2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

[Mikefive]

Somebody has to come back to it...

Calvin Ridley

[thunderspirit]

Here is what the experts say, according to ChicagoBears.com.

I'd love to know if Mayer put out a similar article last year. Quenton Nelson aside, I'd be willing to bet the guy the Bears want isn't part of this collection.

[UOK]

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Hmm.

[Umbali]

I think he takes Davenport, even if its a trade back. He tends to value high ceilings. Personally I wouldnt like that pick.

[docc]

Pre-combine I was for a WR in the first. Now, I want Nelson (G). I am hoping DJ Moore (WR) is still there for the Bears in round 2.

I like DJ Moore a ton, but I don't think we are taking a WR unless some stud is available in round 4.

Gun to my head, our first 4 picks will be some combination of:

OLB/EDGE (pass rusher)
OG
Swing Tackle
ILB

Thinking similar..unless trades and order moves our options..

[The Marshall Plan]

Mostly we share opinions about who the Bears SHOULD draft. But that's NOT the question here, which is to get into the mind of Ryan Pace and state what he actually WILL do.

Let's play this like a wager--even though it isn't. Every participant has an imaginary $100 wagered on the outcome, the total of which will be divided up by all correct guessers. Note that making a less popular choice can result in a much bigger bounty.

Make your guess and argue why you think that's who Pace will take. And as always, you can change your answer up until the draft begins.

And just so you know, if you argue in this thread who Pace SHOULD select, then you will deservedly be publicly flogged for not following directions. Besides, there are other places to discuss that.

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

If Nelson is off the board by 8 and/or the Bears can't trade up to get him, I believe they'll draft an edge rusher / LB. Davenport, Landry or Edmunds. That's the other obvious need.

[wab]

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

These two statements are contradictory, if not plain ol' confusing.

[Mikefive]

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

These two statements are contradictory, if not plain ol' confusing.

I'm not seeing the contradiction. What am I missing?

[wab]

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

These two statements are contradictory, if not plain ol' confusing.

I'm not seeing the contradiction. What am I missing?

He says it will piss him off if Nelson is the pick but then goes on to say that the interior of the OL is a disaster.

[Mikefive]

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

These two statements are contradictory, if not plain ol' confusing.

I'm not seeing the contradiction. What am I missing?

He says it will piss him off if Nelson is the pick but then goes on to say that the interior of the OL is a disaster.

Ahhh. That makes sense. He just wants the fix to come later.

[G08]

I just don't get it, man. I don't care that someone like Greg Gabriel says that Nelson is the best/most polished guard he has ever seen in the past 37 years. He's a guard -- a fucking guard.

Look at these names of interior offensive linemen that could be there for us at pick #39:

James Daniels
Isaiah Wynn
Billy Price
Austin Corbett
Braden Smith
Frank Ragnow

I find it hard to believe that our O-line guru can't coach up one of these kids to be a solid NFL starter. Pro Bowl OGs don't win you games. Hall of Fame OGs don't win you games.

I look at these 2nd tier pass rushers and I want to puke:

Arden Key - injury history, character concerns depending upon who you ask, opiate addiction in past
Sam Hubbard - he's the white version of Sam Acho
Lorenzo Carter - weak
Josh Sweat - I like him but does he have clean medicals?
Dorance Armstrong - intriguing, I just wish he had more juice to his game (looks lethargic on "tape" to me)

We need a homerun at pick #8 and if you can pair Leonard Floyd with another pass rusher that keeps OCs up at night, it would greatly help our defense go from top 10 to top 5 IMO.

[Mikefive]

I just don't get it, man. I don't care that someone like Greg Gabriel says that Nelson is the best/most polished guard he has ever seen in the past 37 years. He's a guard -- a fucking guard.

Look at these names of interior offensive linemen that could be there for us at pick #39:

James Daniels
Isaiah Wynn
Billy Price
Austin Corbett
Braden Smith
Frank Ragnow

I find it hard to believe that our O-line guru can't coach up one of these kids to be a solid NFL starter. Pro Bowl OGs don't win you games. Hall of Fame OGs don't win you games.

I look at these 2nd tier pass rushers and I want to puke:

Arden Key - injury history, character concerns depending upon who you ask, opiate addiction in past
Sam Hubbard - he's the white version of Sam Acho
Lorenzo Carter - weak
Josh Sweat - I like him but does he have clean medicals?
Dorance Armstrong - intriguing, I just wish he had more juice to his game (looks lethargic on "tape" to me)

We need a homerun at pick #8 and if you can pair Leonard Floyd with another pass rusher that keeps OCs up at night, it would greatly help our defense go from top 10 to top 5 IMO.

You beautifully elaborated on exactly what I was trying to say here in my discussion of Nelson. Thank you!

[Adipost]

I just don't get it, man. I don't care that someone like Greg Gabriel says that Nelson is the best/most polished guard he has ever seen in the past 37 years. He's a guard -- a fucking guard.

Look at these names of interior offensive linemen that could be there for us at pick #39:

James Daniels
Isaiah Wynn
Billy Price
Austin Corbett
Braden Smith
Frank Ragnow

I find it hard to believe that our O-line guru can't coach up one of these kids to be a solid NFL starter. Pro Bowl OGs don't win you games. Hall of Fame OGs don't win you games.

I look at these 2nd tier pass rushers and I want to puke:

Arden Key - injury history, character concerns depending upon who you ask, opiate addiction in past
Sam Hubbard - he's the white version of Sam Acho
Lorenzo Carter - weak
Josh Sweat - I like him but does he have clean medicals?
Dorance Armstrong - intriguing, I just wish he had more juice to his game (looks lethargic on "tape" to me)

We need a homerun at pick #8 and if you can pair Leonard Floyd with another pass rusher that keeps OCs up at night, it would greatly help our defense go from top 10 to top 5 IMO.

[The Marshall Plan]

If Nelson is on the board they will draft him. Its going to seriously piss me off though. Yeah OK fine he's the best guard prospect in the history of the game or whatever. I hear crap like that every year about some prospect. You can get good OLs further into the draft. They have his coach from Notre Dame and I think that's a contributing factor here. The new HC also has a background in offense.

Sitton got cut. Long is overrated and perpetually injured. Our interior OL could be a disaster. We have a potential franchise QB in year 2 with a new host of weapons. What's the point of having those WRs if he's under pressure constantly?

These two statements are contradictory, if not plain ol' confusing.

I'm not seeing the contradiction. What am I missing?

He says it will piss him off if Nelson is the pick but then goes on to say that the interior of the OL is a disaster.

Ahhh. That makes sense. He just wants the fix to come later.

Yep. Go ahead and draft OL in rounds 2,4, or 5. There's no need to do so at #8 overall.

[Z Bear]

We need a homerun at pick #8 and if you can pair Leonard Floyd with another pass rusher that keeps OCs up at night, it would greatly help our defense go from top 10 to top 5 IMO.

Out of curiosity, do you think any of the Edge rushers are worthy of being picked at 8? I really don't. Edmunds is worthy of #8 to me, but at ILB. No one knows if he will be an effective edge rusher as he has not done it. Davenport I think may turn into something and gives a little power to Floyd's finesse, but is he worthy of 8? If the Bears are dead set on getting an edge in round 1, their top priority should be trying to trade down.

[G08]

We need a homerun at pick #8 and if you can pair Leonard Floyd with another pass rusher that keeps OCs up at night, it would greatly help our defense go from top 10 to top 5 IMO.

Out of curiosity, do you think any of the Edge rushers are worthy of being picked at 8? I really don't. Edmunds is worthy of #8 to me, but at ILB. No one knows if we will be an effective edge rusher as he has not done it. Davenport I think may turn into something and gives a little power to Floyd's finesse, but is he worthy of 8? If the Bears are dead set on getting an edge in round 1, their top priority should be trying to trade down.

That's what I'm struggling with, man. I don't think Davenport is a top 8 player in this draft, but I also don't believe in drafting OGs in the top 10. Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James are all solid players, Denzel Ward too, but we don't need any of them right now.

Smith and Emunds will kick either Kwiatkoski or Treavathan to the bench, or they will be depth, which doesn't make sense to me.

Fitzpatrick, James, Ward I guess could play nickel for us but that means 30% of the time they won't be on the field. Or it means you take Amos and put him on the bench. That doesn't make sense to me.

Pass rusher is a premium position so that, to me, takes a talent like Davenport and bumps him up a little bit. Should it? I don't know, probably not, but it does make me feel better that Daniel Jeremiah and Gil Brandt list him as 12th on each of their big boards.

[Atkins&Rebel]

So Nagy just said that you can never have enough WR's and guys are reading into that saying WR is the pick at #8.

Now we are back to Calvin Ridley as the speculated Bears pick at #8

[Moriarty]

1 Cleveland
QB Darnold. Even if there are 4-5 1st rounders available and one of them will still be there at 4, QB is simply too important not to take your top choice. I don't have 4 I like equally well, and I can't believe CLE does either.
2 NY Giants
QB Rosen. I think the hard pushing of "interest in Barkley" is a bluff to try and get CLE to take him at 1 and leave NY their choice of QB. Who telegraphs their real intentions that loudly? If it's not a bluff, they're out of their minds for not taking care of QB when they've got the 2nd pick.
3 NY Jets
QB Mayfield. Allen and Mayfield have been strongly linked. I don't like either's value here, but the trade up had to be for a QB, and Mayfield is the rumor I'm more inclined to believe.
4 Cleveland
HB Barkley. If they stay calm and NY isn't insane, this should work out.
5 Denver
QB Allen. After missing on QB so many times, the most bust-prone of the top QBs probably isn't your favorite idea. With all the $$$ they gave Keenum, I think they see what he can do before committing to something else.
I'm totally undecided what happens instead, though.

pause

[Middleguard]

I'm really hoping that Nelson is there at 8 but the Bears pass him by. I'm sure Pace knows he will be a great pro player, but I'm hoping Pace also knows something we don't and takes a defensive player that he believes will make more of a difference for the team.

[DaSuperfan]

I think if Nelson is gone, Bears surprise and draft Harold Landry at 8. Will be considered a reach but fills a huge need. That's my prediction.

[UOK]

This is for any and all draft thoughts, including the Bears.

[mmmc_35]

I know it's from Aaron Lemming but does this make any damn sense?

Not sure why but something tells me Ryan Pace has a secret love for Derwin James.

If the #Bears are forced to stay at 8 & Nelson/Chubb are gone, I could see a situation where a versatile DB could make some sense. #Bears

[Atkins&Rebel]

I know it's from Aaron Lemming but does this make any damn sense?

Not sure why but something tells me Ryan Pace has a secret love for Derwin James.

If the #Bears are forced to stay at 8 & Nelson/Chubb are gone, I could see a situation where a versatile DB could make some sense. #Bears

If he doesn't think he's re-signing Amos, then Safety makes sense and might be a better nickel/dime back than Callahan/LeBlanc/McManis

We have put a lot of scouting into the Safety position looking at all the meetings the Bears have had.

[wab]

Right now 48 hours before the draft, at 8 I think it’s Nelson or Smith.

[Adipost]

I know it's from Aaron Lemming but does this make any damn sense?

Not sure why but something tells me Ryan Pace has a secret love for Derwin James.

If the #Bears are forced to stay at 8 & Nelson/Chubb are gone, I could see a situation where a versatile DB could make some sense. #Bears

Todd McShay draft rumors:

With the 2018 NFL draft rapidly approaching, I've been making calls to my sources in the league to get a sense for when some of the big-name prospects could come off the board, players who are rising, where the quarterbacks will go and more.

I've compiled a bunch notes from those conversations below, including what I'm hearing from many top-10 teams.

Teams in top 10

Cleveland Browns (Picks 1 and 4) General manager John Dorsey is playing this one close to the vest. Every time I ask anyone I trust in the league, personnel directors and GMs don't know what the Browns are doing. I've heard from GMs further down the board that they've heard the pick at No. 1 will be QB Josh Allen, but they're not sure. The majority of reactions I've received are some form of: "I keep hearing Allen, and I'm surprised." It will be either Allen or Sam Darnold at No. 1.

At No. 4, the Browns will run the card up and take either Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, from what I'm hearing. The question is only which one. If both are available, I'm not sure whom they prefer. Chubb would seem to make more sense to pair opposite Myles Garrett.

New York Giants (2) There is no indication at this point that the Giants are willing to move out of the No. 2 spot. If Allen does go No. 1, some people believe the Giants will take Darnold. I don't believe New York would take any other QB at No. 2.

Many people outside the organization have said to me, "Giants are taking, Chubb, right? It's the obvious pick." Inside the organization, anyone I've talked to who claims to know what's going on feels like the pick will be Barkley.

New York Jets (3) From what I understand, Darnold is their top choice if he's there. They've narrowed it to three QBs after moving up from No. 6. I'm not sure of the order after Darnold, but Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are the other two QBs they're considering.

Denver Broncos (5) Denver has become really interesting. Early in the process in February, one of my sources said they had legitimate interest in Mayfield. After the Broncos signed Case Keenum, I kind of wrote it off. But someone recently pointed out that Gary Kubiak loves Keenum, and when you watch the tape, you see similarities between Keenum and Mayfield. Mayfield could come in as a backup, learn and develop into a starter down the road. If they don't take Mayfield (or he's off the board), I don't think they love anyone outside of Chubb. If it's not Mayfield and if Chubb is off the board, look for Denver to try to move down. This draft is loaded with Day 2 talent and the Broncos could look to fill a few holes on their roster with additional picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7) It seems like they have narrowed in on Derwin James. James going to Tampa Bay seems like the worst-kept secret in the NFL right now.

Chicago Bears (8) They're in a good spot. If one of the four QBs is available here, this is probably when we'll see a QB-needy team (Buffalo, Arizona, etc.) move up. If not, Chicago needs a guard, CB and several other positions. The Bears could wind up with one of the top three players in this draft at No. 8 if Nelson is the pick.

Oakland Raiders (10) The name I keep hearing is Roquan Smith, but I think it's highly likely he's gone by this point. Two other names I've heard are Tremaine Edmunds and Vita Vea, but remember: Jon Gruden is back in charge, and it's his first draft. There could always be a last-minute change.

Buffalo Bills (12, 22) Buffalo is trying to move up. I feel very confident in saying if the Bills can't move up to get the QB they want, it won't be from a lack of trying.

Arizona Cardinals (15) They've been really quiet throughout this process, but it won't surprise me a bit if they deal up for a QB. I know there's some love for Allen and some love for Mayfield in that building.

New England Patriots (23, 31) If you've heard anything, let me know. True to form, I've gotten nothing of substance about their draft.

Players

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

I've thought for a while that he would go in the first round, but now I feel stronger than ever that will be the case. I just don't know which team. The four teams I'm hearing are most likely, based on their creative thinking and offensive minds: Jacksonville, New Orleans, New England and Pittsburgh.

Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Multiple teams have asked me about him. On tape, he's a top-15 or top-20 pick (he's my 18th-ranked prospect), but teams are trying to sort through some off-field baggage. He's a player with a wide range in selection, probably from 20 to 40, but it has nothing to do with his talent on the field.

The three likely first-round wide receivers I hear are

Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore and Courtland Sutton. Ridley is the best route runner, Moore is great after the catch and Sutton will likely go Day 1 because he's 6-foot-4 and ran well.

If there's going to be a second RB in Round 1

Sony Michel has the best chance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Barkley, and then the next two backs were from Georgia. There are more questions surrounding Derrius Guice and Ronald Jones II than there were at the end of the season. Best guess is Guice won't be in Round 1, and Jones won't be one of the top three RBs off the board.

It's not a draft full of elite talent along the offensive line, but teams are keenly aware there will be a run -- and when the run happens, the talent remaining will be ugly.

Offensive linemen I'm hearing are likely to go in Round 1:

OT: Nelson, Mike McGlinchey, Kolton Miller

OC/OG: James Daniels, Connor Williams

Don't be surprised if Geron Christian and Orlando Brown are gone by the end of Round 2, because O-line talent drops off severely after them.

Here are a few players being widely debated, along with the range in which they could be selected:

Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA: Picks 14-23

Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College: 20-30. He's looked at as a 3-4 OLB. After first two edge rushers, he's the next guy.

Taven Bryan, DT, Florida: Some mixed opinions. Likely a late-Day 1 or early-Day 2 pick.
And a few players with durability or off-field concerns:

Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia: A potential first- or early-second-round pick, but multiple teams are looking into a durability issue. Nothing major, but could cause him to slip in the second.

Mo Hurst, DT, Michigan: Because of the nature of his heart condition, several teams have taken him off their board. It's a risk-reward issue, but he could fall into Day 3.

Rasheem Green, DE, USC: More durability issues than I was aware of early on.

WRs Jordan Lasley (UCLA) and Antonio Callaway (Florida): Character concerns about Lasley and Callaway are real. Not a big surprise. You could make an argument that Callaway is the most talented WR in the draft, but he could go Day 3. If Lasley was clean, he could be a Day 2 pick

[G08]

Right now 48 hours before the draft, at 8 I think it’s Nelson or Smith.

With you 100 percent.

[Z Bear]

Why do people think the Bears need a CB? I just do not see the need as you have Prince and Fuller on the outside for a decent chunk of cap space, plus Cooper backing them up. Then you have LeBlanc and Callahan in the slot plus Sherrick McManus. That is already a crowded DB room and really not much of a chance to upgrade. I do not see anyway possible the Bears use a 1st or 2nd day pick on a CB this year.

[UOK]

Why do people think the Bears need a CB? I just do not see the need as you have Prince and Fuller on the outside for a decent chunk of cap space, plus Cooper backing them up. Then you have LeBlanc and Callahan in the slot plus Sherrick McManus. That is already a crowded DB room and really not much of a chance to upgrade. I do not see anyway possible the Bears use a 1st or 2nd day pick on a CB this year.

Prince is injury prone, Fuller missed virtually an entire season to a knee injury, Cooper proved he can't be relied on whatsoever, Callahan is a solid nickel but not much else, LeBlanc is the same, McManus is elite special teams & a poor corner. There is massive room to upgrade.

[thunderspirit]

Why do people think the Bears need a CB? I just do not see the need as you have Prince and Fuller on the outside for a decent chunk of cap space, plus Cooper backing them up. Then you have LeBlanc and Callahan in the slot plus Sherrick McManus. That is already a crowded DB room and really not much of a chance to upgrade. I do not see anyway possible the Bears use a 1st or 2nd day pick on a CB this year.

Prince is injury prone, Fuller missed virtually an entire season to a knee injury, Cooper proved he can't be relied on whatsoever, Callahan is a solid nickel but not much else, LeBlanc is the same, McManus is elite special teams & a poor corner. There is massive room to upgrade.

All of this.

That said, three years of Ryan Pace drafts tells me that any upgrade is likely to wait until Day 3 in any case.

[Mikefive]

Right now 48 hours before the draft, at 8 I think it’s Nelson or Smith.

I'm thinking Nelson or Edmunds. Edmunds has the uncoachable physical characteristics.