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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:30 pm 
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Malk every year I do a list of who I think the Bears should have drafted. I want to reorganize everything (last 5 drafts) and do something like that. My picks are not always the highest rated but generally are fairly close plus who I like and position.

2014 Draft
14 Fuller, Kyle CB
51 Kony Ealy DE
82 DaQuan Jones DT
117 Pierre Desir CB/FS
131 Jackson Jeffcoat Edge
183 Bennett Jackson S
191 Jonathan Dowling S
246 Ryan Groy G
UDFA Christian Jones LB
UDFA Cornelius Lucas OT


2015 Draft
7 Beasley, Vic EDGE
39 McKinney, Benardrick ILB
71 Odighizuwa, Owamagbe 5T
106 Shaw, Josh CB/FS
142 Hundley, Brett QB
183 Chickillo, Anthony Edge
UDFA Finney, B.J. C
UDFA Zenner, Zach RB


2016 Draft
9 *Laremy Tunsil OT
56 Carl Nassib 5T
72 Jacoby Brissett QB
113 Kenneth Dixon RB
124 Deiondre' Hall CB
127 Connor McGovern OG
150 Jerell Adams TE
185 Jalen Mills S/CB
230 Eric Striker LB
UDFA Devon Cajuste WR/TE
UDFA Paul McRoberts WR

2017 Draft
Pick NAME POS
3 Mahomes, Patrick QB
45 Chidobe Awuzie CB
67 Jordan Willis Edge
111 Bucky Hodges TE
117 Chad Hansen WR
119 Roderick Johnson OT
147 Desmond King S
197 Jeremiah Ledbetter 5T
221 Christopher Carson RB
UDFA Cole Hikutini TE
UDFA Carroll Phillips Edge


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:42 pm 
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Success rate is something I have messed with but how do you determine it? Games started and games played seem to be logical. I know I have mentioned it before and laughed at but Madden rankings to me is the easiest. It's fairly impartial, and you get a very general indication of a player. 60 bad, 70 below average, 75-80 average, 80 good , 90 excellent. PFF scores don't really work because the way they score.


Bullard graded PFF at 75 or above average but didn't play much. 16 games played 3 started. Madden score of 72.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:57 pm 
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pro-football-reference has been calculating AV for a fairly long time. Even they admit that it's not very good, but EVERYBODY post CBA who does a study to calculate a better draft-value chart uses it to measure the success of draft picks (and it cheats, but not well, for position; there are attempts to improve it in that regard).


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:03 pm 
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Middleguard wrote:
malk wrote:
Have you ever looked at how your consensus big board stacks up as a BPA analysis. I.e. if teams went purely BPA based upon it, would the success rate be higher than what actually happened?

It'd be using the consensus big board as an approximation of what team's internal big boards are but I think that it's the best proxy we have.

Provide a good metric for "success rate" and I'm sure mmmc_35 could tell you. I can't because I don't have data going back as far as I believe he has, and any success measure has to incorporate several years of performance.

Also, a bigboard that tries to rank "best football player" requires positional adjustments based on supply/demand (where demand depends on value, e.g. QB is by itself at the top and FB is rather lonely at the bottom). Not to mention the fact that even though the '12 CBA regularized the draft pick scale it remains position dependent, 5th year options and tags are completely position dependent.


I haven't fully thought this through but I was thinking explicitly not ranking by position. There's a general idea that teams get into trouble when they don't "go bpa". In fact, it'd just be a case of ranking those big boards against the actual drafts, are they a better way of predicting success?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:31 pm 
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Last year, from the 13 boards I tracked, the highest Trubisky was ranked was 10, the average was 23, and one didn't include him because he wasn't in the top 50. But he was the consensus highest ranked QB. Three QBs were drafted by 12. Did the Bears get into trouble by not drafting Allen or Thomas (nearly tied on my consensus, and one had to be there at 3).


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:00 pm 
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mmmc_35 wrote:
Success rate is something I have messed with but how do you determine it? Games started and games played seem to be logical. I know I have mentioned it before and laughed at but Madden rankings to me is the easiest. It's fairly impartial, and you get a very general indication of a player. 60 bad, 70 below average, 75-80 average, 80 good , 90 excellent. PFF scores don't really work because the way they score.


Bullard graded PFF at 75 or above average but didn't play much. 16 games played 3 started. Madden score of 72.


Thanks for the reply (missed this earlier!).

I'd agree with Middleguard, Pro Football Reference's AV is as good a shout as any.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:07 am 
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I don't know anything about AV score, but looking into it a tad...

Perhaps after 4 years taking the 2 highest AV scores.

So examples 2014 draft

Good player
Aaron Donald 2 best AV =35

Bad player
Jace Armaco 2 best AV = 4
Cody Latimore = 3

Injured but good
Kyle Fuller 2 best A/V = 12

It could work. 10 would probably be the cut off for success.


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