OLB Aaron Lynch returns to Bears on 1yr deal

For all things Chicago Bears

Moderator: wab

User avatar
Otis Day
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8061
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:43 pm
Location: Armpit of IL.
Has thanked: 120 times
Been thanked: 306 times

Maybe roller SKATE!! He is not worthy of being a complete set. Hell, maybe a one wheeled scooter.
BR0D1E86
MVP
Posts: 1833
Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:50 am

That’s a crazy good price for Lynch. He’s a contributor.
User avatar
Yogi da Bear
Head Coach
Posts: 2499
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:43 pm
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 359 times

southdakbearfan wrote:
Yogi da Bear wrote:Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.
https://sportsmockery.com/2019/03/why-c ... kout-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Discusses Floyds 80.18 percent pass rush rate over 3 seasons with Fangio (didn't realize it was 3 seasons), differences between Fangio and Pagano and how they use OLB's and pass rushers.

https://www.scout.com/football/nfl/news ... 61110-fvo/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's trends and rankings in comparison to other 3-4 olbs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/leonard-floyd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's snaps

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/10964659 ... 57/photo/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Edge grades NFC north


https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... th-edition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PFF grades since entering the league

Sorry didn't have time to find all of them. Like i said pass rush percentage is a muddled stat as most articles only count downs when the offense is passing when figuring blitz and pass rush percentages. With guys like Goldman only playing 55 percent of the downs, most obvious passing downs the alignment was Mack, Hicks, A various assortment of personnel between Goldman - Nichols - RRH - Bullard in the third spot, and Floyd as the 4th pass rusher. Then the 2 ilb's and 5 db's.
Thanks again SDBF. It's good to see context. I'd like to make a few comments on the links you provided though.

First, be very, very careful quoting anything that has to do with PFF. Personally, I think it's a completely bogus site, and have since it started, but I understand there are a few that give it credence. This links illustrate perfectly why I believe their stats are so bogus. It's like they out smart themselves.

For instance, I like Aaron Lynch and am ecstatic we signed him. But does anybody here seriously believe that he performed better than either Floyd or Roquan last year? I mean REALLY? And that's not even the worst of it. How about Kevin White? Who in their right mind could think that he performed better at any point in time than Anthony Miller? Are you friggin' kiddin' me? Miller had more TDs by his second game (that would be ONE) than White had in four flippin' years. And which of his 15 bubble screens (out of 25 total completions) were you most impressed with? But they don't just have White graded above Miller, but Daniels too, and they have him about beating out Trubs. Man, I'm embarrassed for them.

Second, I can believe that Floyd rushed 80% of the time, when he was our number one outside threat, but not once Mack got here. I simply don't believe it. I'd like to throw some numbers out here for you. Now, I realize that there are a lot of things wrong with these numbers being totally accurate, like Floyd not playing every single game or not playing every single defensive snap of every game he did play in and teams maybe throwing more in a game where he was out then those in which he played. But this will give you a kind of a baseline of an idea of the magnitude of what they're talking about.

In the last three years, Bears opponents have thrown 1674 times against us. That's 34.875 times a game. To rush on 80% of those, a player playing every single defensive play these past three years would have had to rush 27.9 times a game. And in just the past year, the Bears were thrown against 615 times. That comes out to 38.44 times a game. If Floyd played every singe defensive snap, for him to have rushed 80% of the time, he would have had to rush 31 times a game! Do you think he even came close to approaching that number?

In fact, let's look at a quote from that same article:
Floyd was allowed to rush the passer at least 25 times in 25 career games. He has 15 sacks in those games according to Pro Football Focus. In the remaining 14 games he’s played? He has four sacks. It’s clear he’s far more productive when he’s allowed to attack the quarterback with greater consistency. He simply can’t find a rhythm when asked to drop into coverage frequently.
So when he actually did rush approaching 80% of the time and over, he had 15 of his 19 sacks.

Finally, I disagree with many that Floyd was brought in primarily as a rush OLB ala a Lawrence Taylor. I don't think he was brought in as a glorified defensive end playing OLB in a 3-4. I think he was brought in as a true 3-4 OLB, one who drops in coverage or rushes depending on the situation and what you're doing with the other OLB. Even in college, Floyd never had really great sack stats. He was used all over the place. Pretty much how he's used for us now.

I think it would be a huge mistake to let this guy get away.
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4600
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 328 times

He just isn't worth 12-14 million dollars for what he is doing. He doesn't pile up tackles, sacks or any other stats at this point and he is definitely the 3rd or 4th best linebacker on the team.

He sure isn't better than smith, mack or trevathon and lynch may very well be a better fit for what pagano does as his history suggests that he both blitz's and rushes both his linebackers much more than fangio does.

If they extended him for around 7 million pya and made it a smart contract I could see it, but with the personnel coming due in the near future for this team even that could be very tough to fit in, especially if they intend to keep trevathon past this season. If spotrac is correct and over the cap they have roughly 12 million in space for 2020 unless they cut people, that's without floyd/trevathon or extending guys like whitehair. Tough decisions are coming and unless he makes a quantum leap Floyd is going to be a luxury.

Oh, and Pace's first comment was about his speed, athleticism, lining up all over and that he definitely would help our pass rush, in his press conference after drafting Floyd.
cblaz11
MVP
Posts: 1272
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 7:02 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 111 times

I’m torn....I value Floyd, but he is simply not an elite pass rusher. That said, the guy was an impact player last year. Also, his ability to do everything allows us to mix up our coverages and blitz schemes.

7 million per year is delusional...Floyd hits the open market, he’s cashing in. I’d be stunned if he gets less then 14 mill per year on the open market. I’d be ok if the Bears locked him up at 11-13 per with heavy incentives around playing time.

In all reality, I’d make him play the last year of his deal, prove he can put it together for a complete year, try to lock him up on a team friendly deal...If he doesn’t bite and you don’t wanna invest just yet, tag him and make him do it again.
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8411
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Parts Unknown
Has thanked: 909 times
Been thanked: 1277 times

cblaz11 wrote:I’m torn....I value Floyd, but he is simply not an elite pass rusher. That said, the guy was an impact player last year. Also, his ability to do everything allows us to mix up our coverages and blitz schemes.

7 million per year is delusional...Floyd hits the open market, he’s cashing in. I’d be stunned if he gets less then 14 mill per year on the open market. I’d be ok if the Bears locked him up at 11-13 per with heavy incentives around playing time.

In all reality, I’d make him play the last year of his deal, prove he can put it together for a complete year, try to lock him up on a team friendly deal...If he doesn’t bite and you don’t wanna invest just yet, tag him and make him do it again.
Floyd played opposite Mack last year. I'm sure that helped.
Image
User avatar
Yogi da Bear
Head Coach
Posts: 2499
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:43 pm
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 359 times

southdakbearfan wrote:He just isn't worth 12-14 million dollars for what he is doing. He doesn't pile up tackles, sacks or any other stats at this point and he is definitely the 3rd or 4th best linebacker on the team.

He sure isn't better than smith, mack or trevathon and lynch may very well be a better fit for what pagano does as his history suggests that he both blitz's and rushes both his linebackers much more than fangio does.

If they extended him for around 7 million pya and made it a smart contract I could see it, but with the personnel coming due in the near future for this team even that could be very tough to fit in, especially if they intend to keep trevathon past this season. If spotrac is correct and over the cap they have roughly 12 million in space for 2020 unless they cut people, that's without floyd/trevathon or extending guys like whitehair. Tough decisions are coming and unless he makes a quantum leap Floyd is going to be a luxury.

Oh, and Pace's first comment was about his speed, athleticism, lining up all over and that he definitely would help our pass rush, in his press conference after drafting Floyd.
Wow. Not better than Trevathan and Lynch is a better fit and he's only worth 7 mill per? I really don't know how to respond except to say that you have a very obvious bias and animus against him for whatever reason. So you should be pleased to discover that the Bears are going to exercise their fifth year option on Floyd and pay him upwards of 13 mill per. Floyd's Fifth Year Option :backout:

Cblaz: I think that his pass rush is still developing and with Mack around teaching him moves, it's going to improve by leaps and bounds. I already love how his strength has improved (that was his biggest weakness coming out). Look at how he just demolishes the Seattle tackle at :50 mark of this highlight.Floyd Highlights 2018 You're right, his biggest problem has been the injury bug, which he seems to be working his way through. At least he's learned how to tackle with his head up. Tackling with his head down is what caused the neck injury as a rookie.

Playing opposite Mack obviously helps a ton, but it can also hurt your personal stats as Mack will snag sacks from you. Check out how many times Mack gets to the QB just before somebody else does in this clip. 2018 Bear Defense Highlights God I love it. Reminds me so much of the '85 team. We should have been Super Bowl bound last year. Damn you Parkey! :angry:
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4600
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 328 times

So. Who are you going to cut to sign him to that huge contract is the question with Trubisky and others coming due. Are you going to bail on offensive lineman. Cut dbs, not extend Jackson, cut hicks, cut Robinson or what? The bill comes due and can only be pushed so far down the road. Right now they are 12 million below 2020 estimated cap with whitehair, Jackson, Floyd, trevathon, RRH and others coming up for free agency.

In 3 seasons Floyd has done nothing to justify a contract like that and has missed over 20% of the games. This is Jordan Howard with way less production and way more injuries.

Oh and as long as Floyd is healthy they can cut him with no cost before the next league year. Picking up the 5th year option is a chip to bargain with Floyd if they want a long term deal.

And I said he is third or fourth best. He is most definitely behind smith and Mack. Arguably less important than trevathon. If he goes down Lynch can handle it. If trevathon goes down we have kwit starting which would suck.
cblaz11
MVP
Posts: 1272
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 7:02 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 111 times

I just realized that Floyd is currently locked up for two more years...that makes this decision easy. Let’s see what he does next year and possibly the year after before we extend him.
User avatar
Umbali
MVP
Posts: 1042
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:32 pm
Has thanked: 41 times
Been thanked: 83 times

For me after next year, if Floyd doesnt show huge growth and consistency ( which requires being on the field ) then show him the door. Get a compensatory pick for him if possible and draft a kid. A half decent pass rusher should be able to produce with Mack on the other side and Hicks and Goldman in the middle. I would take more of Belichick approach to it. The good teams know how to get those extra picks and Floyd would probably produce on if we view him as too expensive.

I like him but I dont love him.
Fantasy Team: Peanut Punchers
cblaz11
MVP
Posts: 1272
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 7:02 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 111 times

I think we already picked up the 5th year option which means we’re stuck with him through 2020 whether we want him or not.

I’m sold on Floyd’s ability...it’s his durability that is preventing me from paying him.
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4600
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 328 times

cblaz11 wrote:I think we already picked up the 5th year option which means we’re stuck with him through 2020 whether we want him or not.

I’m sold on Floyd’s ability...it’s his durability that is preventing me from paying him.
That is incorrect. It is only guaranteed for injury if they release him prior to the start of the league year. So unless he is injured going into the offseason they have until the start of the league year to decide.
cblaz11
MVP
Posts: 1272
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 7:02 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 111 times

Honestly, I’m not sure how the 5th year option works. That said, I thought it was fully guaranteed.
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4600
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 328 times

cblaz11 wrote:Honestly, I’m not sure how the 5th year option works. That said, I thought it was fully guaranteed.
If they are unijured going into the offseason prior to the 5th season they can be released prior to the start of the league year with 0 cap hit. At the start of the league year the contract becomes fully guaranteed. Teams can also negotiate an extension prior to the 5th year option even if they have picked it up.

The risk is, if he gets injured seriously or late in the year and he cannot pass a physical after the 19 season you are stuck with a big price for nothing in 20 as it is guaranteed against injury only prior to the league year starting, but the team also gets 1 extra year of control so it's a two way street and there is incentive for the player to negotiate a long term extension.

I don't hate floyd, quite the opposite. I just realize there are a lot of good players on this team and some tough decisions to come ahead. It's a no-brainer to extend a lot of them if the cap space was there but the reality is they are going to have to pay a QB and we have stuck a lot of money longer term in quite a few players, so quite a few of of the rest will probably be let go. You can only extend, convert and defer so long before you get in really big trouble with the cap and then have to go through a season where everyone gets let go (cap hell).
Post Reply