Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

[IE]

I agree with all this, and that thinking 10 is going to all the sudden click... is pretty crazy, if crazy means putting all your chips on the number 10 and letting the wheel spin. The common denominator across all the under-performance is 10. Nagy certainly didn't do him any favors but If I had to pick one or the other because of more upside, it would be Nagy.

I'll forgive Pace, as long he doesn't effectively double-down on 10 and only bring in some journeyman backup. I want 3 starting-capable guys (if we can include 10 in that category). 10, a good FA AND a high draft pick. Pace MUST get this right this time- this year.

Pace's plan to make sure he got the QB position right 3 years ago was similar, so I know he gets it. Unfortunately for him, neither the FA or the high draft pick worked out, and his hedge failed. He needs to hedge again, and spread that risk as thin as he can. It is TOO important.

[dplank]

Yea I tend to agree with most of it...although my innate homerism won't let me completely let go of the possibility that Trubisky turned a bit of a corner late in the season and maybe, just maybe, he'll show us something next year. I thought he had a pretty gutsy performance in the loss at GB TBH...

[southdakbearfan]

If you are a GM and looking to the fans for direction in how you should run your franchise and what moves should be made, you will very soon be an ex-GM.

[BreadNCircuses]

If you are a GM and looking to the fans for direction in how you should run your franchise and what moves should be made, you will very soon be an ex-GM.

Unless you are literally bottom of the barrel
I wonder if Matt Millen would have had more success if he'd looked to the fans for direction more.

Even if Trubisky ends up not taking the next step and we move on from him in 2021 or 22, Pace's overall success-rate makes a case for him being, at least, top half or even the bottom of the upper third of NFL GMs.

[Drone7]

Not sure I want to get into an argument, but you and some others here seem to minimize his mistakes building the O. He has made several major mistakes there, and I see no reason to believe he understands how to evaluate O positions and QBs after those blunders.

Why should ANYONE believe he would get a long term replacement QB right after the Glennon and Trubisky blunders if Trubisky doesn't pan out this season? Especially when near future draft slots are unlikely to be high.

Why is it so terrifying for people to bring in another GM that might evaluate O and QBs better? The D is good and he did a good job on that side of the ball, so a new GM would have more to work with than Pace had when he started.

btw...where did I arrogate that Pace should listen to me? I simply stated that ownership should be concerned about his record evaluating O.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Pretty devastating article IMO. 73% choose Winston over Trubisky.....ouch.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... -look-away

Social media is a great place to go to get outside the bubble of Bears fandom and gather a better sense of what the national opinion of a player is. In the case of Trubisky, that opinion isn't a positive one, as proven in a poll posted by Evan Silva, a nationally respected fantasy football writer.

Silva posed a simple question:

You are GM of an NFL franchise. You have no access to Patrick Mahomes, any actually good quarterback, or any fountain of rookie hope. These are your only 3 available building-block QB options and you must pick from them & them only: Mitch Trubisky, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston?

The results are pretty astonishing, even for those of us who've deboarded the Trubisky train. More than 73% of the 23,000 votes favored Winston. Then came Hill, with over 17% of the votes. Bringing up the rear was Trubisky, who was hovering around 10%.

What does all this mean? First, it goes to show how little respect Trubisky has from football fans as a viable starter in 2020. Second, it may be time to consider Winston a legitimate option as a replacement. His upside is worth the risk of his turnover downside.

"Evan Silva, a nationally respected fantasy football writer" might have something to do with the result.

As soon as I read that my first thought was 'I bet Winston scored a lot higher in fantasy football than Trubisky'. Never having been interested in fantasy football I did a quick Google search and the first one that came up was this: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... t=1&end=17

They had Winston, a turnover machine, ranked the number 4 QB last season, ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garopollo.

Trubisky was ranked 25th.

It's reasonable to expect that the majority of fans completing a poll by a fantasy football writer are likely to be those who play fantasy football and that their assessment will be skewed by that.

In addition, the avalanche of negative publicity surrounding Trubisky because of a) the trade made to acquire him and b) the fact that Mahomes and Watson have both far exceeded any expectations will inevitably further sour fans against Trubisky. Most will barely have seen the Bears play and will just be looking at the statistics and his highlighted errors on sports round-ups.

None of that is to suggest Trubisky had an underrated season and was actually rather good. He didn't and he wasn't. But when you factor in everything else that was wrong with the Bears offense this season, it's a harsh judgement to lay all the blame at his feet.

[Z Bear]

I guarantee you that if they ran that poll in Tampa it would be the exact opposite. Most Bucs fans can't wait to run Crab Legs out of town.

[dave99]

A bad offensive line did not cause Trubisky to stare down receivers, miss open ones (even with time) or account for his lack of ability to diagnose NFL defenses.
Neither for that matter did bad tight ends and spotty to stupid play calling.
Pace has a distressing tendency to ignore floors and experience in favor of ceilings that sometimes only he can see.

See, that big cloud there? It looks just like Drew Brees!

That can and has paid off big in the fourth or fifth round but is often a prescription for disaster in the first and second.

So, let’s get real. Mitch is not the second coming of Drew Brees or even Drew Bledsoe. Rather he is about to take his place in the large and sad assembly of Chicago Bear quarterback busts. Given the draft capital and opportunity cost expended, he might very well be first among equals.

Look around in a couple of years and you will find him on someone’s sideline, holding a clipboard and safely removed from any but the remotest chance of actually playing.

Once again, the Bears have hitched their wagon to a rock disguised as star. In another year or two, we will be told to be patient while the hapless McCaskey’s reload, reboot and rewind for one more shot.

In the meantime, we all got to watch the 2 quarterbacks we passed on get to the playoffs with one winning MVP in the Super Bowl
I know Pace was watching. I hope he learned something.

But I doubt it.

[IE]

If you are a GM and looking to the fans for direction in how you should run your franchise and what moves should be made, you will very soon be an ex-GM.

GMs looking for fan input to make decisions would be a bad sign. That has nothing to do with the actual topic or whether fans do or do not have a good sense of what needs to happen. And following fantasy football doesn't disqualify someone from having an informed opinion about actual football. There is some "shoot the messenger" in these responses. Not just yours.

Bear fans in particular are desperate to see success at the QB position. To the point where it does tend to result in people rationalizing and doubling down on emotional investments.

This informal "poll" is not scientific and doesn't need to be discredited really. But these things can be useful as a self-check. To Bear fans in their echo chamber it may feel like even a majority of knowledgeable football folk think 10 will turn it around. And some that really believe that in a hard-core way then get some comfort when other fellow fans refrain from criticism because they still have slim "hope" he'll turn it around and also mostly just don't want to waste mental cycles being down on the team. But that echo chamber skews perceptions and reality is very few people outside of that Bear bubble think it is going to turn around for 10. And this poll is just an unfortunate slap in the face with that. "They don't know, because they follow fantasy football?" ... not sure that is disqualifying, and I'd guess many or most that are fans enough to follow blogs are just like all us.

Big couple of months coming up, to get insight into what Pace, Nagy & friends really think.

[G08]

I guarantee you that if they ran that poll in Tampa it would be the exact opposite. Most Bucs fans can't wait to run Crab Legs out of town.

Yep. Don't really give a shit what out of town fans think about this team.

[Drone7]

When Grossman won player of the month, there were Bears' fans that supported giving him a lucrative contract extension...fortunately management didn't bite.

When Cutler underperformed, many of the same people pointed fingers at surrounding cast and supported Emery's front-loaded extension, which didn't pan out.

Now many of the same are urging patience with Trubisky, blaming collegiate inexperience sitting behind a Canadian League, XFL backup QB... then NFL surrounding cast, but somehow absolving the GM that assembled this cast.

[G08]

Grossman was never the same after destroying his ankle so what he did for a 6 game stretch in 2006 doesn't really matter. I don't recall anyone on the boards I frequented pushing for a lucrative contract extension, but who knows.

Cutler had the full Chicago Bears QB experience, ranging from garbage targets to 6 different offensive coordinators in 8 seasons. If any NFL QB has had success changing coordinators that many times, let me know.

I don't think "many of the same" people pushing for a "lucrative contract extension" for Grossman are the same who pointed to the mismanagement of Cutler nor the same who are urging patience with Trubisky. The situations obviously are unrelated and this regime knew full well that they were drafting the least experienced QB to ever be taken in the first round (post NFL/AFL merger).

If you or others don't think that patience was a part of his development plan, I don't know what to tell you. It just seems like bitching just for the sake of bitching to me. 3 years in the league, 2 years in this offense and the fact that he's not lighting the world on fire has people ready to pull the plug?

Yikes.

[dplank]

If you or others don't think that patience was a part of his development plan, I don't know what to tell you. It just seems like bitching just for the sake of bitching to me. 3 years in the league, 2 years in this offense and the fact that he's not lighting the world on fire has people ready to pull the plug? I'm glad they are not in charge of this team.

JMO, but I think this is painting the "anti-Mitch" take unfairly. Here's a few counter points:

1. "Not lighting the world on fire" is fundamentally different than being a Bottom 3 QB. So I find this phrasing disingenuous and not accepting of the reality of the season he just finished. If he were a middle of the pack QB but not lighting the world on fire yet, I highly doubt that you'd have the level, and vitriol, of defectors that you see today and your point would hold water. But that's just not what happened. Cutler was a middle of the pack QB for many years and I defended him and blamed situational issues all the way through his career - still believe it actually. But Cutler was never a bottom 3 QB.

2. "People ready to pull the plug" is fundamentally different than "wanting to bring in competition". If the #2 overall pick can't beat out the likes of Case Keenum or Andy Dalton (my two preferred options), then why in the world should we believe he's our answer at QB? Having a season as bad as the one he just completed forces the teams hand IMO.

3. The "3 years in the league, 2 years in this offense" is a remnant of the past IMO. Many, many QB's come out and have success in their first year or second year. And if not by then, then certainly by their 3rd year. No one would draft a player that you only have under control for 4-5 years if they honestly believed that the first 3 years would be throw away years dedicated to development. That's basically taking a high pick and turning into a development project for another team, it's just nuts. If you've gotten steady playing time for 3 years and aren't improving (in fact, regressing), then it's 100% fair to think there's a strong chance he just doesn't have it and it's time to hedge your bet. That's prudent behavior. Painting those who see this as impatient fan turds isn't fair IMO.

JMO, still love you homie

[G08]

Those are fair points, I was moreso addressing the sect of fans that want him gone regardless. It's just not realistic or practical.

To me, the best approach is to use this off-season to build up the offense as much as you possibly can. Give #10 every chance to succeed and if he doesn't, cut bait after the season and draft a rookie in the first round in 2021. That kid can come in to what hopefully will be an offense ready to take off.

[Drone7]

Problem I have with that scenario is the Bears' 2021 first rounder is likely to be middle of the pack, so not an elite prospect for Pace? to evaluate. He didn't even have the diagnostic skills to do the job when 2 franchise QBs were staring him right in the face, much less iffier prospects.

If Trubisky fails, he needs to go.

[southdakbearfan]

Those are fair points, I was moreso addressing the sect of fans that want him gone regardless. It's just not realistic or practical.

To me, the best approach is to use this off-season to build up the offense as much as you possibly can. Give #10 every chance to succeed and if he doesn't, cut bait after the season and draft a rookie in the first round in 2021. That kid can come in to what hopefully will be an offense ready to take off.

Agree 100 percent.

I wouldn't even pick up the 5th year option on him. You can always franchise him so why risk an injury screwing the cap.

If he hits then you franchise/sign him, if no move on.

I don't want to see them screw the cap over so badly that nothing can be fixed as there was a heck of a lot more than Mitch wrong with the offense last season. The absolute best case is he does work out. If he doesn't then you try to bring someone in or burn it down next year.

Too many people are just way to fickle as it pertains to players and think it just as easy as saying go get a QB. Every QB truly on the market has serious warts, most a lot more than Trubisky.

We aren't getting Brady or Brees, Teddy would be run out of town on rails after 10 games, seriously go look at what he has done as a starter over his career. He is a checkdown artist very safe player. Keenum was a one year wonder in MN and pretty much trash before and since. Dalton has never won anything, ever. Winston is a freaking turnover monster and so is Rivers. Mariotta stunk in the exact offense Tannehil became the highest rated passer in the NFL, with exactly the same personnel.

Carr is the only option I would be interested in, if you could unload Mitch in getting him and not mortgage another 2 drafts to do it.

[thunderspirit]

I don't think anyone is suggesting the Bears shouldn't bring in competition for Trubisky. The difference in opinion seems to be in who that completion should be, and relatedly, how possible such an acquisition might be.

As for me: I have zero interest in Winston, am disinterested in Dalton, lukewarm on Keenum, am confident the Bears could be outbid in any attempt for Carr, and don't forsee the Bears drafting a QB with one of their 2nd round picks. That automatically limits what I would be in favor of doing, even if the presupposition is that the Bears will make such a move.

[G08]

I'd be fine with Andy Dalton as a stopgap. I'd love Derek Carr but I just don't see that happening.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

The grass is always greener... but the truth is free agent QBs rarely lead to success. They're available for a reason. Right now there are swathes of both Bears and NFL fans that have written Trubisky off and, as the poll that started this thread shows, nevertheless believe that another team's cast off is better. Personally, like G08 and southdakbearfan, I'd rather cling to Trubisky's potential to improve for one more year than worry about bringing in a free agent to compete with him.

Here's a reason why. In three years, Trubisky’s highest passer rating for a season is 95.4.

Here’s how various potential replacements compare:

Winston (5 seasons)
0 seasons with a higher rating
Best rating 2018: 92.2

Mariota (5 seasons)
1 season with a higher rating
2019: 95.6

Bridgewater (5 seasons, 2 barely played due to injury)
1 season with a higher rating
2019: 99.1

Carr (6 seasons)
2 seasons with a higher rating
2016: 96.7
2019: 100.8

Tannehill (7 seasons)
1 season with a higher rating
2019: 117.5

Keenum (8 seasons, barely played in first 3)
1 season with a higher rating
2017: 98.3

Foles (8 seasons, average of 7 games a season)
3 seasons with a higher rating
2013: 119.2 (13 games, 10 starts)
2016: 105.4 (3 games, 1 start)
2018: 96.0 (5 games, 5 starts)

Dalton (9 seasons)
1 season with a higher rating
2015: 106.2

Newton (9 seasons, one with just 2 games)
1 season with a higher rating
2015: 99.4

All the focus is on Trubisky's 2019 season, but until next year we don't know if this was a bump along the road or a sign that he's heading towards being a bust. What we do know is that none of the above, with the possible exception of Carr, has shown anything in their longer careers to suggest that they're the answer in place of Trubisky.

The last thing this team needs is to dump Trubisky on the grounds of cost and performance and then turn the team over to a similar standard QB who has already hit their ceiling and will cost a whole lot more.

Recent NFL history points towards top QBs hitting the ground running and posting high ratings within their first three seasons, so the most likely outcome is that Trubisky is going to be another QB in the same ballpark performance-wise as all the others listed above and not make the leap to elite. The Bears only real hope of finding a top QB is therefore going to be striking it big in the draft and the odds are against them doing so this year with no first round pick.

Therefore they may as well go all in on Trubisky for one more season regardless of what the media or fans may think.

[Drone7]

Some of his 83 rating was dealing with his bum left shoulder, but the primary reason was that teams learned how to defense him/them by studying their tendencies during the off season. You seem oblivious to that. It also contributed to an inflated performance in 2018 when teams didn't know how to defend him and the new offense.

[G08]

I'm sure his shoulder played a role in his worsened performance this season, but I don't think it was only defenses learning our tendencies so much as Trubisky, at times, missing big plays and open targets.

To me, he was mentally overwhelmed to the point where he wasn't able to execute basic zone-read plays that he was running in college. Either he fights his way through that or he's broken.

This off-season, I hope he focuses on sharpening his mechanics -- both footwork and throwing motion. This needs to be flawless by the time he gets out on the field to develop timing with our weapons. Mentally, he needs to burn though every second of tape he has going against defenses. Look for tells, find hints, understand what they are doing to confuse him pre-snap / post-snap.

He's a worker so I don't anticipate him not focusing on his flaws this off-season, we'll see what happens on the field. Protect him and get him a legit TE and I think we'll see a different QB in 2020.

[BR0D1E86]

Those are fair points, I was moreso addressing the sect of fans that want him gone regardless. It's just not realistic or practical.

To me, the best approach is to use this off-season to build up the offense as much as you possibly can. Give #10 every chance to succeed and if he doesn't, cut bait after the season and draft a rookie in the first round in 2021. That kid can come in to what hopefully will be an offense ready to take off.

Anyone who flat wants him gone isn't in touch with reality (unless there's some sort of realistic way to get Carr, then don't let the door hit you, Mitch). But I think it's equally insane to not want a more realistic challenger as a backup than Chase Daniel. (Not saying that's your position)

[BR0D1E86]

Some of his 83 rating was dealing with his bum left shoulder, but the primary reason was that teams learned how to defense him/them by studying their tendencies during the off season. You seem oblivious to that. It also contributed to an inflated performance in 2018 when teams didn't know how to defend him and the new offense.

His 2018 season was remarkably similar to 2019 if you subtract that perfect storm of a TB game. 2800 yards in 13 games (220 a game) and 18 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

I'm generally not a "but if that game never happened" guy, but it's such a ridiculous statistical outlier that I think it isn't crazy in this case.

The big difference, obviously, is he was such a huge threat running in 2018 and it made a massive difference in the offense. But as a passer he wasn't remarkably different.

[southdakbearfan]

Some of his 83 rating was dealing with his bum left shoulder, but the primary reason was that teams learned how to defense him/them by studying their tendencies during the off season. You seem oblivious to that. It also contributed to an inflated performance in 2018 when teams didn't know how to defend him and the new offense.

I don't know if it was so much as Mitch's tendencies, but the offense in general. Mitch was no doubt part of it, but there is a lot more too it than that.

They were devoid of TE production, which hurts a lot. Even average TE production would have changed a lot of games. Burton had the most receptions at 14 and no TE topped 100 yds receiving.

Cohen was average at receiving and below average running and he was really explosive in 18 at both.

The running game and line play was pretty abysmal, which I believe the line created most the issues with the running game which in turn makes it a lot more difficult to keep calling runs when you are sub 4 ypc all the time. When we stop running you take an offense which had limited weapons and eliminate the play action threat.

Robinson was probably the lone real bright spot on offense, Miller did come on some at the end but he had some head scratchers and it is concerning he cannot be consistent. 1/2 of his yardage came in 3 games and he was basically absent 5 games at least.

They had to get cute way to often with trickery because of a crap running game, line play, only one WR balling and basically no TE threat.

It's pretty hard to sustain drives when you look back at exactly what was going on with the offense.

[UOK]

Merging with already stickied Trubisky circle jerk thread.

[IE]

Some of his 83 rating was dealing with his bum left shoulder, but the primary reason was that teams learned how to defense him/them by studying their tendencies during the off season. You seem oblivious to that. It also contributed to an inflated performance in 2018 when teams didn't know how to defend him and the new offense.

I'm generally not a "but if that game never happened" guy, but it's such a ridiculous statistical outlier that I think it isn't crazy in this case.

I think you have to look at that. If you're looking for evidence, you don't discount evidence that doesn't help your case. The distribution of his "success" across his career is my biggest concern about Mitch. His established track record as a bum-slayer is a HUGE flashing red warning light. It isn't just that Tampa game. It is almost all the 3 TD games he has had have been put up against teams that are simply not competitive. At the end of the day, you want a QB who can contribute to beat good teams - I mean really contribute offensively to putting a good team away every now & again. To me, that is what a "flash" is - it isn't an occasional dime or a fastball into a tight spot. It is beating somebody good, and winning because of the QB play. I can't think of a really good team we can say honestly that Mitch has beaten. The Cowboys are close, and that was a huge win. But if you look at their Home/Away record last year you see that on the road they were like the Lions and at home the Niners. (EDIT: went back to last year, and I'll consider giving him the GB game in Chicago... it just isn't enough)

G - I agree with the one point you made about him not being able to do things he needs to do. I do think it is his head more than his footwork and mechanics. My fear is the game at the NFL level is simply too fast and complicated for him. And it doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. He even struggled against the Vikes backups. I fear DCs have figured out that he is easy to distract and fool. And that reminds me of the frustration with Cutler against the Pack to a certain extent. They knew how to play him, and even bragged about it.

I also think Mitch has really big problems with touch and timing that I fear are not things that are easily addressable in your mid-20s. Some kids have it; some don't. Not accuracy - where mechanics will help. I think he looks like a major league pitcher out there trying to play football, and his passing is super-sketchy if he isn't using his fastball. He's got a little Mitch Williams in him, and we really need more Greg Maddux.

[wab]

I guarantee you that if they ran that poll in Tampa it would be the exact opposite. Most Bucs fans can't wait to run Crab Legs out of town.

Yep. Don't really give a shit what out of town fans think about this team.

Sometimes in-town fans are worse.

[dplank]

Yea, if you haven't been, you should see what it's like going to a Ravens game in Bmore, or a Philly game, or New England. Drunk, angry, want to fight everyone all the time. It's just not fun at all. I love coming to Chicago because of the nice people, and I've found that generally the fans in the stadium are pretty darn polite!

[Drone7]

Some of his 83 rating was dealing with his bum left shoulder, but the primary reason was that teams learned how to defense him/them by studying their tendencies during the off season. You seem oblivious to that. It also contributed to an inflated performance in 2018 when teams didn't know how to defend him and the new offense.

His 2018 season was remarkably similar to 2019 if you subtract that perfect storm of a TB game. 2800 yards in 13 games (220 a game) and 18 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

I'm generally not a "but if that game never happened" guy, but it's such a ridiculous statistical outlier that I think it isn't crazy in this case.

The big difference, obviously, is he was such a huge threat running in 2018 and it made a massive difference in the offense. But as a passer he wasn't remarkably different.

Agree with your comments. Tampa game was definitely an outlier. That was one of the least competent pass defenses I've ever seen and it significantly boosted his 2018 stats.

Pro DCs are hardworking and insightful. Give them months to study a QB and an offense and they will come up with better schemes. They learned to keep him in the pocket better with more controlled rushes or spying. And they studied how to bring pressure up the A gaps with the Bears' weaknesses when Daniels was at center--getting pressure in his face. They knew the route combinations; and how to vary coverages better. It wasn't just Trubisky affected: they also hampered Cohen and had better reads on their assortment of running plays; better insight into what the Bears liked to do in the red zone.

[IE]

Comparison of QBs annual ratings can be very misleading. All QBs have "good" games and "bad" games. To really see who a guy is, throw away a couple of the outlier games in a season (both good and bad)- that's who they really are for the most part.

Consistency is incredibly important, if you hope to beat good teams and actually go somewhere. If you're only putting up TDs in 1/2 of the games against bums, then you're doomed to the purgatory of 8-8 seasons and "what ifs" and "if onlys". Mariota got benched in game 6 and he had already put up two 3 TD games and 1200 yards...