Looking over our losses this year

For all things Chicago Bears

Moderator: wab

Richie
MVP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 17 times

ATL - Howard drops game-winning TD pass at the pylon. Bears cannot convert with 1st and goal inside of ATL 5 yard line in the final half-minute.

TB - Blowout... 5 turnovers

GB - Blowout... 4 more turnovers (Glennon benched)

MIN - Lose on last second field goal. Howard long TD run called back on a phantom holding call.

NO - Bears march into NO territory on final drive, but Trubisky makes a poor read and fires an INT. Still played the Saints tough in New Orleans, no easy task.

GB - A chance on the final drive. Missed opportunities all game. Probably a game we win, if we just show up and execute. Fox challenge blunder costs Bears a touchdown, in a game they would lose by 7 points.

DET - Lose on last second field goal miss.

PHI - Blowout... worst performance of our season, and for Trub

SF - Lose on last second field goal.

Out of our 9 losses, 6 of them came down to the final possession. 5 of those 6 losses under Trub.

Despite everything that's happened this year, and how ugly it's been at times. You can legitimately say that we're a handful of plays away from being 7-6 or even 8-5. In the playoff mix.

I remember reading an article a couple of years back (wish I could find it) about how one of the strongest correlations with teams who have either A) big turnarounds... or B) big drop-offs. Is the amount of close games played. Very often, for teams who played a lot of tight games, but lost many. It translated to winning a lot of those games the following year. Then, with teams who fell off... visa versa.

I think just an improvement with the staff, will notch us a few of those wins in close games. Then, in games like Baltimore, the right coaching can prevent thoses game from even getting down to the wire.

What's Fox's record in one score games here? Good god. I think I'm going to look that up. It has to be so abysmal, because I swear... outside of a chunk of last season. It seems like most of our losses have been close, and many of them even devastating.

Then, you have the expectation of Trubisky's continued progression. So, before we even start talking about what's necessary to add from a personnel standpoint to improve our win/loss total. We should already be a few steps closer.

This is the most excited I've been for an off-season in a while. Nervous? Absolutely, because we can't screw up this next coaching hire, which is obviously scary... given our recent history. However, despite the doom and gloom attitude that is so often present here, there's cause for cautious optimism. Especially after Trubisky's play yesterday.

What tweaks do you think would have gotten us those few plays we needed, to win some of those games that fell just out of our reach? I think the first two losses was pretty much just QB play. 5 turnovers vs TB (one by Cohen) and 4 vs GB.

The Minnesota loss, to me... was directly correlated with Trevathan's suspension. Once Timu went down, we didn't have another capable backup and all of the sudden Jerrick McKinnon ran all over us. That would not have happened with a healthy Trevathan. I think that had a lot to do with the Detroit and GB losses too. I think the LB (OLB, especially) position, in general needs to be addressed. As our secondary is starting to take shape, and we're doing some really good things up front. We may be that one stud LB away from really taking off in a big way on that side of the ball.

Obviously, on the offensive side... a legitimate outside weapon to make a play down the stretch of a game for Trubisky would have been huge. Improved line play could have helped the ground game in a couple of losses, particularly the GB and SF losses. I don't think the Philly loss was avoidable, no matter what.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 29805
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 1956 times

I've said this all season. I want a coach that can get the Bears from "close" to "closed". I still maintain that the Bears are a WR and a pass rusher away from being a pretty complete team.

Not leading the NFL in players on IR for the second straight year would help too.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

I think an overall passive approach from Fox (I worried about this a while ago) and a lack of attention to detail is ultimately what cost us some of those close games. I see flashes of talent on both sides of the ball so I think there just may be a light at the end of this tunnel in which we find ourselves.

As wab mentioned, we need to find away to stay healthy and let these kids develop.

The next head coaching hire needs to be the perfect guy for Trubisky, and I can only hope that he can assemble the best staff to get the most out of our defense and special teamers.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

Richie
MVP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 17 times

wab wrote:I've said this all season. I want a coach that can get the Bears from "close" to "closed". I still maintain that the Bears are a WR and a pass rusher away from being a pretty complete team.

Not leading the NFL in players on IR for the second straight year would help too.
Yeah, the injury thing is out of hand. We have to be due for a somewhat healthy season, for the love of god.

If this happens again, we have to start looking at the training staff as being somewhat accountable... or something. At the very least, start blaming the front office for bringing in injury prone players.

You can't have success in this league with how many guys we lose to the IR, or for extended periods of time.
User avatar
DaSuperfan
Crafty Veteran
Posts: 996
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:44 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 9 times

What everyone else said. Also, a couple of extra tidbits on the losses:

Against the Vikings, the reason they lost on a last second FG was because Trubisky made an ill-advised throw (Smith baited him) that led to an INT late in the 4th quarter.

In the NO game - you failed to mention that Miller's horrific injury was actually a TD that was inexplicably overturned. That could have changed the complexion of the game into our favor.
Never Die Easy
User avatar
Mikefive
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5189
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:33 pm
Location: Valparaiso, IN, USA
Has thanked: 340 times
Been thanked: 278 times

I'm convinced it's possible. I'm also convinced to wait and see. I find the Bears do worse when I predict they'll win and better when I think they'll lose. So call me a healthy skeptic. :)
Mikefive's theory: The only time you KNOW that a sports team player, coach or management member is being 100% honest is when they're NOT reciting "the company line".

Go back to leather helmets, NFL.
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3625
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 204 times

Nice breakdown (and additions).

It's nice to think that we could be legit close to competing and we're pretty well set up to add pieces, both in the draft and in free agency. Plus looking at the 3 blowouts, Glennon is the reason for 2 and he's gone then the Eagles are (were) a definite contender that this team was never going to beat.

Coaching and pass rush are the big ones for me. Yes receiver needs sorting out but I think just competent players will make a big difference there (not a reason to try for a real #1) whereas getting a good coach and a genuine pass rush threat are more difficult to find.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
GSH
MVP
Posts: 1007
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:50 am
Location: Los Angeles

thats whats been so frustrating about the season as a whole though. We are basically a bunch of sloppy, undisciplined mistakes away from not being basement dwellers. We all know this team is better than the standings show, but thats worthless without a coach bringing the best out of the team.

Hopeful for next year, you just never know with this ownership in place though.
Hematite
Player of the Month
Posts: 399
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:05 pm

Richie wrote:

This is the most excited I've been for an off-season in a while. Nervous? Absolutely, because we can't screw up this next coaching hire, which is obviously scary... given our recent history. However
This right here!!! Reminds me of the saying, "Be careful what you wish for"

Can't get much worse than Fox though right...except for the Trestman hire. But I do have faith in Pace, blind or not!
User avatar
Teddy KGB
Pro Bowler
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:43 am
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 62 times

I've been trying to tell people about how close the Bears are.

With a better coaching staff I really think honestly we are 8 and 8. I don't see us with enough depth of talent to be contending for the playoffs this year, but I absolutely believe the Bears will be in the hunt next year if they get the right coach and have one more draft like the last two.

I think they will get Mitch help. I think if you just Place decent wide receivers around him this could go very well. However I believe the offensive line is very overrated.

I think next year we'll go as far as a new offensive line takes them. I seriously see white hair as being the only long-term mainstay and I see Leno as a valuable backup left tackle and left guard.

If I am the Bears, I go for veteran wide receivers next year and with the first pick of the draft next year I get a left tackle. I move Whitehair to guard, and draft a center and another guard or tackle.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
Teddy KGB
Pro Bowler
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:43 am
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 62 times

G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
I have no doubt Leno is going to be here for a few more years, but his talent level it is that of a quality backup.

The Bears would not be the first team to have locked up an okay left tackle only to draft a stud left tackle when the opportunity presented itself.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
User avatar
Teddy KGB
Pro Bowler
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:43 am
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 62 times

G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
So I was taking a look at the draft prospects coming out, and it is not a very strong year for left tackles.  Mike McGlinchey is the highest rated Prospect and some have him as a right tackle. Key projects as a potential left tackle in the future.

That got me thinking: why not draft him in the first round to replace Massie. He should at the very least be a very good right tackle, and if he shows the ability to transition to left tackle, you can make that move a couple years in.

I would definitely draft McGlinchey in round one, and pick up either Wynn or Bozeman in the third round depending on who you like or who's available.

I would kick Whitehair over to left guard, put Wynn or Bozeman in at Center, Kush coming back from injury at RG until Kyle Long is 100% healthy, and McGlinchey at RT.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

I don't really like burning high draft picks on the offensive line unless it's left tackle. In my mind, you find a driven player that meets your height/weight/arm length needs and hits your athletic numbers and just drill technique into him. You can do that with 3rd and 4th rounders, IMO.

Look at the Patriots' line... left to right: 1st round pick, 3rd, Undrafted, 4th, 5th.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5901
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 1716 times

Teddy KGB wrote:I think they will get Mitch help. I think if you just Place decent wide receivers around him this could go very well. However I believe the offensive line is very overrated.

I think next year we'll go as far as a new offensive line takes them. I seriously see white hair as being the only long-term mainstay and I see Leno as a valuable backup left tackle and left guard.

If I am the Bears, I go for veteran wide receivers next year and with the first pick of the draft next year I get a left tackle. I move Whitehair to guard, and draft a center and another guard or tackle.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
The offensive line has been perhaps my biggest disappointment this season.

We knew the WR group was poor even before Meredith and White went down, Glennon was a stop gap and Trubisky would need time etc., but the line had played well last season despite last minute changes and some injury issues.

I really expected them to gel this year and get even better but it didn't happen. I can't help but wonder how much Dave Magazu's departure as the o-line coach had a negative impact.

However, if you believe Pace is going to completely overhaul the offensive line this off-season then I think you're going to be sorely disappointed.

He just signed Leno to a $38m extension. You don't pay that sort of money for a backup, nor do you put LT at the top of your draft board the very next year. (It's irrelevant anyway, but as for being a backup LG I don't think Leno has ever played there, either in college or for the Bears, so I have no idea what you're basing that assertion on.)

I also have no idea why you'd want to move Whitehair from center and gamble on finding a better option in the draft. Pace spent a third round pick on Grasu and that didn't exactly pan out. Aside from some issues with shotgun snaps (which are hopefully now resolved) Whitehair's played well, has learned how to call NFL protections and should be left alone to continue his development without being shunted around like he was at times earlier this season.

As for the rest of the line, Sitton continues to play at a Pro Bowl level and Long's on a long-term contract. Hopefully the latter will finally get fully healed before the start of next season. Massie's not great and could well be replaced, perhaps with a draft pick, but he's still a hell of a lot better than the dross they sent out at RT prior to his arrival (Kyle Long aside). It was a shame Kush got injured before the season because he played well as a backup guard and can play center. He's under contract for next year and they also spent a draft pick on Morgan so they already have a young guard to develop.

Also, continuity is massively important to the o-line. Adding two or three rookies into the line-up is unlikely to result in a jump in performance and could well have the opposite effect.

For what it's worth, here are the current PFF grades (all freely available, not behind a pay wall) for our starting five for this season and those from last year:

Leno: 81.4 (Above Average), 70.8 (Average)
Sitton: 85.8 (High Quality), 85.5 (High Quality)
Whitehair: 73.2 (Average), 87.2 (High Quality)
Long: 73.0 (Average), 78.1 (Average)
Massie: 70.9 (Average), 69.2 (Below Average)

The idea of spending three draft picks, including our first rounder, on the offensive line makes no sense to me at all. This team has far greater needs at the moment.

On offense I'd put WR1, WR2 and TE1 ahead of a swing OT who can compete with Massie for a starting role and another OG.

On defense I'd put a starting OLB, a CB (if one or other of our current starters isn't re-signed), a quality DE to play opposite Hicks (keeping Unrein as a rotational guy) and probably a second OLB before another offensive lineman.
User avatar
Adipost
MVP
Posts: 1295
Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:54 am

Most NFL games come down to the wire, it’s just that bad teams lose most of them. The Colts and 49ers have 5 games they could have easily won. You can also say that the Bears are lucky they are not 2-11 right now. Hell, Matt Barkley should have won his first 4 starts late last season.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 29805
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 1956 times

G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
Much to my chagrin.
User avatar
Teddy KGB
Pro Bowler
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:43 am
Has thanked: 127 times
Been thanked: 62 times

wab wrote:
G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
Much to my chagrin.
I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a LT. All I am saying. Bears have cap space to burn, so its not like they are hamstrung.
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8411
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Parts Unknown
Has thanked: 909 times
Been thanked: 1277 times

Teddy KGB wrote:
G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
So I was taking a look at the draft prospects coming out, and it is not a very strong year for left tackles.  Mike McGlinchey is the highest rated Prospect and some have him as a right tackle. Key projects as a potential left tackle in the future.

That got me thinking: why not draft him in the first round to replace Massie. He should at the very least be a very good right tackle, and if he shows the ability to transition to left tackle, you can make that move a couple years in.

I would definitely draft McGlinchey in round one, and pick up either Wynn or Bozeman in the third round depending on who you like or who's available.

I would kick Whitehair over to left guard, put Wynn or Bozeman in at Center, Kush coming back from injury at RG until Kyle Long is 100% healthy, and McGlinchey at RT.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
Teams really should be targeting BPA on day 1 of the draft and not focusing on drafting for a specific position. Why pass up a franchise CB or pass rusher simply because we need to move somebody to right tackle. You can sign an FA for that.
Image
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Teddy KGB wrote:
wab wrote:
G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
Much to my chagrin.
I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a LT. All I am saying. Bears have cap space to burn, so its not like they are hamstrung.
Image
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

ysleblanc
MVP
Posts: 1949
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2013 7:07 am

G08 wrote:I don't really like burning high draft picks on the offensive line unless it's left tackle. In my mind, you find a driven player that meets your height/weight/arm length needs and hits your athletic numbers and just drill technique into him. You can do that with 3rd and 4th rounders, IMO.

Look at the Patriots' line... left to right: 1st round pick, 3rd, Undrafted, 4th, 5th.

Agree 100%, not a fan of drafting anybody but a top end LT before the 3rd round. Long was a 1st rounder and he has been very good when healthy, but guys like him often can be developed in the mid rounds.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

Teddy KGB wrote:
wab wrote:
G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
Much to my chagrin.
I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a LT. All I am saying. Bears have cap space to burn, so its not like they are hamstrung.
Image

:thumbsup:
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
Rusty Trombagent
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7336
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:19 am
Location: Maine!
Has thanked: 555 times
Been thanked: 967 times

Yeah, I'll eat my hat if we try and replace leno.
Image
Richie
MVP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 17 times

G08 wrote:
Teddy KGB wrote:
wab wrote:
G08 wrote:Leno's going to be here a few more years, and it will be at left tackle.
Much to my chagrin.
I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a LT. All I am saying. Bears have cap space to burn, so its not like they are hamstrung.
Image

:thumbsup:
Exactly

The Leno hate is kind of silly. There are very few "elite" LT's in the league. What are there? Three? Four? This idea that a better option than Leno is floating around out there, just doesn't hold up. That small handful of elite tackles are clutched onto for dear life by those organizations.

I understand that he isn't perfect, but he's consistently serviceable to above average and he's never.... EVER hurt. That immediately checks him in at around the top ten mark for the position, IMO.

It's a ridiculously tough position, and most fans only notice a offensive lineman when he makes a mistake. This skews their perception of said player.
Last edited by Richie on Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

In terms of average per year Leno ranks 15th in the NFL in compensation.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

Richie
MVP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 17 times

G08 wrote:In terms of average per year Leno ranks 15th in the NFL in compensation.
I would check him in higher than 15th among LT's in the league. So, that's pretty solid.
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3625
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 204 times

G08 wrote:In terms of average per year Leno ranks 15th in the NFL in compensation.
And that's in year one of his contract, he could be outside the top 20 in a couple of years.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
ramentaschen
Assistant Coach
Posts: 684
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 4:29 am
Been thanked: 7 times

I'm a firm believer that you are your record. I don't care how many "close" losses you have. Those games serve to separate the good teams from the bad, and the Bears are a bad team.

I'm sure the 0-16 Lions a few years back had a lot of "close" games too.
Image
User avatar
o-pus #40 in B major
Head Coach
Posts: 2777
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2012 4:27 pm
Location: Earth
Has thanked: 2412 times
Been thanked: 245 times

ramentaschen wrote:I'm a firm believer that you are your record. I don't care how many "close" losses you have. Those games serve to separate the good teams from the bad, and the Bears are a bad team.

I'm sure the 0-16 Lions a few years back had a lot of "close" games too.
affirmative - only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20560
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 758 times

malk wrote:
G08 wrote:In terms of average per year Leno ranks 15th in the NFL in compensation.
And that's in year one of his contract, he could be outside the top 20 in a couple of years.
Leno, 26, is a building block after signing a four-year, $37 million extension before the season, and he’s had better season than most think.

According to PFF, he’s allowed two sacks, three QB hits and 13 hurries on 416 pass-blocking snaps this season. His 18 total pressures are the seventh-fewest allowed among 52 qualified tackles.

The Bears also average more yards on runs to his side than to the right.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

Post Reply