The Cap and the Window

[Moriarty]

I know most people are currently geared up into Full Homer mode. “Will Montgomery be the best back since Payton” or “better than Payton” is the primary debate of interest. For me, though, draft time is all about planning, future, and bigger picture. (Well, actually I’m in that mode most of the year, but even more so in draft season.) So for anyone who isn’t busy with the Kool-Aid bong, here’s a longer-term observation and conversation.

People here have been alert and talking about how hard it is to win it all after your QB gets paid and eats all your cap. Mitch’s contract runs through 2021, after which he gets about a 20M raise (if he keeps progressing and is the future, which isn’t the certainty that everyone assumes it is, but that’s a different thread for a different day). So they set the window of opportunity as now through end of 2021.

But I think the cap pain is coming sooner than people think. In 2020, Mack’s cap number goes from a very modest and affordable 11.9M to a brutal 26.6M, a jump of almost 15M.

To get the rest of the picture, Spotrac is very helpful.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roste ... ears/2020/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They do have a few issues
• It seems to count all salaries, not just the top 53, when you finish. So you have to subtract out yourself, or be perfect with cutting and adding, or copy/paste out to Excel at the end (which is what I did). Don’t forget the dead money from cuts.
• It’s using this year’s cap number. 2020 should be about 200M.

So, right off the bat, you see 22M over. Now that’s the old cap number of 188M. The 2020 should be 200M. You also can use tricks to roll over extra $ from this year…except there’s going to be almost nothing left over and what little cushion they keep for emergencies, you’re going to need that cushion for next year, too. So forget that.

But at least it’s only 10M over, right? Plus, that number includes some camp bodies who won’t make the roster and won’t count. Except that number is also with you letting ALL your free agents go. Start bringing people back and the amount over skyrockets.

Granted, I haven't used any "restructuring", but there's limits to what you can do with that. You can't just push all the money to back-ends, when everyone realizes they might not be around to see it.

Next post I give an example of what could be done to make things fit.

[Moriarty]

Remember as you look at this that you can’t just cut a guy and get all the money back. For example, if you cut Skrine in 2020, you only get ¼ of his 6.4M back. Spotrac quickly gives you the figure when you Manage Cap.

Code: Select all

PLAYER	POS.	AGE	EXPIRES	2020 CAP FIGURE
Kyle Fuller	CB	28	2022	$17,500,000 
Prince Amukamara	CB	31	2021	$10,000,000 
Buster Skrine	CB	31	2022	$6,416,666 
Sherrick McManis	CB	32		$2,000,000 
Tolliver	CB			$665,000 
Duke Shelley	CB	23	2023	$575,000 
Akiem Hicks	DE	30	2022	$11,800,000 
Roy Robertson-Harris	DE	27		$3,300,000 
Bilal Nichols	DE	23	2022	$734,870 
2020 R6	DE			$465,000 
Eddie Goldman	DT	26	2023	$10,800,000 
Nick Williams	DT	30		$1,000,000 
Danny Trevathan	ILB	30		$7,000,000 
Roquan Smith	ILB	23	2023	$5,039,228 
Joel Iyiegbuniwe	ILB	24	2022	$829,643 
2020 R5	ILB			$500,000 
2020 R6	K	0	2022	$500,000 
Patrick Scales	LS	32		$1,000,000 
Khalil Mack	OLB	29	2025	$26,600,000 
Leonard Floyd	OLB	27	2021	$9,000,000 
Aaron Lynch	OLB	27		$1,500,000 
Isaiah Irving	OLB	26		$1,000,000 
Kylie Fitts	OLB	25	2022	$703,050 
Cody Whitehair	OL-C	28		$8,000,000 
James Daniels	OL-G	22	2022	$1,895,498 
2020 R2	OL-G			$1,800,000 
Ted Larsen	OL-G	33		$1,000,000 
Bradley Sowell	OL-G	31		$1,000,000 
Charles Leno	OL-T	28	2022	$8,900,000 
Bobby Massie	OL-T	31	2023	$8,300,000 
Rashaad Coward	OL-T	25		$1,000,000 
2020 R7	P			$465,000 
Mitchell Trubisky	QB	26	2022	$9,237,591 
some cheap vet	QB	 		$3,000,000 
Tyler Bray	QB	28		$1,000,000 
Mike Davis	RB	27	2021	$4,000,000 
Tarik Cohen	RB	25	2021	$893,916 
David Montgomery	RB	23	2023	$750,000 
Kerrith White	RB	0	2023	$465,000 
2020 R5	S	0	 	$500,000 
Deon Bush	S	27		$1,500,000 
DeAndre Houston-Carson	S	27		$1,000,000 
Eddie Jackson	S	27	2021	$901,450 
Trey Burton	TE	28	2022	$8,550,000 
Adam Shaheen	TE	26	2021	$1,880,626 
Ben Braunecker	TE	26	2021	$1,650,000 
Dax Raymond	TE	0	2022	$590,000 
some cheap vet	WR			$2,000,000 
2020 R2	WR			$1,500,000 
Anthony Miller	WR	25	2022	$1,460,100 
Javon Wims	WR	25	2022	$683,978 
Emanuel Hall	WR	0	2022	$585,000 
Riley Ridley	WR	0	2023	$500,000 
				
dead cap				$6,512,000 

$200,448,616


• Brought back Trevathan at about the same money (7M)
• Brought back McManis at about the same
• Brought back Whitehair with a big raise (8M)
• Brought back RRH at the middle tender of 3.3M
• Brought back Bush with a small raise (out of desperation, see below)

• Cut Allan Robinson AND Gabriel AND Patterson to save about 23M. Replaced with a R2 pick and a cheap vet
• Cut O’Donnell and replaced with a R7 pick
• Let Long go, replaced with a R2 pick
• Let Bullard go, replaced with a R6 pick
• Let Kwiatkowski go, replaced with a R5 pick
• Signed Floyd at 9M, less than his 13M rookie option. I’m dubious about him being worth it, but we have nothing behind him and no more meaningful draft picks, either
• Let Chase Daniel go, added some cheap veteran to save 3M
• Clinton-Dix isn’t going to take another reduced contract and I’m out of money, so had to let him go and replace with a R5 pick who will then compete with Bush for the starting SS job. Bleah.

And with all this…it comes out to a shade over 200M. Not a penny to spare anywhere.
2021 doesn’t have all that many meaningful raises coming due – but Eddie Jackson alone will more than wipe out the cap increase for that year.


So, in short:
• 2019 may be the Bears’ best opportunity
• The number of hard choices is just going to accelerate

[wab]

Everyone cares too much about the cap.

"Oh no, the Bears are bad. We need them to spend money on better players and coaches and draft better!"

*Bears do exactly this*

"Oh no, the Bears are good. The brilliant moves the team has made may have an impact on the cap at some point and we don't think anyone who gets paid to think about this stuff has thought about it!"

- Bears fans, probably.

[Mikefive]

Everyone cares too much about the cap.

"Oh no, the Bears are bad. We need them to spend money on better players and coaches and draft better!"

*Bears do exactly this*

"Oh no, the Bears are good. The brilliant moves the team has made may have an impact on the cap at some point and we don't think anyone who gets paid to think about this stuff has thought about it!"

- Bears fans, probably.

Unfair response. It would be at least as fair for me to look at what you wrote and go... "Some Bear fans just put their head in the sand and think everything's going to work out OK." Now I know you're not that kinda guy, so that's also an unfair response.

At least Mori actually did some work and put out numbers to support his point. If we think his info, assumptions and/or conclusions are wrong, then arguments can be made. We do all play GM here at times. But to just go "pfffft" doesn't seem like a thoughtful response.

Peace.

[wab]

This wasn't a dig at Moriarty, it was an observation of Bears fandom as a whole.

The simple fact (and my overarching point) is that Bears fans are conditioned to not enjoy anything. Ever. We poke holes in every facet of the team because we only have a vague idea of what it is to be fans of a successful team.

[SC Bear]

I agree that 2020 could be tight. However, by 2021 the new labor agreement will be in place so you can't project after 2020.
Also the Bears have enough money in this years cap to lock up some contracts. After that they will probably restructure some players contracts for 2020. Based on production this year there will be some cuts and maybe retirements. I think there could be major changes at wr because of the drafting of Ridley, the potential of Wims, and FA Hall. In addition with our 2020 draft capital we should be able to find a minimum of 2 starters. Rosters churn. I am not concerned

[sturf]

It has been pretty obvious Pace has been focused on making sure contracts are structured so that the players can easily be cut after 2020 to prepare for not only players coming due for their 2nd contract, but any changes to the CBA in 2021.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

It has been pretty obvious Pace has been focused on making sure contracts are structured so that the players can easily be cut after 2020 to prepare for not only players coming due for their 2nd contract, but any changes to the CBA in 2021.

The players are going to demand guaranteed contracts in the CBA. Not sure how that's going to look. Will it just be the guaranteed version of current contracts? I'm sure there are a lot of GM's trying to figure out what to do after 2020.

[Bad Flanders]

So for anyone who isn’t busy with the Kool-Aid bong...

You could make millions with that in Colorado! Lets start a company!

Also, good numbers post, you did some major work there. I kind of figured when they did Mack's deal that they were betting on some major extra cap being made available in the future. I guess that'll be in the new labor agreement. I mean baseball players are headed for the big 1 Billion mark, seems like anyone capable of making an NFL roster as a qb is destined for at least a few million each and if you can start you are looking at 20 Million at the low end. There just isn't enough cap space to sustain THAT and keep paying the other positions.

So, it's either capping position prices (lol, I doubt they'll go there) or they have to raise the whole just to accommodate these QB salaries. I think they bet on raising the whole just in time to resign Mitch and deal with Mack's balloon.

[Z Bear]

Windows are for teams that draft bad.... keep hitting on your middle round picks and your window stays open. The Steelers and Patriots let talent walk out of the building every single season but they always stay in the hunt because they have other talent to plug right in. Now that Pace has assembled 53 players that belong in the NFL, he needs to stop trading up and re-stock the cupboard over the next few seasons. Acquire as many 2nd to 4th round picks as possible and make them count.

[IotaNet]

Windows are for teams that draft bad.... keep hitting on your middle round picks and your window stays open. The Steelers and Patriots let talent walk out of the building every single season but they always stay in the hunt because they have other talent to plug right in. Now that Pace has assembled 53 players that belong in the NFL, he needs to stop trading up and re-stock the cupboard over the next few seasons. Acquire as many 2nd to 4th round picks as possible and make them count.

This.

Plus the fact that Pace has proven to me that he is a smart guy and knows what he is doing. I am not an armchair GM and with Pace calling the shots, I don’t have to be. I believe that he has the potential to be a very long-term fixture at Halas Hall.

[jamus34]

Windows are for teams that draft bad.... keep hitting on your middle round picks and your window stays open. The Steelers and Patriots let talent walk out of the building every single season but they always stay in the hunt because they have other talent to plug right in. Now that Pace has assembled 53 players that belong in the NFL, he needs to stop trading up and re-stock the cupboard over the next few seasons. Acquire as many 2nd to 4th round picks as possible and make them count.

It's not just the talent change.

Both teams have had stable QB and coaching situations for a decade or more.

Guaranteed you have an change in either of those parameters and neither team would have the success they have.

Same could be said for New Orleans. The defense is almost always suspect which hurts them but with Brees and Payton they are always competitive.

You may not win championships without a full team but if you have solid and stable coaching and QB play you will be competitive year in and year out.

Another thing that has helped both the teams in your example is that the competition in their respective divisions has been relatively weak at best. Steelers had to deal with the Ravens here and there but the AFC East has been a dumpster fire for close to a decade with regard to competition to the Patriots. Biils - Garbage; Miami - Bad to garbage now; Jets - Dumpster fire.

[malk]

Windows are for teams that draft bad.... keep hitting on your middle round picks and your window stays open. The Steelers and Patriots let talent walk out of the building every single season but they always stay in the hunt because they have other talent to plug right in. Now that Pace has assembled 53 players that belong in the NFL, he needs to stop trading up and re-stock the cupboard over the next few seasons. Acquire as many 2nd to 4th round picks as possible and make them count.

It's not just the talent change.

Both teams have had stable QB and coaching situations for a decade or more.

Guaranteed you have an change in either of those parameters and neither team would have the success they have.

Same could be said for New Orleans. The defense is almost always suspect which hurts them but with Brees and Payton they are always competitive.

You may not win championships without a full team but if you have solid and stable coaching and QB play you will be competitive year in and year out.

Another thing that has helped both the teams in your example is that the competition in their respective divisions has been relatively weak at best. Steelers had to deal with the Ravens here and there but the AFC East has been a dumpster fire for close to a decade with regard to competition to the Patriots. Biils - Garbage; Miami - Bad to garbage now; Jets - Dumpster fire.

The Steelers haven't won a ring since 2008 (the first year of Roethlisberger's 2nd contract) and Brady consistently took before market deals and utilised the uncapped year well.

In two years time we're not just going to have to let a bit of talent walk out the door, it's $20m plus worth of talent to make room for Trubisky going from a rookie contract to $30m+. It's obviously possible to overcome but, in terms of keeping enough talent to win rings rather than just make the playoffs, it's not just a case of hitting on a few mid rounders every year.

[The Marshall Plan]

Remember as you look at this that you can’t just cut a guy and get all the money back. For example, if you cut Skrine in 2020, you only get ¼ of his 6.4M back. Spotrac quickly gives you the figure when you Manage Cap.

Code: Select all

PLAYER	POS.	AGE	EXPIRES	2020 CAP FIGURE
Kyle Fuller	CB	28	2022	$17,500,000 
Prince Amukamara	CB	31	2021	$10,000,000 
Buster Skrine	CB	31	2022	$6,416,666 
Sherrick McManis	CB	32		$2,000,000 
Tolliver	CB			$665,000 
Duke Shelley	CB	23	2023	$575,000 
Akiem Hicks	DE	30	2022	$11,800,000 
Roy Robertson-Harris	DE	27		$3,300,000 
Bilal Nichols	DE	23	2022	$734,870 
2020 R6	DE			$465,000 
Eddie Goldman	DT	26	2023	$10,800,000 
Nick Williams	DT	30		$1,000,000 
Danny Trevathan	ILB	30		$7,000,000 
Roquan Smith	ILB	23	2023	$5,039,228 
Joel Iyiegbuniwe	ILB	24	2022	$829,643 
2020 R5	ILB			$500,000 
2020 R6	K	0	2022	$500,000 
Patrick Scales	LS	32		$1,000,000 
Khalil Mack	OLB	29	2025	$26,600,000 
Leonard Floyd	OLB	27	2021	$9,000,000 
Aaron Lynch	OLB	27		$1,500,000 
Isaiah Irving	OLB	26		$1,000,000 
Kylie Fitts	OLB	25	2022	$703,050 
Cody Whitehair	OL-C	28		$8,000,000 
James Daniels	OL-G	22	2022	$1,895,498 
2020 R2	OL-G			$1,800,000 
Ted Larsen	OL-G	33		$1,000,000 
Bradley Sowell	OL-G	31		$1,000,000 
Charles Leno	OL-T	28	2022	$8,900,000 
Bobby Massie	OL-T	31	2023	$8,300,000 
Rashaad Coward	OL-T	25		$1,000,000 
2020 R7	P			$465,000 
Mitchell Trubisky	QB	26	2022	$9,237,591 
some cheap vet	QB	 		$3,000,000 
Tyler Bray	QB	28		$1,000,000 
Mike Davis	RB	27	2021	$4,000,000 
Tarik Cohen	RB	25	2021	$893,916 
David Montgomery	RB	23	2023	$750,000 
Kerrith White	RB	0	2023	$465,000 
2020 R5	S	0	 	$500,000 
Deon Bush	S	27		$1,500,000 
DeAndre Houston-Carson	S	27		$1,000,000 
Eddie Jackson	S	27	2021	$901,450 
Trey Burton	TE	28	2022	$8,550,000 
Adam Shaheen	TE	26	2021	$1,880,626 
Ben Braunecker	TE	26	2021	$1,650,000 
Dax Raymond	TE	0	2022	$590,000 
some cheap vet	WR			$2,000,000 
2020 R2	WR			$1,500,000 
Anthony Miller	WR	25	2022	$1,460,100 
Javon Wims	WR	25	2022	$683,978 
Emanuel Hall	WR	0	2022	$585,000 
Riley Ridley	WR	0	2023	$500,000 
				
dead cap				$6,512,000 

$200,448,616


• Brought back Trevathan at about the same money (7M)
• Brought back McManis at about the same
• Brought back Whitehair with a big raise (8M)
• Brought back RRH at the middle tender of 3.3M
• Brought back Bush with a small raise (out of desperation, see below)

• Cut Allan Robinson AND Gabriel AND Patterson to save about 23M. Replaced with a R2 pick and a cheap vet
• Cut O’Donnell and replaced with a R7 pick
• Let Long go, replaced with a R2 pick
• Let Bullard go, replaced with a R6 pick
• Let Kwiatkowski go, replaced with a R5 pick
• Signed Floyd at 9M, less than his 13M rookie option. I’m dubious about him being worth it, but we have nothing behind him and no more meaningful draft picks, either
• Let Chase Daniel go, added some cheap veteran to save 3M
• Clinton-Dix isn’t going to take another reduced contract and I’m out of money, so had to let him go and replace with a R5 pick who will then compete with Bush for the starting SS job. Bleah.

And with all this…it comes out to a shade over 200M. Not a penny to spare anywhere.
2021 doesn’t have all that many meaningful raises coming due – but Eddie Jackson alone will more than wipe out the cap increase for that year.


So, in short:
• 2019 may be the Bears’ best opportunity
• The number of hard choices is just going to accelerate

I cut AR15, Mike Davis, Long (this should've been a long time ago), Patterson, and Floyd (his option should never have been picked up). Then I signed RRH and Whitehair for the same amounts you did and I've got $3.1M left. Now granted I am probably less than 1% as good at this as Ryan Pace. If I can get to a manageable situation that appears to not be a crisis, Ryan Pace can figure this out.

The Bears have six picks in 2020. 2 second rounders (the second one being from the Mack trade), 5th, 6th, 7th, and the pick from the Jordan Howard trade which will be either a 5th or a 6th. You can do a lot with that. We need to start drafting a developmental QB and an RB every few years.

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/chalk ... 2020-draft

The Bears are nowhere near an end of the world situation. If you started watching football today and had to pick a team to root for over the next five years it would be really hard to do better than the Bears. Cleveland would be another.

Provided we stay healthy and the locker room doesn't self destruct (Why would it?) I think we've got four years. If Biscuit develops into a top 5 QB in this league we've got a lot longer than that. An elite QB hides a lot of weaknesses. What concerns me further down the road is what Biscuit's extension is going to look like (cap inflation after the new CBA might take care of that for us) and then I really want to keep Eddie Jackson.

Then look at the NFC. Drew Brees is awesome but he's not getting any younger. Fuck The Packers are done. I think LA will be in perpetual cap hell. The only team that bothers me is the Eagles.