The 2024 Draft

[G08]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/ ... nfl-draft/

There's. That. Name. Again.


With Biggs talking about it now, I almost expect Murphy to be the pick.

[Bearfacts]

Some things that stand out to me other than his size and strength; his hands, his body control, and his ability to track the ball downfield. That last is very elite. He's like a great center fielder in baseball able to track the ball to where he can catch it.

[Bearfacts]

I've considered that possibility, too. It does make some sense. I can't see them doing it, in the end, though. They need something to sell their fanbase on. And there's nothing better suited to doing that than a shiny new QB.


Dude, the odds of Keenan Allen retiring as a Bear are high. You don't spent a fourth round pick on a 32 year old guy, and then send that guy to your shiny new QBs Pro Day, if you're not going to re-sign him.



In the unlikely event that Poles stays put at #9 and drafts a receiver there, I'd imagine he'd prefer Odunze, as that kid brings stuff that Moore doesn't have (or have nearly as much of).

If Allen wants a 3 year, $75M deal with $48 guaranteed, do you do it? I'm not sure I do...

Nor would I. Not when that's the kind of AAV we're talking about for Moore. Poles is not gonna pay two WR that kind of money. But one advantage we do have is that Moore's current deal is not very costly at roughly $16 mil per year for 2024-2025. That makes it possible to pay Allen his $23 mil this year and next if if he'll accept a one year extension. But beyond 2025 I don't see it.

So drafting a WR now when you can get one who could easily be just as good or better isn't a luxury IMHO. Not when the talent level of this top trio far exceeds the top defensive players in this draft. Next year it's said to be the year for DL. If that's true then draft into the strength of each draft. WR this year DL next. That's how you assure yourself of not over drafting for position.

[G08]

If Allen wants a 3 year, $75M deal with $48 guaranteed, do you do it? I'm not sure I do...

Nor would I. Not when that's the kind of AAV we're talking about for Moore. Poles is not gonna pay two WR that kind of money. But one advantage we do have is that Moore's current deal is not very costly at roughly $16 mil per year for 2024-2025. That makes it possible to pay Allen his $23 mil this year and next if if he'll accept a one year extension. But beyond 2025 I don't see it.

So drafting a WR now when you can get one who could easily be just as good or better isn't a luxury IMHO. Not when the talent level of this top trio far exceeds the top defensive players in this draft. Next year it's said to be the year for DL. If that's true then draft into the strength of each draft. WR this year DL next. That's how you assure yourself of not over drafting for position.

I haven't looked at next year's class but if it has top tier DL talent, having our first plus two second round picks is gold.

[wulfy]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/ ... nfl-draft/

There's. That. Name. Again.


With Biggs talking about it now, I almost expect Murphy to be the pick.

I think Poles (and ‘flus) have basic physical requirements for DL (especially). Despite the tape, Murphy literally doesn’t measure up to what they want in a 3T. I would truly be shocked if they drafted him at 9.

[G08]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/ ... nfl-draft/

There's. That. Name. Again.


With Biggs talking about it now, I almost expect Murphy to be the pick.

I think Poles (and ‘flus) have basic physical requirements for DL (especially). Despite the tape, Murphy literally doesn’t measure up to what they want in a 3T. I would truly be shocked if they drafted him at 9.

Yeah I do as well but as I think about it, I don't necessarily believe height is as important when the sheer goal of the 3T is to penetrate the B cap as quickly as possible.

Murphy measured 6'0.5, 306 lbs; you get him down to about 285, 290 and I'd be willing to bet his 1.69 ten-yard split turns into 1.63 or quicker (for reference: Aaron Donald* measured 6'0.75, 285 lbs and had a ten-yard split of 1.63). If Eberflus and friends think Murphy can get 75-80% of Donald's production in our scheme, I'd sprint to the podium at #9 and draft him.


*Donald had a better short shuttle, much better 3-cone and 1/4" longer arms

[RichH55]

I think Poles (and ‘flus) have basic physical requirements for DL (especially). Despite the tape, Murphy literally doesn’t measure up to what they want in a 3T. I would truly be shocked if they drafted him at 9.

Yeah I do as well but as I think about it, I don't necessarily believe height is as important when the sheer goal of the 3T is to penetrate the B cap as quickly as possible.

Murphy measured 6'0.5, 306 lbs; you get him down to about 285, 290 and I'd be willing to bet his 1.69 ten-yard split turns into 1.63 or quicker (for reference: Aaron Donald* measured 6'0.75, 285 lbs and had a ten-yard split of 1.63). If Eberflus and friends think Murphy can get 75-80% of Donald's production in our scheme, I'd sprint to the podium at #9 and draft him.


*Donald had a better short shuttle, much better 3-cone and 1/4" longer arms

No Aaron Donald comps

[Grizzled]

If the Bears trade down from #9 (from SM):

To between 12 and 15: 3rd round pick expected
Possible targets: Brian Thomas, Olu Fashanu, JC Latham, Laiatu Latu, Byron Murphy. I'd add Brock Bowers to the list

To between 16 and 20: 2nd round pick expeted
Xavier Worthy, Troy Fautanu, Tyler Guyton (not so sure on this one), Graham Barton, Jared Verse. I'll add Jackson Powers-Johnson, Taliese Fuaga, and JerZahn Newton to the list

To between 21 and 28: Day 2 pick and 2025 1st expected
Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Morgan, Darius Robinson, Chop Robinson. I'd add Amarius Mimms to the list, put Guyton more in this category. Haven't seen McConkey going 1st round, maybe towards to the back end

[G08]

Yeah I do as well but as I think about it, I don't necessarily believe height is as important when the sheer goal of the 3T is to penetrate the B cap as quickly as possible.

Murphy measured 6'0.5, 306 lbs; you get him down to about 285, 290 and I'd be willing to bet his 1.69 ten-yard split turns into 1.63 or quicker (for reference: Aaron Donald* measured 6'0.75, 285 lbs and had a ten-yard split of 1.63). If Eberflus and friends think Murphy can get 75-80% of Donald's production in our scheme, I'd sprint to the podium at #9 and draft him.


*Donald had a better short shuttle, much better 3-cone and 1/4" longer arms

No Aaron Donald comps

Geno Atkins or Grady Jarrett then

[HisRoyalSweetness]

No Aaron Donald comps

Geno Atkins or Grady Jarrett then

How about Drew Brees?

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/ ... nfl-draft/

There's. That. Name. Again.


With Biggs talking about it now, I almost expect Murphy to be the pick.

I get that Flus needs a dominant 3-tech in his defense. But I can think of 2-3 positions we need more than a DT right now. I would say; EDGE, WR, S.

If the Vikings jump up and grab JJ McCarthy, then we have a decent shot at Turner or Odunze. At this point if Allen or Moore go down with an injury, we're kinda screwed. We also need a better EDGE player opposite Sweat. I don't see a S going in the first round, but there will be premier athletes at #9 when we pick.

[Yogi da Bear]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/ ... nfl-draft/

There's. That. Name. Again.


With Biggs talking about it now, I almost expect Murphy to be the pick.

I think Poles (and ‘flus) have basic physical requirements for DL (especially). Despite the tape, Murphy literally doesn’t measure up to what they want in a 3T. I would truly be shocked if they drafted him at 9.

I agree. I think it's much more likely that he'd slide way down and take Darius Robinson, whose 40 just about guaranteed him a switch back to DT. I also don't think that Poles will take Turner for the same reason.

I think Poles (and ‘flus) have basic physical requirements for DL (especially). Despite the tape, Murphy literally doesn’t measure up to what they want in a 3T. I would truly be shocked if they drafted him at 9.

Yeah I do as well but as I think about it, I don't necessarily believe height is as important when the sheer goal of the 3T is to penetrate the B cap as quickly as possible.

Murphy measured 6'0.5, 306 lbs; you get him down to about 285, 290 and I'd be willing to bet his 1.69 ten-yard split turns into 1.63 or quicker (for reference: Aaron Donald* measured 6'0.75, 285 lbs and had a ten-yard split of 1.63). If Eberflus and friends think Murphy can get 75-80% of Donald's production in our scheme, I'd sprint to the podium at #9 and draft him.


*Donald had a better short shuttle, much better 3-cone and 1/4" longer arms

I made the same mistake last year when I used Tommie Harris and Aaron Donald as metrics when I was pimping AA. Oh well....

[Rusty Trombagent]

Man, with seemingly everyone excited about gervon dexter going into year two, i just refuse to entertain DT being our other first round pick, or even 3T being some kind of priority.

[Bearfacts]

Nor would I. Not when that's the kind of AAV we're talking about for Moore. Poles is not gonna pay two WR that kind of money. But one advantage we do have is that Moore's current deal is not very costly at roughly $16 mil per year for 2024-2025. That makes it possible to pay Allen his $23 mil this year and next if if he'll accept a one year extension. But beyond 2025 I don't see it.

So drafting a WR now when you can get one who could easily be just as good or better isn't a luxury IMHO. Not when the talent level of this top trio far exceeds the top defensive players in this draft. Next year it's said to be the year for DL. If that's true then draft into the strength of each draft. WR this year DL next. That's how you assure yourself of not over drafting for position.

I haven't looked at next year's class but if it has top tier DL talent, having our first plus two second round picks is gold.

That seems to be the word on the street. One reason this years class isn't rated as good is the number of players who due to NIL decided to spend another year in college. I'm just a believer in drafting into the strength of the draft is all. Sure this is deep draft for WR talent but only three are seen as elite difference makers. So why not draft one if he's there?

Next year with a first and two seconds no matter where we pick Poles may find himself in a position to draft and elite DL. This year it's more questionable whether there's even one elite DL. Even Turner doesn't grade out as highly as Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson did yet in this draft he's seen as a potential top ten pick if only because he's the best of a lesser group.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

It bothers me than Odunze seems to be a bit deficient on the YAC. I like a receiver to have good YAC.
That’s my only gripe

[cblaz11]

Murphy doesn’t play with the same explosion that his combine numbers indicate he should..Similar to Rome IMO. Both good players, but not at 9.

[thunderspirit]

Man, with seemingly everyone excited about gervon dexter going into year two, i just refuse to entertain DT being our other first round pick, or even 3T being some kind of priority.

Drafting another DT high would seem to indicate they've soured on either Dexter or Pickens after just one year. That would have to be deemed a significant miss.

Moreover, the idea of drafting Murphy would be confusing (this is not a reflection on Murphy, who's athletic, productive, and competitive) because it would be a significant departure from the physical characteristics that this GM and this coach have identified as important since their arrival.

[G08]

It feels as if most mock drafts are predicting edge rusher Dallas Turner (Alabama) will be the first defensive player drafted Thursday night. And maybe he will be. But there are some front office executives who believe defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (Texas) has a realistic chance of seizing that honor.

It's possible a defender might not be picked until Atlanta at No. 8 or Chicago at No. 9. Murphy could be a consideration for both teams. Murphy, who had five sacks last season, is talented, plays a coveted position and has gotten clean character reports. He might interest new Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who had Aaron Donald dominate at that position when he was the coordinator in Los Angeles.

[G08]

Murphy doesn’t play with the same explosion that his combine numbers indicate he should..Similar to Rome IMO. Both good players, but not at 9.

I saw flashes of it when he wasn't asked to play nose

[UOK]

You'd be surprised. I'd deal with any and all thread/forum nonsense for the rest of my life if it meant drafting a generational QB.

Shit.

[G08]

Pick #9? It might be Pick #8!



Oh baby... please please please please please

[Arkansasbear]

Pick #9? It might be Pick #8!



Oh baby... please please please please please

I just don't see the NFL making that happen so soon. 4 days before the draft you tell the Falcons they aren't having their pick at #8!?!? I think it will occur next year. If you look the prior cases the punishment didn't fall on the year it occurred.

Moving from 8 to 9 would have been very nice in this draft, but I guess we will have to settle for moving from 32 and 64 to 21 and 63. Since I'm looking at the glass half full, this also means we didn't give up a better pick for Sweat.

[wab]

Im hearing from one of my sources , ( some guy on the radio whos name I cant remember ), he thinks the Patriots trade back to try and fill a bunch of holes and either rely on Brisset this year or trade back with thoughts of JJ and stacking picks.

Either way....Thursday night is MUST SEE TV FOR ME!

My prediction: the Pats take Alt and throw everything into a mess.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I just don't see Newton happening with picking Dexter last year and we need a DE2.

Agreed. I think DT should be one of the last positions that we need right now. We need a QB, DE, S, & WR.

[Sweetness34]

Im hearing from one of my sources , ( some guy on the radio whos name I cant remember ), he thinks the Patriots trade back to try and fill a bunch of holes and either rely on Brisset this year or trade back with thoughts of JJ and stacking picks.

Either way....Thursday night is MUST SEE TV FOR ME!

My prediction: the Pats take Alt and throw everything into a mess.

If that happens, Arizona is going to get flooded with calls and walk away very happy with a nice haul. I don't see a scenario where the top 3 picks aren't QB, regardless who actually makes the pick. And if a non-QB does go in the Top3, then Arizona is going to win round 1. But you're right, it would throw everything into chaos for a couple picks.

[G08]

As long as 4 QBs, 1 OT and 2 WR go in front of us, I'm happy.

WR: Nabers/Odunze
OL: Fuaga/Fautanu/Fashanu/Latham
TE: Bowers
DL: Turner/Verse/Latu/Murphy


Looking at this, unless a dude we absolutely love is there at #9, I could see us trading down to ~15...

[dplank]

I've been running this logic through my head and I'm not liking the answer I keep coming up with. WR just isn't making logical sense to me.

We traded a 4th for Allen. We are taking CW at #1. Allen is a UFA after this season, and we aren't really in a position to think Super Bowl this year.

So, a lot of folks want Odunze at 9. The super duper offense concept and all that, but there's only 1 football and Moore/Allen are going to get a ton of targets, Kmet/Everett are going to get a lot of targets also, and Swift a lot of check downs + screens. So the value for a rookie WR this year is minimal. "But Allen will be a UFA in a year" a lot of folks say, which is true. But, here's where the logic falls apart in my head.

If we accept we aren't winning a SB this year (I think this is reasonable) then why would Poles send a 4th round pick for Allen AND draft a WR at 9? If the intention is to let Allen walk, then spending a 4th round pick on him in a year we aren't winning a SB is pretty wasteful. If the intention is to extend Allen, then why do we need 3 #1 WR's? No one has that - 2 #1's is the play not 3 - there aren't enough footballs to satisfy them all. So it all boils down, as far as I can understand it, to Poles pissed away a 4th rounder for nothing - OR - he isn't drafting a WR at 9. If he planned on taking a WR at 9, wouldn't it have made more sense to keep the 4th round pick and let the top shelf rookie WR play opposite DJ Moore?

[LacertineForest]

I've been running this logic through my head and I'm not liking the answer I keep coming up with. WR just isn't making logical sense to me.

We traded a 4th for Allen. We are taking CW at #1. Allen is a UFA after this season, and we aren't really in a position to think Super Bowl this year.

So, a lot of folks want Odunze at 9. The super duper offense concept and all that, but there's only 1 football and Moore/Allen are going to get a ton of targets, Kmet/Everett are going to get a lot of targets also, and Swift a lot of check downs + screens. So the value for a rookie WR this year is minimal. "But Allen will be a UFA in a year" a lot of folks say, which is true. But, here's where the logic falls apart in my head.

If we accept we aren't winning a SB this year (I think this is reasonable) then why would Poles send a 4th round pick for Allen AND draft a WR at 9? If the intention is to let Allen walk, then spending a 4th round pick on him in a year we aren't winning a SB is pretty wasteful. If the intention is to extend Allen, then why do we need 3 #1 WR's? No one has that - 2 #1's is the play not 3 - there aren't enough footballs to satisfy them all. So it all boils down, as far as I can understand it, to Poles pissed away a 4th rounder for nothing - OR - he isn't drafting a WR at 9. If he planned on taking a WR at 9, wouldn't it have made more sense to keep the 4th round pick and let the top shelf rookie WR play opposite DJ Moore?

I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a WR at 9, but I agree with you. I think Poles is true to his word that he likes building through the draft, and I think he will use the #9 pick to get a player he still thinks will be a blue chip player and acquire more draft capital in the process. I think the move will be to draft DL somewhere in the 12 - 18 range and WR later, considering the depth of this WR class.

I could be wrong, and maybe he is happy with just four picks - we are entering a new phase of the rebuild, after all - but I think he'll still end up with 6-7 total picks when it's all said and done.

I do think they'll get something done with Allen, but a lot depends on what Allen wants, too.

[Moriarty]

If we accept we aren't winning a SB this year (I think this is reasonable) then why would Poles send a 4th round pick for Allen AND draft a WR at 9? If the intention is to let Allen walk, then spending a 4th round pick on him in a year we aren't winning a SB is pretty wasteful. If the intention is to extend Allen, then why do we need 3 #1 WR's? No one has that - 2 #1's is the play not 3 - there aren't enough footballs to satisfy them all. So it all boils down, as far as I can understand it, to Poles pissed away a 4th rounder for nothing - OR - he isn't drafting a WR at 9. If he planned on taking a WR at 9, wouldn't it have made more sense to keep the 4th round pick and let the top shelf rookie WR play opposite DJ Moore?

I think those are all important considerations for him and for trying to read him. But there's still lots of uncertain possibilities.


It's certainly very possible he's been focused on defense with the pick all along.
But it's entirely possible he did intentionally burn a R4 on 1yr rental. He spent a R2 for a 1yr trial rental of Claypool, R6 for a 1yr rental of Feeney, R5 for 2(+?) yrs of Bates. R4 for 1yr of Allen wouldn't be uncharacteristic.
It's possible he naively thought working out an extension would be easier than it's shaping up to be.
It's possible he really liked the top 3 WRs, but wasn't confident one would fall.

[wulfy]

I've been running this logic through my head and I'm not liking the answer I keep coming up with. WR just isn't making logical sense to me.

We traded a 4th for Allen. We are taking CW at #1. Allen is a UFA after this season, and we aren't really in a position to think Super Bowl this year.

So, a lot of folks want Odunze at 9. The super duper offense concept and all that, but there's only 1 football and Moore/Allen are going to get a ton of targets, Kmet/Everett are going to get a lot of targets also, and Swift a lot of check downs + screens. So the value for a rookie WR this year is minimal. "But Allen will be a UFA in a year" a lot of folks say, which is true. But, here's where the logic falls apart in my head.

If we accept we aren't winning a SB this year (I think this is reasonable) then why would Poles send a 4th round pick for Allen AND draft a WR at 9? If the intention is to let Allen walk, then spending a 4th round pick on him in a year we aren't winning a SB is pretty wasteful. If the intention is to extend Allen, then why do we need 3 #1 WR's? No one has that - 2 #1's is the play not 3 - there aren't enough footballs to satisfy them all. So it all boils down, as far as I can understand it, to Poles pissed away a 4th rounder for nothing - OR - he isn't drafting a WR at 9. If he planned on taking a WR at 9, wouldn't it have made more sense to keep the 4th round pick and let the top shelf rookie WR play opposite DJ Moore?

I don't see the Keenan Allen acquisition as a path to the Super Bowl. I see it as, and Poles has said as much, putting top-notch pros around Williams to ensure Year 1 success as much as possible. Caleb knowing that if he throws it to a spot, that both of his top weapons will be at that spot. So many times in Chicago, we've seen young QBs fail because we put bad or inexperienced weapons around them that run wrong/bad routes, don't know the playbook, get jammed at the line, etc. You say it very clearly with Cutty until they went and got B-Marsh and while Jeffery was coming of age (don't forget when we brought Cutty in that his WR1 was Devin Hester.)

If Caleb shits the bed in Year 1 because he's surrounded by incompetency, it's going to make coming into Year 2 very difficult.