The Season is Here! - Predict the Bears Record

[Mikefive]

We now have a nearly complete idea about the Bears roster entering the regular season. And now we have Kahlil Mack. Predict the Bears regular season record and post why if you like. It'll be fun to review this after the season.

[Mikefive]

In the similar spring and summer polls like this, I said 7 wins. Yesterday, I was planning on making this thread and very happy to say 7 wins again for all the same reasons:

- Brand new coach in his first year coaching
- Calling plays which he did for only a handful of games previously
- Young QB with an entirely new--and more complicated--offense in year 2
- Almost completely new receiving corps, so little to no cohesion
- Good defense that needs another pass rusher

And then Kahlil Mack happened. What is the effect of adding arguably the game's best pass rusher? Huge for that defense. HUGE. I'm not sure we're the Trent Dilfer Ravens, but we're something approaching that. All the change on offense with an inexperienced coach still scares me. But Jeez. We should be able to win 9 games with that defense almost alone. So I upped my guess to 9, although I imagine I may be the most conservative voter. Mack is THAT good.

This year is going to be much more fun now. And 2019... OMG.

[UOK]

11-5. I think the Mack acquisition and Nagy coaching style put them into the playoffs.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

10-6. Until today I was thinking 8-8 would be the best case scenario, but Mack turns the defense from over-rated to top-notch.

My worries are now centered around an inexperienced QB and an average Oline.

I don't know if that will be enough to make the playoffs, but that's the new goal.

[GSH]

10 wins, i think we come second in the division over both green bay and detroit.

Green bay dont have any linebackers i think know how to spell football and WR's seem to suck, Detroit i feel for some reason just have a bad season, again on defense.

I dont think at this stage we have minnesota running scared and they are a strong cohesive team on all fronts, so im comfortable taking 2nd in division and wildcard playoff birth, where we bury someone.

We then go on to atlanta and win the superbowl off the back of a robinson 24 yd td in overtime.

[malagabears]

I now am looking at 10-6 with a real shot at 11-5 and winning the division. Our D just got better and a hell of a lot scarier for opposing offenses.

[Moriarty]

Yesterday, I was planning on making this thread and very happy to say 7 wins again for all the same reasons:
- Brand new coach in his first year coaching
- Calling plays which he did for only a handful of games previously
- Young QB with an entirely new--and more complicated--offense in year 2
- Almost completely new receiving corps, so little to no cohesion
- Good defense that needs another pass rusher

And then Kahlil Mack happened. What is the effect of adding arguably the game's best pass rusher?

Entirely agree.
Before this, the Bears line was a dead-on 6.5. After this, it should probably climb to 8-8.5

And 2019... OMG.

That's my thought, too - for entirely different reasons. I'll make a thread, eventually.

[malk]

12-4.

Nagy is going to get how to do just enough. Our offensive line will end up being pretty solid despite perennial concerns, at least two of the promising talents at receiver step up and Howard will remain an excellent safety blanket.

On defence, Mack and Hicks taking on, and beating, double teams is transformative. Jackson is going to look very special, feasting off forced throws. Healthy, this could be the best defence in football. With knocks to Floyd, Goldman, Amukamara and Trevathan it still stays top five.

Colour me excited!

[KOP_Snake]

I think the team is better than last year, but not leaps and bounds. And lets face it, a few key injuries will probably happen. 7 wins.

[wab]

I think Mack makes the Bears two wins better than a week ago. 10-6 is a safe bet I think.

[Hiphopopotamos]

10-6 is what I’m feeling.

I think they have a top 3 defense and an offense in the low teens.

They’re going to fuck some people up we don’t expect, and also lose a couple of games they shouldn’t.

[Z Bear]

11-5

The defense was top 10 last year and the only changes are RRH/Bullard/Nichols for Unrein (wash), Roquan Smith for Jerrell Freeman (wash to improvement), and whoever we trotted out opposite Floyd for Mack (vast improvement). No players are past their prime and the system is the same. The depth is now better and they have the same guy calling the plays. Throw in the fact the the Bears now appear to have a competent NFL offense that will sway the time of possession battle and the D should be top 5 in yards and points allowed.

Pace built his team and got his coach. We are married to it for the next 3 years so this season is a little scary. No draft capital and not much cap room for the next two off seasons. If we do not see much improvement this year we will be starting over in 3 years. However, if they do as I expected the next 3 years should be fun!

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I wanted to go full meatball and say 11-5 with the addition of Mack. I said 8-8 before. But I think Mack has a two game impact. 10-6, 4-2 in the division (sweep the Lions). Wildcard.


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[BR0D1E86]

I think the team is better than last year, but not leaps and bounds. And lets face it, a few key injuries will probably happen. 7 wins.

I’m having trouble shaking the feeling that they’re not just better, but substantially better. They went from Tre McBride, Tanner Gentry and Sims as their primary receivers in an offense designed by John Fox to some pretty impressive skill position players and an innovative scheme. Mack should be a huge difference to what was already a good defense.

I seriously ran through an entire series of games last year, and Trubisky threw something like 75-80% of his passes on 3rd and 9 or more after two straight runs up the middle. And that to guys signed off of the practice squad. On top of that, Howard was ridiculous out of the shotgun as a rookie, at about double the yards per carry as under center. So we go to Trubisky at qb, who’s easily more comfortable in the shotgun, and we operated out of the shotgun less than half as much as the year before.

It was honestly like our already undertalented offense was designed to directly highlight the weaknesses of our players. It was asinine.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Here is the schedule;

@Green Bay L - 24-17 - I think its a new offense, and some D players with little exp in the scheme.
Seattle W - 31-21 - Seattle isn't the force they used to be, and their OL sucks. Mack feasts.
@Arizona L - 17-14 - AZ is a solid team that had a bad year last year.
Tampa Bay W - 24 - 10 Bucs are still bad. Winston is regressing.
Bye
@Miami W - 35 - 14 Off the bye, against a mediocre team. We finally see what a 'bye' prep looks like.
New England L - 27 - 24 Brady picks apart a young secondary. Not as bad as last time.
NY Jets W - 27 - 20 Jets still have no idea what their doing at QB. Darnold is not ready.
@Buffalo W - 28 - 13 Buffalo is a mess. Nuff said. Josh Allen is still raw.
Detroit W - 31 - 14 Lions play better indoors. Their OL sucks.
Minnesota L - 17 - 14 Defensive gem. Both teams get after it.
@Detroit W - 24 - 21 Late take away, with a 49 yd FG seals the deal.
@NY Giants L - 28 - 13 Saquon Barkley has a good game. Bears slump.
LA Rams L - 34 - 17 Bears are improving. But they aren't Rams good yet.
Green Bay W - 27 - 20 Bears Offense starts clicking. Looking strong. Mack gets to Rogers a couple of times.
@San Fran W - 31 - 14 Bears finish strong. Sherman looks done. Garoppolo gets picked twice.
@Minnesota L - 28 - 24 Bears lose their last game to the NFCN champions.

10-6 Bears secure a Wild Card.

[malagabears]

Here is the schedule;

@Green Bay L - 24-17 - I think its a new offense, and some D players with little exp in the scheme.
Seattle W - 31-21 - Seattle isn't the force they used to be, and their OL sucks. Mack feasts.
@Arizona L - 17-14 - AZ is a solid team that had a bad year last year.
Tampa Bay W - 24 - 10 Bucs are still bad. Winston is regressing.
Bye
@Miami W - 35 - 14 Off the bye, against a mediocre team. We finally see what a 'bye' prep looks like.
New England L - 27 - 24 Brady picks apart a young secondary. Not as bad as last time.
NY Jets W - 27 - 20 Jets still have no idea what their doing at QB. Darnold is not ready.
@Buffalo W - 28 - 13 Buffalo is a mess. Nuff said. Josh Allen is still raw.
Detroit W - 31 - 14 Lions play better indoors. Their OL sucks.
Minnesota L - 17 - 14 Defensive gem. Both teams get after it.
@Detroit W - 24 - 21 Late take away, with a 49 yd FG seals the deal.
@NY Giants L - 28 - 13 Saquon Barkley has a good game. Bears slump.
LA Rams L - 34 - 17 Bears are improving. But they aren't Rams good yet.
Green Bay W - 27 - 20 Bears Offense starts clicking. Looking strong. Mack gets to Rogers a couple of times.
@San Fran W - 31 - 14 Bears finish strong. Sherman looks done. Garoppolo gets picked twice.
@Minnesota L - 28 - 24 Bears lose their last game to the NFCN champions.

10-6 Bears secure a Wild Card.

I am going out on a limb and saying we take one of the Vikings games and will play better against NE than expected. I think with a lot of luck 11-5 is within reach but not sure about division title yet. We have to see how dominant the D really becomes with Mack. I think the opener at GB will be really tough especially with Smith and Mack missing a lot of ti e with the D. Mack really could not help it.

[malk]

@Green Bay W. Nagy keeps some cards up his sleeve for the opener and they, along with some suffocating D, are enough to get us over the line. Excitement reaches fever pitch!
Seattle W. Another good defensive performance gets us through as the offence is still finding its feet a little.
@Arizona W. Bradford can't overcome our pass rush which remains hearty and healthy. The offence once again does enough despite a long day for Jordan Howard.
Tampa Bay W. The offence gets in on the act in a blowout.
Bye
@Miami W. Not as comprehensive as the Tampa win but a fairly convincing game.
New England L. The 5-0 Bears are talked up as Superb Owl contenders, pretty much just to talk up NE and Brady. We keep it close but after the loss are still dismissed as pretenders.
NY Jets W. Another convincing win against a rebuilding team to get back on track.
@Buffalo W. Rinse repeat of the previous week.
Detroit W. Detroit are going to be bad this year, just a hunch.
Minnesota L. Billed as a NFCN decider, we take a heartbreaking loss but...
@Detroit W. We get their number in game one and run with it here.
@NY Giants W. We get revenge for the sack fest by taking it out on a spent Eli Manning.
LA Rams L. Another loss to pump the brakes a bit. Our depth is starting to get tested after a few injuries.
Green Bay W. A sweep of the Packers? Yes please.
@San Fran W. The Garoppolo hype train has left the station by this point and our offence can overcome their defence.
@Minnesota L. A decider for division title leads to a loss but making the playoffs is a hell of a consolation prize.

Gotta love some preseason meatball.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

@Green Bay W. Nagy keeps some cards up his sleeve for the opener and they, along with some suffocating D, are enough to get us over the line. Excitement reaches fever pitch!
Seattle W. Another good defensive performance gets us through as the offence is still finding its feet a little.
@Arizona W. Bradford can't overcome our pass rush which remains hearty and healthy. The offence once again does enough despite a long day for Jordan Howard.
Tampa Bay W. The offence gets in on the act in a blowout.
Bye
@Miami W. Not as comprehensive as the Tampa win but a fairly convincing game.
New England L. The 5-0 Bears are talked up as Superb Owl contenders, pretty much just to talk up NE and Brady. We keep it close but after the loss are still dismissed as pretenders.
NY Jets W. Another convincing win against a rebuilding team to get back on track.
@Buffalo W. Rinse repeat of the previous week.
Detroit W. Detroit are going to be bad this year, just a hunch.
Minnesota L. Billed as a NFCN decider, we take a heartbreaking loss but...
@Detroit W. We get their number in game one and run with it here.
@NY Giants W. We get revenge for the sack fest by taking it out on a spent Eli Manning.
LA Rams L. Another loss to pump the brakes a bit. Our depth is starting to get tested after a few injuries.
Green Bay W. A sweep of the Packers? Yes please.
@San Fran W. The Garoppolo hype train has left the station by this point and our offence can overcome their defence.
@Minnesota L. A decider for division title leads to a loss but making the playoffs is a hell of a consolation prize.

Gotta love some preseason meatball.

12-4? This town would go nuts.

Chicago would begin clearing space for Nagy’s statue if he could pull off a turn around like that.


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[malk]

12-4? This town would go nuts.

Chicago would begin clearing space for Nagy’s statue if he could pull off a turn around like that.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's part meatball, part not seeing that many terrifying teams on the schedule and part thinking we could actually be very good. I mean, we better be pretty good as we won't be able to add that much talent for the next few years!

On defence the only major question marks are Bullard/RRH and Kwiatkoski/Smith. Plus, as ever, health. But when I break down what we've actually got there:

Mack. DPOY potential at the most important spot.
Hicks and Trevathan. Fringe pro bowl.
Goldman, Fuller, Amos. Solid starters with pro bowl potential.
Amukamara. Solid starter.
Floyd flashing potential but an injury worry. Shouldn't get double teams in 2018.
Jackson coming off a very promising rookie year.
Kwiatkoski showed some promise, Smith is exciting and seems perfect for the scheme.
Bullard/RRH is the only spot that's not at a solid starter level.

I don't see any obvious weak spots to attack and there are genuine difference makers in Mack and Hicks. I'm also insanely excited to see what Floyd does with Mack on the other side and what Fuller and Jackson do with a proper pass rush!

Last year we held the opposition to under 21 points in 8 games.
We only allowed 24 or more on five occasions.

I think we're better this year and up that 20 or less number to 9/10. We also only allow teams to score 24 or more 4 time.

I think the offence will be good enough to score 23/24 pretty consistently (2 TDs, 3 FG or 3 TDs, 1 FG). So to get to 12-4 we'll need the defence to really prove its mettle in some of the games against GB, Min, LA, NE, SF and for Trubisky to lead the team to 30 or more when the D can't.

My guess is that we score 30 or more 3 times but only win one of those but the defence can stifle those high powered offences to low 20s in a few more.

[Knuckles]

11 wins... go big or go home!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Slathering that kool aid all over right now drinking the bath water.

[LacertineForest]

I'm going 9-7. 3-3 in the division and 6-4 elsewhere. Division is tough - if they can win 4+ in the division, I think we're looking at a playoff team for sure. At 9-7, it would be a challenge to make the playoffs considering how many good teams there are in the NFC.

[Mikefive]

Median = 10
Average = 9.8

[G08]

So many unknowns right now that I can't predict more than 9 wins.

If the offense takes off and Khalil Mack does what we all hope he will do, I can see 11-12 wins.

If not? I believe 7 or 8 is our floor.

[Boris13c]

I say 10-6 with a chance for more, and yes they will make the playoffs

[Mikefive]

Here's a further prediction... Mitch Trubisky is going to look pretty unspectacular for the first half of the season. ARob won't play like the 1400 yard guy we spent big bucks on. The receivers including the TE group will be alright. But not game changing. Jordan Howard will be Jordan Howard. But when we need the passing game to click, it'll be rather inconsistent. There will be too many interceptions and the questions will grow about Mitch and his ability to be a quality NFL QB. Comparisons to Blake Bortles will start spilling out.

That said, the defense will keep us in games, which will allow Trubisky will follow orders and not try to do too much, although more often than our comfort level allows, he will and enough bad mistakes will happen to create some nerve rattling.

By thanksgiving-ish, our record and season up to that point won't have us looking like a playoff team even if we're nibbling around the edges and still have a mathematical chance. But by then AR12 will be rolling. White will be frustrated he's not getting the ball more and be digging deep to carve out openings with his routes. Miller won't be a rookie any more. And Burton (Trey, not Michael) will be the go to guy on 3rd and 6. Biscuit will still make mistakes, but the percentage will dip as experience starts teaching him. We will hurt a team or two in December and play like a playoff team, even if we are on the outside looking in.

2018 will be a tease. Mitch needs more reps. He just does. Not enough games or experience yet. But by the end of his 3rd TC, he will know how to reduce his errors and have enough familiarity with the offense and his targets to be effective. And with this defense, they'll win 11 games next year. Or more. Happy January 2020.

[HurricaneBear]

13-3. I was debating between 10-6 and 9-7 before the Mack trade. Now is the time for optimism and positivity. Bears D finishes top 3 with Mack just missing out on DPOY, Roquan winning DROY, and Hicks, Jackson and at least 1 more defender making the Pro Bowl. Trubisky stays below 10int and breaks 20td. Howard gets an All Pro nod and is in the running for the rushing title. Nagy wins Coach of the year and Pace executive. A humbling playoff exit pushes this team to even greater heights and a Super Bowl win the following season.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

13-3. I was debating between 10-6 and 9-7 before the Mack trade. Now is the time for optimism and positivity. Bears D finishes top 3 with Mack just missing out on DPOY, Roquan winning DROY, and Hicks, Jackson and at least 1 more defender making the Pro Bowl. Trubisky stays below 10int and breaks 20td. Howard gets an All Pro nod and is in the running for the rushing title. Nagy wins Coach of the year and Pace executive. A humbling playoff exit pushes this team to even greater heights and a Super Bowl win the following season.

As I said in a different thread. If Biscuits can be a top 15 QB. The Bears are going to win a lot of games. That's up to Nagy, and setting Mitch up for success with his playcalling.

[ramentaschen]

11-5, and we make the playoffs

who voted 7???

[WagonForce]

13-3. I was debating between 10-6 and 9-7 before the Mack trade. Now is the time for optimism and positivity. Bears D finishes top 3 with Mack just missing out on DPOY, Roquan winning DROY, and Hicks, Jackson and at least 1 more defender making the Pro Bowl. Trubisky stays below 10int and breaks 20td. Howard gets an All Pro nod and is in the running for the rushing title. Nagy wins Coach of the year and Pace executive. A humbling playoff exit pushes this team to even greater heights and a Super Bowl win the following season.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

13-3. I was debating between 10-6 and 9-7 before the Mack trade. Now is the time for optimism and positivity. Bears D finishes top 3 with Mack just missing out on DPOY, Roquan winning DROY, and Hicks, Jackson and at least 1 more defender making the Pro Bowl. Trubisky stays below 10int and breaks 20td. Howard gets an All Pro nod and is in the running for the rushing title. Nagy wins Coach of the year and Pace executive. A humbling playoff exit pushes this team to even greater heights and a Super Bowl win the following season.

Sounds like the Cubs in '15 - '16.