Massie Would Like To Remain A Bear........

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

This is a super interesting thread IMO, nice job all around.

JMO, but I think Amos is the most replaceable of the three mentioned. Talent/performance wise, I think Callahan is the best player of the three, but he gets knocked back in value because of injuries. Amos has had the most production and is steady as they come. And Massie is a decent RT but has costly lapses. When looking at position value though, SS isn't that difficult to replace. NB is really tough, and RT as others have mentioned is very costly.

We also have Bush and McManis (McManis is better suited at S than NB IMO) if we lose Amos, so I worry less about a transition there than I do at either NB or T. Not sure I agree with the "Long needs to stay" thinking, his best play is behind him and his body is breaking down. If you degrade Callahan's value some due to injury, how can you not severely degrade Long's value due to injury (and age as well)?

When building a sustainable franchise like the Pats/Steelers, you gotta a) keep your young ascending players and b) move on from aging guys who's best days are behind them. It hurts when it happens, I love Long, but it's a necessary part of the business of running a franchise.

Yes, but McManis has proven to be more than serviceable as a nickel corner, in this scheme. If you're going to follow the Steelers/Pats model. You need to go lock up your best S for a long time (ala Polamalu, McCourty, Chancellor, etc.). I would rather keep McManis at NB, and move Bush to S, and extend Eddie Jackson next year on a big fat, four year contract (4yrs $42M w/$18G). A safety like EJax makes a defense go from good to elite. With all four levels locked up for four years (DL, LB, CB, S), this defense will be INSANE over the next three.

I don't disagree, but I see this as a false choice. You've linked keeping Callahan to dropping Eddie Jackson, that's just not the choice we face. Eddie Jackson cannot leave, couldn't agree more there. But Kyle Long can, and Adrian Amos can...that's the choice here. I'd have Bush/McManis at S along side Jackson. Sign Callahan. Cut Long. Don't resign Amos. Cut Sims. Resign Witzman to a cheapo deal, he's been serviceable, and draft a G this year to work with Hiestand. And I'd lock RRH up to a long term deal, that should be fairly cheap but he's an ascending player IMO. With this plan, you don't have to lose Callahan in order to keep Jackson.

Eddie Jackson is a FA after the end of 2020, IIRC. I don't want that guy even sniffing the open market. I want him to be excited about playing on a playoff team with Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, and sign on the dotted line for another four years. Nothing is more important to the success of the Bears defense, beyond 2020, than locking up EJax.

[GSH]

The
Bears have about $20M in space heading into next year according to Sportrac and Over the Cap. Cutting Simms saves another $6M, which essentially is your rookie and emergency funds, so you still really only have $20M to spend.

Players coming out of contract:
Adiran Amos
Bobby Massie
Bryce Callahan
Bryan Witzmann
Aaron Lynch
Roy Robertson Harris (I think is restricted)
Patrick Scales
Pat O'Donnell
Josh Bellamy
Benny Cunningham
Kevin White
Daniel Brown
Ben Braunecker
Isiah Irving
Rashaad Coward
Eric Kush

No way you can sign them all. Cutting Long does save another $6M, but then you are replacing another starter on the offensive line if you can't re-sign Witzz and Massie. Going to be a rough off season.

Oh ya... no first or second round picks to replace anyone. First pick is going to be somewhere around 90 this year!

out of that list, players im ok waving bye bye to:

Adiran Amos
Bobby Massie
Benny Cunningham
Kevin White
Daniel Brown
Ben Braunecker
Isiah Irving
Rashaad Coward
Eric Kush

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

The
Bears have about $20M in space heading into next year according to Sportrac and Over the Cap. Cutting Simms saves another $6M, which essentially is your rookie and emergency funds, so you still really only have $20M to spend.

Players coming out of contract:
Adiran Amos
Bobby Massie
Bryce Callahan
Bryan Witzmann
Aaron Lynch
Roy Robertson Harris (I think is restricted)
Patrick Scales
Pat O'Donnell
Josh Bellamy
Benny Cunningham
Kevin White
Daniel Brown
Ben Braunecker
Isiah Irving
Rashaad Coward
Eric Kush

No way you can sign them all. Cutting Long does save another $6M, but then you are replacing another starter on the offensive line if you can't re-sign Witzz and Massie. Going to be a rough off season.

Oh ya... no first or second round picks to replace anyone. First pick is going to be somewhere around 90 this year!

out of that list, players im ok waving bye bye to:

Adiran Amos
Bobby Massie
Benny Cunningham
Kevin White
Daniel Brown
Ben Braunecker
Isiah Irving
Rashaad Coward
Eric Kush

I’d keep Braunecker, Coward, and Massie. As depth and prospects.


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[Bearfanuk]

All these different permutations have my head hurting so early on a Sunday. One thing I am sure off though is i 100% trust Ryan pace to knock this off season out of the park. You don’t pull the trigger on Mack opening your window without having a bullet proof game plan.

[cblaz11]

I’d have serious concerns with paying Callahan. The guy just can’t stay on the field....that said, as solid as McManus has been, Callahan was better. He was having a probowl year before going down. Our odds of bringing him back went up when he went down.

Your first sentence is incomplete. You'd have concerns about paying Callahan.... what? $1M/year? That's paying him and I'd have zero concern about that. $12M/year? That's a problem. As you imply in your last sentence, his reliability affects who is interested and how much they'd offer. His size also doesn't fit what some teams want, which could also lower his price. My guess is that he'll get right around the middle of those 2 numbers.

Were paying Fulller 14 mill per year and Prince 9 mill per year.

When you look at the highest paid slot guys you have Aaron Colvin who is making 8.5 per, Robey-Coleman is at a little over 5 mill, and Patrick Robinson is around 5 per season. I don’t think I’d be willing to pay Callahan 5 or higher. For me, I’d be ok with 3.5 per and up to 5 with incentives.

[Mikefive]

I think you're going to see slot corners salaries take a leap this offseason. These guys are pretty much starters now and good ones have a fairly unique skill set. Just sayin'.

[cblaz11]

I agree...I guess it comes down to me having more faith in finding a cheap replacement for Callahan then I do for Amos. I think it’s going to come down to only keeping one of them.

[cblaz11]

Let me rephrase that...I have more faith in Amos and let’s just say McManus then I do Callahan and Bush in large part because of Callahan’s injury past.

All this is assuming we only keep Amos or Callahan, which is my belief. I could be wrong...Callahan’s injury may have just made keeping both a possibility.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I think you're going to see slot corners salaries take a leap this offseason. These guys are pretty much starters now and good ones have a fairly unique skill set. Just sayin'.

Correct, but other teams aren't paying their two corners a total of $23M. You can't have a secondary that takes up 15% of your total cap number. We are going to have to look at getting another nickel corner on the cheap. I still say, an above average CB will look like a hero in this defense, because of all of the talent around them.

[Z Bear]

There are only 38 players under contract (which includes Sam Acho and CB Rashard Fant). Assuming all 5 draft picks make the roster you are still looking at 10 more bodies to fill out the team. If the Bears can lock up the list below I would consider it a successful off season.

Adiran Amos
Bobby Massie
Bryan Witzmann
Roy Robertson Harris
Patrick Scales
Pat O'Donnell
Josh Bellamy
Daniel Brown
Isiah Irving
Rashaad Coward

[Knuckles]

Never really liked Massie and still, I'm not a fan. He's the top position I would upgrade this offseason and I believe the Bears will try and find an upgrade. I agree he has improved over the past couple years but he's still not very good. If he was there wouldn't be any debate about it lol...

If he's here for the next 2 years I won't lose sleep over it because if he's the one player on this team I think needs to go outside of Parkey, that's pretty damn amazing after most of us would've replaced 3/4 of the team just a couple years ago and Massie would've topped that list back then as well...

I just hope that if they resign him it's only for 2 years max at a hometown discount so if they do draft an RT they can play him sooner than later.

[Sugashane]

Without a significant pay cut, I just can't keep Massie.

I think there will be some attempts to restructure through the team though.

Quick and dirty plan -
Cut Sims for $6 mil savings ($26)

Cut Acho for $2.125 mil savings ($28.125)

Let Long know he has to either be cut or restructure. He has only started 26 of the last 48 regular season games. He can have more guaranteed (as he only has $3 mil left) but to extend to a more team friendly deal. He is already 30 too so no reason to expect him to suddenly find exceptional durability. Say something like 2 years, $12 mil with $8 mil guaranteed. His cap hit is now 6/6 with incentives, and he gets to ride it out with a young, talented team while he finally has a major chance for a Super Bowl. That or try trading him for a low pick just to get something for him. I'd imagine there are a few teams willing to part with a 5th or even a 6 over the next 2 years to get a talent to protect a young QB, even with injury concerns. That would allow us to be rid of his entire deal I believe, no? Assuming the former we have him at $2.5 mil savings in 2019. ($30.625)

Chase Daniel is making $6 mil and is JAG as a reserve. Literally the only thing he has going for him is system familiarity. But cutting him only opens up $3 mil, so do you cut and gamble on Bray? Use limited draft resources on a rookie (I likely would, I think Stick could be there in the 5th ATM), or think you can get a vet for under $3 mil? I try to restructure, make his deal a 3 year $12 mil deal with $8 mil guaranteed. Structured 4/4/4. Cut him with another younger replacement after his 2nd year. Opens $2 mil more. He knows he is getting overpaid, and not getting another $6 mil per deal, he got it to be a mentor and to teach the system to Tru, not because of his ability to play. He knows this too. ($32.725)

ARob is due for $15 mil, maybe he will redo his deal to get more guaranteed cash. He has $7 mil guaranteed left out of $30 mil but is due for a $15 mil cap hit each year. I try to convince him to do a 2 year extension for $26 mil, with $18 guaranteed (the same he received over a 3 year deal now over just 2 years, and allows him another big deal before 30). Get the deal to make his 4 years at a 13/14/14/14, only his last year lacking guaranteed cash. That is another $2 mil though. ($34.625)

DT has been solid but is the #2 ILB now. Smith is the future and he is going to be 29 before TC next year. Like Long, either he is going to restructure, cut, or traded for peanuts. I try to give him a 2 year extension so he is making 6/6/6 over the next 3 years, with $13 mil guaranteed (dead cap of $1 for his last year). Let him ride as long as he can be afforded, and for both our years of lower draft capital. Saved $1.65 mil ($36.275 mil)

Prince has been the king of the one year deal, and he just finally got a multiyear deal. Maybe he will want another one year deal as an extension? He knows his time is coming up, Toliver is his likely replacement, he can be cut for only $1 million in dead cap in 2020 after costing 9.5/10. Maybe explore making his deal come to 8/8/8 with The first $16 mil guaranteed. Gives him more money up front, extends his time in Chicago by at least one more year with the crazy passrush that he is enjoying, etc. I'm going to assume he will bet on himself though and turn it down. Plus him being gone means the money can go directly to Jackson. Toliver will step up on the outside to replace Prince.

Looking at the RFA tenders, I am not sure if they are worth the estimated cost ATM
First Round $4,429,000
Second Round $3,110,000
Original Round $2,035,000

Players coming out of contract I want to sign:
Adiran Amos - offer an average of $6 mil. He is solid but I can't put him above Micah Hyde, who has forced way more turnovers. I can walk into 2019 offseason with SS and RT as my two real needs.
Bryce Callahan - I offer a 4 year, $28 mil deal with $20 guaranteed. Structure 7.5/ 7.5/6.5/6.5 (allows us to load up now to try and make space for Jackson, Whitehair, RRH, etc. Plus Amukamara is out after 2 years so the allocated cap at CB drops dramatically then.
Bryan Witzmann - 2 years, $3 mil. Big boost for him, making slightly more than Kush did this year each year.
Roy Robertson Harris - RFA tender is sure AF getting signed if he turns down a 3 year, $6 mil deal
Patrick Scales - just throwing 750K each year on 3 year deal.
Deandre Houston-Carson - $2 years, $2 mil
Ben Braunecker - 2 years, $2 mil
Isiah Irving -2 years, 2 mil
Rashaad Coward - 2 years, $2.5 mil
Used $22 mil out of $36.25.

Cap left is $14.25 mil left. No first or second rounders make the rookie pool limited, so we can still add cheap contracts to add young talent.
- Also if Amos or Massie balk at their deals, I thank them and move on. There are a few targets I can live with replacing them.

Let go
Bobby Massie - I'd sign for $6 mil per year, I bet he can get more with the OT market
Pat O'Donnell - undrafted FAs fight for the spot
Josh Bellamy - DHC is his replacement, will get young guys to right to take his old spot
Aaron Lynch - almost $4 mil cap hit, could go for $3 but IDK if he'd bite. Letting Irving/Fitts fight for his spot in the rotation
Benny Cunningham - Mizzell is Nagy's choice over him, no reason to keep Benny now.
Eric Kush - apparent concerns over neck
Kevin White - I'd happily sign for vet min, but no more. Someone will offer him more due to draft status/physical gifts
Daniel Brown - Braunecker is better IMO and offers more physical ability.

For S there are a few guys that I would try before giving more than 6 mil to Amos. Haha Clinton Dix at $4m, Vaccaro at $2m, Tre Boston for $3 mil, etc. Only S I pay over $6 this offseason is HoneyBadger.

Key Replacements for RT and SS
For RT I want to bring in a guy to compete vs Coward, and loser is the swing OT and likely future replacement at RG for Long
- Trent Brown for $5.5 mil per year (I like him way more on the right than on the left, fits the power scheme better than Massie. Coward gets to be groomed to replace Long at RG.

Getting one of them would be able to make it easier to focus on our 3rd rounder as well if we need to go that way.

There are ways to do it, and they WILL get it done at Halas Hall, but there are just a lot of variables to work through. The offseason is long though, and there is PLENTY of time to get it done.