OLB Aaron Lynch returns to Bears on 1yr deal

[Umbali]

If he has a good year I think Lynch could be a decent long term signing. He is actually younger than Floyd and was more productive his seasons as a starter in the past with sacks and QB hits than Floyd.

Floyd is ok, just not impressive or consistent. He is putting up MLB/ILB sack stats, QB pressure stats and low tackle numbers at OLB on a defense that should set him up to see constant one on one matchups. He is definitely better in coverage though.

Maybe Floyd will break out this season, but I struggle with teams giving big contracts to guys who have underperformed the majority of their deals.

I am not a 100% convinced he shouldnt be the started and Floyd should come in off the bench.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Here is what I liked from Lynch.

He is a talent, there is no doubt about that. I think he can be a solid OLB rotation guy.

When he got his personal foul last year for being a douchebag on the field, he reacted the way I would want him to. He was contrite, and he followed the leadership of the team. I think he could be in line for a great season. He has both his mind and body in the right place. Good stuff.

[Yogi da Bear]

80.18% by what I could find as recent March from multiple articles. Factor in times mack dropped into coverage, which was too high and subs on the field.

But it is a hard stat to track down and most only count if it’s on a passing play vs a run.

The 3-4 looks a lot like a 5-2 on a high percentage of downs anymore.

I don't know what sources your getting that figure from, but I haven't seen it, nor do I believe it. The Bears blitzed the second fewest in the league last year at 10.7%. NFL Blitz Percentage If both Mack and Floyd are blitzing more than 80% of the time, that blitz percentage would have to be up over 30-40%. The numbers simply don't add up.

Floyd played the first half of the season with a broken hand. 33 of his tackles and all five of his sacks came in his last ten games of the season (including the playoff game). That comes out to 53 tackles and 8 sacks for a year. Those are good numbers for an OLB playing opposite Mack. Remember Floyd's stuff of Gurley in Ram game around the goal line. Mack and Floyd lining up side by side reminded me of Buddy Ryan lining up Otis Wilson and Wilbur Marshall side by side. I want to see more of that.

Floyd is just starting to come into his own. I'll leave you with this clip of Floyd's from this past season. Notice how much his strength has increased from his first two years. Floyd's 2018 Highlights

Floyd's just scratching the surface of his potential and just starting to come into his own. Mack is the catalyst on our defense, but Floyd is one of the critical chemicals he reacts with that makes our defense so dangerous. I wouldn't even think of letting him go.

[southdakbearfan]

80.18% by what I could find as recent March from multiple articles. Factor in times mack dropped into coverage, which was too high and subs on the field.

But it is a hard stat to track down and most only count if it’s on a passing play vs a run.

The 3-4 looks a lot like a 5-2 on a high percentage of downs anymore.

I don't know what sources your getting that figure from, but I haven't seen it, nor do I believe it. The Bears blitzed the second fewest in the league last year at 10.7%. NFL Blitz Percentage If both Mack and Floyd are blitzing more than 80% of the time, that blitz percentage would have to be up over 30-40%. The numbers simply don't add up.

Floyd played the first half of the season with a broken hand. 33 of his tackles and all five of his sacks came in his last ten games of the season (including the playoff game). That comes out to 53 tackles and 8 sacks for a year. Those are good numbers for an OLB playing opposite Mack. Remember Floyd's stuff of Gurley in Ram game around the goal line. Mack and Floyd lining up side by side reminded me of Buddy Ryan lining up Otis Wilson and Wilbur Marshall side by side. I want to see more of that.

Floyd is just starting to come into his own. I'll leave you with this clip of Floyd's from this past season. Notice how much his strength has increased from his first two years. Floyd's 2018 Highlights

Floyd's just scratching the surface of his potential and just starting to come into his own. Mack is the catalyst on our defense, but Floyd is one of the critical chemicals he reacts with that makes our defense so dangerous. I wouldn't even think of letting him go.

Well 3 separate articles put it between 80 and 84%. Like I said they only count passing downs. Between Mack dropping into coverage some of the time, line stunts/zone blitz which don't count as a blitz if a lineman drops and a lineman coming out on passing downs it’s very possible. Just because Floyd rushed the passer doesn't mean it is counted as a blitz. If he did drop into coverage as much as you are implying, he would have way more than 8 pass defenses in 3 seasons (nfl.com stats).

As far as Floyd's production goes. 15.5 sacks in 3 seasons and low tackle totals are his reality at this point. Heck 85 players have posted as many or more sacks the past two seasons than Floyd and the tackle numbers are way worse. He has also missed 10 games in 3 seasons.

He did come on at the end of last season and Pagano's history suggests that he will rush the passer even more on passing downs given what he did with the ravens as DC. This in itself could play a huge role in it as he may not be asked to cover near as much, so he would then need to improve on the sack and tackle totals a lot.

I am not saying he isn't a decent player and a good fit for this defense (at least the way Fangio ran it). I am saying if he continues to produce at a similar level to what he has his first 3 seasons he is nowhere near worth what his 5th year option costs, especially for a team that will be up against the cap and needing to be judicious with the contracts they hand out.

[Yogi da Bear]

Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.

[cblaz11]

Floyd did not look good the first 6 games of the year and I suspect it was in large part due to the injured hand. That said, he was a difference maker the second half of the season. Stats are important, but for defensive lineman, you have to pass the eye test. Floyd did that IMO.

My main concern with paying Floyd long term is his health, that makes me nervous. He simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I’d be willing to extend him at about 11 mill per that has extra incentives allowing him to get up to 14-15 mill. That said, the Packers just gave Z Smith 16 mill per and Preston 13 mill..I’m sure Floyd sees that and will be using those deals as bargaining chips.

[southdakbearfan]

Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.

https://sportsmockery.com/2019/03/why-c ... kout-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Discusses Floyds 80.18 percent pass rush rate over 3 seasons with Fangio (didn't realize it was 3 seasons), differences between Fangio and Pagano and how they use OLB's and pass rushers.

https://www.scout.com/football/nfl/news ... 61110-fvo/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's trends and rankings in comparison to other 3-4 olbs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/leonard-floyd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's snaps

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/10964659 ... 57/photo/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Edge grades NFC north


https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... th-edition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PFF grades since entering the league

Sorry didn't have time to find all of them. Like i said pass rush percentage is a muddled stat as most articles only count downs when the offense is passing when figuring blitz and pass rush percentages. With guys like Goldman only playing 55 percent of the downs, most obvious passing downs the alignment was Mack, Hicks, A various assortment of personnel between Goldman - Nichols - RRH - Bullard in the third spot, and Floyd as the 4th pass rusher. Then the 2 ilb's and 5 db's.

[UOK]

S Deandre Houston-Carson & LS Patrick Scales both signed for the 3 year vet. minimum $720,000, guessing small bonus for both (~$20k)

OLB Aaron Lynch $1M base salary, $250k signing bonus. $1,453,125 2019 cap hit per @kfishbain

Bears 2019 cap space around $17.7 million

[Bad Flanders]

I like Floyd, that said, if guys like Lynch are available for 1.5 m. . .

I mean, what are we even arguing about?!?!?! I'd love to have a Porsche but if I can buy an equivalent Mercedes for 10% the cost of the Porsche. . .

We already have the Bugatti in the garage for a while.

[Bad Flanders]

I like Floyd, that said, if guys like Lynch are available for 1.5 m. . .

I mean, what are we even arguing about?!?!?! I'd love to have a Porsche but if I can buy an equivalent Mercedes for 10% the cost of the Porsche. . .

We already have the Bugatti in the garage for a while.

BTW, in this analogy, what is Parkey? Like roller skates?

[Otis Day]

Maybe roller SKATE!! He is not worthy of being a complete set. Hell, maybe a one wheeled scooter.

[BR0D1E86]

That’s a crazy good price for Lynch. He’s a contributor.

[Yogi da Bear]

Thanks for your reply SDBF.

Not that I don't believe you, but could you post a link to some of these articles you've read? I would love to see the context in which it was presented.

https://sportsmockery.com/2019/03/why-c ... kout-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Discusses Floyds 80.18 percent pass rush rate over 3 seasons with Fangio (didn't realize it was 3 seasons), differences between Fangio and Pagano and how they use OLB's and pass rushers.

https://www.scout.com/football/nfl/news ... 61110-fvo/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's trends and rankings in comparison to other 3-4 olbs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/leonard-floyd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Floyd's snaps

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/10964659 ... 57/photo/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Edge grades NFC north


https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... th-edition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PFF grades since entering the league

Sorry didn't have time to find all of them. Like i said pass rush percentage is a muddled stat as most articles only count downs when the offense is passing when figuring blitz and pass rush percentages. With guys like Goldman only playing 55 percent of the downs, most obvious passing downs the alignment was Mack, Hicks, A various assortment of personnel between Goldman - Nichols - RRH - Bullard in the third spot, and Floyd as the 4th pass rusher. Then the 2 ilb's and 5 db's.

Thanks again SDBF. It's good to see context. I'd like to make a few comments on the links you provided though.

First, be very, very careful quoting anything that has to do with PFF. Personally, I think it's a completely bogus site, and have since it started, but I understand there are a few that give it credence. This links illustrate perfectly why I believe their stats are so bogus. It's like they out smart themselves.

For instance, I like Aaron Lynch and am ecstatic we signed him. But does anybody here seriously believe that he performed better than either Floyd or Roquan last year? I mean REALLY? And that's not even the worst of it. How about Kevin White? Who in their right mind could think that he performed better at any point in time than Anthony Miller? Are you friggin' kiddin' me? Miller had more TDs by his second game (that would be ONE) than White had in four flippin' years. And which of his 15 bubble screens (out of 25 total completions) were you most impressed with? But they don't just have White graded above Miller, but Daniels too, and they have him about beating out Trubs. Man, I'm embarrassed for them.

Second, I can believe that Floyd rushed 80% of the time, when he was our number one outside threat, but not once Mack got here. I simply don't believe it. I'd like to throw some numbers out here for you. Now, I realize that there are a lot of things wrong with these numbers being totally accurate, like Floyd not playing every single game or not playing every single defensive snap of every game he did play in and teams maybe throwing more in a game where he was out then those in which he played. But this will give you a kind of a baseline of an idea of the magnitude of what they're talking about.

In the last three years, Bears opponents have thrown 1674 times against us. That's 34.875 times a game. To rush on 80% of those, a player playing every single defensive play these past three years would have had to rush 27.9 times a game. And in just the past year, the Bears were thrown against 615 times. That comes out to 38.44 times a game. If Floyd played every singe defensive snap, for him to have rushed 80% of the time, he would have had to rush 31 times a game! Do you think he even came close to approaching that number?

In fact, let's look at a quote from that same article:

Floyd was allowed to rush the passer at least 25 times in 25 career games. He has 15 sacks in those games according to Pro Football Focus. In the remaining 14 games he’s played? He has four sacks. It’s clear he’s far more productive when he’s allowed to attack the quarterback with greater consistency. He simply can’t find a rhythm when asked to drop into coverage frequently.

So when he actually did rush approaching 80% of the time and over, he had 15 of his 19 sacks.

Finally, I disagree with many that Floyd was brought in primarily as a rush OLB ala a Lawrence Taylor. I don't think he was brought in as a glorified defensive end playing OLB in a 3-4. I think he was brought in as a true 3-4 OLB, one who drops in coverage or rushes depending on the situation and what you're doing with the other OLB. Even in college, Floyd never had really great sack stats. He was used all over the place. Pretty much how he's used for us now.

I think it would be a huge mistake to let this guy get away.

[southdakbearfan]

He just isn't worth 12-14 million dollars for what he is doing. He doesn't pile up tackles, sacks or any other stats at this point and he is definitely the 3rd or 4th best linebacker on the team.

He sure isn't better than smith, mack or trevathon and lynch may very well be a better fit for what pagano does as his history suggests that he both blitz's and rushes both his linebackers much more than fangio does.

If they extended him for around 7 million pya and made it a smart contract I could see it, but with the personnel coming due in the near future for this team even that could be very tough to fit in, especially if they intend to keep trevathon past this season. If spotrac is correct and over the cap they have roughly 12 million in space for 2020 unless they cut people, that's without floyd/trevathon or extending guys like whitehair. Tough decisions are coming and unless he makes a quantum leap Floyd is going to be a luxury.

Oh, and Pace's first comment was about his speed, athleticism, lining up all over and that he definitely would help our pass rush, in his press conference after drafting Floyd.

[cblaz11]

I’m torn....I value Floyd, but he is simply not an elite pass rusher. That said, the guy was an impact player last year. Also, his ability to do everything allows us to mix up our coverages and blitz schemes.

7 million per year is delusional...Floyd hits the open market, he’s cashing in. I’d be stunned if he gets less then 14 mill per year on the open market. I’d be ok if the Bears locked him up at 11-13 per with heavy incentives around playing time.

In all reality, I’d make him play the last year of his deal, prove he can put it together for a complete year, try to lock him up on a team friendly deal...If he doesn’t bite and you don’t wanna invest just yet, tag him and make him do it again.

[The Marshall Plan]

I’m torn....I value Floyd, but he is simply not an elite pass rusher. That said, the guy was an impact player last year. Also, his ability to do everything allows us to mix up our coverages and blitz schemes.

7 million per year is delusional...Floyd hits the open market, he’s cashing in. I’d be stunned if he gets less then 14 mill per year on the open market. I’d be ok if the Bears locked him up at 11-13 per with heavy incentives around playing time.

In all reality, I’d make him play the last year of his deal, prove he can put it together for a complete year, try to lock him up on a team friendly deal...If he doesn’t bite and you don’t wanna invest just yet, tag him and make him do it again.

Floyd played opposite Mack last year. I'm sure that helped.

[Yogi da Bear]

He just isn't worth 12-14 million dollars for what he is doing. He doesn't pile up tackles, sacks or any other stats at this point and he is definitely the 3rd or 4th best linebacker on the team.

He sure isn't better than smith, mack or trevathon and lynch may very well be a better fit for what pagano does as his history suggests that he both blitz's and rushes both his linebackers much more than fangio does.

If they extended him for around 7 million pya and made it a smart contract I could see it, but with the personnel coming due in the near future for this team even that could be very tough to fit in, especially if they intend to keep trevathon past this season. If spotrac is correct and over the cap they have roughly 12 million in space for 2020 unless they cut people, that's without floyd/trevathon or extending guys like whitehair. Tough decisions are coming and unless he makes a quantum leap Floyd is going to be a luxury.

Oh, and Pace's first comment was about his speed, athleticism, lining up all over and that he definitely would help our pass rush, in his press conference after drafting Floyd.

Wow. Not better than Trevathan and Lynch is a better fit and he's only worth 7 mill per? I really don't know how to respond except to say that you have a very obvious bias and animus against him for whatever reason. So you should be pleased to discover that the Bears are going to exercise their fifth year option on Floyd and pay him upwards of 13 mill per. Floyd's Fifth Year Option

Cblaz: I think that his pass rush is still developing and with Mack around teaching him moves, it's going to improve by leaps and bounds. I already love how his strength has improved (that was his biggest weakness coming out). Look at how he just demolishes the Seattle tackle at :50 mark of this highlight.Floyd Highlights 2018 You're right, his biggest problem has been the injury bug, which he seems to be working his way through. At least he's learned how to tackle with his head up. Tackling with his head down is what caused the neck injury as a rookie.

Playing opposite Mack obviously helps a ton, but it can also hurt your personal stats as Mack will snag sacks from you. Check out how many times Mack gets to the QB just before somebody else does in this clip. 2018 Bear Defense Highlights God I love it. Reminds me so much of the '85 team. We should have been Super Bowl bound last year. Damn you Parkey!

[southdakbearfan]

So. Who are you going to cut to sign him to that huge contract is the question with Trubisky and others coming due. Are you going to bail on offensive lineman. Cut dbs, not extend Jackson, cut hicks, cut Robinson or what? The bill comes due and can only be pushed so far down the road. Right now they are 12 million below 2020 estimated cap with whitehair, Jackson, Floyd, trevathon, RRH and others coming up for free agency.

In 3 seasons Floyd has done nothing to justify a contract like that and has missed over 20% of the games. This is Jordan Howard with way less production and way more injuries.

Oh and as long as Floyd is healthy they can cut him with no cost before the next league year. Picking up the 5th year option is a chip to bargain with Floyd if they want a long term deal.

And I said he is third or fourth best. He is most definitely behind smith and Mack. Arguably less important than trevathon. If he goes down Lynch can handle it. If trevathon goes down we have kwit starting which would suck.

[cblaz11]

I just realized that Floyd is currently locked up for two more years...that makes this decision easy. Let’s see what he does next year and possibly the year after before we extend him.

[Umbali]

For me after next year, if Floyd doesnt show huge growth and consistency ( which requires being on the field ) then show him the door. Get a compensatory pick for him if possible and draft a kid. A half decent pass rusher should be able to produce with Mack on the other side and Hicks and Goldman in the middle. I would take more of Belichick approach to it. The good teams know how to get those extra picks and Floyd would probably produce on if we view him as too expensive.

I like him but I dont love him.

[cblaz11]

I think we already picked up the 5th year option which means we’re stuck with him through 2020 whether we want him or not.

I’m sold on Floyd’s ability...it’s his durability that is preventing me from paying him.

[southdakbearfan]

I think we already picked up the 5th year option which means we’re stuck with him through 2020 whether we want him or not.

I’m sold on Floyd’s ability...it’s his durability that is preventing me from paying him.

That is incorrect. It is only guaranteed for injury if they release him prior to the start of the league year. So unless he is injured going into the offseason they have until the start of the league year to decide.

[cblaz11]

Honestly, I’m not sure how the 5th year option works. That said, I thought it was fully guaranteed.

[southdakbearfan]

Honestly, I’m not sure how the 5th year option works. That said, I thought it was fully guaranteed.

If they are unijured going into the offseason prior to the 5th season they can be released prior to the start of the league year with 0 cap hit. At the start of the league year the contract becomes fully guaranteed. Teams can also negotiate an extension prior to the 5th year option even if they have picked it up.

The risk is, if he gets injured seriously or late in the year and he cannot pass a physical after the 19 season you are stuck with a big price for nothing in 20 as it is guaranteed against injury only prior to the league year starting, but the team also gets 1 extra year of control so it's a two way street and there is incentive for the player to negotiate a long term extension.

I don't hate floyd, quite the opposite. I just realize there are a lot of good players on this team and some tough decisions to come ahead. It's a no-brainer to extend a lot of them if the cap space was there but the reality is they are going to have to pay a QB and we have stuck a lot of money longer term in quite a few players, so quite a few of of the rest will probably be let go. You can only extend, convert and defer so long before you get in really big trouble with the cap and then have to go through a season where everyone gets let go (cap hell).