Warren and Poles vs Flus and Getsy

[o-pus #40 in B major]

How do we know what his market is? The "experts" online saying what it is?

Here's an article where numerous GMs were polled on the matter.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/ ... s/3303856/

The general managers in the story, in light of their unanimous responses to trade Fields, also offered their insights into the kind of hypothetical trade package Fields could command for his services.

None of the GMs mentioned a first-round pick in the package. They all mentioned second-round picks. In some cases, an additional third or fourth-round pick was thrown in the mix.

The anonymous - and opaque - nature of this article certainly sheds a lot of light on nothing in particular.

How did they arrive at these particular 7 GMs?

Did they winnow through a larger group?

Or did they only get 7 replies?

Did they poll all 31?

How many did they poll?

I think the author - Ryan Taylor - comes off looking like a real tool.

[Burl]

I actually copied the wrong link here and should have gone to the original, here:

https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-trading- ... 57987.html

But that doesn't really address your criticism/concern about how they selected these specific GMs. It's fair to wonder those things, but unless we just assume the guy is lying and making up quotes, 20+% of GMs opinions is better than just guessing to me.

[RichH55]

I actually copied the wrong link here and should have gone to the original, here:

https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-trading- ... 57987.html

But that doesn't really address your criticism/concern about how they selected these specific GMs. It's fair to wonder those things, but unless we just assume the guy is lying and making up quotes, 20+% of GMs opinions is better than just guessing to me.

No one is really disputing it either. Oddly I might be the high man on what Fields could bring in a trade

[Arkansasbear]

Here's an article where numerous GMs were polled on the matter.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/ ... s/3303856/

The anonymous - and opaque - nature of this article certainly sheds a lot of light on nothing in particular.

How did they arrive at these particular 7 GMs?

Did they winnow through a larger group?

Or did they only get 7 replies?

Did they poll all 31?

How many did they poll?

I think the author - Ryan Taylor - comes off looking like a real tool.

So a few years ago I restored an old 10-speed bike that I would take out on group rides. It was outdated, steal, down tube shifter. But it was a thing of beauty. I decided to sell it and everyone said I wouldn't get much for it. I made a TON on that bike as some guy simply loved it. That's all it takes, one guy or in this case one GM/Team that thinks they can turn Fields into a bigger Lamar Jackson and that team isn't primed to draft a QB so they offer up a first round pick in the 15-20 range (see the rumors on Tampa).

There simply isn't a way to know what his market is.

[Grizzled]

There are those around the league defending Getsy and saying Fields isn’t the guy for his system, that Getsy hasn’t done as badly as many are saying. I say a big wtf to that and why did Flus hire him as OC when the goal all along was determining if Fields was the Bears answer at QB.

[RichH55]

The anonymous - and opaque - nature of this article certainly sheds a lot of light on nothing in particular.

How did they arrive at these particular 7 GMs?

Did they winnow through a larger group?

Or did they only get 7 replies?

Did they poll all 31?

How many did they poll?

I think the author - Ryan Taylor - comes off looking like a real tool.

So a few years ago I restored an old 10-speed bike that I would take out on group rides. It was outdated, steal, down tube shifter. But it was a thing of beauty. I decided to sell it and everyone said I wouldn't get much for it. I made a TON on that bike as some guy simply loved it. That's all it takes, one guy or in this case one GM/Team that thinks they can turn Fields into a bigger Lamar Jackson and that team isn't primed to draft a QB so they offer up a first round pick in the 15-20 range (see the rumors on Tampa).

There simply isn't a way to know what his market is.

Very fair point

Part of the reason why I think it gets to a 1st somehow someway

[dplank]

Ark I thought you were challenging the other side, the made up “two firsts” bit. No way in hell I’d give up two firsts for Lawrence and then have to turn around and pay him. Hard no.

[RichH55]

Ark I thought you were challenging the other side, the made up “two firsts” bit. No way in hell I’d give up two firsts for Lawrence and then have to turn around and pay him. Hard no.

You'd be in the distinct minority - and still wouldn't have to pay full freight on him for 2 more years.(*)

(*) That's also true on Fields - which is why the "He's up for a contract" argument is so baffling

[HisRoyalSweetness]

[malk]

(I don't think it is happening either way, Poles doesn't have the balls).

Not sure I'm following your thought process here. What evidence makes you think he lacks the courage to trade Fields away?

I juat haven't got that impression from Poles. If Fields is decent/pretty good for the next two years I think Poles signs him to a huge (standard for QB) contract, because that's what the league does.

[G08]

Not sure I'm following your thought process here. What evidence makes you think he lacks the courage to trade Fields away?

I juat haven't got that impression from Poles. If Fields is decent/pretty good for the next two years I think Poles signs him to a huge (standard for QB) contract, because that's what the league does.

He shipped Roquan Smith out without any hesitation. If he likes a QB at #1 he'll ship Justin Fields out to the highest bidder.

I think what one has to take into account is what value can be extracted from the #1 pick and how will it build this roster the next few years?

I'm a broken record with this but, watered down, the decision becomes:

Caleb Williams + 2nd round pick (for Justin Fields)

or

Justin Fields + 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st, 2026 1st (depending upon how far down we trade, if we do at all).

That gives you:

2024 - 2 first round picks // 1 second round pick

2025 - 2 first round picks // 2 second round picks

2026 - 2 first round picks

That, ostensibly, is a LOT of cost controlled talent.


Here are the teams who clinched a playoff spot and where their QB was drafted:

BAL - #32
SF - #262
MIA - #5
PHI - #53
DET - #1 (another team)
CLE - #18 (another team)
DAL - #135

[malk]

I juat haven't got that impression from Poles. If Fields is decent/pretty good for the next two years I think Poles signs him to a huge (standard for QB) contract, because that's what the league does.

He shipped Roquan Smith out without any hesitation. If he likes a QB at #1 he'll ship Justin Fields out to the highest bidder.

I think what one has to take into account is what value can be extracted from the #1 pick and how will it build this roster the next few years?

I'm a broken record with this but, watered down, the decision becomes:

Caleb Williams + 2nd round pick (for Justin Fields)

or

Justin Fields + 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st, 2026 1st (depending upon how far down we trade, if we do at all).

That gives you:

2024 - 1 first round pick // 1 second round pick

2025 - 2 first round picks // 2 second round picks

2026 - 2 first round picks

That, ostensibly, is a LOT of cost controlled talent.


Here are the teams who clinched a playoff spot and where their QB was drafted:

BAL - #32
SF - #262
MIA - #5
PHI - #53
DET - #1 (another team)
CLE - #18 (another team)
DAL - #135

The last thing I want is Poles to pick a QB with #1. Nightmare scenario imo. Take the picks, build the team, find a QB later if need be.

Buty point about Poles here is just narrowly on if he keeps Fields and Fields is pretty good for a year. Say top tenish but definitely not top 5. I don't think Poles trades that Fields and I kind of wish he'd be the kind of GM who would.

[G08]

I call this "Getsy in a Graph"

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Eberflus's latest presser is worth a watch. Ignore the title, he covers a lot more than injury updates. He gets asked a lot about Fields and his relationship with him amongst other things.

He also comes across as a lot more relaxed and comfortable now, which is probably due to a combination of having some wins under his belt and not having to deal with those awkward situations with his coaches leaving due to "HR issues" or with the likes of Claypool. I think there's been a tendency to overlook just how much pressure the guy was under during the early part of the season. Pressure comes with being an NFL head coach, but what he faced was at the extreme end and he appears to have weathered that and come out the other side. It's another sign that he's growing into the role.

[The Marshall Plan]

He shipped Roquan Smith out without any hesitation. If he likes a QB at #1 he'll ship Justin Fields out to the highest bidder.

I think what one has to take into account is what value can be extracted from the #1 pick and how will it build this roster the next few years?

I'm a broken record with this but, watered down, the decision becomes:

Caleb Williams + 2nd round pick (for Justin Fields)

or

Justin Fields + 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st, 2026 1st (depending upon how far down we trade, if we do at all).

That gives you:

2024 - 1 first round pick // 1 second round pick

2025 - 2 first round picks // 2 second round picks

2026 - 2 first round picks

That, ostensibly, is a LOT of cost controlled talent.


Here are the teams who clinched a playoff spot and where their QB was drafted:

BAL - #32
SF - #262
MIA - #5
PHI - #53
DET - #1 (another team)
CLE - #18 (another team)
DAL - #135

The last thing I want is Poles to pick a QB with #1. Nightmare scenario imo. Take the picks, build the team, find a QB later if need be.

Buty point about Poles here is just narrowly on if he keeps Fields and Fields is pretty good for a year. Say top tenish but definitely not top 5. I don't think Poles trades that Fields and I kind of wish he'd be the kind of GM who would.

100% agree on the 1.

Whether a person thinks we need to move on from JF1 or not, that 1 pick is worth a star player, two 1s and a 2nd. We would also still have our own 1 which is at 8. It would also help the new QB or JF1 to walk into a situation with an additional high level WR, Bowers maybe, and a much improved DL.

This is a QB heavy draft.

Williams
Maye
Penix
Nix
Ewers
McCarthy

Plenty of ability to trade down, get paid, and draft a QB.

[malk]

Eberflus's latest presser is worth a watch. Ignore the title, he covers a lot more than injury updates. He gets asked a lot about Fields and his relationship with him amongst other things.

He also comes across as a lot more relaxed and comfortable now, which is probably due to a combination of having some wins under his belt and not having to deal with those awkward situations with his coaches leaving due to "HR issues" or with the likes of Claypool. I think there's been a tendency to overlook just how much pressure the guy was under during the early part of the season. Pressure comes with being an NFL head coach, but what he faced was at the extreme end and he appears to have weathered that and come out the other side. It's another sign that he's growing into the role.

Someone posted about how playoff teams currently have a preponderance of offensive minded HCs but have any of them (genuinely asking here) done so with multiple QBs? I kind of like a defensive head coach, must have some flexibility mind, as it is easier to find players for a defensive scheme than a QB for a given offensive scheme.

As it stands, I'm increasingly excited about our defense. Stop the run, generate pass rush, profit. I think that can work with solid rather than elite pass defenders, the elite ones take it over the top (got to resign JJ given the general situation). Swap Jackson for an Amos type then allocate Edmunds' money to another pass Fisher and this defense is pretty perfectly constructed as aix of experience and rookies.

On offence Getsy still isn't showing enough flexibility to scheme specifically for Fields and he might get launched for that but otherwise I can't remember feeling the roster is as close as this. I really, *really* don't want to start a reload with a new QB now. One more season of building (with the playoffs next year a must) then if need be we can bring in a new rookie in about the best situation possible. Trading down for a likely good 2025 1st rounder is the ideal way of hedging for that.

[Grizzled]

Potential '25 QBs will not be the premium guys of this year (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, Nix): Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (although he may declare for '24), Drew Allar, QB, Penn State, Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (he may declare for '24). If the 2 guys declare, it will be an even more bare cupboard for the Bears to retool if they keep Fields and he doesn't do the job.

[LacertineForest]

Potential '25 QBs will not be the premium guys of this year (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, Nix): Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (although he may declare for '24), Drew Allar, QB, Penn State, Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (he may declare for '24). If the 2 guys declare, it will be an even more bare cupboard for the Bears to retool if they keep Fields and he doesn't do the job.

I mean, guys always come out of nowhere and become hot during the season, but this is a concern of mine as well. Not to mention that, if you do wait, you're likely picking much later, meaning it's more likely that you have to bundle one of your premium picks to move up. My guess is that Poles doesn't want to ever use two firsts on a guy.

[G08]

“You can tell how natural (play calling) is for him and, at the same time, how much he enjoys it,” linebacker Jack Sanborn said. “When he’s up and in front of the defense and he’s going through either an opponent’s tape or teaching moments based off another game, you can tell how much he loves the game and how much he loves the defensive side of the game especially.”

The good is starting to outweigh the bad for the Bears.

“If we had had him calling plays since training camp, I feel like we would have peaked a lot sooner,” defensive tackle Justin Jones said.

That last quote is telling... I am wondering if Flus should keep calling the defense next season, similar to what Sean McDermott is doing in Buffalo...

Since Week 5, the Bears rank first in the league in run defense, sixth in total yards, seventh in points per game allowed and fifth in expected points added. They lead the league in interceptions since then.

That's elite, fellas.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I quite like Bo Nix, I think he’d be a late first rounder - so value post trade down.
Isn’t he 23 though, he’s a late bloomer

[dplank]

“You can tell how natural (play calling) is for him and, at the same time, how much he enjoys it,” linebacker Jack Sanborn said. “When he’s up and in front of the defense and he’s going through either an opponent’s tape or teaching moments based off another game, you can tell how much he loves the game and how much he loves the defensive side of the game especially.”

The good is starting to outweigh the bad for the Bears.

“If we had had him calling plays since training camp, I feel like we would have peaked a lot sooner,” defensive tackle Justin Jones said.

That last quote is telling... I am wondering if Flus should keep calling the defense next season, similar to what Sean McDermott is doing in Buffalo...

Since Week 5, the Bears rank first in the league in run defense, sixth in total yards, seventh in points per game allowed and fifth in expected points added. They lead the league in interceptions since then.

That's elite, fellas.

It's one of my biggest worries G08 - I'm in favor of keeping Flus but I want him to keep calling plays on defense if that's the case. Play calling is a feel thing, Flus has it. Advanced scouting, playbook creation are more science-y. Getsy is good at that but lacks the feel in game to adjust once a team has adjusted to him. Flus has that and I don't want to replace it with someone else - as we saw with Williams that can be a total disaster if they lack the feel to do it well. Sweat gets a ton of credit for our defensive turnaround - as he should - but it turnaround began once Flus took over play calling and Sweat provided the extra boost for it all to come together. What's remarkable about this is we still lack a DE2 and several key contributors are rookies, so there's ample room for improvement on something that's already top shelf.

[Grizzled]

Potential '25 QBs will not be the premium guys of this year (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, Nix): Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (although he may declare for '24), Drew Allar, QB, Penn State, Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (he may declare for '24). If the 2 guys declare, it will be an even more bare cupboard for the Bears to retool if they keep Fields and he doesn't do the job.

I mean, guys always come out of nowhere and become hot during the season, but this is a concern of mine as well. Not to mention that, if you do wait, you're likely picking much later, meaning it's more likely that you have to bundle one of your premium picks to move up. My guess is that Poles doesn't want to ever use two firsts on a guy.

I’m generally suspicious of guys who come it of nowhere, play great for a year, and get drafted highly. But then there’s Joe Burrow. Mediocre at Norte Dame, transferred to LSU, greatest season at QB of any college player. Of course, he had 1st round talent at WR but I did fall in love with him and wished the Bears could have snagged him.

[Grizzled]

I think it comes down to the Pecker game. Win and Flus gets a reprieve. Loss and McCaskey wants him gone.

[G08]

I think it comes down to the Pecker game. Win and Flus gets a reprieve. Loss and McCaskey wants him gone.

I locked in a bet with a buddy that Eberflus returns in 2024.

He thinks Flus and Fields are gone, at minimum.

[RichH55]

I mean, guys always come out of nowhere and become hot during the season, but this is a concern of mine as well. Not to mention that, if you do wait, you're likely picking much later, meaning it's more likely that you have to bundle one of your premium picks to move up. My guess is that Poles doesn't want to ever use two firsts on a guy.

I’m generally suspicious of guys who come it of nowhere, play great for a year, and get drafted highly. But then there’s Joe Burrow. Mediocre at Norte Dame, transferred to LSU, greatest season at QB of any college player. Of course, he had 1st round talent at WR but I did fall in love with him and wished the Bears could have snagged him.

I think it was Ohio State not Notre Dame

[thunderspirit]

I think it comes down to the Pecker game. Win and Flus gets a reprieve. Loss and McCaskey wants him gone.

I locked in a bet with a buddy that Eberflus returns in 2024.

He thinks Flus and Fields are gone, at minimum.

I'm willing to match your bet with your buddy, whom I think is in for a rude awakening on Flus' job status.

[Grizzled]

I think it comes down to the Pecker game. Win and Flus gets a reprieve. Loss and McCaskey wants him gone.

I locked in a bet with a buddy that Eberflus returns in 2024.

He thinks Flus and Fields are gone, at minimum.

What stakes?

[G08]

Poles' interview earlier today:

Discussed how he wants this team to have a ground-and-pound element to it, especially with playing outdoors in November and December. (*cough* GREG ROMAN *cough*)

When asked about Justin Fields he said they are going to look at the entire roster holistically and see what they need to do in order to get to where they want to go



I dunno man, if you want to be a ground-and-pound team then why on Earth would you not want a 6'3" 230 lbs QB who runs a 4.4 dash and has set NFL records in that facet of the game? Lean on that while you build up the passing game, etc.

[EricTighe]

The last thing I want is Poles to pick a QB with #1. Nightmare scenario imo. Take the picks, build the team, find a QB later if need be.

Buty point about Poles here is just narrowly on if he keeps Fields and Fields is pretty good for a year. Say top tenish but definitely not top 5. I don't think Poles trades that Fields and I kind of wish he'd be the kind of GM who would.

100% agree on the 1.

Whether a person thinks we need to move on from JF1 or not, that 1 pick is worth a star player, two 1s and a 2nd. We would also still have our own 1 which is at 8. It would also help the new QB or JF1 to walk into a situation with an additional high level WR, Bowers maybe, and a much improved DL.

This is a QB heavy draft.

Williams
Maye
Penix
Nix
Ewers
McCarthy

Plenty of ability to trade down, get paid, and draft a QB.

To be fair so was the 2021 Draft.
No. 1: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (Nobody in this class was watched as closely as the Golden CHild coming out of HighSchool.)
No. 2: Zach Wilson, New York Jets (Forget what he has become. He was highly drafted for a reason)
No. 3: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (They traded up to get him,)
No. 11: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (He was watched almost as much as Trevor coming out of highschool.)
No. 15: Mac Jones, New England Patriots
No. 64: Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No. 66: Kellen Mond, Minnesota Vikings
No. 67: Davis Mills, Houston Texans

You can do hindsight all you like but the reality of it is the class of 2021 was more heralded than this class.

[G08]