OLB Aaron Lynch returns to Bears on 1yr deal

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Haven’t found terms yet. He’s back!
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Umbali
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I am glad to hear this. I really like him and hope he can have a bigger impact this year.
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Good news!
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Good move. Were there any reports I missed, or did he keep his “weight issues” in check last year?
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I had him pegged to follow Fangio to Denver for some reason.
He must feel he has a better chance to start here or at least be in a higher volume rotation
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Good news. I think he's our best bench OLB now.
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If he has a good year I think Lynch could be a decent long term signing. He is actually younger than Floyd and was more productive his seasons as a starter in the past with sacks and QB hits than Floyd.

Floyd is ok, just not impressive or consistent. He is putting up MLB/ILB sack stats, QB pressure stats and low tackle numbers at OLB on a defense that should set him up to see constant one on one matchups. He is definitely better in coverage though.

Maybe Floyd will break out this season, but I struggle with teams giving big contracts to guys who have underperformed the majority of their deals.
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Another good signing
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I like this. We were mighty thin behind Floyd and Mack, and after exercising the 5th year option on Floyd it gives us the chance to sign whichever one ultimately fits best in Pagano's system after the season.
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I figured a 2nd/3rd tier FA after the draft was possible if they got shut out, but I'm kind of surprised they moved on this before the draft.

There's some promising R3/4 guys out there, but the position is pretty full after this.
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wab
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Not sure why people are suddenly down on Floyd...

Still, I like having Lynch back. I had read somewhere that he was playing at around 255 last year and not the 275 he was listed at.
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wab wrote:Not sure why people are suddenly down on Floyd...
fan expectations of what Floyd should be do not match with what the Bears are making him responsible to do ... so of course that is Floyd's fault
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I didn't like the Lynch signing first time around. But the guy has grown on me. He's a dog and I think an important locker room guy for the d-line.
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Good move all around.
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What percentage of the time do they drop Floyd in coverage or otherwise direct him not to rush the passer? If it's half the time, I'm fine with his 4 sacks to go with a hand injury. If it's 20% of the time, I don't think so. Either way, the guy IS hurt every year.
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Boris13c wrote:
wab wrote:Not sure why people are suddenly down on Floyd...
fan expectations of what Floyd should be do not match with what the Bears are making him responsible to do ... so of course that is Floyd's fault
He is a top end draft pick at pass rusher that isn’t producing sacks. He rushed the passer a little over 80% of his snaps.

He did come on the end of last year, but based off his 3 years of work is he worth 12-13 million on a 5th year option for a team in a bit of a cap crunch?

Plus Lynch played less than half the snaps, got nearly as many tackles and 1 shy of Floyd on sacks.
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southdakbearfan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:
wab wrote:Not sure why people are suddenly down on Floyd...
fan expectations of what Floyd should be do not match with what the Bears are making him responsible to do ... so of course that is Floyd's fault
He is a top end draft pick at pass rusher that isn’t producing sacks. He rushed the passer a little over 80% of his snaps.

He did come on the end of last year, but based off his 3 years of work is he worth 12-13 million on a 5th year option for a team in a bit of a cap crunch?

Plus Lynch played less than half the snaps, got nearly as many tackles and 1 shy of Floyd on sacks.
That is simply NOT true. Think about it. We run a 3-4. Mack and Floyd are OLBs. What percentage do you think that Mack rushed? The three man defensive line? So if Floyd was rushing over 80% of the time, discounting the times that Mack didn't rush (10-15%) and a DL dropped into coverage (maybe 5% if that) than you're talking about us being in some kind of blitz package well over 70% of the time. That did NOT happen.

I think that Floyd had a far bigger contribution than anybody on this board is giving him credit for. He dropped into coverage a lot, and he was good at it. He was basically the Joker for our defense. He's huge to our team. I have no problem whatsoever giving him the fifth year option or even better, signing him a long term contract.
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80.18% by what I could find as recent March from multiple articles. Factor in times mack dropped into coverage, which was too high and subs on the field.

But it is a hard stat to track down and most only count if it’s on a passing play vs a run.

The 3-4 looks a lot like a 5-2 on a high percentage of downs anymore.
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Do we really need to spend $12M / year plus on an OLB whose primary responsibility is to drop into coverage? Does that also require using a 1st round pick to do so?

I think we should move on from Floyd and if we want to extend an existing player let's get Eddie Jackson under a longer contract.
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Yogi da Bear wrote:
southdakbearfan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:
wab wrote:Not sure why people are suddenly down on Floyd...
fan expectations of what Floyd should be do not match with what the Bears are making him responsible to do ... so of course that is Floyd's fault
He is a top end draft pick at pass rusher that isn’t producing sacks. He rushed the passer a little over 80% of his snaps.

He did come on the end of last year, but based off his 3 years of work is he worth 12-13 million on a 5th year option for a team in a bit of a cap crunch?

Plus Lynch played less than half the snaps, got nearly as many tackles and 1 shy of Floyd on sacks.


I think that Floyd had a far bigger contribution than anybody on this board is giving him credit for. He dropped into coverage a lot, and he was good at it. He was basically the Joker for our defense. He's huge to our team. I have no problem whatsoever giving him the fifth year option or even better, signing him a long term contract.
I am not actually down on him as I was. He is very good against the run. Ok damn good against the run.
BUT
He sucked in coverage. Still not sure why he was asked to do it as much as he was. He actually had his moments in rushing the passer as well. Sacks he didn't get but he did put pressure on the QB and sometimes that is just as good as a sack.
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southdakbearfan wrote:If he has a good year I think Lynch could be a decent long term signing. He is actually younger than Floyd and was more productive his seasons as a starter in the past with sacks and QB hits than Floyd.

Floyd is ok, just not impressive or consistent. He is putting up MLB/ILB sack stats, QB pressure stats and low tackle numbers at OLB on a defense that should set him up to see constant one on one matchups. He is definitely better in coverage though.

Maybe Floyd will break out this season, but I struggle with teams giving big contracts to guys who have underperformed the majority of their deals.
I am not a 100% convinced he shouldnt be the started and Floyd should come in off the bench.
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Here is what I liked from Lynch.

He is a talent, there is no doubt about that. I think he can be a solid OLB rotation guy.

When he got his personal foul last year for being a douchebag on the field, he reacted the way I would want him to. He was contrite, and he followed the leadership of the team. I think he could be in line for a great season. He has both his mind and body in the right place. Good stuff.
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southdakbearfan wrote:80.18% by what I could find as recent March from multiple articles. Factor in times mack dropped into coverage, which was too high and subs on the field.

But it is a hard stat to track down and most only count if it’s on a passing play vs a run.

The 3-4 looks a lot like a 5-2 on a high percentage of downs anymore.
I don't know what sources your getting that figure from, but I haven't seen it, nor do I believe it. The Bears blitzed the second fewest in the league last year at 10.7%. NFL Blitz Percentage If both Mack and Floyd are blitzing more than 80% of the time, that blitz percentage would have to be up over 30-40%. The numbers simply don't add up.

Floyd played the first half of the season with a broken hand. 33 of his tackles and all five of his sacks came in his last ten games of the season (including the playoff game). That comes out to 53 tackles and 8 sacks for a year. Those are good numbers for an OLB playing opposite Mack. Remember Floyd's stuff of Gurley in Ram game around the goal line. Mack and Floyd lining up side by side reminded me of Buddy Ryan lining up Otis Wilson and Wilbur Marshall side by side. I want to see more of that.

Floyd is just starting to come into his own. I'll leave you with this clip of Floyd's from this past season. Notice how much his strength has increased from his first two years. Floyd's 2018 Highlights

Floyd's just scratching the surface of his potential and just starting to come into his own. Mack is the catalyst on our defense, but Floyd is one of the critical chemicals he reacts with that makes our defense so dangerous. I wouldn't even think of letting him go.
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Yogi da Bear wrote:
southdakbearfan wrote:80.18% by what I could find as recent March from multiple articles. Factor in times mack dropped into coverage, which was too high and subs on the field.

But it is a hard stat to track down and most only count if it’s on a passing play vs a run.

The 3-4 looks a lot like a 5-2 on a high percentage of downs anymore.
I don't know what sources your getting that figure from, but I haven't seen it, nor do I believe it. The Bears blitzed the second fewest in the league last year at 10.7%. NFL Blitz Percentage If both Mack and Floyd are blitzing more than 80% of the time, that blitz percentage would have to be up over 30-40%. The numbers simply don't add up.

Floyd played the first half of the season with a broken hand. 33 of his tackles and all five of his sacks came in his last ten games of the season (including the playoff game). That comes out to 53 tackles and 8 sacks for a year. Those are good numbers for an OLB playing opposite Mack. Remember Floyd's stuff of Gurley in Ram game around the goal line. Mack and Floyd lining up side by side reminded me of Buddy Ryan lining up Otis Wilson and Wilbur Marshall side by side. I want to see more of that.

Floyd is just starting to come into his own. I'll leave you with this clip of Floyd's from this past season. Notice how much his strength has increased from his first two years. Floyd's 2018 Highlights

Floyd's just scratching the surface of his potential and just starting to come into his own. Mack is the catalyst on our defense, but Floyd is one of the critical chemicals he reacts with that makes our defense so dangerous. I wouldn't even think of letting him go.
Well 3 separate articles put it between 80 and 84%. Like I said they only count passing downs. Between Mack dropping into coverage some of the time, line stunts/zone blitz which don't count as a blitz if a lineman drops and a lineman coming out on passing downs it’s very possible. Just because Floyd rushed the passer doesn't mean it is counted as a blitz. If he did drop into coverage as much as you are implying, he would have way more than 8 pass defenses in 3 seasons (nfl.com stats).

As far as Floyd's production goes. 15.5 sacks in 3 seasons and low tackle totals are his reality at this point. Heck 85 players have posted as many or more sacks the past two seasons than Floyd and the tackle numbers are way worse. He has also missed 10 games in 3 seasons.

He did come on at the end of last season and Pagano's history suggests that he will rush the passer even more on passing downs given what he did with the ravens as DC. This in itself could play a huge role in it as he may not be asked to cover near as much, so he would then need to improve on the sack and tackle totals a lot.

I am not saying he isn't a decent player and a good fit for this defense (at least the way Fangio ran it). I am saying if he continues to produce at a similar level to what he has his first 3 seasons he is nowhere near worth what his 5th year option costs, especially for a team that will be up against the cap and needing to be judicious with the contracts they hand out.
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Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.
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Floyd did not look good the first 6 games of the year and I suspect it was in large part due to the injured hand. That said, he was a difference maker the second half of the season. Stats are important, but for defensive lineman, you have to pass the eye test. Floyd did that IMO.

My main concern with paying Floyd long term is his health, that makes me nervous. He simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I’d be willing to extend him at about 11 mill per that has extra incentives allowing him to get up to 14-15 mill. That said, the Packers just gave Z Smith 16 mill per and Preston 13 mill..I’m sure Floyd sees that and will be using those deals as bargaining chips.
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Yogi da Bear wrote:Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.
https://sportsmockery.com/2019/03/why-c ... kout-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Discusses Floyds 80.18 percent pass rush rate over 3 seasons with Fangio (didn't realize it was 3 seasons), differences between Fangio and Pagano and how they use OLB's and pass rushers.

https://www.scout.com/football/nfl/news ... 61110-fvo/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's trends and rankings in comparison to other 3-4 olbs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/leonard-floyd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's snaps

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/10964659 ... 57/photo/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Edge grades NFC north


https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... th-edition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PFF grades since entering the league

Sorry didn't have time to find all of them. Like i said pass rush percentage is a muddled stat as most articles only count downs when the offense is passing when figuring blitz and pass rush percentages. With guys like Goldman only playing 55 percent of the downs, most obvious passing downs the alignment was Mack, Hicks, A various assortment of personnel between Goldman - Nichols - RRH - Bullard in the third spot, and Floyd as the 4th pass rusher. Then the 2 ilb's and 5 db's.
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S Deandre Houston-Carson & LS Patrick Scales both signed for the 3 year vet. minimum $720,000, guessing small bonus for both (~$20k)

OLB Aaron Lynch $1M base salary, $250k signing bonus. $1,453,125 2019 cap hit per @kfishbain

Bears 2019 cap space around $17.7 million
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I like Floyd, that said, if guys like Lynch are available for 1.5 m. . .

I mean, what are we even arguing about?!?!?! I'd love to have a Porsche but if I can buy an equivalent Mercedes for 10% the cost of the Porsche. . .

We already have the Bugatti in the garage for a while.
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Bad Flanders wrote:I like Floyd, that said, if guys like Lynch are available for 1.5 m. . .

I mean, what are we even arguing about?!?!?! I'd love to have a Porsche but if I can buy an equivalent Mercedes for 10% the cost of the Porsche. . .

We already have the Bugatti in the garage for a while.
BTW, in this analogy, what is Parkey? Like roller skates?
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