Draft Scenario

College football and the NFL Draft

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Mikefive
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.
Of course you do. Anybody would.

RB is a role of contrasts. Can you plow thru on 3rd and 1 and push the pile? Can you break a tackle? Can you outrun a LB to the corner? In the open field, can you beat any S to the end zone? Can you make someone miss in the open field? Can you catch a ball? How about run a pass pattern and get yourself open? Can you block a LB coming full speed on the blitz? Do you have the size and build to take the abuse and avoid injury?

The answers to some of those questions oppose the answers of others. So most of the time, you have to make choices of priorities.
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I'm clearly having a change of approach here but give me a fucking bruiser to impose our will on defenses and then counter that with some speed and innovative play design on the outside. Fun blend of smash mouth and up-tempo innovation. I'm good with Howard getting 300 touches a season, but we will probably break him in about 3-4 years.
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Rusty Trombagent
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Mikefive wrote: The talk that RBs won't get picked high is poppycock. Yes, I understand the value of that position had dropped in the last 10 years. But that didn't stop Fournette from getting picked top 5 last year. If a player has elite skills that meet a bad team's needs, they'll go for that.
Yeah, it's oversimplified BS. Last year Fournette and McCaffrey both in the top ten. Tthe year before that Zeke went 4th. Before that Gurley and Gordon both in the top 15.

It does seem like teams are looking at the drop off once you get past those special talents, so more so the second half of the first round is barren for RB's. But special talents still go very high.
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Atkins&Rebel
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malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.
How many of the guys with breakaway speed do you think break the tackle there? The Ravens bottle us up well and most backs get stuffed on that play. I'm genuinely incredulous that you'd use that as an example.

The other bits I'll have to get back to later.
Someone with elite speed, who can hit the hole once it opened up might not have been touched...the first contact guy might have been reaching and wouldn't have to power through a tackle...Le'veon Bell does it all the time...pick through then accelerate. Not everyone is Bell, and can't do that, but I'd draft Barkley hoping that he could.

And who's to say that an elite speed guy can't have power too? Gurley can run away from guys or break tackles...so can Bell, and a few other RB's. Tackling is not consistent in today's NFL and elite speed breaks more tackles than bruising RB's not named Lynch do.

Also one last thing on using basic production stats (and only rushing stats at that):
If you only compare
528 rushes, 2435 yards, 15 TD's, 4.6 Y/C
to
507 rushes, 2069 yards, 20 TD's, 4.08 Y/C

Who is the better RB between the two? the top is Jordan Howard, the next one is Walter Payton. Who is the better RB? Using basic stats to argue is just plain dumb as it shows that you can't simply go by production.
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southdakbearfan
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No you can’t look at stats. You have to look at it all.

By your methodology the bears would have traded Walter after year 1 because he didn’t produce enough home run plays and the next guy in the draft could be better.

Howard is by every metric a top flight nfl running back. On a team with holes you don’t trade a strength on the chance a player might be a little better when there are such glaring needs elsewhere and to propose otherwise is stupid.

Done.
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malk
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southdakbearfan wrote:No you can’t look at stats. You have to look at it all.

By your methodology the bears would have traded Walter after year 1 because he didn’t produce enough home run plays and the next guy in the draft could be better.

Howard is by every metric a top flight nfl running back. On a team with holes you don’t trade a strength on the chance a player might be a little better when there are such glaring needs elsewhere and to propose otherwise is stupid.

Done.
Dude, don't get sucked into the straw man argument, absolutely no one is suggesting that. Plus I'm pretty sure no one was arguing that you could compare who is a better player from these early stats, certainly I wasn't.

But if we're making silly arguments, I don't think Payton is good enough for A&R, he only had 9 50+ yard touchdowns in his 13 year career so he doesn't really have that home run ability you look for.
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