Jamal Adams - #3 overall?

[G08]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.

[Middleguard]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I found that interesting as well, and it makes me re-think taking Adams there. I have never really considered the cap ramifications of taking certain positions higher than others in the draft, though I assume that after you get out of the top 10 it probably becomes a moot point.

Which is a hugh part of the reason that no team out of the top 10 will be willing to trade up to #3 with the Bears.

[Moriarty]

Found this interesting:

Bears fans who want a S at No. 3. Avg per year guarantee would be ~$6.5m. That's $1.5m more than any NFL S.

I can't find the original, but that's either incorrect or misleading, depending on the exact wording.

There's top safeties with plenty more than 5M in guarantee and most are young enough that they will very likely get their full contract.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Obviously, a safety at 3 has to be pretty good to fit into that company and be a decent value.

[Boris13c]

whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3

[G08]

whatever the cap hit, I believe Jamal Adams is now going to be the Bears pick at #3

If his shoulders check out, I think it's going to be Jonathan Allen.

Fits a huge need at 5T, can kick inside to 3T in sub packages (or nose if you want to go that route), and he's a hedge if Hicks wants to break the bank in 2018.

Hell of a guy off the field as well, clean character/leader which is right up Pace's alley.

[wab]

I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.

He's the only one they have met with multiple times.

[G08]

I think it's going to be Allen too. And I'm going to be very underwhelmed.

He's the only one they have met with multiple times.

Yup. I wish he had more juice but he just doesn't.

I see a "weaker" Justin Smith in his game.

[wab]

I mean, I suppose he'll be fine. I don't see Hicks sticking around unless they completely give up on Bullard. Bullard and Allen are just such similar players.

[mshu7]

TENDANCY is a great method for scouting a player, coach or team's "next move". With that said, let's look at Pace's draft tendancy since arriving in Chicago in 2015.

Based on Pace's first 2 drafts, he likes to go after play-makers / high-ceiling / high-risk / boom or bust type guys in the 1st round. He's swinging for the fences basically. I don't see any offensive or defensive lineman (non-LB's) a fit for Pace's R1 selection so we can probably cross J. Allen off the list.

2015 R1: K. White
2016 R1: L. Flloyd

In rounds 2 and 3, he likes to then start building from the "inside-out", solidifying the trenches, getting as much value with that pick as he can, even trading down to get more value.

2015 R2: E. Goldman
2015 R3: H. Grasu

2016 R2: C. Whitehair
2016 R3: J. Bullard

With all that said, I have no clue what players Pace covets in the draft. But based on his tendancies over his first 2 drafts, I think we can gain a pretty good idea of the "player profile" that he is looking for.

The only caveat I'll add is injury. Both White & Flloyd have had injury issues since coming into the league. I don't think Pace can or will risk drafting a player in R1 this year that has injury concerns. Not only would he get raked over the coals by fans and media, but that could be 3 R1 strikes in 3 years. I could definitely see Pace going more conservative in regards to injury history with his R1 pick. If thats the case, put another line through J. Allen and cross Hooker & Lattimore off the list as well.

So, who fit's those profiles?

[Nanky]

TENDANCY

So, who fit's those profiles?

I think it'll be a QB or Thomas. I originally thought Hooker would be his pick, but with all the S depth we have now and his injury, I don't think he'll get picked at #3 any more.

[crueltyabc]

Boom or bust guys I see are Mahomes, Njoku, Reddick, and Cook... and of that list I guess Mahomes is a need and Njoku is a fit?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thunderspirit]

Pace's trend uses both high risk/reward and elite athleticism. If we work under the assumption that Pace will follow that trend for 2017, you are looking for that level of athlete with corresponding tape that projects into the first round. For reference, Kevin White and Leonard Floyd both were in the 90th percentile athlete category based on their NFL Combine numbers; I'm only considering guys who worked out at the Combine here.

crueltyabc is correct about David Njoku, but Njoku has company; Evan Engram is right there with him athletically and production-wise. I think Njoku goes top 10, so he could conceivably be in play at #3; and I'll be surprised if Engram isn't a first-rounder as well come draft day.

From the WRs, Zay Jones and Chris Godwin are elite athletes, and have good enough tape to go on Day 1. No RBs or offensive linemen fit the elite athleticism thresholds; Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey rank highest at RB, while Garett Boles and Forrest Lamp rank highest at OL. For the Bears' purposes, I like Boles a lot but I'd be surprised to see him at #3 overall. You'd be getting the best offensive line athlete overall, though. I doubt Pace looks at WR until Day 2 or RB until Day 3 in any case.

Defensively, Solomon Thomas is an obvious choice: both first-round tape and athleticism. Haason Reddick and TJ Watt aren't far behind. (I presume that Myles Garrett would also qualify, had he done the 3-cone and/or short shuttle at the Combine.) The guy who defensively is a dark horse at #3 is Kevin King, who checks all the boxes of a Fangio CB — he's tall, long, and is a willing tackler with experience at safety — and is a 99th percentile athlete. His tape is inconsistent, but if he hits, he's a home run. Colorado's Akhello Witherspoon is a notch below but still 92nd percentile. I'd bet money that both King and Witherspoon are gonna go in the top half of the first.

Jonathan Allen and Jamal Adams both look like they fit the "good football players on Day 2" approach Pace appears to use rather than "elite athlete/upside" approach he seems to have for Day 1. I would be surprised if either is the choice at #3.

All of this goes out the window if Pace goes QB, of course. We have no reference for his evaluation of QB beyond the vapid words he's used to identify the traits for which he's looking.

[G08]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

[mshu7]

Great post thunderspirit! I forgot about his tendancy for valuing elite athleticism. I could be wrong, but weren't a lot of his 2015 picks the fastest 40 yard dash guys as well? Langford is one of the ones I'm thinking of.

Anyway, that's a lot of great info you've shared in your post. Thanks!

[wab]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.

Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.

[Adipost]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.

Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.

So Hooker doesn't possess elite physical traits? And Fuller is a goner?? That's news to me.

[G08]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.

Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.

The only reason I pause on Lattimore is because of how deep the corner class is this year.

Thomas makes a ton of sense but I have a feeling San Fran is going to draft him.

I'm kind of hoping we can trade back a few spots, pick up a 2nd rounder, and then take one of the safeties.

[wab]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.

Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.

So Hooker doesn't possess elite physical traits? And Fuller is a goner?? That's news to me.

I feel like you just look at draft tweets and don't actually pay attention to what is happening on this team.

[thunderspirit]

I missed one: Utah safety Marcus Williams also fits.

He doesn't have the same upside that Kevin King has, but has better overall tape than either King or Witherspoon, and he's in the 93rd percentile athletically.

[mmmc_35]

I missed one: Utah safety Marcus Williams also fits.

He doesn't have the same upside that Kevin King has, but has better overall tape than either King or Witherspoon, and he's in the 93rd percentile athletically.

Kings tape is under rated. What I watched, teams really didn't throw his way. "Scouting Reports" kind of painted him in a light because of his build more then his skill.

[Adipost]

One of these, in no particular order:

Solomon Thomas
Jonathan Allen
Marshon Lattimore
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Out of those, only Thomas and Lattimore have the "elite physical traits" that Pace looks for in R1.

Fuller is by all accounts a goner, Hall, DHC, Bush, and Amos all look to be blown picks (you don't move around guys and then sign 3 FA's with large guarantees at a position with the most depth on the roster if you think you hit on your picks)...so Lattimore could be the pick. He's frail and fast...so you might as well write his name down at #3.

So Hooker doesn't possess elite physical traits? And Fuller is a goner?? That's news to me.

I feel like you just look at draft tweets and don't actually pay attention to what is happening on this team.

Please explain.

[BamaBear09]

Just improved his 40 at his pro day somewhere in high 4.3 to low 4.4 range...

[G08]

Man... I'd love to get him in a trade down, I still feel #3 is too rich.

I wouldn't hate it though, especially if he's a legit 4.4 cat.

[wab]

If they pick Adams, Hall has to stay at corner. HJQ and Prosinski get cut, Amos is used more as an in the box LB on running downs, Bush is the primary backup in the nickle/dime, and DHC is relegated to Special teams.

The Bears can ill afford to carry 6 safeties. Demps/Adams/Bush/Amos/DHC is still pushing the roster limits.

[G08]

I agree, but WAB if you do go best player there's nothing wrong with knocking lesser talent off the roster or relegating them to special teams.

I'd hate to bypass a top tier talent because Mitch Unrein and Jonathan Bullard are here, for example.

[G08]

Reports of LSU safety Jamal Adams running the 40-yard dash in the 4.3-4.4 range at his pro day will check off a major box for NFL scouts. That's Top 10 speed when paired with Adam's game film. He has natural instincts at the position, the versatility to cover in the slot and the physicality to impact the run game. Adams could be the first safety to come off the board in the NFL draft and I believe his style of play can help change the identity of a pro secondary.

Matt Bowen, ESPN Staff Writer

[wab]

I agree, but WAB if you do go best player there's nothing wrong with knocking lesser talent off the roster or relegating them to special teams.

I'd hate to bypass a top tier talent because Mitch Unrein and Jonathan Bullard are here, for example.

I don't disagree. And I'd rather them draft a safety than a corner because I don't think Bush is a starter. I think Amos will be better if he's playing SS.

For me it's Watson (won't happen), Thomas (assuming he plays LB), Adams, Allen, Hooker, Lattimore. In that order.

[Atkins&Rebel]

I don't mind taking a Safety at all given who we have on the roster.

I think people in general look at guys on the roster and try to convince themselves that we won't take player X because we have a guy on the roster. That is Pace's MO...to fill the roster prior to the draft then take who he has rated high. After the guaranteed money is gone, no one's job is safe of the whole roster including QB. So if you have a guy with 1 guaranteed year and the primary backup only on a 1 year deal, then hell yes QB is in play for anyone with enough upside to start in 2 seasons.

[wab]

I don't mind taking a Safety at all given who we have on the roster.

I think people in general look at guys on the roster and try to convince themselves that we won't take player X because we have a guy on the roster. That is Pace's MO...to fill the roster prior to the draft then take who he has rated high. After the guaranteed money is gone, no one's job is safe of the whole roster including QB. So if you have a guy with 1 guaranteed year and the primary backup only on a 1 year deal, then hell yes QB is in play for anyone with enough upside to start in 2 seasons.

And that's fine...but you start getting log jams at positions and have to let guys go while they are still on rookie contracts. That's cheap labor. The foundation of the team in the salary cap era is built on those guys. You also run the risk of letting young players go before they are fully developed and evaluated.