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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:36 am 
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There are a lot of new people here. Every year I make a consensus big board. Nfl.com, NFL draft scout, PFF, Tony Pauline, CBS, B/R are used with an athletic metric. The board will be updated after pro days about 2 weeks before the draft.

Sheet one = Big Board
Sheet two = Mock Draft

Big Board and Mock

Bears Picks

1st Edmunds, Tremaine Edge
- Fits the Pace athletic high upside type. He fits multiple rolls, has required length, and could be a generational talent.

2nd Smith, Braden OG
- Pace seems to pick higher floor guys in the middle and Smith is a starting quality guard of the bat. He also fits a need with the release of Sitton and keeps Whitehair at center. Kush or Smith as a guard/depth sures up the interior.

4th McIntosh, R.J. 5T
- Physically has all the requirements and is strong at the point. Imposing build with room. Adding another 5T that can drive up the field could help Hicks a ton in run and pass.

4th Gaulden, Rashaan CB
- He can play every DB position but is thought to be a NC of the bat. Big enough and athletic enough to play on the outside, and a good enough tackler to play in support. In time he could add a unique dimension to the team.

5th Igwebuike, Godwin S
- The Bears have been looking at physical safeties perhaps to run 3 safety sets. Godwin is physical enough to provide run support and just has the it factor in his game. Not a coverage guy but could be used in differing sets.

6th Richie James WR
- Paces small school guy. He meets the athletic markers, but is tiny. Fun to watch.

7th Edmonds, Chase RB
- Another small school guy who is athletic. He is like a poor mans Cohen.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:28 am 
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I just wish McIntosh was a bit bigger. Seemed like teams ran left (our D Right), too easily last year. Maybe it was only certain teams...things are getting fuzzy on a season to forget. But I'd like an immovable pillar at that RDE spot who can sub out in passing situations. I like BJ Hill for that.

But as a 4th round pick, we're splitting hairs a bit. Maybe we can get both...

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:33 am 
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I like McIntosh because his body type he can add muscle easily, without losing movement. He needs to learn to stay low. I think he could be a solid starter.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:39 am 
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This is solid stuff, mmmc_35.

I've tried to build a composite model using many of the same sources, but it's tedious and the maintenance has proved to be a nightmare. Kudos.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:41 pm 
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I have a actually got the system down pretty good. I was able to complete CB and S in 1 hour. Not including watching/ reading about players. Just the data entry.

Here is a work sheet. Soon I hope to clean up everything and have 4+ years of scoring to better show outliers.

QB Sheet


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:04 pm 
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Wow, that pretty impressive. Seems like a lot of work..awesome.

It would be even better if we weren't drafting Edmunds as an edge guy, but I'll stop talking about him lol


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:05 pm 
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I'm looking forward to your full spreadsheet with all the positional calculations.

Edmunds in particular. You have him listed as EDGE not LB. Is that how you calculated his TS? I have his TS .08 higher at LB. It depends a lot on how one estimates his vertical and 3-cone. I have them at 34" and 7.13. Don't know how you fudge vertical but I believe your fudge for 3-cone would put you at 7.26. The other raters you use in your composite, what position(s) were they rating Edmunds at?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:57 pm 
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Have you ever looked at how your consensus big board stacks up as a BPA analysis. I.e. if teams went purely BPA based upon it, would the success rate be higher than what actually happened?

It'd be using the consensus big board as an approximation of what team's internal big boards are but I think that it's the best proxy we have.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:17 pm 
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malk wrote:
Have you ever looked at how your consensus big board stacks up as a BPA analysis. I.e. if teams went purely BPA based upon it, would the success rate be higher than what actually happened?

It'd be using the consensus big board as an approximation of what team's internal big boards are but I think that it's the best proxy we have.

Provide a good metric for "success rate" and I'm sure mmmc_35 could tell you. I can't because I don't have data going back as far as I believe he has, and any success measure has to incorporate several years of performance.

Also, a bigboard that tries to rank "best football player" requires positional adjustments based on supply/demand (where demand depends on value, e.g. QB is by itself at the top and FB is rather lonely at the bottom). Not to mention the fact that even though the '12 CBA regularized the draft pick scale it remains position dependent, 5th year options and tags are completely position dependent.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:24 pm 
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DL and Edge

The easiest 3 cone time seems to be taking 40 yd times 1.52. It was something like average 3 cone 7.1 / average 40yd 4.7 = 1.52. It's fairly accurate when I tested it. I had another one issuing 20 yd shuttle and using 10 yd split, but the accuracy of this was just as good.

I have been messing around with the jumps and not found any I like. I used yours and will probably go back to it once I sit down and organize it. For the vertical I just threw one together to get it done. The easiest incorporates weight and 40. My quick one isn't formatted correctly. As Louie Simmons (strength coach) says to run faster you need to work on jumping higher.


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