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wab wrote:Indy seems like a team in a good spot to move down should someone want a QB. It could conceivably go QB, QB, QB, RB, QB, QB, DE.

I would love it if that happened.

Assuming Chubb is that DE, our options are then:

Fitzpatrick
Smith
Key
McFadden
Ferrell
Ridley
Kirk

How do you not like that? And yes I deliberately left off OL. You could trade down a couple spots and still draft somebody impactful.

Williams probably falls to R2 just based on his injuries.

Because of a meniscus tear? I don't think so, unless I am missing something.

I'll say it again, I think we can get a WR in R2 and should address OL or Edge Rusher in R1.

wab wrote:Williams probably falls to R2 just based on his injuries.

He had one injury in college, and came back to play before the end of the season. He only missed one game his first two seasons (and that was because Strong decided to rest some starters against UTEP).

A torn MCL isn’t going to drop him a round. He might go in the second - but it would be because teams graded him out as a second round talent.

I still will eat my hat if we draft a tackle in one of the first two rounds. But I am all in on drafting a generational talent at guard, releasing sitton and using those savings towards other free agents. i dont think that a replacement for sitton is needed this year, but if nelson really is the BPA available, my body is ready.

Just got done listening to McShay/Kiper's First Draft podcast and they're not really high on this Tackle or WR class at all.

Kiper and McShay said that McGlinchey is a RT in the NFL and that he's sort of the Jack Conklin of this draft. Connor Williams shouldn't be drafted until the 20's and that his tape wasn't that impressive this year and then got injured.

Said they wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Nelson as the top OL drafted ahead of any of the Tackles.

As for the WR's, they don't think Ridley, Sutton or any of the others should be drafted in the 1st round but think that Ridley and Sutton will get overdrafted.

Nothing we haven't already been saying here, but thought I'd share. I personally don't think the Bears draft any of the WR's or OT's in the 1st round. I think it's going to be Nelson or Pass Rusher.

I don't understand the insistence on drafting OL in the first round. This is an area that can be addressed in FA and later on in the draft. Unless if this is a BPA argument in which case I understand, but that's not the vibe I'm getting.

Well Nelson or Williams very easily could be BOA. Add to that, the best thing a young QB can have is a clean pocket and time, OLine play becomes important.

DaSuperfan wrote:Just got done listening to McShay/Kiper's First Draft podcast and they're not really high on this Tackle or WR class at all.

Kiper and McShay said that McGlinchey is a RT in the NFL and that he's sort of the Jack Conklin of this draft. Connor Williams shouldn't be drafted until the 20's and that his tape wasn't that impressive this year and then got injured.

Said they wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Nelson as the top OL drafted ahead of any of the Tackles.

As for the WR's, they don't think Ridley, Sutton or any of the others should be drafted in the 1st round but think that Ridley and Sutton will get overdrafted.

Nothing we haven't already been saying here, but thought I'd share. I personally don't think the Bears draft any of the WR's or OT's in the 1st round. I think it's going to be Nelson or Pass Rusher.

Thanks.
I'll have to start downloading again.

Agree with almost everything they say.

[*] Agree WRs not that special. Can wait until R2.
[*] Agree bad OT group. McGlinchey iffy for LT, Williams way overrated.
[*] Agree Rusher should be the top early target
[*] Agree Nelson could be first OL off the board...but strenuously against the Bears doing that.

Adding Heistand to the staff makes the prospect of trying to develop an OL more palatable. I suppose we'll see if Jordan Morgan has value to the team. I also am a big, big fan of Will Hernandez out of TX-El Paso.

Unless Chubb or Fitzpatrick are there, I'm hoping we trade down.

So many needs as the roster stands right now:

1 or 2 OLBs
2 or 3 WRs
2 or 3 CBs
2 OL
1 ILB
1 K

G08 wrote:Unless Chubb or Fitzpatrick are there, I'm hoping we trade down.

So many needs as the roster stands right now:

1 or 2 OLBs
2 or 3 WRs
2 or 3 CBs
2 OL
1 ILB
1 K

Roquan Smith looks pretty good at #8 with that list. Or you trade down with Buffalo and at #21 and #22 can you address two of those needs.

The first half of round 1 has got to be very lopsided with offensive players. They'll be good defensive options at #21 and #22.

The Marshall Plan wrote:

G08 wrote:Unless Chubb or Fitzpatrick are there, I'm hoping we trade down.

So many needs as the roster stands right now:

1 or 2 OLBs
2 or 3 WRs
2 or 3 CBs
2 OL
1 ILB
1 K

Roquan Smith looks pretty good at #8 with that list. Or you trade down with Buffalo and at #21 and #22 can you address two of those needs.

The first half of round 1 has got to be very lopsided with offensive players. They'll be good defensive options at #21 and #22.

If Buffalo burns 2 first round picks, it'll be to trade up to get a QB they want...most likely with Indy as the QB's could all be off the board by our pick...but you never know

G08 wrote:Unless Chubb or Fitzpatrick are there, I'm hoping we trade down.

So many needs as the roster stands right now:

1 or 2 OLBs
2 or 3 WRs
2 or 3 CBs
2 OL
1 ILB
1 K

Free agency changes that though. CB and WR I can see being sorted enough for us to knock them off the 1st round need list. Fuller and Amukamara to longer term deals sees CB drop off completely and I just don't see us going into the draft without another wideout on the roster, even if this year's free agents are a little underwhelming.

OLB, however, will be incredibly expensive to secure in FA so whilst I can see Pace trying to bring in someone to be a solid starter I don't see him breaking the bank to try and secure a difference maker. For OL we've already got too much tied up in Long and Sitton to pay for another expensive guard so the draft makes sense there.

ILB is down to how good they think Kwiatkoski and if there's a chance Roquan Smith is a generational talent.

OG has as close to can't miss as you get in Nelson.

What I like about the choice is that of the 5 positions of most need, we'll likely have the choice of taking the first off the board in all but OLB. If there's a run on QBs then I hope that we can fleece a good haul out of one of the better teams who rarely draft high who fall in love with a prospect from a position of need. Failing that Pace takes his favourite or perhaps drops down a little if he's happy enough with a few players left on his board.

There's going to be a lot of value at OLB in the 30-50 range, so that sets up nicely for the Bears if they decide to go OL or CB in round 1.

wab wrote:There's going to be a lot of value at OLB in the 30-50 range, so that sets up nicely for the Bears if they decide to go OL or CB in round 1.

Do you think the return of Fangio increases the chances of both Fuller and Prince returning? I do. I also like Callahan, and thought he had played well in the last couple of years. He could develop as well. I don't know how deep the draft is at CB, but I know we need some talent on the OL, given all of the injuries last year.

Here's something else I was thinking of. Do you think the addition of Hellfrich lights a fire under Long to get healthy, and return strong for his old OC? I think so. I'm not saying that Long was sandbagging, I'm just saying that it's going to provide extra motivation for him to be a healthy part of this offense.

wab wrote:Bears need another pass rusher, a WR, a RT, and a CB. In that order.

Isn't Morgan supposed to be a fairly highly touted prospect? I thought there was a lot of noise around him, when we picked him up. Maybe Hiestand can develop him.

Thought to say about the corners. Fuller has played his best under Fangio but he’s also been in the doghouse under him. Amukamara has stated he wants to settle with one team for the rest of his career. I’d say it’s 50/50 for Fuller to return and 70/30 for Amukamara.

I don’t think Long needs motivation from his old OC. I think he has all the motivation in the world, but his body is shot.

As far as Morgan goes, he’s raw but talented. I think he was always supposed to be someone that potentially took over at guard. I think he was listed at 6’4 319 ish, which is basically the same as Sitton. He is definitely a guy that should be in the future plans.

There's no need for a CB that hasn't had an INT in three years (Amukamara) and then for a guy that only played great in a contract year.

There's a reason why Pace went after Gilmore and Bouye.

It wouldn't bother me at all if we drafted a CB at #8.

The Marshall Plan wrote:There's no need for a CB that hasn't had an INT in three years (Amukamara) and then for a guy that only played great in a contract year.

There's a reason why Pace went after Gilmore and Bouye.

It wouldn't bother me at all if we drafted a CB at #8.

Wait, did someone say Bouye?

Gonna go back to my interceptions are overrated schtick. The difference between a pass defended, or any other kind of forced incompletion, on 3rd down and an interception is the field position difference between the result of the interception and the punt return.

Marcus Peters has 19 interceptions in the past three years (which is pretty exceptional!). Then Reggie Nelson with 14, Darius Slay with 12 and 4 players with 11 and 5 players with 10. So those players with 10 are tied for 8th in the league.

Amukamara has 1 interception in the past three years which means the difference between him and the top 8 players in the league, for interceptions, over that three year period, is 3 extra interceptions per year.

I'm not going to advocate running a player out of town if they don't get enough interceptions, especially if part of that might be down to good play, see:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-peterson-amukamara-lead-nfl-in-receptions-allowed-per-snap-in-coverage

EDIT: Somewhat frustratingly my PFF subscription has run out and it isn't worth renewing. I would be interested to compare their coverage snap counts to the Pro Football Reference stats I've used above. Or even just snap counts (FO has these but I cannot be bothered combining them with the PFR data).

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:

wab wrote:Bears need another pass rusher, a WR, a RT, and a CB. In that order.

Isn't Morgan supposed to be a fairly highly touted prospect? I thought there was a lot of noise around him, when we picked him up. Maybe Hiestand can develop him.

Some people had him as a midrounder (I didn't have time to study Gs last year). But he played at a small school, had very meh measurables, and got redshirted with a hangnail injury as a rookie. So my expectations aren't very high.

wab wrote:As far as Morgan goes, he’s raw but talented. I think he was always supposed to be someone that potentially took over at guard. I think he was listed at 6’4 319 ish, which is basically the same as Sitton. He is definitely a guy that should be in the future plans.

He was 6026 309. Definitely interior only.

The Marshall Plan wrote:There's no need for a CB that hasn't had an INT in three years (Amukamara) and then for a guy that only played great in a contract year.

There's a reason why Pace went after Gilmore and Bouye.

It wouldn't bother me at all if we drafted a CB at #8.

The Bears went after those two guys not knowing how well the two they had would play. You can't just be like "oh they targeted corners last offseason" and pretend like nothing has changed since then.

Assuming Texas DB Holton Hill drops to the second round because of 'character concerns'* he would be an absolute steal in the second round. Great size/length at corner - coverage skills are there and he was very physical in the run game at Texas.


*Kid likes to smoke - shit should be legal anyways

We had a 0 for turnover differential this year. We cannot concede the CB positions simply because Amukamara is a cover guy and Fuller had a great year last year.

We need ballhawks.

Regarding Marcus Peters. That guy was on the board too (along with Gurley and Beasley) when we drafted Kevin White.

Marcus Peters is a turd. I don’t care how many picks he gets, he’s a turd.

wab wrote:Marcus Peters is a turd. I don’t care how many picks he gets, he’s a turd.

Yep. I'd bet money that he wasn't even on Pace's board.

I'm really intrigued by Shaquem Griffin. Obviously there's questions of how his situation would work/hold up in the NFL. But you know he's had to be a hard worker to get to where he's put himself in the position he's in.

Josh Jackson is my guy at 8 if we don't go for pass rusher or OL. Dude is a beast and a former WR - he's a true ball hawk.

The Marshall Plan wrote:We had a 0 for turnover differential this year. We cannot concede the CB positions simply because Amukamara is a cover guy and Fuller had a great year last year.

We need ballhawks.

Regarding Marcus Peters. That guy was on the board too (along with Gurley and Beasley) when we drafted Kevin White.

Ballhawks, nope!

We had 22 takeaways this season, 15th in the league. Could we improve that? Sure, but the Vikings had 19, 23rd in the league and they were the best defence in points and yards. More interceptions are nice but there are many ways to skin a cat.

Look at it this way. The average interceptions per year of the top 5 players over different time periods (working back from 2017):

1 year (2017), 6.6
2 years, 5
3 years, 4.5
4 years, 4.2
5 years, 3.9
6 years, 3.7
7 years, 3.5

To me this demonstrates that, over any kind of extended period, around 4 interceptions per year is elite. But that elite level is 3 plays a year different to a decidedly non ballhawk like Amukamara who averages 1 interception per season over his 7 year career.

Bottom line, interceptions are a poor statistic to measure how good a CB is.