Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

[BR0D1E86]

Put Drew Brees in his infamous "benching" year on this Bears team with this D, and he'd be contending for the playoffs. He never looked like this. That's revisionist history.

Speaking of turd eating, allow me to breakdown the reality of your quoted text:

His "infamous benching year" compiled a 2-9 record as a starter, 57.6% of his passes completed, 5.9 YPA and a 67.5 rating.

I mean my God, the preposterous nature of your perspective is staggering if not unsurprising.

Jimmy Clausen, Tyler Bray, draft Connor Cook. Enough already.

Barring injury you'll be seeing Trubisky in 2020 so buckle up and enjoy the ride. I'm rooting for the kid and hoping he continues to develop in this offense.

I think "continues to develop" is misleading, because he's doing the opposite. But you're right, we're probably looking at another season of him at quarterback so we have little option but to hope for the best.

Edit: I would be very surprised if there isn't some sort of move to at least make a show of a competition, like Mariota or similar to the Titans getting Tannehill this season (the irony built into that sentence is not lost on me).

[G08]

Speaking of turd eating, allow me to breakdown the reality of your quoted text:

His "infamous benching year" compiled a 2-9 record as a starter, 57.6% of his passes completed, 5.9 YPA and a 67.5 rating.

I mean my God, the preposterous nature of your perspective is staggering if not unsurprising.

Jimmy Clausen, Tyler Bray, draft Connor Cook. Enough already.

Barring injury you'll be seeing Trubisky in 2020 so buckle up and enjoy the ride. I'm rooting for the kid and hoping he continues to develop in this offense.

I think "continues to develop" is misleading, because he's doing the opposite. But you're right, we're probably looking at another season of him at quarterback so we have little option but to hope for the best.

Edit: I would be very surprised if there isn't some sort of move to at least make a show of a competition, like Mariota or similar to the Titans getting Tannehill this season (the irony built into that sentence is not lost on me).

Regardless of what he does the rest of the season, I want them to bring in legit competition next season. Someone that not only will push Trubisky but if he fails you can see if the young backup has anything to him before you look to the draft in 2021. Far from ideal but it lets you hedge your bets a bit.

[UOK]

If the QBs next year are Trubisky, Daniel, and Bray, then you can count on a house-cleaning. It means they're all going down with the ship.

[Moriarty]

If the QBs next year are Trubisky, Daniel, and Bray, then you can count on a house-cleaning. It means they're all going down with the ship.

I don’t think there’s any chance they go in with an identical crew.

But I won’t be shocked if they half-ass it and bring in a feeble vet and/or a 4th round rookie, just to placate people and sell the narrative of “pushing Mitch” and “having options” and “competition”.

(OTOH, I also see dangerous possibility in going too far in the other direction – giving someone a Kirk Cousinsesque contract out of desperation, crippling the team for years if it doesn’t work out.)

[G08]

If the QBs next year are Trubisky, Daniel, and Bray, then you can count on a house-cleaning. It means they're all going down with the ship.

I don't think they'll draft a QB unless someone they like is available on day 3. I do think they'll kick the tires, depending on price, on Dalton/Mariota/Tannehill.

I wonder if we'll see some changes to the offensive coaching staff. For all his supposed glory Harry Hiestand's unit has been terrible. Bill Callahan could be a solid get if/when he's jettisoned from Washington.

[BR0D1E86]

Yeah, I'm pretty confident Daniel is gone after this season. I would bet on some sort of veteran they can sell as at least a show of a competition in camp.

[The Marshall Plan]

I think "continues to develop" is misleading, because he's doing the opposite. But you're right, we're probably looking at another season of him at quarterback so we have little option but to hope for the best.

Edit: I would be very surprised if there isn't some sort of move to at least make a show of a competition, like Mariota or similar to the Titans getting Tannehill this season (the irony built into that sentence is not lost on me).

Regardless of what he does the rest of the season, I want them to bring in legit competition next season. Someone that not only will push Trubisky but if he fails you can see if the young backup has anything to him before you look to the draft in 2021. Far from ideal but it lets you hedge your bets a bit.

ZOMG BLATANT DISHONESTY ASIDE (giggle), herein lies the serious problem. The defense is built to win now and should be that way for up to the next three years. Therefore our options are:

1) Keep things as-is and roll the dice with Mitch with Daniel as the backup.
2) Keep things as-is with Mitch and draft a QB in the 2nd round.
3) Keep things as-is with Mitch and sign a veteran.
4) Draft a QB in the 2nd round and make him the starter.
5) Sign a veteran and make Mitch the backup.
6) Sign a veteran, cut Mitch, and either draft a QB in the 2nd round or keep Daniel.

Option #1: Any sign of struggle and the defense will start to check-out again and the season is over.
Option #2: If Mitch’s struggles continue people will be calling for that pick to start.
Option #3: Same as option #2.
Option #4: 100% total roll of the dice.
Option #5: Assuming its one of either Foles, Alex Smith, or Bridgewater, the entire team will get a shot in the arm.
Option #6: We go nuclear and let’s be honest, everybody gets reinvigorated again.

Which option do you believe right now gives us the best chance to win with a three year window based on the defense?

Wouldn’t it have to be options 5 or 6? What is your thought process?

[crueltyabc]

I don't know why everyone can't agree that the most likely scenario is that Mitch is an average QB. I mean... that's what average is all about. Once we all let go the draft circumstances and talk about "what do we do if we have an average quarterback" we'll all feel more sane.

Btw I think Pace should go with option 3. Use the draft capital to improve the roster around the QB, and use some cap space to be sure we get AT LEAST average play (we won't get that from Daniel). Plan for average QB play and decide how you can win with it from a coaching and personnel standpoint. If either Mitch or the veteran play better than average, cool. If not, replace them in 2021 with a first rounder.

[AZ_Bearfan]

Didn't Pace say he believed you should draft a QB every year.... then goes on to draft one in his entire career so far.

[IE]

Keep Mitch, sign the best veteran option without breaking the bank (e.g. no Foles or Bridgewater), and draft a QB in the 2nd because it looks like there will be one there. Loyalty to none.

I personally think there is ample evidence Mitch can't seriously compete on a level playing field and legitimately earn a starting job over other real options. Even someone like Mariota. But it wouldn't be a bad story if he became a Danny White or Matt Schaub for the Bears. Maybe he could even come in for a few games after the starter goes down and light it up against the Lions and Rodgers-free Packers at some point, and score $30-40MM from the Bengals or Jags or someone, and then return to play backup for the Bears again a wealthy man. That would be cool.

[BR0D1E86]

Interesting in that he's gotten somewhat of a reputation as a bumslayer on this board...

[Moriarty]

Interesting in that he's gotten somewhat of a reputation as a bumslayer on this board...

Yeah, it's a very true rep.

And it's why they desperately want him out on the field, racking up numbers against the Giants and Lions, not Daniel.

[G08]

Interesting in that he's gotten somewhat of a reputation as a bumslayer on this board...

It's a fair criticism

[G08]

I don't know why everyone can't agree that the most likely scenario is that Mitch is an average QB. I mean... that's what average is all about. Once we all let go the draft circumstances and talk about "what do we do if we have an average quarterback" we'll all feel more sane.

It certainly is possible. I'm just of the opinion he's still in the incubator so I hesitate to make a declaration that he's a bust or top 10 QB until it seems his development is done. The way this seems to be shaking out, he's got the rest of this year to determine how much leeway he gets, if any, in 2020.

[BR0D1E86]

Interesting in that he's gotten somewhat of a reputation as a bumslayer on this board...

It's a fair criticism

If be curious to see that for last season too, at a glance he played the following bottom 10 dvoa teamss last year..

GB, DET, TB, MIA. Another game was against the 21st ranked defense, but we'll keep it to bottom 10. So
5 games (he missed a Detroit game). The Giants were bottom 10, but he missed the game.

GB - 23/35 // 171 yd // 0 TD // 0 INT
TB - 19/26 // 354 yd // 6 td // 0 INT
MIA - 22/31 // 316 yd // 3 td // 1 int
DET - 23/30 // 355 yd // 3 td // 0 INT
GB - 20/28 // 235 yd // 2 td // 0 int

So total 106/154 (68%) // 286 ypg // 14 TD // 1 INT.

On the season he threw for 24 TDs and 12 interceptions. So against everybody else he threw 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

That was also About 1450 yards, so about 45% of his total on the season. His season completion percentage was about 66 so not drastically different there.

[G08]

This, to me, screams adjustments

[Richie]

It's a fair criticism

If be curious to see that for last season too, at a glance he played the following bottom 10 dvoa teamss last year..

GB, DET, TB, MIA. Another game was against the 21st ranked defense, but we'll keep it to bottom 10. So
5 games (he missed a Detroit game). The Giants were bottom 10, but he missed the game.

GB - 23/35 // 171 yd // 0 TD // 0 INT
TB - 19/26 // 354 yd // 6 td // 0 INT
MIA - 22/31 // 316 yd // 3 td // 1 int
DET - 23/30 // 355 yd // 3 td // 0 INT
GB - 20/28 // 235 yd // 2 td // 0 int

So total 106/154 (68%) // 286 ypg // 14 TD // 1 INT.

On the season he threw for 24 TDs and 12 interceptions. So against everybody else he threw 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

That was also About 1450 yards, so about 45% of his total on the season. His season completion percentage was about 66 so not drastically different there.

I've been saying this for a while. So, I'm just going to do one official post to layout my point here and shutup about it forever to please the forum.

Mitch has 3 total anomaly flare-up games in 2018 and then an utterly putrid career.

These 3 games are responsible for the entire mirage that were his total surface numbers.

Last year damn near half his TD passes came from the TB/GB/DET games. Those three games also account for more than one quarter of his total TD passes across his 3 seasons of starting.

In those 3 games: 64 for 84 76.1% CMP 944 yards 11.23 Y/A 14.75 Y/C 11 TD's 0 INT's 151 QB Rating

Outside of those three games. His career numbers are as follows (going into today; PFR has not updated his career stats).

32 games 597 for 970 61% CMP 6,056 Yards 6.2 Y/A 10.1 Y/C 29 TD's 23 INT's 79.7 QB Rating

His 2018 numbers are as follows:

11 games 225 for 350 64% CMP 2279 yards 6.5 Y/A 10.1 Y/C 13 TD's (3.7%) 12 INT's (3.4%) 80.8 QB Rating

This is, of course, totally in-line with his career and justifies my continued belief that Trubisky never actually progressed last season.

This post is the QB that Mitchell Trubisky came into the league as. It's who he still is today. It's (in the vast majority of likelihood) who he always will be.

[Richie]

This, to me, screams adjustments

60 attempts is a very small sample size and all it would take is one bad 3rd quarter to create a lot of regression.

However, yes... it does seem that we come out of the 3rd quarter with some new advantageous looks. It's very concerning, though. That this generally only lasts one drive (two max) before we regress right back to where we were. Meaning, they adjust no problem.

[G08]

[docc]

Rodgers..38 attempts..104 yards..78 NET after 5 sacks..
Tuff night..even if it was Mitch..

[mmmc_35]

Rodgers..38 attempts..104 yards..78 NET after 5 sacks..
Tuff night..even if it was Mitch..

Rodgers looked like hot garbage. Luckily he has a track record because Packer fans wanted him shot.

[southdakbearfan]

Rodgers..38 attempts..104 yards..78 NET after 5 sacks..
Tuff night..even if it was Mitch..

Rodgers looked like hot garbage. Luckily he has a track record because Packer fans wanted him shot.

And that pretty much sums up fan GM mentality.

[mmmc_35]

Laugh well Packer fans are in general dumb, and entitled at at the QB position. Bad combo.


QUESTION ( maybe this should be a poll)

You're a GM of a new franchise. Who do you take... Mitchell Trubisky or Daniel Jones?

[G08]

Laugh well Packer fans are in general dumb, and entitled at at the QB position. Bad combo.


QUESTION ( maybe this should be a poll)

You're a GM of a new franchise. Who do you take... Mitchell Trubisky or Daniel Jones?

Trubisky. And I hire Kyle Shanahan as his head coach.

[Mikefive]

Laugh well Packer fans are in general dumb, and entitled at at the QB position. Bad combo.


QUESTION ( maybe this should be a poll)

You're a GM of a new franchise. Who do you take... Mitchell Trubisky or Daniel Jones?

Trubisky. And I hire Kyle Shanahan as his head coach.

Love me some Kyle Shanahan.

[Richie]

I mean really? That's where we're at?

There is a serious lack of understanding of numbers and statistics going on here, if we think we can pick out one or two examples across all of history and hundreds & hundreds of players... and then try to make the case that the cherry-picked example is the probable outcome, or even a remotely likely outcome. I mean... really.

My only answer to that is #OKbearfan

Oh, it's so much worse than that with G08.

Brees numbers in that signature are actually head/shoulders better than Trubisky's in his three years. The average QB rating was 80.0 flat as recently as 2006 and the average CMP% still in the high 50's.

Brees numbers in the early-mid 2000's were above average. Those numbers for Mitch are putrid and towards the bottom of the league all around.

Mitch plays in an era and game where a QB rating in the low to mid 90's and a CMP in the mid 60's is the norm.

Oh, and let's not forget that by year #3? Brees was setting the world ablaze with 27 TD's 7 INT's and leading his team to a 12 win season. Top 5 in practically every statistical category.

It does not get more dishonest than what his signature is insinuating.

It's so bad that it's actually (IMO) an assault on the intelligence of everyone who posts here. He assumes we won't notice the BARRAGE of issues.

I like the guy, I like his enthusiasm. But good lord. I just don't care for dishonesty.

[G08]

The vitriol you guys have is misplaced here... it's sad.


2002-2005 league average was 80.5
2017-2019 league average is 90.2

Would you like a ratio including those numbers?

Brees was 1.00 while Trubisky is 0.947



Clearly I'm deceiving the masses doing these weekly updates. Zero context provided in these game-for-game direct comparisons. You got me.

[The Marshall Plan]

The vitriol you guys have is misplaced here... it's sad.


2002-2005 league average was 80.5
2017-2019 league average is 90.2

Would you like a ratio including those numbers?

Brees was 1.00 while Trubisky is 0.947



Clearly I'm deceiving the masses doing these weekly updates. Zero context provided in these game-for-game direct comparisons. You got me.

Dude, don't let it get to you.

[IE]

If we're going back in time for player comps, I personally believe the Harbaugh one is the best for many reasons. That is who 10 is.

The Brees thing is just silly. It isn't vitriol - it's laughing at the absurd. Speaking of ex Wolverine QBs... someone could argue that 10 has stats similar to Tom Brady in his 2nd and 3rd years too. That's how misleading these data comps are in isolation.

[mmmc_35]

I'm glad mitches hip healed