What Can We Expect Regarding Jordan Howard's Future?

[Bearfacts]

The author makes some good points regarding a decision Ryan Pace will need to make next season as Howard enters into the final year of his four year deal. Does he extend him and at what cost or attempt to trade a very popular RB?

It may be somewhat early to think on this but if Howard's receiving skills have improved and he puts up another 1200 yard season rushing with some significant scoring he'll be tough to let go yet RB costs are escalating again fast.

Will Jordan Howard still be affordable in 2020?

http://chitown-bears.com/thread/3453/jo ... llTo=60447" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[malk]

The union need to negotiate some kind of Bird rights exception so teams can go ever the cap to keep players they drafted.

[Moriarty]

The union need to negotiate some kind of Bird rights exception so teams can go ever the cap to keep players they drafted.

Bleah.

In football, the % of players on your team that are your own draft picks is so low, you can always afford to retain your own draft picks...unless you choose to throw a ton of money at someone else's instead.









The Bear cap problems are due to their own choices, not bad rules.

[Bearfacts]

The union need to negotiate some kind of Bird rights exception so teams can go ever the cap to keep players they drafted.

That's an interesting thought but how will the players view it?

As long as it imposes no limitations that would impact their ability to market themselves as FA it might be an interesting concept. Is it the NBA that has some rules similar to that effect?

[Bearfacts]

The union need to negotiate some kind of Bird rights exception so teams can go ever the cap to keep players they drafted.

Bleah.

In football, the % of players on your team that are your own draft picks is so low, you can always afford to retain your own draft picks...unless you choose to throw a ton of money at someone else's instead.









The Bear cap problems are due to their own choices, not bad rules.

I think the first statement depends to great extent on the team. For instance for many years the Packers were not major players in free agency. It would be interesting to see if anyone has analyzed this and written on it as it relates to the entire NFL.

As it stands I don't see the Bears as having a significant cap problem now but beginning in 2019 Pace may need to start paring higher cap vets like Trevathan from the roster if he expects to keep some of his own draftees with extensions Howard quite possibly being one.

[malk]

The union need to negotiate some kind of Bird rights exception so teams can go ever the cap to keep players they drafted.

That's an interesting thought but how will the players view it?

As long as it imposes no limitations that would impact their ability to market themselves as FA it might be an interesting concept. Is it the NBA that has some rules similar to that effect?

It is from the NBA but couldn't be lifted direct, they have guaranteed contacts and a soft cap in general. I'd envisage letting the team that drafted the player be allowed to offer a contract but the player being able to take whatever deal they wanted. So just getting rid of the cap for one contact, not like a tag.

Obviously it'd need more detail!

[The Marshall Plan]

The author makes some good points regarding a decision Ryan Pace will need to make next season as Howard enters into the final year of his four year deal. Does he extend him and at what cost or attempt to trade a very popular RB?

It may be somewhat early to think on this but if Howard's receiving skills have improved and he puts up another 1200 yard season rushing with some significant scoring he'll be tough to let go yet RB costs are escalating again fast.

Will Jordan Howard still be affordable in 2020?

http://chitown-bears.com/thread/3453/jo ... llTo=60447" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If Howard continues to take care of business his trade value would have to be a higher value day 1 pick. Very late 1st or a 2nd to somebody. He would still only be 25 or so. If we were offered a 2nd round pick for him in 2020 I'd have a hard time walking away from that.

Reason being is that the RB position doesn't have the value it once did and I'd rather have cap dollars, ex-Mack, going towards locking up Biscuit (provided he progresses, etc.) but then rebuilding the right side of the line. That's a looming disaster that we've got to do something about. I don't think Long is all that with the injuries and Massie is not that good.

We can draft a serviceable, or above average running back, sometime between now and 2020.

Now if the cap inflates $15-$20M per year for the next two years then who cares. We can keep Howard.

[jamus34]

Your never going to get someone to trade a 1st for a RB nowadays. Probably not a second either.

Just the way the game has gone...RB's are relatively easily replaceable.

[Rockbear99]

..RB's are relatively easily replaceable.

Tell that to Detroit. lol

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

..RB's are relatively easily replaceable.

Tell that to Detroit. lol

If this team doesn't exploit the the absolute talent that Jordan Howard is, and they continue to give him only 15-20 touches a game. We will be 75% of the team we could be. He is a beast, and the offense should start and end with him.

[Mikefive]

I'm old fashioned. But Jordan Howard is an old fashioned kind of back. The kind of guy you give the ball to 30x a game. And if you want to throw it to a RB, you put in a Tarik Cohen type. Yes, the game has changed. But it's still football. Blocking and tackling. Jordan Howard should be our team's primary option. Let's see if the opponent can stop him. If they can, then we try something else. If they can't, we pound it down their throats, eat the clock and keep their offense off the field. It's a time tested strategy.

I'm not saying we never pass. You can't be too predictable. It's just a matter of emphasis. Who is more likely to win games for us RIGHT NOW? Jordan Howard running it or Mitchell Trubisky throwing it? Today, my money's on Howard. And of course, we'll still throw it some. Biscuit will have opportunities to develop his craft. But I say running it for 120 and passing it for 240 can work. Especially with our defense who I expect more out of than we saw last week.

[GSH]

its such a bears predicament.

Have a lights out RB with a solid YPC? Lets under-utilise him.

Thin at chemistry between catching players and inexperienced QB? Lets pass alot and make sure its to guys like sims who dont know where the sticks are.

We need a strong running back and Jordan is our guy. He's earned a pay check. There are several cap hitting dudes id cut/trade before howard. we need him and its obvious.

[ramentaschen]

I love Howard but think that the Bears are not going to pay him big $$$$ for a fat contract. It looks like they already have too much tied up in other players.

It’s interesting to me that Green Bay seems to get by without a great RB while the Lions continue to struggle without one.

[Bearfacts]

..RB's are relatively easily replaceable.

Tell that to Detroit. lol

If this team doesn't exploit the the absolute talent that Jordan Howard is, and they continue to give him only 15-20 touches a game. We will be 75% of the team we could be. He is a beast, and the offense should start and end with him.

Agree with the LOL and your opinion of Howard.

He's done all he can to improve his receiving skills and you're right. He gets stronger as the game goes on and defenses are more worn down. Regardless of Nagy's pass oriented play calling tendencies he needs to recognize this and use him more strategically than he did Sunday.

All throughout the second half it was all too obvious Mitch was having a bad game. GB's adjustments confused him and he became hesitant about most everything. Even his run came up short of first downs on at least two occasions I recall when had he ran just a little harder he would have made it. QBs are protected to a certain degree even as runners so if you become one and the sticks are close you go for it not slide 3 yards short.

When GB took ARob and Burton out of the game with 7 and 8 man zone coverage that should have been a cue to run Howard and Cohen at them forcing them out of it but Nagy failed to do so and this IMHO is where he could have helped Mitch and his team. I don't disagree with him calling plays but if he insists on doing I believe Helfrich should also be there to advise on strategy and clock management while Nagy is obsessing over his play calls.

Game day coaching is like playing chess. You always need to be a few moves ahead of where you are and IMHO Nagy wasn't there on Sunday which is what may have led to him not using Howard on 3rd and 2 on that last series. The play called was OK but Mitch missed his read on Cohen which he'd been doing most of the second half. At that point Howard gaining 2 yards in 2 downs was a surer bet than Mitch hitting Cohen on a tricky wheel route.

It's fine to study your opponents capabilities and tendencies but not at the expense of losing touch with what's happening with your QB and his struggles to make plays through the air. Howard and Cohen as runners could have helped a lot late in the game especially on that last series because not only wasn't GB stopping him it was also a play on running the clock down even of we failed to make it in two downs and I believe we would have.

[cblaz11]

Gurley will be getting about 15 mill per year..
Jerick McKinnon is making 10 million this year...which is insane.

So what is Howard worth? For me, I’d be ok paying him 8-10 mill per, I just don’t know if that’s enough and I don’t think I’d want to go higher then that.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Gurley will be getting about 15 mill per year..
Jerick McKinnon is making 10 million this year...which is insane.

So what is Howard worth? For me, I’d be ok paying him 8-10 mill per, I just don’t know if that’s enough and I don’t think I’d want to go higher then that.

If we used him as much as we should be, you'd be willing to pay him a lot more. If Nagy was willing to run the passing game off of Howard, the kid would be a 1200yd back, and well worth $11-$12M a year for 3 years.

[Moriarty]

Gurley will be getting about 15 mill per year..
Jerick McKinnon is making 10 million this year...which is insane.

So what is Howard worth? For me, I’d be ok paying him 8-10 mill per, I just don’t know if that’s enough and I don’t think I’d want to go higher then that.

If we used him as much as we should be, you'd be willing to pay him a lot more. If Nagy was willing to run the passing game off of Howard, the kid would be a 1200yd back, and well worth $11-$12M a year for 3 years.

While I'm not necessarily arguing he shouldn't be utilized more, tbf:

If you extrapolate week 1 out to 16 games, he's on pace for 1300yds.
Even if you suspect he can't maintain 5.5 ypc and project at his career avg of 4.6 instead, that still comes out to over 1100 yds.

[Boris13c]

..RB's are relatively easily replaceable.

Tell that to Detroit. lol

If this team doesn't exploit the the absolute talent that Jordan Howard is, and they continue to give him only 15-20 touches a game. We will be 75% of the team we could be. He is a beast, and the offense should start and end with him.

I agree

if utilized properly, Howard will provide 1,300 - 1,500 yards on the ground and help to make the passing game flow more smoothly

[wab]

I think he gets a second contract with the Bears. I won't speculate dollars or length, but I do think he gets another deal.

[Boris13c]

I think he gets a second contract with the Bears. I won't speculate dollars or length, but I do think he gets another deal.

and I think he will earn it and deserve it

[G08]

I think he gets a second contract with the Bears. I won't speculate dollars or length, but I do think he gets another deal.

Yeah? I don't think I see it happening but I hope you are right.

I think they value Cohen more and believe you can find a "more" well rounded Jordan Howard in the middle-to-late rounds of the draft. It would be a shame to lose him; he has ELITE vision -- some of the holes and cutbacks he found last week against Green Bay blew my mind.

[malk]

I see no way we keep Howard at this rate, much as that makes me sad. He'll command more as a free agent than we're willing to give him. He's good for averaging 100 per game given any kind of support. 3rd in active players for rushing yards per game without getting ridiculous touches, without an incredible offensive line (though not a bad one) and without a passing attack to take the focus away from him.

I'm amazed at how underrated he is.

[Bearfacts]

I think he gets a second contract with the Bears. I won't speculate dollars or length, but I do think he gets another deal.

He's already making his case for it by improving his receiving skills.

I don't deny that RBs are easier to come by than some other positions but those who have the combination of power, vision, and nifty feet are far more rare. Howard is a guy whose been compared with Zeke Elliott and by now I'm betting more than one team is wondering how they passed on him for 5 rounds. He's a damn good RB.

In combination between rushing and receiving he had 107 yards on 20 touches. That's an average of 5.35 yds per play and if he can average that over the course of 16 games it's just over 1700 yards total offense. Those are numbers that equal or better some of Matt Forte's better years and with a higher average per play. Yep, he's a damn good RB.

[Mr.Irrelevant]

I think we'll have Howard for at least two more years.

Next year he's still under contract but I don't see us extending him. Instead, I think we'll hit him with a 1st or 2nd round transition tag and then deciding whether to match any offers he might get. Because of his position he probably doesn't get any offers so he sticks around in 2020.

At that point, if he continues on his current pace, it might be cheaper to franchise him and keep him for 2021 - by then he'll have been in the league for 6 years, which is when many bigger backs begin to fade. Unlikely he gets a long term deal.

That's pretty much what's going on with Le'veon Bell.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Pace is going to have some tough decisions to make with the number of first contract starters and key contributors in the next 2 to 3 years:

Amos

Howard, Whitehair, Floyd (+ Kwiatkoski)

Jackson, Cohen, and of course the big one, Trubisky (+ Shaheen)

It's hard to see how he's going to manage to re-sign them all to market-rate contracts, assuming they continue to ascend, especially after signing Mack to a monster contract. His immediate predecessors weren't good enough at drafting to face such dilemmas.

Of all of them, Howard has been far and away the most impressive and productive to date. I'd hate to see him go. He's put up better numbers than Gurley did in his first two seasons. Of course, Gurley was named offensive player of the year in his third, but Howard's agent has got to be thinking of Gurley's 4 year $60m contract with $45m guaranteed as a ball park starting point when the time comes, as will the agents of every other top RB.

Hopefully Pace will continue to draft promising players that can replace a few of the more highly paid veterans, plus there will be money saved by not having to pay the top-end draft picks that have been traded away and the salary cap should continue to rise, so there's going to be some room for manoeuvre.

In the meantime, I'm just going to keep looking forward to watching Howard play every week and keep my fingers crossed that some of the others become the players we hope they will be so we can finally enjoy having a competitve team again.

[GSH]

also depends how healthy he remains over the next year

[Mikefive]

Can anybody imagine him playing for Green Bay?

[southdakbearfan]

I don't think they will keep him. He will play out his two seasons and become an unrestricted free agent. The franchise or transition tags will be too high with the other contracts on the team, but he most likely would result in a compensatory draft pick unless they sign a bunch of other guys, but that isn't likely.

I would expect another RB being drafted next season unless they really like one of the guys on the practice squad.

It sucks, but it will be the reality with the other high priced players unless they would unload someone like robinson if he didn't work out.

[Bearfacts]

I don't think they will keep him. He will play out his two seasons and become an unrestricted free agent. The franchise or transition tags will be too high with the other contracts on the team, but he most likely would result in a compensatory draft pick unless they sign a bunch of other guys, but that isn't likely.

I would expect another RB being drafted next season unless they really like one of the guys on the practice squad.

It sucks, but it will be the reality with the other high priced players unless they would unload someone like robinson if he didn't work out.

Two years out is when Amukamar's deal causes no dead cap and in all likelihood Trevathan will be gone. And since other deals also provide a backdoor after year two it's possible with a rising cap to afford Howard provided he's been healthy and productive all four years. If so and he shows no sign of slowing he'll have earned it at least somewhere else if not in Chicago.

[The Marshall Plan]

I think he gets a second contract with the Bears. I won't speculate dollars or length, but I do think he gets another deal.

Yeah? I don't think I see it happening but I hope you are right.

I think they value Cohen more and believe you can find a "more" well rounded Jordan Howard in the middle-to-late rounds of the draft. It would be a shame to lose him; he has ELITE vision -- some of the holes and cutbacks he found last week against Green Bay blew my mind.

I totally agree. If given the option I'd rather lock up Cohen and then draft Howard's replacement. Players like Cohen are so rare (Sproles, who else at that level? Is he really comparable to Hill?) that if you get one you've got to keep him.

If the cap keeps inflating the way it does we'll be able to retain him.

Not saying this totally applies to Howard, certainly hasn't the past two years, but running back performance is partly a function of the passing game. With this offense who in their right mind is going to stack 7 in the box except in obvious situations? We can draft Howard's replacement in this offense.