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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:10 pm 
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malk wrote:
UOK wrote:
wab wrote:
Apparently the Bears are just supposed to hand out vet minimums and rookie deals for ever and ever amen.



It's the same old tired shit.


After Nick Foles left the Eagles the first time he got contracts of $4m, $1.75m and $1.6m. I don't think giving $5m per year and $7m guaranteed to Daniel wasn't particularly smart from Pace, especially with a new coach and years where we're likely not competing for a ring (though hopefully we're outside, but genuine, contenders next year).

I know everything is supposed to be fine right now but when we have to start choosing between Amos or Callahan or Massive I'm going to be looking back and thinking, gee, maybe we shouldn't have pissed away $25m on Glennon and Daniel...
Was that meant to be a dig or was it just an excellent misspelling? :)

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:18 pm 
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malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


Yes it is fine & will continue to be fine.

Properly training of a franchise QB is easily worth 3 Amos.
Amoses.
3 Amoses:s...

Yeah... either way... We've ALL been pissin & moaning about this franchises inability to find & CULTIVATE a franchise QB.
I say... let them do their job of that & maybe even appreciate it.!?

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:37 pm 
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Pagan wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


Yes it is fine & will continue to be fine.

Properly training of a franchise QB is easily worth 3 Amos.
Amoses.
3 Amoses:s...

Yeah... either way... We've ALL been pissin & moaning about this franchises inability to find & CULTIVATE a franchise QB.
I say... let them do their job of that & maybe even appreciate it.!?
Sounds like you were heading toward... mamosas. :-P

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:39 pm 
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Yea give me a chase Daniel who can at least give you a chance to win over a jimmy clausen who gives you zero hope of winning. That Seattle game where it was like a fan had won a raffle prize to play bears QB for the day was both embarrassing and disgusting.

That’s the difference right there. It’s night and day.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:27 pm 
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Bearfanuk wrote:
Yea give me a chase Daniel who can at least give you a chance to win over a jimmy clausen who gives you zero hope of winning. That Seattle game where it was like a fan had won a raffle prize to play bears QB for the day was both embarrassing and disgusting.

That’s the difference right there. It’s night and day.


Daniels came in & the team went 1 & 1, which is pretty much what you expect in a halfway decent back up scenario.
His biggest value has always been his ability to accelerate Mitchs understanding of the Nagy offense, which seems to have been quite the boon.

TOTALLY worth the $.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:35 am 
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G08 wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


We can cut him for $3M of dead cap space after this season.


And all the dead cap adds up to good players leaving in free agency. The Saints are a prime example of this and given Pace's express love for how they operate, I worry about it! This year we've got $14,949,222 in dead cap space, of course this can't be reduced to zero but it really shouldn't be that high.

UOK wrote:
There's no doubt about Glennon. You'll never get a single argument from me about that. It wasn't a horrible deal to get out of, but it was probably on the surface the worst contract in Bears history.


This is where we disagree, it was a horrible deal to get out of, $16m is a lot of cap space and will materially effect our roster in future. We will lose someone we don't want to in free agency because of this.

wab wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...

NFL contracts aren't as black and white as you tend to make them. If the Bears want to keep Amos they can, regardless of a contract they gave a QB two years ago.


I'm not sure how I'm making them black and white? And maybe they can keep Amos but can they keep Amos AND Callahan AND Massie? And then can they keep Trevathan, Floyd and Whitehair the year after, then in 2021 Allen Robinson, Prince Amukamara, Mitchell Trubisky, Adam Shaheen, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen...

Yes some difficult choices will always have to be made but why make them harder? What's the marginal improvement in our win % by having Daniel over a cheaper QB. How important is that improvement in the given year and what's the opportunity cost of the improvement in future years? Are future years likely to be more important than the current one?

Those aren't easy questions and there aren't correct answers per se, but I do have reservations, based on Pace's actions (and the general, predictable/understandable short termism in the NFL) that he focusses a little too much on the here and now at the expense of our prime window years or, and this would be more important, developing a structure where we can be perennial contenders rather than cyclical ones.

To be very clear, where we are now is much, much better than what we've been recently but this being an internet message board, I want to strive towards perfection.

Pagan wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


Yes it is fine & will continue to be fine.

Properly training of a franchise QB is easily worth 3 Amos.
Amoses.
3 Amoses:s...

Yeah... either way... We've ALL been pissin & moaning about this franchises inability to find & CULTIVATE a franchise QB.
I say... let them do their job of that & maybe even appreciate it.!?


That's a false dichotomy though, this isn't between Amos (or whichever player) or the proper training of a franchise QB but between the marginal improvement of having Daniel instead of another, cheaper vet QB (e.g. the same argument was made for Sanchez) on top of Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone.

Of course there's also the marginal improvement to W/L % of Daniel over a cheaper vet which is important.

My view is that the improvement to an early career QB that comes from a particular vet backup is pretty small. The vast majority comes from actual coaching. Sure, don't put them in a bad situation with an arsehole that's willing them to fail to get their chance but that's not a possibility here.

Pagan wrote:
Bearfanuk wrote:
Yea give me a chase Daniel who can at least give you a chance to win over a jimmy clausen who gives you zero hope of winning. That Seattle game where it was like a fan had won a raffle prize to play bears QB for the day was both embarrassing and disgusting.

That’s the difference right there. It’s night and day.


Daniels came in & the team went 1 & 1, which is pretty much what you expect in a halfway decent back up scenario.
His biggest value has always been his ability to accelerate Mitchs understanding of the Nagy offense, which seems to have been quite the boon.

TOTALLY worth the $.


This is a good example to highlight part of my point. How important is that extra win, or rather the increase in probability of getting that win over a cheaper backup, in a season where we're not really contending? If that's the win that gets us into the playoffs then I might take a different view but a) I suspect it won't be and b) with our defence and offensive weapons I think there are a good few backups who could have beaten the Lions and/or not thrown 2 interceptions (including a pick 6) and fumbled 4 times against the Giants.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Pace or the Bear's set up is/are bad by any stretch, but there are things that could be improved.

Mikefive wrote:
Was that meant to be a dig or was it just an excellent misspelling? :)


Never a dig, I think Bobbie Massive is underrated!

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:49 am 
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malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


We can cut him for $3M of dead cap space after this season.


And all the dead cap adds up to good players leaving in free agency. The Saints are a prime example of this and given Pace's express love for how they operate, I worry about it! This year we've got $14,949,222 in dead cap space, of course this can't be reduced to zero but it really shouldn't be that high.

UOK wrote:
There's no doubt about Glennon. You'll never get a single argument from me about that. It wasn't a horrible deal to get out of, but it was probably on the surface the worst contract in Bears history.


This is where we disagree, it was a horrible deal to get out of, $16m is a lot of cap space and will materially effect our roster in future. We will lose someone we don't want to in free agency because of this.

wab wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...

NFL contracts aren't as black and white as you tend to make them. If the Bears want to keep Amos they can, regardless of a contract they gave a QB two years ago.


I'm not sure how I'm making them black and white? And maybe they can keep Amos but can they keep Amos AND Callahan AND Massie? And then can they keep Trevathan, Floyd and Whitehair the year after, then in 2021 Allen Robinson, Prince Amukamara, Mitchell Trubisky, Adam Shaheen, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen...

Yes some difficult choices will always have to be made but why make them harder? What's the marginal improvement in our win % by having Daniel over a cheaper QB. How important is that improvement in the given year and what's the opportunity cost of the improvement in future years? Are future years likely to be more important than the current one?

Those aren't easy questions and there aren't correct answers per se, but I do have reservations, based on Pace's actions (and the general, predictable/understandable short termism in the NFL) that he focusses a little too much on the here and now at the expense of our prime window years or, and this would be more important, developing a structure where we can be perennial contenders rather than cyclical ones.

To be very clear, where we are now is much, much better than what we've been recently but this being an internet message board, I want to strive towards perfection.

Pagan wrote:
malk wrote:
G08 wrote:
I think Daniel's greatest impact on this team is "tutoring" Trubisky. Let's not make this more than what it is.


That's fine until Amos is wearing another jersey because Trubisky got another $7m of coaching in addition to Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone...


Yes it is fine & will continue to be fine.

Properly training of a franchise QB is easily worth 3 Amos.
Amoses.
3 Amoses:s...

Yeah... either way... We've ALL been pissin & moaning about this franchises inability to find & CULTIVATE a franchise QB.
I say... let them do their job of that & maybe even appreciate it.!?


That's a false dichotomy though, this isn't between Amos (or whichever player) or the proper training of a franchise QB but between the marginal improvement of having Daniel instead of another, cheaper vet QB (e.g. the same argument was made for Sanchez) on top of Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone.

Of course there's also the marginal improvement to W/L % of Daniel over a cheaper vet which is important.

My view is that the improvement to an early career QB that comes from a particular vet backup is pretty small. The vast majority comes from actual coaching. Sure, don't put them in a bad situation with an arsehole that's willing them to fail to get their chance but that's not a possibility here.

Pagan wrote:
Bearfanuk wrote:
Yea give me a chase Daniel who can at least give you a chance to win over a jimmy clausen who gives you zero hope of winning. That Seattle game where it was like a fan had won a raffle prize to play bears QB for the day was both embarrassing and disgusting.

That’s the difference right there. It’s night and day.


Daniels came in & the team went 1 & 1, which is pretty much what you expect in a halfway decent back up scenario.
His biggest value has always been his ability to accelerate Mitchs understanding of the Nagy offense, which seems to have been quite the boon.

TOTALLY worth the $.


This is a good example to highlight part of my point. How important is that extra win, or rather the increase in probability of getting that win over a cheaper backup, in a season where we're not really contending? If that's the win that gets us into the playoffs then I might take a different view but a) I suspect it won't be and b) with our defence and offensive weapons I think there are a good few backups who could have beaten the Lions and/or not thrown 2 interceptions (including a pick 6) and fumbled 4 times against the Giants.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Pace or the Bear's set up is/are bad by any stretch, but there are things that could be improved.

Mikefive wrote:
Was that meant to be a dig or was it just an excellent misspelling? :)


Never a dig, I think Bobbie Massive is underrated!

I feel like you deposit the pennies you find on the ground into the retirement funds of children that won't be born for another generation.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:56 am 
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wab wrote:
I feel like you deposit the pennies you find on the ground into the retirement funds of children that won't be born for another generation.


Compound interest is pretty incredible...

Honestly though, I think there are three/four broad phases of an NFL team. Rebuilding, starting a window, clinging onto a window and perennial contending.

Rebuilds are all about finding talent and not wasting cap space. Typically that's finding a QB and getting some building block players on the books, preferably somewhat front-loaded but certainly not backloaded. This is what most teams try. To go a step further you shouldn't waste cap in these years on established talent unless you're front loading. All those low to mid priced vets you see teams sign to shore up the roster are just a waste, better to sign high risk reward types as you're not winning much anyway, try to catch lightning in a bottle. The worst that happens is they don't pan out and you get better draft picks.

Also trade down from the top of the 1st, preferably outside the top 10. The cap savings are worth it in addition to extra picks, plus it makes the 5th year option cheaper too.

Starting a window is about adding talent for the peak years of the run. At this point it's fine to bring in high priced free agents for the window period or beyond, especially if you're leveraging a rookie deal QB, but don't overspend on short term talent when you're not quite there (this is us now).

Clinging onto a window is when it's likely going to shit but you might as well roll the dice. Probably like us, at first, with Cutler, Emery, Trestman so, sure, might as well roll the dice, just go all out for a short period rather than screwing yourself for years. The Giants are doing this badly and I bet the Packers end up looking the same as they won't gut for a year or two to rebuild properly. Halfway house rebuilding on the fly just wastes prime years and messes up the draft, like us at the start of the Fox era.

Perennial Contending is when you listen to me and don't try too hard to win rings. It won't happen every year so don't make knee jerk signings to get over the hump that really just introduce a window.

All teams need is to give me a big wooden ruler and have me sit in for discussions on free agency. Anytime the GM is about to do something silly I smack their hands with the ruler, say a firm no, and move on.

Then we wait for the rings.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:10 pm 
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{{Me:

Daniels came in & the team went 1 & 1, which is pretty much what you expect in a halfway decent back up scenario.
His biggest value has always been his ability to accelerate Mitchs understanding of the Nagy offense, which seems to have been quite the boon.

TOTALLY worth the $}}


((TheMalk

This is a good example to highlight part of my point. How important is that extra win, or rather the increase in probability of getting that win over a cheaper backup, in a season where we're not really contending? If that's the win that gets us into the playoffs then I might take a different view but a) I suspect it won't be and b) with our defence and offensive weapons I think there are a good few backups who could have beaten the Lions and/or not thrown 2 interceptions (including a pick 6) and fumbled 4 times against the Giants.))

* * *

I think you made some great points (many not shown here)

As for your example of highlighting part of your previous point... I suppose it may be as nebulous as mine.

If I get your point, there's no true way to quantify the extra hands on coaching that Chase is providing Mitch ~ ESPECIALLY in terms of $$$$.

At the same time, I'm not sure how you can talk about probability when questioning the possibility of another (cheaper) back up QB playing at the same level as Chase.

Starting QB's stats are erratic enough on their own.. I don't even know where I'd start at trying to reliably chart the back ups Win/loss to $ value ratio.

On my side of things... Mitch certainly seems to be developing (& quickly) into a very good NFL starting QB!

There's zero way to know what % of mentorship Chase has contributed to Trubiskis growth.

But considering the overall value of a really good franchise QB vs an average to below average NFL starter???

I'll double down on that bet and STILL gladly pay Chase $7 Million (especially with someone else's wallet).

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:25 pm 
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It pretty simple really ...... Mitch is on a rookie contract so you have a cheap starting QB. You can then spend a little more on a back up QC. When one is installing a new system, it makes perfect sense to spend a little more and make sure you get an experienced QB in that system (we got two since Bray was in KC too). Once you get to be like Rogers, Brady, or Brees..... your only choice is to have a backup on a rookie deal since they are commanding so much money. It is all about allocating X percent of your cap on QB and keeping it consistent. Same should go for ever position on the team if you want to build a perennial winner. If you start spending too much money on one position you will have holes elsewhere, that is why you have to keep it consistent from year to year.

Once we have to re-sign Mitch you are looking at 4th round and later draft picks to fill the QB room.


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