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If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.

I have mixed feelings, but if you could get an early third, then trade down to later in the round while picking up some other late picks I think you almost have too.

bearsfaninaz wrote:If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.

Why does it matter if he has another gear? A 25 yard gain is a 25 yard gain, through the air or on the ground. They are both great chunk plays.

I think we should keep him and probably let him walk after next year. Good running backs that you can control for up to 5 years are often drafted in rounds 4-5. With the salary for drafted players being what it is why should a team invest 7-8 mil on Jordan and give up a high draft choice-thus I voted round 6. Secondly the salary scale for running backs has been historically low. Bell will somewhat determine what the market rate is for this position. Most clubs I think would rather wait to see how the market plays out before trading draft capital this year.

I like him, a lot, but I still want a more dynamic back as our bell-cow.

Z Bear wrote:

wab wrote:Yes, the bears would likely get one. But it depends on a variety of factors. Essentially if the players you lose play more snaps than the players you gain, the higher your compensatory picks become. The highest pick you can gain in the system is a third-rounder, and it comes at the end of the round (after the 96th pick).

So for reference, the highest comp pick last year was the 97th overall pick that the Cardinals got for losing Calais Cambell, D.J. Swearinger and Tony Jefferson.
I'd rather not leave it up to that.

The new average per year of the contract is the main determining factor in comp picks. Then you apply a factor to the money based off playing time, and then another factor for post season awards. Once you get an adjusted number per year for all free agents, they are ranked into tiers (3rd round, 4th round, etc.) If the Bears lose a 3rd round tier player to another team and we do not sign a 3rd round tier player we would get a 3rd round comp. We will not sign any tier 3 players this offseason and could possible lose Massie, Amos, Lynch, or Callahan to someone else. Any of those 4 would probably get us a 3rd rounder (was about $5M per year last year before the factors were applied). Below is a good explanation of it.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Very interesting. Thanks for posting that.

Well to fully answer this question I would have to know do they scheme for him the way they did late in the season? He is a valuable resource when used properly. The argument that its easy to trade him for a 3rd and then grab a kid in the draft doesnt make sense to me. If its so easy to find a Howard in the draft why wouldnt the other team find him in the draft and control his contract for 4 to 5 years?

Bird in the hand is better than 2 in the field.

Green Bay has needed a solid RB for years now. Don't let him walk. I'd hate to see him twice a year in a green and piss-yellow jersey.

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:

bearsfaninaz wrote:If Howard just had one more gear to him he'd be great in this offense. He's just a few steps to slow. Love him, but if we could find a more forte type back in draft you get him. I'd keep Howard on team though unless get a 4th or higher. As long as Mizzell is off the dam team that all I care about.

Why does it matter if he has another gear? A 25 yard gain is a 25 yard gain, through the air or on the ground. They are both great chunk plays.

Because that other gear turns a 25 yard run into a TD. He's not a threat at all in the passing game and we need that added dimension.

AZ_Bearfan wrote:Green Bay has needed a solid RB for years now. Don't let him walk. I'd hate to see him twice a year in a green and piss-yellow jersey.

I'm not trying to be negative on Jordan Howard because I do like him, but if he went to GB their offense would be easier to predict. If he's in the game, its a run and odds are he's not getting targeted on a pass.

All of this almost makes me want to see a trade, just to show how terrible an idea it was. The core problem will remain Nagy's pass-happy A.D.D. You can put the second coming of Tony Dorsett back there, but if your coach can't find a clue to use his talents, they don't matter. Say what you want about speed (and #34 was never the fastest guys in the world), Howard is a grinder and there's something to be said about that when the flash and dash gets figured out. Philly proved that they had the Cohen matrix figured for most of the game and absent the late discovery of the double-move by Robinson, Nagy was without a strong alternative route. Also, the way Nagy likes to pass, you better have a back who can put a hat on a linebacker, when one breaks through the way Howard does consistently. Despite all the talk of physical attributes, the guy is a top-six running back in this league who beat out Jeremy Langford and Kadeem Carey, that Nagy routinely chucked aside to put Mizzell and Cunningham on the field. If that makes any kind of sense to anyone, I say trade the guy to some team that recognizes his value and abilities.

A well-written analysis of the point on Nagy and the running game: https://www.daily-chronicle.com/2018/12/04/hub-arkush-giants-didnt-stop-bears-run-game-nagy-did/amkeytg/

Dardango wrote:All of this almost makes me want to see a trade, just to show how terrible an idea it was. The core problem will remain Nagy's pass-happy A.D.D. You can put the second coming of Tony Dorsett back there, but if your coach can't find a clue to use his talents, they don't matter. Say what you want about speed (and #34 was never the fastest guys in the world), Howard is a grinder and there's something to be said about that when the flash and dash gets figured out. Philly proved that they had the Cohen matrix figured for most of the game and absent the late discovery of the double-move by Robinson, Nagy was without a strong alternative route. Also, the way Nagy likes to pass, you better have a back who can put a hat on a linebacker, when one breaks through the way Howard does consistently. Despite all the talk of physical attributes, the guy is a top-six running back in this league who beat out Jeremy Langford and Kadeem Carey, that Nagy routinely chucked aside to put Mizzell and Cunningham on the field. If that makes any kind of sense to anyone, I say trade the guy to some team that recognizes his value and abilities.

But, if that's the way they are going to use a back, why wouldn't you trade him if you needed picks? Just saying.

I love howard and I think he is vital. I just don't know if Nagy thinks that way and I also believe he would like a main back that is a little more fluid catching out of the backfield and explosive.

If Nagy committed to the run, I'd want to not only keep Howard, but also extend him now for 3-4 more years.

Nagy's use of RB's show his philosophy towards running in general. We know that Mizzell shouldn't touch the ball but he's in there when Howard or Cohen would be much better suited to the various plays that Mizzel sees action in. If Nagy truly wants a committee, then Howard is being wasted and will leave when he has the chance so I'd jump at the chance to get a pick in the 2-3 range for him this year.

The Marshall Plan wrote:I'm not trying to be negative on Jordan Howard because I do like him, but if he went to GB their offense would be easier to predict. If he's in the game, its a run and odds are he's not getting targeted on a pass.

Yeah, that's probably more realistic. I just feel like a pounder would open up the play action game for Erin and I really don't want to see that.

Keep him since there is no need to trade to him. Nagy just needs to learn how to be more committed to the running the ball with Howard. In other quit getting cute by bringing Mizzell in to try and confuse peeps. Let Howard run to the outside so peeps don't crash the box everytime he gets the damn ball.

Jason La Confora is reporting that Pace is actively shopping Howard at the combine

I trust pace. If he trades him and gets a replacement via draft pick like a 3rd or 4th I am fine with it.

Jason La Confora is literally the worst source for Bears related news.

I think Howard can still be an effective functioning piece of this offense even if his role changes from the traditional one he is used to ... and for that reason, I voted not to trade him

but if Nagy and Pace think otherwise, I of course would not argue that, and would expect them to get the most for him they could in a trade ... out of respect for Howard, it would be nice if he does leave to get sent to where he can flourish rather than just dumping him

He was only targeted 26x. He had 20 receptions, 76% catch rate. I remember a few passes not being the best (incompletions). He looked to have better hands. I think he could be used more in the passing game and he would not be so predictable. I think Nagy just needs to try to put him in different situations.

I know the team doesn't get off the bus running, but if they do not get as tough as an inside runner as Howard is, it will affect the team in certain situations.

It seems Nagy's offense and even Helfrich's Oregon offense was built on stretching the field laterally and confusing the defense. Nagy is looking to make the linebackers freeze, and he wants his running back to take advantage of that indecision by hitting holes fast.

It seems Howard as a slower zone cutback runner needs the linebackers to attack and over pursue opening cutback in order to get big gains.

If the above is correct then making Howard more effective is in conflict with making the offense the most effective? I'm still in favor of keeping Howard this season because I don't think there is actual value in trading him and his catching and pass blocking definitely has improved.

I would trade Howard for a third round pick simply because I think there will some RBs available then that would make good replacements for him, and he's going to be coming out of contract in another year anyway.

That said, if I were another team I wouldn't trade him for a third round pick for exactly the same reason.

Howard's biggest attributes are patience and vision. He's great at waiting for holes to develop...not so great at anticipating that they WILL develop and hitting the hole as it opens (which is why he had a lot of tackles behind the line and ran into the backs of a lot of his linemen).

As much as I like Howard if Nagy and pace see him as an impediment to the offense I think his 3.7 ypc is very replaceable via the draft.

I picked a 3rd round because that’s what I feel is a fair value. The other question is if/when it happens who do you replace him with?

I really don't see the Bears getting a 3rd back. If they are shopping him, it almost comes across as desparate. Can't see any team offering a 3rd. A 5th maybe and the Bears should NOT take it.

I don't see the Bears shopping Howard, but if they did move him, a 3rd would be a rich haul. I think that's how negotiations would start, but not where they would finish.

I don’t think Howard is going anywhere either but it does make some sense if they were trying to get the most value out of him before moving on, that would be now. A 3rd is fair and isn’t asking to much for a player that can stay healthy, averages 4.3 YPC and 8 TDs a year. For how innovative Nagy is, it’s nuts to think he can’t figure out how to use him. Or is it he’s just to stubborn?

I would suspect the 3rd is the starting point because that's realistically the highest comp pick they could get. Why move him for less?