PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

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PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:54 am

What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:02 am

Jonathan Wood at DaBearsBlog wrote about PFF's analysis.
https://twitter.com/Johnathan_Wood1/sta ... 1466569731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:21 am

Great follow up article thunderspirit. Thanks!

Completely agree. I think the probability that Trubisky takes another leap forward this year, is much higher than some sort of major regression.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:53 am

PFF has never had a favorable opinion of Trubisky.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:02 am

Boris13c wrote:What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
2019 is really the first year that would be fair to start evaluating Biscuit. His actual rookie year was a loss because it was under Fox and it wound up being a transition year to Nagy. Last year he had to learn a very complex offense, as did all his receivers who were also new to the Bears, and we went 12-4 with a lot of help from a great defense.

Not exactly sure what they expected of Biscuit last year.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:18 am

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
2019 is really the first year that would be fair to start evaluating Biscuit. His actual rookie year was a loss because it was under Fox and it wound up being a transition year to Nagy. Last year he had to learn a very complex offense, as did all his receivers who were also new to the Bears, and we went 12-4 with a lot of help from a great defense.

Not exactly sure what they expected of Biscuit last year.
Right? Here is a whole new HC/OC, a whole new offense that is 10x more complex than the one he ran under Loggains, and oh by the way, here is a whole new crop of receivers.

I hate analysts who JUST look at numbers, and don't take into account (sometimes extreme) extenuating circumstances.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:45 am

wab wrote:PFF has never had a favorable opinion of Trubisky.
They were high on his rookie season and graded him higher than Deshaun Watson. The 2018 season was a turnabout.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:46 am

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
2019 is really the first year that would be fair to start evaluating Biscuit. His actual rookie year was a loss because it was under Fox and it wound up being a transition year to Nagy. Last year he had to learn a very complex offense, as did all his receivers who were also new to the Bears, and we went 12-4 with a lot of help from a great defense.

Not exactly sure what they expected of Biscuit last year.
Right? Here is a whole new HC/OC, a whole new offense that is 10x more complex than the one he ran under Loggains, and oh by the way, here is a whole new crop of receivers.

I hate analysts who JUST look at numbers, and don't take into account (sometimes extreme) extenuating circumstances.
Well, PFF is a film grade. It's not a raw data analysis.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:03 pm

Trubisky has flaws and areas where he needs to improve.

He threw way too many balls that were interceptable last season and got away with plenty. That tends to even out.
He appears to have issues throwing to his left, which might be mechanics-related. Teams gameplan for those tendencies.

That said, I am optimistic about Trubisky's development. His flashes when given the ball with the game on the line are promising. And he hasn't shown a tendency to repeat the same mistakes over and over.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:28 pm

Richie wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
2019 is really the first year that would be fair to start evaluating Biscuit. His actual rookie year was a loss because it was under Fox and it wound up being a transition year to Nagy. Last year he had to learn a very complex offense, as did all his receivers who were also new to the Bears, and we went 12-4 with a lot of help from a great defense.

Not exactly sure what they expected of Biscuit last year.
Right? Here is a whole new HC/OC, a whole new offense that is 10x more complex than the one he ran under Loggains, and oh by the way, here is a whole new crop of receivers.

I hate analysts who JUST look at numbers, and don't take into account (sometimes extreme) extenuating circumstances.
Well, PFF is a film grade. It's not a raw data analysis.
It's a film grade, but then they base metrics off of the film. So they can't possibly take into account the massive changeovers that Trubisky went through.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:34 pm

Follow-up: this posted today at presnapreads.com

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubi ... le-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:58 pm

thunderspirit wrote:Follow-up: this posted today at presnapreads.com

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubi ... le-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's an interesting article. I think that it's going to take this year and next before the Bears really know what they have in Trubisky. Especially with the complexity of Nagy's offense. Personally I thought Biscuits showed A LOT of growth throughout the year. I think he became more confident at just about everything. I expect him to take a step forward at the beginning of 2019, from where he was at the end of 2018.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:55 pm

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
thunderspirit wrote:Follow-up: this posted today at presnapreads.com

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubi ... le-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's an interesting article. I think that it's going to take this year and next before the Bears really know what they have in Trubisky. Especially with the complexity of Nagy's offense. Personally I thought Biscuits showed A LOT of growth throughout the year. I think he became more confident at just about everything. I expect him to take a step forward at the beginning of 2019, from where he was at the end of 2018.
I still think for reasons we said before that its unfair to evaluate Biscuit in year 1 and year 2. I agree with you in that we need to see him this year and next to know what we really have. At a high level, I have a real hard time being critical of a QB on a 12-4 team who had a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 66.6% completion rate, and a respectable 95.4 QB rating given where he is in his career the offense and a new head coach.

In addition to those stats, he's also a leader.

We were also one FG away from going to the Super Bowl in my opinion. We had beaten the Rams and I think we beat the Saints. Then with New England, I know we're dealing with Belichick and the GOAT, but we lost that regular season game because special teams was awful. Its entirely possible that with a reliable kicker the Bears are Super Bowl champs.

Going into any of those games, I wouldn't have listed Biscuit as a concern. My main concerns were the kicker, overall special teams and the running game. Biscuit isn't a weakness on this team, he's a strength and he's only just begun.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:45 pm

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
thunderspirit wrote:Follow-up: this posted today at presnapreads.com

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubi ... le-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's an interesting article. I think that it's going to take this year and next before the Bears really know what they have in Trubisky. Especially with the complexity of Nagy's offense. Personally I thought Biscuits showed A LOT of growth throughout the year. I think he became more confident at just about everything. I expect him to take a step forward at the beginning of 2019, from where he was at the end of 2018.
It's not going to be leaps and bounds of change with Biscuit. He'll be better this year than last. And he'll be even better in 2020, I believe.

Just because "our team is setup to win now" or fans or media want his development to be complete today is irrelevant to the reality that his development is just going to take time. And that's OK, at least in my eyes.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:51 pm

Mikefive wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
thunderspirit wrote:Follow-up: this posted today at presnapreads.com

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubi ... le-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's an interesting article. I think that it's going to take this year and next before the Bears really know what they have in Trubisky. Especially with the complexity of Nagy's offense. Personally I thought Biscuits showed A LOT of growth throughout the year. I think he became more confident at just about everything. I expect him to take a step forward at the beginning of 2019, from where he was at the end of 2018.
It's not going to be leaps and bounds of change with Biscuit. He'll be better this year than last. And he'll be even better in 2020, I believe.

Just because "our team is setup to win now" or fans or media want his development to be complete today is irrelevant to the reality that his development is just going to take time. And that's OK, at least in my eyes.
I like to say that the key to winning in the NFL is to have long term consistency at the GM, HC and QB positions. If you have all three of those locked down, and all three are in lockstep, as a franchise you are going to win a lot more than you lose.

Right now I am convinced more than ever that we have taken care of the GM and HC positions. I am just hoping that Mitch is the QB part.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:01 pm

I don't necessarily think they are wrong. I do think context matters. His numbers where better then what he actually played. Half the season I would say he was straight up bad. However the key is he improved practically every game. That's what's important.

Trubisky struggled especially earlier in the year. We all talked about needing/wanting to see Trubs take positive steps forward. Which he actually did. However he did struggle (to harsh of a word but I can't think of a better word) with 2 main aspects.

1 keeping a solid base in the pocket. When his feet get narrow and he doesn't step and fully rotate his hips in to a trow, the ball sails. He really had some ugly throws, especially for how good some throws where.

2 reading the field. He either got locked on to a target, miss open receivers, ran to early, or read the coverage wrong.

Both those things he improved throughout the season. The arrow is pointing up for Trubs. You shouldn't be completely sold on the kid, but you would invest in his rising stock.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:27 am

you want to see how Mitch progressed, go watch that last offensive drive against the Eagles in the playoffs ... little time on the clock playing against a defense geared to stop the pass to end the game and Trubisky led the offense into make-able FG range ... that was performing under pressure

if he was a mediocre placeholder as some depict him to be, Parkey would still be the Bears kicker because he never would have had an opportunity at the end of that game
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:32 am

Watching Chase Daniels play last year really made me appreciate Biscuit. Daniels knows the offense, but you can see how much farther Mitch, with limited experience, can take this team.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:30 pm

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:I like to say that the key to winning in the NFL is to have long term consistency at the GM, HC and QB positions. If you have all three of those locked down, and all three are in lockstep, as a franchise you are going to win a lot more than you lose.

Right now I am convinced more than ever that we have taken care of the GM and HC positions. I am just hoping that Mitch is the QB part.
I have been saying this since we drafted Trubisky but I'll say it again:
"This is what developing a young quarterback looks like."

People all want to talk about Mahomes but he was a total outlier. He had some of the best complementary pieces in the NFL ... AND he had a year to sit learn the offense -- under a guy classy enough to mentor him.

Deshaun Watson came into the league with more big game/bright lights experience than anyone in recent memory. AND the benefit of DeAndre Hopkins.

I don't even pay any attention to the Trubisky naysayers anymore. Just like I tuned out the Ryan Pace naysayers. It takes a long time to build a winning foundation under a team that has been lackluster for so long.

September can't get here fast enough for me.
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:37 pm

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
Richie wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Boris13c wrote:What the advanced analytics say about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

the summary paragraph clearly expresses their opinion :
So, while it’s true the Bears have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with a head coach who appears to be one of the best young offensive minds in the game, we’re very skeptical of Trubisky as a passer in 2019. While it’s possible (likely?) that he makes process-level improvements, namely that he’s more accurate and avoids negatively-graded plays more frequently, it’s probably unlikely that they will be enough in and of themselves to overcome the statistical regression that his data begs. Add in the likelihood that the Bears are not the clear-cut best defense in the NFL in 2019 and things will just be harder for Chicago and their young quarterback. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
while they may have made some statistical points in their story, the true measure of a QB is beyond that which can be charted on a stat sheet ... those hard to define, but you know it when you see it, intangibles ... and I think Mr. Trubisky has that ... and unlike PFF, I believe he is smart enough and coachable enough to understand where he needs to improve as a player and will take measures to do so

so be skeptical all you want PFF, the Bears, with Trubisky leading the offense, WILL improve ... so :flick:
2019 is really the first year that would be fair to start evaluating Biscuit. His actual rookie year was a loss because it was under Fox and it wound up being a transition year to Nagy. Last year he had to learn a very complex offense, as did all his receivers who were also new to the Bears, and we went 12-4 with a lot of help from a great defense.

Not exactly sure what they expected of Biscuit last year.
Right? Here is a whole new HC/OC, a whole new offense that is 10x more complex than the one he ran under Loggains, and oh by the way, here is a whole new crop of receivers.

I hate analysts who JUST look at numbers, and don't take into account (sometimes extreme) extenuating circumstances.
Well, PFF is a film grade. It's not a raw data analysis.
It's a film grade, but then they base metrics off of the film. So they can't possibly take into account the massive changeovers that Trubisky went through.
Fair point
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:19 am

thunderspirit wrote:Jonathan Wood at DaBearsBlog wrote about PFF's analysis.
https://twitter.com/Johnathan_Wood1/sta ... 1466569731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Great article/tweet man
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Re: PFF talks Trubisky - and not in favorable terms

Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:36 am

IotaNet wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:I like to say that the key to winning in the NFL is to have long term consistency at the GM, HC and QB positions. If you have all three of those locked down, and all three are in lockstep, as a franchise you are going to win a lot more than you lose.

Right now I am convinced more than ever that we have taken care of the GM and HC positions. I am just hoping that Mitch is the QB part.
I have been saying this since we drafted Trubisky but I'll say it again:
"This is what developing a young quarterback looks like."

People all want to talk about Mahomes but he was a total outlier. He had some of the best complementary pieces in the NFL ... AND he had a year to sit learn the offense -- under a guy classy enough to mentor him.

Deshaun Watson came into the league with more big game/bright lights experience than anyone in recent memory. AND the benefit of DeAndre Hopkins.

I don't even pay any attention to the Trubisky naysayers anymore. Just like I tuned out the Ryan Pace naysayers. It takes a long time to build a winning foundation under a team that has been lackluster for so long.

September can't get here fast enough for me.
Good points sir

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