of an extreme 60mph is 26.82 m/s, 45 mph is 20.12 m/s. So the same 20 yard throw would take 0.75s for 60 mph and 0.99s for 45mph.

So the question is, what difference does a quarter of a second make? You've also got to factor in the mechanics of the QB i.e. how quick their release is. Their vision/anticipation, can they throw a receiver open or do they need to see them open first.

Then you'd need to know whether there was a dropoff in accuracy as each QB approached their maximum velocity. If someone can only scrape 45 mph when wanging it as hard as they can then there's a problem but if that's their standard consistent speed and they just don't have that higher gearing then I'm not so fussed.

Ultimately, yes it's a data point but I don't think it's a particularly meaningful one outside of perhaps triggering further investigation if under a threshold or used to confirm something seen on tape.

EDIT. Looking at that ourlads page I don't trust the data either. Only three players in 2017 achieved 55mph or higher with a max of 56mph. 10 players managed it in 2016. Now maybe 2017 was the year of the noodle but does anyone think that Mahomes wouldn't be considered one of the best arms in that 2016 class rather than around 10th best?