How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

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At what price, do you trade Jordan Howard?

I wouldn't trade him
9
24%
2nd round pick
12
32%
3rd round pick
14
37%
3rd round comp pick
0
No votes
4th round pick
2
5%
4th round comp pick
0
No votes
5th rounder
0
No votes
5th round comp pick
0
No votes
6th rounder
1
3%
7th rounder
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 38
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Mikefive
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How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:57 pm

It appears that Jordan Howard doesn't seem like the best fit for Nagy's razzle dazzle offense. That said, he does clearly play a useful role as the primary RB and sledgehammer ball carrier for short yardage and when it's time to run clock. And, with the adjustment with more zone blocking the last few weeks of the season, Howard's production improved, even if we almost never used him in the passing game outside of a blocker.

As we have discussed here many times, it would be pretty easy to imagine a team with a more traditional offense based on a zone blocking scheme who would value a 2nd in the league in rushing a couple years back player more than the Bears do and be willing to relinquish draft capital to take him off our hands for the last year of his cheap rookie contract. Furthermore, without R1 and R2 picks in the upcoming draft, we're particularly lacking in draft capital, which makes the prospect of acquiring another selection enticing.

Even so, because Howard only has one year left on his deal, it's not like teams are going to give up a king's ransom for a guy who will be cheap for one year, then have his hand out for a bigger payday and perhaps leave as a FA the next year. Perhaps more likely is that a team might trade for him and immediately sign him longer term. But even then, you don't trade big picks for a guy like that when you might be able to wait and sign him to a bigger deal without giving up anything in 2020.

Here's the question... If you're Ryan Pace, what would it take to entice you to trade Jordan Howard?

Answer the poll and discuss.
(Note that I can only specify 10 options in the poll. I figured the offer of a R1 pick was out of the realm of possiblity. Heck a R2 also seems crazy to me, but I included it anyway. I included comp picks as they were kind of "in between" value spots. But I didn't have enough choices to include comp picks for every round.)
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VA_Mountain_Bear
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:00 pm

I love me some Howard. If Nagy goes more to the blocking schemes of the last 1/4 of the season over the first 3/4 he can do better. But, don't flame me for this, if Kareem Hunt can be cleared to join a team again I'd take him over Howard with no second thoughts. He would literally be the perfect back for this offense. Can you imagine him and Cohen together?
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Mikefive
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:18 pm

If I'm Ryan Pace, I'm thinking Super Bowl in 2019. It's true that I could use more draft capital and cap room. But there's no guarantee that even a R3 pick is going to contribute RIGHT NOW, which is what I need.

Jordan Howard has value. With the blocking adjustments we made in November/December, Howard goes from a 900-yard back to 1100 or more. And he can block. And he's effective in bad weather, which is important in Chicago. And he can grind out clock with a lead, which we'll need more of. Is he optimal? No. But we're in WIN NOW mode, and I'm not into giving away pieces that work today in the hope of making things better 2 years from now.

My measuing stick says that we can get a better, plug and play RB with more versatility to improve our offense in R2. So that's my price. I think that's pretty unrealistic, so effectively my answer is to keep him. But if somebody's willing to pony up a R2 selection for him, we shake hands, give the guy a big hug and wish him all the best.
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wab
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:52 pm

If he’s not in the Bears future plans, then it’s best to get something for him while he’s young and healthy. But it makes the team weaker. Even though he lacks in speed and explosiveness he has elite vision and that’s hard to teach.
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malk
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:09 pm

Even in this down year 900 yards isn't awful and his contract is for nothing. The replacement would cost more than keeping him and we don't have all that much brass to spend.

2nd round for me which I don't think anyone would give up. Hopefully Nagy improves his play calling and running game next year (this isn't a criticism, it'd be going from good to elite) and can fit Howard in.

I can see our 3rd rounder going on the type of back he envisions though, especially as there might be value there.
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Moriarty
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:58 pm

I agree with you that even for just one more year - 2019 is really important. That's where the window is.
And I'm cautiously optimistic about being able to get a 3/4 comp pick if he leaves as a FA.

So it would take a 2. Or maybe a really high 3 on the clock, with someone very coveted available.
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Mikefive
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:26 pm

wab wrote:If he’s not in the Bears future plans, then it’s best to get something for him while he’s young and healthy. But it makes the team weaker. Even though he lacks in speed and explosiveness he has elite vision and that’s hard to teach.
Random Jordan Howard thoughts... by Jack Handey. :-P
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ramentaschen
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:40 pm

I wouldn’t trade him, especially with one year left on his relatively cheap contract.


That being said, he is not being used to his full potential under Nagy.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:54 am

Nagy needs to figure out a way to use Howard and get a running game in his scheme. Philly had the razzle-dazzle figured out and shut that down on Sunday, yet #24 only got 10 touches. Because Howard is not this loud, demonstrable a-hole, it's easy to dismiss what he brings to the table. Don't forget this guy broke Matt Forte's rookie record, rushing for over 1300 yards even though he didn't start until the fourth game of the season. We saw him pick up so many blitzing linebackers this season who would have otherwise slaughtered Trubisky. The way Nagy has used him in the game has kind of hurt his effectiveness this year, because he puts him in (when he's not putting in Mizzell or Cunningham, wtf) when it's clear that the intent is to run the ball, and still he picks up first. If Nagy would actually use a backfield of Howard and Cohen frequently, teams would have no idea what the hell to expect, which would benefit the Bears tremendously.
Last edited by Dardango on Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Umbali
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:50 am

VA_Mountain_Bear wrote:I love me some Howard. If Nagy goes more to the blocking schemes of the last 1/4 of the season over the first 3/4 he can do better. But, don't flame me for this, if Kareem Hunt can be cleared to join a team again I'd take him over Howard with no second thoughts. He would literally be the perfect back for this offense. Can you imagine him and Cohen together?
Hunt can be our kicker too! No more Parkey! 2 birds one stone!
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The Marshall Plan
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:19 am

Howard's performance improved when we switched to a zone blocking scheme later in the season. He only got 10 carries in the one playoff game we had so its hard to evaluate that.

That being said, we need to keep that defense together as long as possible. Nagy's offense is also one where we don't need an $8 million RB. We do need more of a dual threat and we can get that through the draft.

If Howard gets dealt it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's successful at the new team.
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cblaz11
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:37 am

I’d take a high 3rd rd pick for him. If someone offers a 2, done.

I love Howard, but he’s just not elite. His numbers are going to get him more money then I feel he’s worth...Because of that, if we can move him, do it.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:18 am

Umbali wrote:
VA_Mountain_Bear wrote:I love me some Howard. If Nagy goes more to the blocking schemes of the last 1/4 of the season over the first 3/4 he can do better. But, don't flame me for this, if Kareem Hunt can be cleared to join a team again I'd take him over Howard with no second thoughts. He would literally be the perfect back for this offense. Can you imagine him and Cohen together?
Hunt can be our kicker too! No more Parkey! 2 birds one stone!
Oohhh. Damn that was a bad/good one. I don't know if I should laugh or facepalm. :rofl: :-o
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Bears Whiskey Nut
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:43 am

I wouldn't trade him, and here's why. The chances of going out and drafting a RB, with Howard's vision and zone running ability, somewhere in the 5th round again are about slim and none. The best teams in the league are well balanced and keep the defense on their toes. I love Cohen, but he is a gadget. He is best utilized out of the backfield on wheel routes and screens. He can run, but not in order to soften up a defensive line. Howard is a zone running back, that runs downhill, and over defenders. In the right scheme, he eats up 4-7 yards a play without breaking a sweat. He may not be able to take one to the house, but let me ask you this;

If he breaks off a 25 yard run, and gets caught. How is that any different than Robinson catching a 25 yard pass and getting run out of bounds or tackled? Both are big chunk plays, that make the defense have to account for someone.

I don't care that when he breaks free and gets into the open field that he can't take it to the house. I care that he CAN break free, and balances out the offense. Much more so than Cohen ever could. I also believe that Nagy can rework the offense to make zone blocking the primary running scheme. Additionally he is still on his rookie deal next year, and we need the cap space.
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wab
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:48 am

Even if the Bears do keep him for one more season, I just don't see any way the extend him. So if someone come calling with a 2nd round pick in a draft where the Bears don't pick until the low 80's...why shouldn't they take it? Especially if he's just going to walk later.

It's not a great FA class...but there are guys out there that fit this offense. Mike Davis, Tevin Coleman, Corey Grant. It's clear this offense is going to feature Cohen.

I guess I just really like Howard and feel he deserves to be on a team that won't waste him.
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Mikefive
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:37 am

I really agree with this...
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:... The best teams in the league are well balanced and keep the defense on their toes. I love Cohen, but he is a gadget. He is best utilized out of the backfield on wheel routes and screens. He can run, but not in order to soften up a defensive line. Howard is a zone running back, that runs downhill, and over defenders. In the right scheme, he eats up 4-7 yards a play without breaking a sweat. He may not be able to take one to the house, but let me ask you this;

If he breaks off a 25 yard run, and gets caught. How is that any different than Robinson catching a 25 yard pass and getting run out of bounds or tackled? Both are big chunk plays, that make the defense have to account for someone.

I don't care that when he breaks free and gets into the open field that he can't take it to the house. I care that he CAN break free, and balances out the offense. Much more so than Cohen ever could. I also believe that Nagy can rework the offense to make zone blocking the primary running scheme. Additionally he is still on his rookie deal next year, and we need the cap space.
But I'm also on board here...
wab wrote:Even if the Bears do keep him for one more season, I just don't see any way the extend him. So if someone come calling with a 2nd round pick in a draft where the Bears don't pick until the low 80's...why shouldn't they take it? Especially if he's just going to walk later......

I guess I just really like Howard and feel he deserves to be on a team that won't waste him.
But I think the Bears would be more OK with drafting his replacement in 2020 when they have more draft capital.
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BR0D1E86
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How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:48 pm

I don’t know the Comp pick rules, but aren’t we probably going to get one when he leaves anyway? If so it lessens the reasoning to trade him.
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wab
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:01 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:I don’t know the Comp pick rules, but aren’t we probably going to get one when he leaves anyway? If so it lessens the reasoning to trade him.
Yes, the bears would likely get one. But it depends on a variety of factors. Essentially if the players you lose play more snaps than the players you gain, the higher your compensatory picks become. The highest pick you can gain in the system is a third-rounder, and it comes at the end of the round (after the 96th pick).

So for reference, the highest comp pick last year was the 97th overall pick that the Cardinals got for losing Calais Cambell, D.J. Swearinger and Tony Jefferson.

I'd rather not leave it up to that.
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How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:30 pm

wab wrote:
BR0D1E86 wrote:I don’t know the Comp pick rules, but aren’t we probably going to get one when he leaves anyway? If so it lessens the reasoning to trade him.
Yes, the bears would likely get one. But it depends on a variety of factors. Essentially if the players you lose play more snaps than the players you gain, the higher your compensatory picks become. The highest pick you can gain in the system is a third-rounder, and it comes at the end of the round (after the 96th pick).

So for reference, the highest comp pick last year was the 97th overall pick that the Cardinals got for losing Calais Cambell, D.J. Swearinger and Tony Jefferson.

I'd rather not leave it up to that.
So I guess with that my bargain basement price would be a third. But even then, it depends on what Nagy is going to do. If he’s going to run zone blocking, I’m keeping Howard and letting him run for 1000 yards, then waiting on the comp pick.

If that was a flash in the pan and he’s not going to do it consistently, go ahead and trade him if there’s at least a third out there.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:25 pm

wab wrote:Yes, the bears would likely get one. But it depends on a variety of factors. Essentially if the players you lose play more snaps than the players you gain, the higher your compensatory picks become. The highest pick you can gain in the system is a third-rounder, and it comes at the end of the round (after the 96th pick).

So for reference, the highest comp pick last year was the 97th overall pick that the Cardinals got for losing Calais Cambell, D.J. Swearinger and Tony Jefferson.
I'd rather not leave it up to that.
The new average per year of the contract is the main determining factor in comp picks. Then you apply a factor to the money based off playing time, and then another factor for post season awards. Once you get an adjusted number per year for all free agents, they are ranked into tiers (3rd round, 4th round, etc.) If the Bears lose a 3rd round tier player to another team and we do not sign a 3rd round tier player we would get a 3rd round comp. We will not sign any tier 3 players this offseason and could possible lose Massie, Amos, Lynch, or Callahan to someone else. Any of those 4 would probably get us a 3rd rounder (was about $5M per year last year before the factors were applied). Below is a good explanation of it.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/
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bearsfaninaz
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:26 pm

If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:34 pm

I have mixed feelings, but if you could get an early third, then trade down to later in the round while picking up some other late picks I think you almost have too.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:35 pm

bearsfaninaz wrote:If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.
Why does it matter if he has another gear? A 25 yard gain is a 25 yard gain, through the air or on the ground. They are both great chunk plays.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:51 pm

I think we should keep him and probably let him walk after next year. Good running backs that you can control for up to 5 years are often drafted in rounds 4-5. With the salary for drafted players being what it is why should a team invest 7-8 mil on Jordan and give up a high draft choice-thus I voted round 6. Secondly the salary scale for running backs has been historically low. Bell will somewhat determine what the market rate is for this position. Most clubs I think would rather wait to see how the market plays out before trading draft capital this year.
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G08
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:17 am

I like him, a lot, but I still want a more dynamic back as our bell-cow.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:21 am

Z Bear wrote:
wab wrote:Yes, the bears would likely get one. But it depends on a variety of factors. Essentially if the players you lose play more snaps than the players you gain, the higher your compensatory picks become. The highest pick you can gain in the system is a third-rounder, and it comes at the end of the round (after the 96th pick).

So for reference, the highest comp pick last year was the 97th overall pick that the Cardinals got for losing Calais Cambell, D.J. Swearinger and Tony Jefferson.
I'd rather not leave it up to that.
The new average per year of the contract is the main determining factor in comp picks. Then you apply a factor to the money based off playing time, and then another factor for post season awards. Once you get an adjusted number per year for all free agents, they are ranked into tiers (3rd round, 4th round, etc.) If the Bears lose a 3rd round tier player to another team and we do not sign a 3rd round tier player we would get a 3rd round comp. We will not sign any tier 3 players this offseason and could possible lose Massie, Amos, Lynch, or Callahan to someone else. Any of those 4 would probably get us a 3rd rounder (was about $5M per year last year before the factors were applied). Below is a good explanation of it.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/
Very interesting. Thanks for posting that.
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Umbali
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:26 am

Well to fully answer this question I would have to know do they scheme for him the way they did late in the season? He is a valuable resource when used properly. The argument that its easy to trade him for a 3rd and then grab a kid in the draft doesnt make sense to me. If its so easy to find a Howard in the draft why wouldnt the other team find him in the draft and control his contract for 4 to 5 years?

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AZ_Bearfan
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:47 pm

Green Bay has needed a solid RB for years now. Don't let him walk. I'd hate to see him twice a year in a green and piss-yellow jersey.
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The Marshall Plan
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:46 pm

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
bearsfaninaz wrote:If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.
Why does it matter if he has another gear? A 25 yard gain is a 25 yard gain, through the air or on the ground. They are both great chunk plays.
Because that other gear turns a 25 yard run into a TD. He's not a threat at all in the passing game and we need that added dimension.
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Re: How much is Jordan Howard worth to you?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:47 pm

AZ_Bearfan wrote:Green Bay has needed a solid RB for years now. Don't let him walk. I'd hate to see him twice a year in a green and piss-yellow jersey.
I'm not trying to be negative on Jordan Howard because I do like him, but if he went to GB their offense would be easier to predict. If he's in the game, its a run and odds are he's not getting targeted on a pass.
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