2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

[staleystarch]

If the Bears go WR with pick 8 I prefer Cortand Sutton over Christian Kirk. I know there are some good sub 6 foot WR in the league, Antonio Brown just one example. Still, I prefer big WRs in the end zone. Cortland Sutton fits that bill.

Now that Nagy has come in and intends to run more spread I’ve changed my preference to Christian Kirk. Speed fits the new system more than a big guy with a big wingspan who can fight CBs for the ball. We’ll still have Shaheen close in in a crowded end zone.

Kirk is my guy in R2. But doubt he gets that far. If we trade with Buffalo and get their 21-22 picks, I'd go for Landry and Kirk back to back.

I agree. To be honest, barring an amazing combine and private workout I could not justify picking him at eight either. Even Ridley may be a stretch there too.

[The Marshall Plan]

I'll be breathing into the brown paper bag again if we take Ridley at #8. I'm just not ready for another WR in the first round. Why Pace would want to emulate Matt Millen is beyond me.

[malk]

Trade down with the Bills and give me Landry and Kirk.

I don't see it happening but I think there are pretty good odds that the Bills don't find a trade partner before our pick and there's a QB they like remaining when it comes around. I can't find a player that I like enough in our situation at #8 so that's my hope beyond hope right now.

For the record I see no way that Pace pulls the trigger on that trade.

[G08]

Trade down with the Bills and give me Landry and Kirk.

I don't see it happening but I think there are pretty good odds that the Bills don't find a trade partner before our pick and there's a QB they like remaining when it comes around. I can't find a player that I like enough in our situation at #8 so that's my hope beyond hope right now.

For the record I see no way that Pace pulls the trigger on that trade.

I just don't love anyone at 8 and I'm of the opinion that you don't draft guards or right tackles with a top 8 pick. I guess we could take a corner there.

Maybe we "reach" for a pass rusher (doubt Chubb will be there) at #8 and then take the best WR in round 2? Grab a RT in round 4?

[The Marshall Plan]

Strictly using Kiper's board and assuming I had to hold onto the #8 pick, I would take Roquan Smith and be totally happy with that.

If I could trade with Buffalo, then its Landry and Tarvarus Jackson.

[DaSuperfan]

If the Kiper draft fell that way I'd go Landry straight up at 8. Look up his 2016 tape when he was healthy. He was a dominant edge rusher.

Right now, Landry is my top guy for the Bears in R1.

[thunderspirit]

Yogabba mentioned this in another thread, but he brought up a good point about what trends we've seen in Ryan Pace's drafts.

We've no indication of what he'll do with something that's not a top 10 pick, but his three Day 1 selections have all had elite traits for their position. While I don't anticipate it in 2018, both 2016 (Leonard Floyd) and 2017 (Mitchell Trubisky) also established that he'll move up in the draft to get the guy he wants.

Day 2 has usually been reserved for linemen (Eddie Goldman and Hroniss Grasu in 2016, Cody Whitehair and Jonathan Bullard in 2017). 2018 saw him draft Adam Shaheen, another elite traits guy; whether that's a sign of Day 2 things to come or not remains to be seen.

Day 3 appears to be Pace's day for defensive backs: Adrian Amos (2016), Deon Bush/Deiondre' Hall/DeAndre Houston-Carson (2017), and Eddie Jackson (2018). This is clearly a trend in my mind. An important secondary trend to note here is that each of his defensive back draftees has measured 6'0" or taller. Likewise, Day 3 is also when he takes running backs: Jeremy Langford (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), and Tarik Cohen (2017). There's no apparent overriding commonality there, although each did have a broad jump measurement of 118 inches (9'10"), which is one of the tests used to measure explosiveness. That's worth watching. I think it's a safe conclusion to expect the Bears to add a DB and RB in rounds 4-7.

Pace's late selections (Tayo Fabuluje in 2015, Daniel Braverman in 2016, and probably Jordan Morgan in 2017) appear to be trying to find lightning in a bottle. Fabuluje had elite size, if not much else. Braverman had a really good 3-cone time and displayed excellent hands in college, though athletically he showed little promise otherwise. And Morgan, from a rather shallow draft, was a Division II player whom they believe has promise — I don't share their optimism, but I'll be glad to eat crow about that if he succeeds.

FWIW, when evaluating his draft record, I've said before that I consider most drafts to be between 150-175 players deep, give or take, and that anything beyond that point is a lottery ticket. So my evaluations are scored taking that into account.

2015: 5 selections through 5 rounds, .333 success rate (2/5) — Goldman, Amos
2016: 7 selections through 5 rounds, .571 success rate (4/7) — Floyd, Whitehair, Kwiatkoski, Howard; jury out on Bullard and Hall
2017: 5 selections through 5 rounds, .600 success rate (3/5) — Trubisky, Jackson, Cohen; jury still out on Shaheen and Morgan

[Mikefive]

Looks like you can cross the top WRs off the list in R1-2 now with the signing of ARob and maybe Taylor Gabriel?

[46Blitz]

Looks like you can cross the top WRs off the list in R1-2 now with the signing of ARob and maybe Taylor Gabriel?

Yeah, pretty much think their aggressiveness in FA shows that they are not overwhelmed over any of the prospects at 8 in the WR department.

The more this FA period shakes out, barring any trades for players or draft picks I think we can narrow down to 3 positions on day one. OL, LB, and CB.

Feel that we will be getting a OL player in the first furthering their commitment to set Trubisky up for success.

After securing OL, they will have addressed every position offensively of need. They will then add to position of need on defense. Think this will be BPA out of CB or LB with second.

[UOK]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nf ... um=twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bears meeting with Chubb.

[Rusty Trombagent]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nf ... um=twitter

Bears meeting with Chubb.

WOOOOOOO

[Mikefive]

Mostly we share opinions about who the Bears SHOULD draft. But that's NOT the question here, which is to get into the mind of Ryan Pace and state what he actually WILL do.

Let's play this like a wager--even though it isn't. Every participant has an imaginary $100 wagered on the outcome, the total of which will be divided up by all correct guessers. Note that making a less popular choice can result in a much bigger bounty.

Make your guess and argue why you think that's who Pace will take. And as always, you can change your answer up until the draft begins.

And just so you know, if you argue in this thread who Pace SHOULD select, then you will deservedly be publicly flogged for not following directions. Besides, there are other places to discuss that.

[wab]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

[Mikefive]

My first shot at this--which I'm still contemplating--is a rather obvious choice.

Ryan Pace will select Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech

Here's why:
1. Championship teams have to have a pass rush. And right now, Pace has to know that what we have is insufficient. Further, Lynch is on a 1-year prove it deal. He'll see that this guy isn't necessarily the future and he'll have to have another answer in the mix.
2. Pace is one of those guys who loves to draft traits over production numbers, particularly those traits that can't be coached. (See Floyd, Leonard.)
3. While Pace did spend a lot of $$$ on defense with the 2 CB signings, he didn't really help our defense get BETTER, which he did on offense. He knows after the losses of Unrein, McPhee, Young and Houston that he needs to give Fangio something to get excited about.
4. While Pace has shown that he can do the unexpected with the Trubisky trade up, he also has behaved more conventionally with his choice of Leonard Floyd that many guessed. So it's understandable if he goes with a popular option.

[G08]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

[Mikefive]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

Of course there are too many variables to predict! But that's why you (and I say that collectively) are a master mind reader and market prognosticator to put your imaginary dollars where your message board mouth is. Hell, you got recorded talking Bears for an hour in your underwear (I hope) this past weekend. You must have unique skills... or knowledge... or something.

[Hematite]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

[G08]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

I could very well see that as the scenario. If Edmunds, Davenport, and Landry are there and Pace is hell-bent on getting an EDGE, he should trade down to 11 or 12.

[wab]

Everyone is acting like there's only like 3-4 pass rushers in this draft. Edmunds is my favorite, but he's a big time projection. I waver on him because he's so similar to Floyd and he likely wouldn't play right away.

I'm on record saying that when it comes to top 10 picks, I'm against drafting part time players. You can get a part time pass rusher in the 4th.

[Hematite]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

I could very well see that as the scenario. If Edmunds, Davenport, and Landry are there and Pace is hell-bent on getting an EDGE, he should trade down to 11 or 12.

I'm of the thinking that 4 QB's go before us. Somebody is gonna fall that shouldn't. If by chance 1 or more of the Qb's are still on the board at 8, we will have offers pouring in for a trade up.

In my view, we are in a very good spot.

[wab]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

If you look at Fangio's history he prefers one "athlete" at LB, and one "thumper" opposite him. For a long time he had Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Then Lynch and Skuta.

With the Bears he's had Young/McClellin/Jones/Floyd as the "athletes" and McPhee/Houston/Acho as the "thumpers"

Now he's got Floyd/Lynch as his athletic guys and really only Acho as the thumper.

[G08]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

If you look at Fangio's history he prefers one "athlete" at LB, and one "thumper" opposite him. For a long time he had Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Then Lynch and Skuta.

With the Bears he's had Young/McClellin/Jones/Floyd as the "athletes" and McPhee/Houston/Acho as the "thumpers"

Now he's got Floyd/Lynch as his athletic guys and really only Acho as the thumper.

Who's the round 2 thumper... Sam Hubbard?

[DaSuperfan]

I'm going to predict that Chubb falls past the Browns at 4 and triggers Pace to trade up with the Broncos at 5 to take Bradley Chubb ahead of the Colts at 6. One thing we've seen from Pace in the past 3 drafts, is he's not afraid of getting his guy. Bears need a pass rusher and Chubb is the best one in this class. I think he makes a bold move even if it requires sending some draft capital this year and next year. While I wouldn't agree with doing that, it's just my gut feeling.

[cblaz11]

Harold Landry in the 1st, Billy Price in the 2nd.

[wab]

One of the things I've noticed about Pace is that if he loads up on a position in FA, he doesn't attack that position in the draft. He's done it with LB in the past (McPhee, Acho, Freeman, and Trevathan) and last year it was corner and WR (even though WR turned out to be a weakness). With the positions he largely ignores - like safety a couple years ago, he attacks that position in the draft.

This year he attacked WR and corner again (even though it was correcting his WR mistakes from last year and bringing back Fuller and the guys he signed at CB last year). So far he's largely ignored the defensive line, offensive line, and LB - these are the positions I expect him to attack in the draft. And he loves to double up on picks too...so I could see six of the Bears seven picks being a DE and DT, an OG and OT, and an OLB and ILB.

[G08]

One of the things I've noticed about Pace is that if he loads up on a position in FA, he doesn't attack that position in the draft. He's done it with LB in the past (McPhee, Acho, Freeman, and Trevathan) and last year it was corner and WR (even though WR turned out to be a weakness). With the positions he largely ignores - like safety a couple years ago, he attacks that position in the draft.

This year he attacked WR and corner again (even though it was correcting his WR mistakes from last year and bringing back Fuller and the guys he signed at CB last year). So far he's largely ignored the defensive line, offensive line, and LB - these are the positions I expect him to attack in the draft. And he loves to double up on picks too...so I could see six of the Bears seven picks being a DE and DT, an OG and OT, and an OLB and ILB.

I can definitely see that... at minimum I'm expecting an OG, swing Tackle, EDGE, ILB, and 5T.

I'd love to find a way to get back into the middle of round 3 and draft Josey Jewell.

[wab]

I don't think Jewell is worth a 3rd round pick.


(homer)

[G08]

[SC Bear]

If Nelson is there he is the pick
If Nelson is gone Smith is the pick

I don't think he takes Edmomds. He is a project and may turn out to be a HOF player. However, based on where we are now we need production now.

[G08]

If Nelson is there he is the pick
If Nelson is gone Smith is the pick

I don't think he takes Edmomds. He is a project and may turn out to be a HOF player. However, based on where we are now we need production now.

Agreed about Nelson, but if he's not there I can see a legitimate argument being made for Edmunds, Davenport, and Fitzpatrick at minimum.