I read this as somewhat of a contradiction. It sounds like you're saying we aren't going to be able to re-sign him when his contract is up. But at the same time you don't want to spend draft capital to replace him. Of course, we do have him for 2 more years, so I guess there's always that time before replacement needs to occur.sturf wrote:Pass rushing is so volatile. Fans were saying Vic Beasley is who the Bears should of drafted after he 15.5 sacks in his second season. He followed that up with two 5 sacks seasons and isn't even a full time starter. Melvin Ingram was a bust as a pass rusher with a total of 6 sacks in his first 3 seasons and a torn ACL until he wasn't. This discussion about Floyd always gets framed in terms of sack totals, but I think getting Mack has changed what's needed at the opposite OLB position.
How hard it is going to be for the Bears to find another OLB that can set the edge well in the run game, play detached from the formation to jam WRs and TEs, drop 15 yards downfield, and still be a threat as a pass rusher? The Bears cannot afford someone like that in free agency. To find someone with that level of athleticism is going to take a 1st or 2nd round pick. Given the bust rate for OLBs do you really want to spend valuable draft capital there on a team trying to win now?
I see Floyd as someone who plays with consistent effort, sets the edge well with his length, allows the Bears defense to scheme like being able to play the base defense against the Rams' 3 WR sets, and is still a pass rushing threat with his speed. He also seems to have gotten past the concussion issues, which were scary early in his career. I'm hoping the Bears can use his injury history and lack of sack production to this point to get Floyd signed to an extension before the season starts because I don't see how the Bears replace him if he runs into a 10 sack season in 2019 or 2020.
Leonard Floyd discussion
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Mikefive
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My point is there is a significant incentive to pay the money to get Floyd locked into an extension before the 2019 season begins. Because he could not improve as a pass rusher at all in 2019 and still run his way into a 10 sack season that would make an extension too expensive for the Bears. And it may be worth it to pay Floyd given the bust rate of pass rushers in the draft, especially when the ones that succeed often take several to develop anyway. I'm willing to bet now on Floyd improving as a pass rusher given the alternatives.Mikefive wrote:I read this as somewhat of a contradiction. It sounds like you're saying we aren't going to be able to re-sign him when his contract is up. But at the same time you don't want to spend draft capital to replace him. Of course, we do have him for 2 more years, so I guess there's always that time before replacement needs to occur.
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Sugashane
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I want to preface this by saying I do like Floyd. Genuinely seems like a good kid and is a solid piece to have for a team. I've been over this a lot o another forum.
Was Floyd worth a top 10 pick? What do I think of him?
Hell no. He is an off-ball OLB, a semi-MLB, but not the impact player like Smith is. He was drafted to be an EDGE, failed miserably there. So Pace realized his mistake, got Mack, and was lucky Floyd does have a solidly rounded skillset. But he has literally been HEALTHY in just about 60% of his games (I'm counting his 8 or so games in a cast last year as not healthy, as it really limited his effectiveness. It was like Mack with the bum ankle. He is not durable at all it seems. Missed 10 of 32 games completely his first two years, had a cast for 8 which you even admit affected his play "dramatically" - as I said "healthy", not active- so right there we are talking about him not being healthy for 18 for 48 regular season games. He left due to some injury during the Rams game as well, so 19 of 48. That is almost 40% right there. That MUST be considered, because if we are in the postseason we need to be as healthy as possible, and him having a 60% chance of playing is a damning issue IMO.
Is he worth $13 million?
For the Bears? No way in hell. He is not an EDGE, he is an off-ball OLB who is basically used as a 4-3 OLB or even just simply another MLB that is over the tackle. He lacks the ability to make impact plays with any regularity, but doesn't have a true weakness in his game as he is at least passable in every aspect. So basically he is a larger Amos in that regard. Add in that he is not a top player on the Bears and it seems ridiculous to put so much capital into retaining him. Just on defense the Bears have 5 players that are IMO clearly better than him - Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Jackson, Smith, and Goldman. I would have put Amos in that list last year. Then you have Nichols rising and may overtake him this year, RRH looking to show he can rush the passer from the outside this year, Trevathan who is better but nearing the end of his career to age I believe, and Amukamara who is also unspectacular but damn good at a more premier position (remember Floyd isn't an EDGE). On offense we are also looking at Tru's potential crazy extension, ascending talents like Miller, Whitehair, and Daniels that are guys that we are going to be revolving the offense around the next 10 years. Frankly it is madness to put so much into him financially. You simply don't invest that much into an injury-prone player who isn't even a top 15 player on your team. And yes, I mean he really isn't and counted the guys I think are better, not counting any rookies in this draft class.
Has he been underwhelming to me?
Absolutely. I was hoping he would develop into a solid EDGE to be a cornerstone of the defense. The Jason Taylor comps were a joke to me, but rather than be a cornerstone he has become a solid complimentary piece when healthy. I'd value that as a 1st round pick, but in retrospect, even if it isn't actually fair to him, with his injury woes I wouldn't go above a late 2nd for him. He is easily replaceable compared to most of the defensive starters IMO.
Are the injuries a fluke or a habit and how does that impact your opinion of him?
He heasn't been healthy for but about 60% of his games, so I can't say it is a fluke. It greatly drops his value to me, as the best ability is availability. I can swing for injury prone players if they are support roles or rookies that aren't getting a ton of capital invested into them. I was willing to try Love in my mock draft, I wanted to trade up to 30-32 to draft Jaylon Smith and get the 5th year of eligibility, etc. But those guys were/would be cheap enough that you can add talented depth at their position in case they don't recover. You can't really afford to do that while paying the guy $13 mil per year.
Floyd is going to get over $10M per year from someone, and that is fine with me. He isn't worth it, but if he can net us a 3rd round comp pick while getting overpaid then good for him. He likely can get much more in the open market actually, look at the recent deals.
Dee Ford (28) -- Signed 5-year, $87.5M deal with SF - $17.5M average
Trey Flowers (25) -- Signed 5-year, $90M deal with DET - $18M average
Preston Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $52M deal with GB - $13M average
Za'Darius Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $66M deal with GB - $16.5M average
These gys aren't exactly on HOF paths. Ford has 2 10-sack campaigns, so disregard him. Flowers is averaging 7 sacks per year but is more limited in coverage. Preston Smith is averaging only about per year and is unable to have good years back to back thus far, Za'Darius Smith is coming off his best year but still only has about 4.5 sacks per year even after an 8 sack campaign. So there is a damn good chance Floyd, if he can have a decent year, will get $14-15 million per year from someone who is desperate for talent.
He just isn't worth it. Give me the 3rd round comp pick and thank you for the memories Floyd.
Was Floyd worth a top 10 pick? What do I think of him?
Hell no. He is an off-ball OLB, a semi-MLB, but not the impact player like Smith is. He was drafted to be an EDGE, failed miserably there. So Pace realized his mistake, got Mack, and was lucky Floyd does have a solidly rounded skillset. But he has literally been HEALTHY in just about 60% of his games (I'm counting his 8 or so games in a cast last year as not healthy, as it really limited his effectiveness. It was like Mack with the bum ankle. He is not durable at all it seems. Missed 10 of 32 games completely his first two years, had a cast for 8 which you even admit affected his play "dramatically" - as I said "healthy", not active- so right there we are talking about him not being healthy for 18 for 48 regular season games. He left due to some injury during the Rams game as well, so 19 of 48. That is almost 40% right there. That MUST be considered, because if we are in the postseason we need to be as healthy as possible, and him having a 60% chance of playing is a damning issue IMO.
Is he worth $13 million?
For the Bears? No way in hell. He is not an EDGE, he is an off-ball OLB who is basically used as a 4-3 OLB or even just simply another MLB that is over the tackle. He lacks the ability to make impact plays with any regularity, but doesn't have a true weakness in his game as he is at least passable in every aspect. So basically he is a larger Amos in that regard. Add in that he is not a top player on the Bears and it seems ridiculous to put so much capital into retaining him. Just on defense the Bears have 5 players that are IMO clearly better than him - Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Jackson, Smith, and Goldman. I would have put Amos in that list last year. Then you have Nichols rising and may overtake him this year, RRH looking to show he can rush the passer from the outside this year, Trevathan who is better but nearing the end of his career to age I believe, and Amukamara who is also unspectacular but damn good at a more premier position (remember Floyd isn't an EDGE). On offense we are also looking at Tru's potential crazy extension, ascending talents like Miller, Whitehair, and Daniels that are guys that we are going to be revolving the offense around the next 10 years. Frankly it is madness to put so much into him financially. You simply don't invest that much into an injury-prone player who isn't even a top 15 player on your team. And yes, I mean he really isn't and counted the guys I think are better, not counting any rookies in this draft class.
Has he been underwhelming to me?
Absolutely. I was hoping he would develop into a solid EDGE to be a cornerstone of the defense. The Jason Taylor comps were a joke to me, but rather than be a cornerstone he has become a solid complimentary piece when healthy. I'd value that as a 1st round pick, but in retrospect, even if it isn't actually fair to him, with his injury woes I wouldn't go above a late 2nd for him. He is easily replaceable compared to most of the defensive starters IMO.
Are the injuries a fluke or a habit and how does that impact your opinion of him?
He heasn't been healthy for but about 60% of his games, so I can't say it is a fluke. It greatly drops his value to me, as the best ability is availability. I can swing for injury prone players if they are support roles or rookies that aren't getting a ton of capital invested into them. I was willing to try Love in my mock draft, I wanted to trade up to 30-32 to draft Jaylon Smith and get the 5th year of eligibility, etc. But those guys were/would be cheap enough that you can add talented depth at their position in case they don't recover. You can't really afford to do that while paying the guy $13 mil per year.
Floyd is going to get over $10M per year from someone, and that is fine with me. He isn't worth it, but if he can net us a 3rd round comp pick while getting overpaid then good for him. He likely can get much more in the open market actually, look at the recent deals.
Dee Ford (28) -- Signed 5-year, $87.5M deal with SF - $17.5M average
Trey Flowers (25) -- Signed 5-year, $90M deal with DET - $18M average
Preston Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $52M deal with GB - $13M average
Za'Darius Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $66M deal with GB - $16.5M average
These gys aren't exactly on HOF paths. Ford has 2 10-sack campaigns, so disregard him. Flowers is averaging 7 sacks per year but is more limited in coverage. Preston Smith is averaging only about per year and is unable to have good years back to back thus far, Za'Darius Smith is coming off his best year but still only has about 4.5 sacks per year even after an 8 sack campaign. So there is a damn good chance Floyd, if he can have a decent year, will get $14-15 million per year from someone who is desperate for talent.
He just isn't worth it. Give me the 3rd round comp pick and thank you for the memories Floyd.
