Football Outsiders - some Titans at Bears Analysis

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Nice article from Football Outsiders re: Titans at Bears

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkth ... mmon-bonds
Common Bonds
The undefeated Titans and the 5-3 Bears have a lot in common. No one expected either team to be doing this well at the season's midpoint. Both teams are winning with journeyman quarterbacks and anonymous wide receivers. Each team's breakout star is a rookie running back, but their big names are concentrated on the defensive side of the ball. When explaining each team's success, analysts use words like "discipline" and "fundamentals." Great terms, but a little vague. The Titans and Bears are winning because they sweat the details, and the best way to understand their success is to watch lots and lots of film. Between Phillies parades and CNN marathons, I sat down to take a long look at what these two surprising contenders do well.

Figure 1: Titans Stretch Play
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Both teams block the stretch run very well. The most important blocks on a typical stretch run occur on the back side of the play. Figure 1 shows a typical Titans stretch, executed with two tight ends to the strong side. At the snap, the blockers "bucket step" to the right, pulling the defensive line with them. In this example, the defense is showing a five-man front and an eight-man box, a typical strategy against a run-oriented offense in a two-tight end set. Left guard Ken Amato chips the nose tackle so center Kevin Mawae can control him, then climbs out to the second level and cut-blocks the weakside linebacker. Left tackle Michael Roos stands up the right end and keeps him from flowing with the play. That creates a backside seal, allowing Chris Johnson or LenDale White to execute a designed cutback.

The stretch you see is a basic football play, but the Titans' execution makes it very effective. Mawae is still quick and strong enough to control his defender without help, so Amano or right guard Jake Scott can get to the second level quickly. Johnson is fast enough to beat an unblocked middle linebacker through the hole. The Titans receivers are good blockers, so cornerbacks have a hard time crashing the back side of the play.

The Bears have similar personnel strengths, including a great veteran center, solid blocking receivers, and rookie Matt Forte, who is surprisingly patient when setting up these backdoor plays. Proper execution allows both teams to run effectively against stacked fronts.

Both teams defend the stretch run very well. In Figure 2, the offense is running the same stretch-cutback play we saw in Figure 1. This time, though, proper execution and discipline by the defense thwarts the run. There's nothing strategically unique in Figure 2, but the defenders in red play their roles perfectly. The defensive end doesn't allow the left tackle to control him; instead, he engages the block, flows along the line, and constricts the cutback lane. It's a tricky assignment, because the end must not flow too far and get washed out (creating a huge hole to his right), but he can't get stood up, either.

Figure 2: Defending the Stretch
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The weakside linebacker defeats the cut block by protecting his legs and knifing past the guard. Again, he must make sure he doesn't stray too far from his gap assignment while avoiding the block. With both defenders in position to make a tackle, the running back has little chance of making a positive play.

Stretch runs are very common, and good defenses must be able to stop them. The Titans and Bears are two of the best teams in the league at stopping the play (the Bucs are also great at it). Veteran linebackers Lance Briggs (Bears) and David Thornton (Titans) know how to play the weak side, and they win more than their share of battles against offensive linemen. Defensive ends like Alex Brown in Chicago and Kyle Vanden Bosch in Tennessee rarely allow themselves to be taken too far upfield and can shed blockers against the run. Vanden Bosch has been injured, but Jacob Ford has been solid in relief, and Albert Haynesworth slides out to defensive end at times.

Both teams get both tight ends involved. The Titans throw to Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler a lot, usually on typical tight end patterns: crossing routes, waggles, quick hitches. The Bears are much more creative at getting the ball to Desmond Clark and (more importantly) Greg Olsen. Olsen has been getting the star treatment in the Bears offense, lining up as a wide receiver to catch slants, motioning out of the backfield, and running the deep routes we usually associate with players like Antonio Gates.

Figure 3 shows a deep pass that the Bears used against the Vikings. I diagrammed "Texas" route combinations a few weeks ago, and this is a variation on that type of play. Clark runs the angle route, starting toward the sideline before snapping back to the middle of the field. Olsen runs up the seam. The two wide receivers attack the deep sidelines. The Bears receivers aren't great, but they are fast, drawing safety attention as they streak up the field. Kyle Orton has a simple read against the Vikings Tampa-2 offense: Throw to Clark if the middle linebacker gets deep quickly, throw to Olsen if the middle linebacker is slow to drop. On this play, the middle linebacker got deep but never got good position against Olsen, so Orton completed a seamer over the middle.

Figure 3: Bears Deep TE Route Combination
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There's nothing wrong with featuring the tight end, as long as he can get the job done. Both the Titans and Bears can deploy two-tight end sets without limiting the offense.

There's more. Both teams penetrate very quickly on the defensive line. It isn't unusual to see two defenders in the backfield on a handoff. Once again, discipline is key: These aren't out-of-control pass rushers getting shoved 15 yards wide of a play. They are aggressive, under-control defenders who force running backs to get back to the line of scrimmage.

Both teams excel in blitz pickup. They use a lot of six-man protection schemes, and they emphasize pass protection by using fullbacks as blockers on downs when other teams might bring a fourth wideout off the bench.

Most importantly, both teams play to their strengths. DVOA shows that the Titans (19th) and Bears (15th) have serviceable passing games. That's because they play within themselves, using short passes and play action to complement lots and lots of running. That seems obvious, but there are some teams built for running-and-defense that have an odd habit of trying to pass 35 times per game (the Vikings, for instance). The Bears and Titans know they have to win 19-16 games to survive, and they manage games with that in mind.

The Pick: Call it paralysis by analysis, but I have no read on this game. The Bears should stymie the Titans running game, and despite all of the Rex Grossman jokes you've read here over the years, he's a pretty good option off the bench. The Bears are getting three, but I like their chances of winning outright.
2023 Chicago Bears... emerging from a long hibernation, and hungry!
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