Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

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thunderspirit
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm

Moriarty wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:44 am
RichH55 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:19 am


Why?

Is there a College QB you already want to pick #1 in 2022?
People emerge and I don't follow college much, outside of draft issues - but next year's crop seems really underwhelming at the moment.
Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Dustin Crum, and maybe even Zerrick Cooper all say hello.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:33 pm

thunderspirit wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm
Moriarty wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:44 am


People emerge and I don't follow college much, outside of draft issues - but next year's crop seems really underwhelming at the moment.
Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Dustin Crum, and maybe even Zerrick Cooper all say hello.
Jayden Daniels, Kedon Slovis, and Spencer Rattler too (Daniels is gonna be goooood).
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:53 pm

dplank wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:45 am
I'm not going to defend QB Ratings as the end all QB stat and I recognize the flaws in the stat, but it's far more meaningful than wins/losses. And there's a lot of folks that point to wins/losses as a primary QB evaluation tool and it's mind blowingly moronic to me. Just read the Twittersphere, every time a Mitch conversation comes up you'll see someone pop on and point to wins. Kyle Orton had a similar dynamic here, and we saw how good a QB he turned out to be.

My POV is that even if Mitch is one of the better options in the FA QB market, he can't come back here. HIs time here is over, it didn't work, best of luck elsewhere.
They can both be iffy evaluation tools

Do you give no merit to wins/losses though at all? If a team loses 10-7 - Maybe thats a little on the QB?

You get boatraced 38-31....fair enough

What about a 23-20 loss?
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:31 pm

thunderspirit wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm
Moriarty wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:44 am


People emerge and I don't follow college much, outside of draft issues - but next year's crop seems really underwhelming at the moment.
Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Dustin Crum, and maybe even Zerrick Cooper all say hello.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:25 pm

RustyTrubisky wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:31 pm
thunderspirit wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm


Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Dustin Crum, and maybe even Zerrick Cooper all say hello.
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Well played, sir.

:applaud:
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:09 am

I'm a MAC guy, my dad played for Toledo back in the day, and I was more than pissed when Dustin Crum said he was going back to school. He was my 3rd round steal for the Bears. This kid plays hard, has a great arm, and just needs some refinement and he is an NFL starter in my opinion. I like the Ridder kid too but as much as I like Purdy at ISU, he isn't going to be an NFL starter IMO. He just doesn't have the arm or size. Hope I'm wrong because he is a great kid but I just don't see it.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:10 am

Just out of curiosity, is Cam Newton an option for anyone?

He’s probably more talented then most QBs available, he’s got a proven track record, and his teammates seem to like him.

With our defense, WRs, and RBs, I’d be interested to see him here. Signing him would also be cheap....It would enable us to keep all of our picks and continue to build.

Thoughts? He’s only 32 I believe.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:06 am

Hell no to Cam Newton for me...
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:06 am

Quick pass on Newton. His body and skills are gone and not a good decision maker in his career so just a shell now.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:25 am

RichH55 wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:53 pm
dplank wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:45 am
I'm not going to defend QB Ratings as the end all QB stat and I recognize the flaws in the stat, but it's far more meaningful than wins/losses. And there's a lot of folks that point to wins/losses as a primary QB evaluation tool and it's mind blowingly moronic to me. Just read the Twittersphere, every time a Mitch conversation comes up you'll see someone pop on and point to wins. Kyle Orton had a similar dynamic here, and we saw how good a QB he turned out to be.

My POV is that even if Mitch is one of the better options in the FA QB market, he can't come back here. HIs time here is over, it didn't work, best of luck elsewhere.
They can both be iffy evaluation tools

Do you give no merit to wins/losses though at all? If a team loses 10-7 - Maybe thats a little on the QB?

You get boatraced 38-31....fair enough

What about a 23-20 loss?
Yes - agreed, some W/L scoring examples can be informative on their own. Those results will show in the stats as well. I don't think 23-20 tells you much, really. It probably comes down to who made one or two big plays -and that is usually the QB. But it might be the D or ST so it's hard to tell.

Individual games probably don't tell us much. But if you look at the book of work there are some things that I believe are revealing:

For example if you look at Derek Carr's stats, his team rarely if ever has won if he's had a bad game. I think he has like 3 games where his team has won when he's had a bad rating ( in 110). It indicates a strong correlation and his contribution to wins. OTOH if you look at Mitch Trubisky's wins you see 8 of them (not a trivial amount - 28%) he had a mediocre or bad game (QB rating under 85) ... yet still won. That's a weak correlation between the QB and winning. And also then, of Mitch's 22 losses, the offense scored 17 points or less in 14 of them. In 7 of those, the other team scored 20 or less (almost 1/3)... and he couldn't lead the offense to 20 or more.

What does all this tell us? To me it says the team often has won in spite of him. And he often doesn't produce in winnable games where the defense has done their job. In 60 something games total, these are not small numbers.

For the record, I blame Nagy for a lot of them. But like I've been saying these things aren't mutually exclusive, and they can both be bad (they are).
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:43 am

cblaz11 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:10 am
Just out of curiosity, is Cam Newton an option for anyone?

He’s probably more talented then most QBs available, he’s got a proven track record, and his teammates seem to like him.

With our defense, WRs, and RBs, I’d be interested to see him here. Signing him would also be cheap....It would enable us to keep all of our picks and continue to build.

Thoughts? He’s only 32 I believe.
He was never the best decision maker, and now that his physical skills are deteriorating...he's kinda just a guy. You could get by with him for a year, but I don't think he has much left in the tank.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:36 pm

I wanted Cam last year, but he was bad in NE. I don’t know how well anyone could have done there last year though, I dunno. Wouldn’t mind it, unlikely but possible he rediscovers his fire - he seemed disinterested to me.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:19 pm

dplank wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:36 pm
I wanted Cam last year, but he was bad in NE. I don’t know how well anyone could have done there last year though, I dunno. Wouldn’t mind it, unlikely but possible he rediscovers his fire - he seemed disinterested to me.
He did say last season that Chicago was one of his preferred destinations.

IDK. He doesn’t do much for me at this stage of his career.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:26 pm

One note on Cam- it was a quality start to the year

AND he did get Covid and seemed markedly worse after that
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:53 am

yeah it's the weirdest thing. i love cam, i would have welcomed him with open arms last year. I live in patriot's land and was atleast excited to see him playing here. i watched a handful of pats games this past year. Dude (atleast externally) had a great attitude all year and bought in completely. And like, I dont have a fuckin clue what went wrong.

I think saying his physical skills are diminishing is an easy answer that doesnt feel right. I saw him rifle stuff, i saw him plow over dudes. He was throwing to bums all year. Belichick could not draft a wr to save his life and I think that's a hilarious blind spot. He absolutely wasnt the same player after covid.

REGARDLESS, i'm firmly in the "start foles, draft SOMEBODY" camp. no more bandaids from the expired med kit.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:54 am

RustyTrubisky wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:53 am
yeah it's the weirdest thing. i love cam, i would have welcomed him with open arms last year. I live in patriot's land and was atleast excited to see him playing here. i watched a handful of pats games this past year. Dude (atleast externally) had a great attitude all year and bought in completely. And like, I dont have a fuckin clue what went wrong.

I think saying his physical skills are diminishing is an easy answer that doesnt feel right. I saw him rifle stuff, i saw him plow over dudes. He was throwing to bums all year. Belichick could not draft a wr to save his life and I think that's a hilarious blind spot. He absolutely wasnt the same player after covid.

REGARDLESS, i'm firmly in the "start foles, draft SOMEBODY" camp. no more bandaids from the expired med kit.
I absolutely could be wrong, and I did forget about him getting Covid.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:07 am

I've always liked Cam. How would he do with Nagy's offense?
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:14 am

IE wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:07 am
I've always liked Cam. How would he do with Nagy's offense?
It's kinda hard to say. He definitely has the arm to make the throws required.

He's Foles, if Foles could run.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:07 am

The dried out husk of what used to be Cam Newton isn't a very good QB. You guys know he played last year, right?
Let's sign Derrick Rose to play point guard for the Bulls while we're at it.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:32 am

One thing about Cam....Tom Brady had a pretty terrible year his last year in NE, that offense just had no weapons at all and even the GOAT struggled. And it's not like Tom had lost his game or anything, as we saw him toss 40 TD's and lead Tampa to the super bowl the very next year.

So some consideration should be given on Cam's behalf that the situation with that offense was pretty awful.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:05 pm

I mean he only threw for 8 TDs. That number and 10 INTs looks pretty weak in 15 games. But he also rushed for 12 TDs (for 600 yards) and also caught one! It certainly doesn't sound like Cam's athleticism is gone. And his completion % and yardage stats weren't bad. He only threw it 360 times.

There's probably more evidence he's not washed up than evidence he is.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:30 pm

Cam Newton is a hard “no” for me because I want to FIX the problem. I don’t want a new QB in two or three years. I want The Guy.

Newton is 31 and on the downside of his career.

Watson obviously fixes the problem. Like big.

Minshew is only 24(?) and if he takes care of business, with OL help, he also fixes the problem just in a different way.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:08 pm

Oh man - don't get me wrong. Minshew is THE no-brainer for this offseason, and addresses EVERY question (and more questions than any of the projected draft picks).
- Demonstrated ability to put up above-average stats at the NFL level (rookies - even Lawrence - don't have this), even on a tanking team.
- Upside
- Super smart
- Poised
- Accurate
- Good decision maker (protects the ball, at least)
- Preservation of draft capital
- Astonishingly low cap hit
- Ability to rebuild the Oline, WR, and some D roles
- Low risk / high floor is getting a long term quality backup and maybe even future trade bait
- Young
- The kind of character Chicago will embrace, like Jimmy Mac

I wouldn't even consider discussing Newton if I didn't think he could get the Bears to the playoffs (with Foles backing). For tanking, I'm only interested in Foles & Fitz.

I'm all-in on Minshew now over all other options. But then we have Pace and even worse Nagy.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:48 pm

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:30 pm
Cam Newton is a hard “no” for me because I want to FIX the problem. I don’t want a new QB in two or three years. I want The Guy.

Newton is 31 and on the downside of his career.

Watson obviously fixes the problem. Like big.

Minshew is only 24(?) and if he takes care of business, with OL help, he also fixes the problem just in a different way.
I'm 100% with you on Watson, he's simply a great player and would solve our QB problem instantly. And no, I don't buy the whole "you won't be able to build around him" argument, even if the cost is 3 first round picks and a couple players. You could add up the value for every first round pick we've taken over the last 10 years and it still wouldn't be equal to the value of Watson. Or Russell Wilson. Or, to a slightly lesser degree, Dak Prescott.

If I'm Pace, I'm thinking legacy here. Like, I can be THE GUY who FINALLY solves the QB quandary in Chicago! He'd be a legend. It would require bold action and huge cahones. The nahsayers will come out for sure, but, frankly, fuck them.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:08 pm

dplank wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:48 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:30 pm
Cam Newton is a hard “no” for me because I want to FIX the problem. I don’t want a new QB in two or three years. I want The Guy.

Newton is 31 and on the downside of his career.

Watson obviously fixes the problem. Like big.

Minshew is only 24(?) and if he takes care of business, with OL help, he also fixes the problem just in a different way.
I'm 100% with you on Watson, he's simply a great player and would solve our QB problem instantly. And no, I don't buy the whole "you won't be able to build around him" argument, even if the cost is 3 first round picks and a couple players. You could add up the value for every first round pick we've taken over the last 10 years and it still wouldn't be equal to the value of Watson. Or Russell Wilson. Or, to a slightly lesser degree, Dak Prescott.

If I'm Pace, I'm thinking legacy here. Like, I can be THE GUY who FINALLY solves the QB quandary in Chicago! He'd be a legend. It would require bold action and huge cahones. The nahsayers will come out for sure, but, frankly, fuck them.
I don't disagree at all. I'm just not sure the Texans would be interested in anything the Bears can offer.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:14 pm

Yeah, when I say I'm all in on Minshew it is because I don't consider Watson a real possibility. Especially given it is Pace.

I didn't think Cutler would happen either. But Watson... would be like twice as a big a deal.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:10 pm

dplank wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:48 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:30 pm
Cam Newton is a hard “no” for me because I want to FIX the problem. I don’t want a new QB in two or three years. I want The Guy.

Newton is 31 and on the downside of his career.

Watson obviously fixes the problem. Like big.

Minshew is only 24(?) and if he takes care of business, with OL help, he also fixes the problem just in a different way.
I'm 100% with you on Watson, he's simply a great player and would solve our QB problem instantly. And no, I don't buy the whole "you won't be able to build around him" argument, even if the cost is 3 first round picks and a couple players. You could add up the value for every first round pick we've taken over the last 10 years and it still wouldn't be equal to the value of Watson. Or Russell Wilson. Or, to a slightly lesser degree, Dak Prescott.

If I'm Pace, I'm thinking legacy here. Like, I can be THE GUY who FINALLY solves the QB quandary in Chicago! He'd be a legend. It would require bold action and huge cahones. The nahsayers will come out for sure, but, frankly, fuck them.
Watson can be built around. If the cost is three 1sts and Roquan we could totally do it. Build the OL with 2nd and 3rd round picks.

FAs would also love to come here and play with him.

A prime age future HOF QB covers a lot of warts. Ever heard the phrase, “Sales floats on top of shit.”? That’s a guy like Watson. He makes the WRs better, the RB better, the OL better. Opposing offenses change their game plan to keep him off the field. That makes the defense better.

Let’s be honest. Franchise QBs are a protected class. Watson is worth 30 yards of penalties at a minimum for field position.

Watson might actually save Pace’s job. Nagy’s too.

Regarding the opportunity cost, you’re exactly right. How many first rounders just bust out?

He’d be the face of the Bears and Chicago sports for a decade. And if he wins a Super Bowl here there will be a statue of him just like Jordan. He’s that big of a deal. These opportunities only come around once every blue moon. If there’s even a fool’s hope of getting him Pace better call the Texans every damn day until they say yes.

Figure it out Pace.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:15 pm

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:10 pm
dplank wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:48 pm


I'm 100% with you on Watson, he's simply a great player and would solve our QB problem instantly. And no, I don't buy the whole "you won't be able to build around him" argument, even if the cost is 3 first round picks and a couple players. You could add up the value for every first round pick we've taken over the last 10 years and it still wouldn't be equal to the value of Watson. Or Russell Wilson. Or, to a slightly lesser degree, Dak Prescott.

If I'm Pace, I'm thinking legacy here. Like, I can be THE GUY who FINALLY solves the QB quandary in Chicago! He'd be a legend. It would require bold action and huge cahones. The nahsayers will come out for sure, but, frankly, fuck them.
Watson can be built around. If the cost is three 1sts and Roquan we could totally do it. Build the OL with 2nd and 3rd round picks.

FAs would also love to come here and play with him.

A prime age future HOF QB covers a lot of warts. Ever heard the phrase, “Sales floats on top of shit.”? That’s a guy like Watson. He makes the WRs better, the RB better, the OL better. The whole effing thing.

Watson might actually save Pace’s job. Nagy’s too.

Regarding the opportunity cost, you’re exactly right. How many first rounders just bust out?

He’d be the face of the Bears and Chicago sports for a decade. And if he wins a Super Bowl here there will be a statue of him just like Jordan. He’s that big of a deal. These opportunities only come around once every blue moon. If there’s even a fool’s hope of getting him Pace better call the Texans every damn day until they say yes.

Figure it out Pace.
The thing I think a lot of people miss in this conversation is that we don't have to solve everything in one off season if we got Watson now. First, Watson can cover up for a lot of other issues on your team (not too many obviously, he couldn't carry the Texans to a winning record by himself last year so there are limits here). But if we got Watson, at his age, we conceivably have a 12 year window with elite QB play in Chicago. So yea, maybe we can't solve everything this first offseason, but there will be a lot of winning opportunities in that span of time and we'd have the one element that everyone agrees is a must have to win a super bowl - a top notch QB. This has eluded us for a century now, so let's not pretend we can just draft one and keep all those assets - we have proven we can't! Or, at best, it's a longshot that we after all these years get it right! IMO we have to buy our way out of this mess.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:27 pm

dplank wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:15 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:10 pm


Watson can be built around. If the cost is three 1sts and Roquan we could totally do it. Build the OL with 2nd and 3rd round picks.

FAs would also love to come here and play with him.

A prime age future HOF QB covers a lot of warts. Ever heard the phrase, “Sales floats on top of shit.”? That’s a guy like Watson. He makes the WRs better, the RB better, the OL better. The whole effing thing.

Watson might actually save Pace’s job. Nagy’s too.

Regarding the opportunity cost, you’re exactly right. How many first rounders just bust out?

He’d be the face of the Bears and Chicago sports for a decade. And if he wins a Super Bowl here there will be a statue of him just like Jordan. He’s that big of a deal. These opportunities only come around once every blue moon. If there’s even a fool’s hope of getting him Pace better call the Texans every damn day until they say yes.

Figure it out Pace.
The thing I think a lot of people miss in this conversation is that we don't have to solve everything in one off season if we got Watson now. First, Watson can cover up for a lot of other issues on your team (not too many obviously, he couldn't carry the Texans to a winning record by himself last year so there are limits here). But if we got Watson, at his age, we conceivably have a 12 year window with elite QB play in Chicago. So yea, maybe we can't solve everything this first offseason, but there will be a lot of winning opportunities in that span of time and we'd have the one element that everyone agrees is a must have to win a super bowl - a top notch QB. This has eluded us for a century now, so let's not pretend we can just draft one and keep all those assets - we have proven we can't! Or, at best, it's a longshot that we after all these years get it right! IMO we have to buy our way out of this mess.
Exactly. We’ve got him for 12 years.

And one more point.

For those blinking at the price. How much does it cost to find a franchise QB at his level in the draft? A shit ton. Because even if you have the #1 pick and Lawrence or somebody like Luck is there, there are no guarantees.

Watson is a proven commodity. Is that worth an incremental 2 first rounders and a stud ILB? Hell yeah it is.
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Re: Update: Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:19 am

dplank wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:48 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:30 pm
Cam Newton is a hard “no” for me because I want to FIX the problem. I don’t want a new QB in two or three years. I want The Guy.

Newton is 31 and on the downside of his career.

Watson obviously fixes the problem. Like big.

Minshew is only 24(?) and if he takes care of business, with OL help, he also fixes the problem just in a different way.
I'm 100% with you on Watson, he's simply a great player and would solve our QB problem instantly. And no, I don't buy the whole "you won't be able to build around him" argument, even if the cost is 3 first round picks and a couple players. You could add up the value for every first round pick we've taken over the last 10 years and it still wouldn't be equal to the value of Watson.

He has a better WR group in Texas and a better group of Tackles than the Bears last year


Putting aside Wins/Losses even in close games

The Texans were not Top 15 in Points Scored last year.....Up until like Week 14-15 they actually had less Points than the Bears

So even if you are in the camp that Watson is great (I clearly am Not) - If you are wondering how could it go wrong when we just have No Cap, Not much offensive talent AND deal 3 High Picks?

You don't exactly have to look too hard

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