Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

The latest Bears news and talk

Moderators: wab, RING4CHI, Pagan

Fumblebuck
MVP
Posts: 1060
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:22 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am

QB experience shouldn't be measured by year or starts. Pass attempts is the key. Throw out the first 1000 attempts of any QB. Look at pass attempts 1000 to 1500 and that indicates who a QB is. 99% of the time it will mirror what their career numbers will end up being.
User avatar
dplank
Pro Bowler
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am

JMO, but I don't buy that Mitch needs another year either. Hoping he turns into Wentz or Brees seems highly, highly unlikely. 2019 was the year he was supposed to take off, not next year. 3rd year in the NFL, 2nd year in the same system, 4th straight year coming in to a season as the starting QB, etc etc. But instead of taking off, he flopped as badly as a high pick QB as I can remember. How we went backwards from 2018 is a major mystery to me, but I have to believe what I just saw. For the record, when asked to predict "breakout or bust" for Mitch heading in to 2019, I predicted breakout. I was drinking the koolaid. I saw all those indicators heading into 2019, and an uneven but decent year in 2018, and thought he was going to play great. I just realized that the koolaid was spiked with cat piss about 8 weeks into the season and stopped drinking it.

For each comment I read about how different qb's develop at different rates, etc etc...it seems to miss the fact that the majority of drafted QB's never develop into good players. And the simple fact is that Mitch has completed his 3rd NFL season, and finished that season as one of the worst QB's in the NFL according to almost every expert and statistical measure. National writers have given up on him, former Bears players are talking at length about how bad he was and why, etc etc etc. Generally speaking, that means he sux. It's possible everyone is wrong, but it's just not likely. And we have more evidence of him being a bad quarterback than we have of him being a good quarterback - his 2019 was awful, and his 2018 was uneven with a healthy mix of good games and total stinkers.

So just my opinion, nothing more, but after 3 years I have seen enough and would move on with a new starting QB in 2020. In part because I'm in "win now" mode and I just don't think Mitch has it mentally. I think we're better QB play and OL play away from having a shot at the SB, probably delusional about that but in my heart I'm a homer. I'm very bullish on this team still. I'm not down on it as it probably seems from other posts, I'm passionate about the changes I'd like to see BECAUSE I think we're just a "few tweaks" away from winning it all.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 5 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 20998
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:06 am

dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am
JMO, but I don't buy that Mitch needs another year either. Hoping he turns into Wentz or Brees seems highly, highly unlikely. 2019 was the year he was supposed to take off, not next year. 3rd year in the NFL, 2nd year in the same system, 4th straight year coming in to a season as the starting QB, etc etc. But instead of taking off, he flopped as badly as a high pick QB as I can remember. How we went backwards from 2018 is a major mystery to me, but I have to believe what I just saw. For the record, when asked to predict "breakout or bust" for Mitch heading in to 2019, I predicted breakout. I was drinking the koolaid. I saw all those indicators heading into 2019, and an uneven but decent year in 2018, and thought he was going to play great. I just realized that the koolaid was spiked with cat piss about 8 weeks into the season and stopped drinking it.

For each comment I read about how different qb's develop at different rates, etc etc...it seems to miss the fact that the majority of drafted QB's never develop into good players. And the simple fact is that Mitch has completed his 3rd NFL season, and finished that season as one of the worst QB's in the NFL according to almost every expert and statistical measure. National writers have given up on him, former Bears players are talking at length about how bad he was and why, etc etc etc. Generally speaking, that means he sux. It's possible everyone is wrong, but it's just not likely. And we have more evidence of him being a bad quarterback than we have of him being a good quarterback - his 2019 was awful, and his 2018 was uneven with a healthy mix of good games and total stinkers.

So just my opinion, nothing more, but after 3 years I have seen enough and would move on with a new starting QB in 2020. In part because I'm in "win now" mode and I just don't think Mitch has it mentally. I think we're better QB play and OL play away from having a shot at the SB, probably delusional about that but in my heart I'm a homer. I'm very bullish on this team still. I'm not down on it as it probably seems from other posts, I'm passionate about the changes I'd like to see BECAUSE I think we're just a "few tweaks" away from winning it all.
I'll agree that there's no flipping of a switch for Trubisky, but I do think he's not as bad as most believe. That said, I think you have to use this year as a final straw for Trubisky while having his replacement on the roster at the start of the season.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
thunderspirit
Crafty Veteran
Location: Greater Chicagoland, IL
Posts: 916
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:51 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:12 am

UOK wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:06 am
]
I'll agree that there's no flipping of a switch for Trubisky, but I do think he's not as bad as most believe. That said, I think you have to use this year as a final straw for Trubisky while having his replacement on the roster at the start of the season.
Agree with this. And QB progression isn't linear.

The offseason moves at QB will tell us everything the Bears actually think about Trubisky. If he's the only reasonable starting guy come September, I'll start handing out torches and pitchforks to people. I don't expect that, because I think they realize they have a team capable of playing with the big boys and don't want to squander it.
KFFL refugee.

This space for rent.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Location: Sweet Home Chicago
Posts: 15470
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:12 am

The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:01 am
G08 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:13 pm


I think it's fairly standard knowledge that QBs are expected to have this West Coast derivative offense click in year 3. Having 4 years of college experience in a pro-style system helps with development as well, but I'm sure some will say "stop making excuses".


Regardless, if you want to call my highlight of these facts disingenuous and outright false bullshit, I won't stop ya. I will ask where the anger comes from, though.
I've honestly never heard that 3 year rule, but the Reid tree guys you keep listing all showed pretty early results, at least by year 2. That's even if you want to go back to McNabb who was a really bad rookie in 6 games his first year, then was league average by year two, and top 10 by year 3. Mike Vick, after sitting out of football for two years also put up pretty early strong results. To me, all signs point to it actually being pretty QB friendly.
I promise you, this system is the furthest thing from QB friendly.
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:01 am
And angry I guess, but it irks me that you keep trying to paint Wentz's year three as his breakout as support for your cause and get called out and keep pretending it was. His year 2 and 3 results were nearly the same by passer rating and year 2 was the better QBR. But just keep tacking on his rookie results (when most QBs suck) and act like he broke out in year 3. Cool cool cool.
That's fair. I think I was painting the overall statistic "through 29 games" but it's 100% valid to say Wentz broke out in years 2 and 3 of this offense.

Curiously... Wentz tore his ACL in 2017 and had a 102.2 rating in 2018 coming off that torn ACL.

Let me ask you this: What happened in 2019? 93.1 rating and it was his 4th season in this offense.
Image

First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Location: Sweet Home Chicago
Posts: 15470
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am

dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am
JMO, but I don't buy that Mitch needs another year either. Hoping he turns into Wentz or Brees seems highly, highly unlikely.
I'll simply ask "why?" here and point to Alex Smith.

Again, quick-and-lazy QB-rating for reference: 79.1 through 80 games in San Francisco.

92.2 rating through his first 61 games in Kansas City, then in year 5 explodes for 104.7 rating.


Honest question to the board: to people think it's easy to learn an offense? Or that if you don't pick it up and excel at a high level almost immediately that you're a bust. There are countless examples of NFL QBs who find success when they are in the same scheme and with the same coach for multiple seasons (if not their entire career).
Image

First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
User avatar
BamaBear09
Assistant Coach
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:57 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:25 am

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:12 am
Let me ask you this: What happened in 2019? 93.1 rating and it was his 4th season in this offense.
Alshon Jeffery missed 6 games, Nelson Agholor missed 5 games... across many of the same games leaving him with Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside as his top outside targets... which made things more difficult for Ertz and Goedert underneath...

He lost each of his tackles for at least 3 games...

Basically Rome was burning around him and it caused him to finally drop below a 100 passer rating...
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20327
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:29 am

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am
dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am
JMO, but I don't buy that Mitch needs another year either. Hoping he turns into Wentz or Brees seems highly, highly unlikely.
I'll simply ask "why?"
Because he broke Bears fans' hearts. Everyone had SO MANY expectations for the 2019 season, and now they are fightin' mad about it and need someone to pin their anger on. They don't care if the next dude is better, they just care that he ain't Mitch.

Jilted lovers man...
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 20998
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:31 am

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am
Honest question to the board: to people think it's easy to learn an offense? Or that if you don't pick it up and excel at a high level almost immediately that you're a bust. There are countless examples of NFL QBs who find success when they are in the same scheme and with the same coach for multiple seasons (if not their entire career).
I don't know, but I'm assuming no NFL-quality offense is easy to pick up. And framing the second question is kind of a trap. No two NFL quarterbacks are the same, obviously, and it's never as simple as a quarterback is stupid or a offensive scheme is trash.

Everything is shades of gray. The QB may not mesh with one or several coaches, the terminology may be alien, the speed of the game overwhelming, the bond broken by overheard gossip or too sharp a criticism, the quarterback read something online that really shook him, he's got a substance abuse problem, he's losing love for the sport, any combination of these and a million other elements.

Trubisky and Nagy, on the surface anyway, seem to have a great rapport. Mitch seemingly has a good relationship with teammates and coaches, a stable and unremarkable personal life, and his major hangups are all seemingly related to confidence and technique. But we just don't know. Makes it all the more frustrating.

Ideally Mitch comes into his own next year and takes the reins of his career back. There is no other better outcome.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 20998
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:32 am

wab wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:29 am
G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am


I'll simply ask "why?"
Because he broke Bears fans' hearts. Everyone had SO MANY expectations for the 2019 season, and now they are fightin' mad about it and need someone to pin their anger on. They don't care if the next dude is better, they just care that he ain't Mitch.

Jilted lovers man...
The "someone to pin their anger on" will pretty much always be the quarterback or the kicker. Add that to a city that's been haunted by quarterback frustration forever, and boom.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20327
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:37 am

UOK wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:32 am
wab wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:29 am

Because he broke Bears fans' hearts. Everyone had SO MANY expectations for the 2019 season, and now they are fightin' mad about it and need someone to pin their anger on. They don't care if the next dude is better, they just care that he ain't Mitch.

Jilted lovers man...
The "someone to pin their anger on" will pretty much always be the quarterback or the kicker. Add that to a city that's been haunted by quarterback frustration forever, and boom.
It's a common theme with fans of this team. I get it, there have been decades of QB futility... but that blinds people into moving on to the next guy because we always prefer the devil we don't know to the devil we do when it comes to the QB.

I mean replacing Mitch with Mariota? They are the same guy. Dalton? Same guy. Foles? Worse. Flacco? Worse. Newton? Worse. But they aren't Mitch Trubisky... so yay?

The only realistic alternative that would be an upgrade would be Carr... and that's a logistical nightmare.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Location: Sweet Home Chicago
Posts: 15470
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:38 am

BamaBear09 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:25 am
G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:12 am
Let me ask you this: What happened in 2019? 93.1 rating and it was his 4th season in this offense.
Alshon Jeffery missed 6 games, Nelson Agholor missed 5 games... across many of the same games leaving him with Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside as his top outside targets... which made things more difficult for Ertz and Goedert underneath...

He lost each of his tackles for at least 3 games...

Basically Rome was burning around him and it caused him to finally drop below a 100 passer rating...
So one could argue the talent around you impacts your performance as a QB. If you can't protect your QB or the weapons around him are insufficient, his numbers should fall.
Image

First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Location: Sweet Home Chicago
Posts: 15470
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:41 am

UOK wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:31 am
G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am
Honest question to the board: to people think it's easy to learn an offense? Or that if you don't pick it up and excel at a high level almost immediately that you're a bust. There are countless examples of NFL QBs who find success when they are in the same scheme and with the same coach for multiple seasons (if not their entire career).
I don't know, but I'm assuming no NFL-quality offense is easy to pick up. And framing the second question is kind of a trap. No two NFL quarterbacks are the same, obviously, and it's never as simple as a quarterback is stupid or a offensive scheme is trash.

Everything is shades of gray. The QB may not mesh with one or several coaches, the terminology may be alien, the speed of the game overwhelming, the bond broken by overheard gossip or too sharp a criticism, the quarterback read something online that really shook him, he's got a substance abuse problem, he's losing love for the sport, any combination of these and a million other elements.

Trubisky and Nagy, on the surface anyway, seem to have a great rapport. Mitch seemingly has a good relationship with teammates and coaches, a stable and unremarkable personal life, and his major hangups are all seemingly related to confidence and technique. But we just don't know. Makes it all the more frustrating.

Ideally Mitch comes into his own next year and takes the reins of his career back. There is no other better outcome.
I think quarterbacks develop at their own rate, and there are myriad environmental factors that play a role (as you mentioned). Is it the right fit with the head coach? Does the offensive scheme tailor to his strengths? Can you protect him? How is your run game? Do you have quality weapons around him? How developed is he as a QB? Is he mechanically sound? Can he comfortably read defenses? Is he smart enough to grasp routes changing on the fly and are your receivers on the same page? Does he trust his receivers and his line? Etc etc etc

The one thing I am 100% certain about is that the worst thing you can do to a QB is change schemes on him every year, other year, few years (see: Smith, Alex and Cutler, Jay).
Image

First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
User avatar
BamaBear09
Assistant Coach
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:57 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:41 am

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am
Honest question to the board: to people think it's easy to learn an offense? Or that if you don't pick it up and excel at a high level almost immediately that you're a bust. There are countless examples of NFL QBs who find success when they are in the same scheme and with the same coach for multiple seasons (if not their entire career).
No, it's difficult to learn an offense... the issue I see here that makes me feel there is a major issue is the fact that in year one, Trubisky made strides and improved through the year... he was becoming an average to above average starter... he was making nice throws...

Then he steps out on the field after an entire off-season to further learn the same system and work with the same receivers.... and he looked like he had never played in an NFL game before... I concede that the line was not great that night but one of the early plays in the game that started to get me excited was when he recognized man and saw an opening and scrambled to pick up like 6 yards... I figured we would start rolling but then he spent the rest of the first half locking onto his pre-snap read and not looking to a second option... he legit did not look off his first read the entire first half... I mean, how could it be possible that something he did well the year before he couldn't do AFTER spending the offseason supposedly learning more... it leaves with the questions on how much time did he actually spend on working on the offense since it looks like he couldn't even do the basics he did the year before... that's why I have concerns... he didn't improve this year... why?

If he had taken steps to improve, I would be fine but he played worse against teams that rolled coverages post-snap and played well against teams that didn't make post-snap changes... after he started lighting up Detroit and Dallas, I was excited but reserved because I wanted to see how he performed against a DC who was going to try and fool him... GB and KC... and he went right back to making the wrong read or locking in on his pre-snap read... it means one of two things... either he didn't work on post snap adjustments during the off-season or he just CAN'T process fast enough to make post snap adjustments... I spent all season hearing people piss and moan about Nagy not being a good play caller and then watching all-22 and seeing guys schemed open on most plays and Trubisky either not waiting long enough for them to come open and check down or he wouldn't even look their way and force it to the pre-snap read...
User avatar
BamaBear09
Assistant Coach
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:57 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:45 am

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:38 am
BamaBear09 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:25 am


Alshon Jeffery missed 6 games, Nelson Agholor missed 5 games... across many of the same games leaving him with Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside as his top outside targets... which made things more difficult for Ertz and Goedert underneath...

He lost each of his tackles for at least 3 games...

Basically Rome was burning around him and it caused him to finally drop below a 100 passer rating...
So one could argue the talent around you impacts your performance as a QB. If you can't protect your QB or the weapons around him are insufficient, his numbers should fall.
I've never said that a QB all alone can make things happen... but if your QB needs everything around him to be perfect to be average... maybe he's not the guy...
User avatar
dplank
Pro Bowler
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:50 am

@G08, here's "why". The NFL is littered with failed QB draft picks, it's probably 50-1 fail vs success. Even with high draft picks, there's still a very high fail rate. Most QB's that come out of college simply can't play at an NFL level, that's a historical fact. So if after Year 3 the QB in question is ranked by every statistical measure and by just about every NFL analyst as a bust, and you already know that most QB's are in fact busts, then that appears to be the most likely conclusion of this story.

At this point, the burden of proof clearly shifts to his supporters to explain why they think he specifically will buck the odds and turn it around.

UOK edit: Removed shit
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 5 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
User avatar
AZ_Bearfan
Assistant Coach
Location: Mesa, AZ
Posts: 575
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:45 am

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... ixes-bears

Under Center Podcast with Chris Simms from Jan. 28th. Between this podcast and Kyle Long's recent comments, I really hope Nagy really sits down and listens to some of this stuff and self-scouts himself a bit.
Image
The Cooler King
Journeyman
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:49 am

Fumblebuck wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:52 am
QB experience shouldn't be measured by year or starts. Pass attempts is the key. Throw out the first 1000 attempts of any QB. Look at pass attempts 1000 to 1500 and that indicates who a QB is. 99% of the time it will mirror what their career numbers will end up being.
I don't necessarily disagree with your theory, but I think your mark is a bit high. Between passes 500-1000 would align right around y2 and most great QBs are already well into hitting their stride in year 2. Some may hit their stride not until y3. After year 3 it just keeps getting increasingly rare. There's probably a slight confirmation bias issue eventually, but I don't think its likely significant (though not sure how to prove that).
An ode to Bears fandom:
It has become the image I fix in my mind when I try something, and fail. Often, I fail miserably; Steve McQueen, in “The Great Escape,” reminds me that I’m in good company.
Credit
Fka "BillGeorge61"
Drone7
Player of the Month
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:58 am

Trubisky is currently an athlete playing QB. And, I'm sorry, but he's not a great athlete just because he can run a 4.6+ forty and peel off some good runs. A great athlete is a much more consistent playmaker that raises the play of those around him on a more CONSISTENT basis.

Mahomes is slower, but a much better athlete in terms of throwing coordination, instincts, field awareness etc...Trubisky is the kind of guy that makes a good throw on the run and we go wow, then misses a stick throw from the pocket for a first down, not just a completion impairing RAC, but a completely uncatchable throw. Before someone says, every QB does that: they do, but less often. And the deeper the throw the more erratic his skills are. He has not shown an ability to integrate coaching on his footwork so far. But don't play him in preseason--he doesn't need it. Magical thinking.

Or he'll run to the sideline and deliberately step OOB taking a loss instead of throwing OOB. Lack of basic situational awareness. Or he'll latch onto ARob on a slant bc he trusts him more...but he's covered tightly and he never shifts his eyes to see Miller streaking open backside. Again, that happens with every QB, but with him too often. And this is why i agree with Warner, that it is puzzling to follow his eyes and wonder how he processes the field. He gets stuck too long and doesn't have his head on a swivel.

If rookies Cutler. Trubisky and Montana worked out in sweats with a few receivers and no pass rush, many would rank Cutler, Trubisky, Montana. Maybe even at a blackboard afterward. But put em in some real games for awhile, and the order is Montana by a wide margin, then Cutler, and lagging, Trubisky. Joe was an underrated athlete, but it was his poise and field smarts that set him apart.

All that said, Pace and Nagy grossly overestimated Trubisky's capabilities. Pace put a below average cast around him and expected him to lift em early in his career. Deluded. Then he fancied he could hire Reid's unproven, charismatic pet Nagy and run the Chiefs' O. Deluded. Nagy had to bring Childress along to help install the O. And he foolishly hired a guy that had never game-planned NFL defenses to be his OC. Why not just hire Helfrich as a consultant and hire an NFL experienced OC since Nagy himself had very scanty play calling experience??

The 2019 season regression wasn't that shocking. They weren't really that good offensively in 2018 (did improve in the red zone). But became big for their britches. Nagy was full of himself after 12-4 with COY. Trubisky was a late addition to Hawaii, beaming in pics with Watson and Mahomes, even though they were much better players. Mr Big Pants Nagy TOLD everyone how much Mitch had improved with his knowledge of the O during the offseason. So much that he didn't even need to play him in preseason. And Leno spoke of how their OL was out to become the best in the league. So they didn't need to play together much in preseason either. Yeah.

Only one problem. While the Bears were basking, DCs around the league worked long hours watching Nagy's O and all the Bears' players and they saw their tendencies, what they did well, what they didn't.

My belief is that Trubisky might be salvageable, but only if they reorient the offense around the run and PA. Don't ask him to throw more than 35x most games. Get better players in key spots: Y TE, RG, a bigger speed receiver. And Nagy needs to listen to his new assistants more for O advice. He might even need to surrender play-calling bc HC is a big enough job.

Meanwhile, get competition at QB asap.
The Cooler King
Journeyman
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:02 pm

G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:12 am
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:01 am


I've honestly never heard that 3 year rule, but the Reid tree guys you keep listing all showed pretty early results, at least by year 2. That's even if you want to go back to McNabb who was a really bad rookie in 6 games his first year, then was league average by year two, and top 10 by year 3. Mike Vick, after sitting out of football for two years also put up pretty early strong results. To me, all signs point to it actually being pretty QB friendly.
I promise you, this system is the furthest thing from QB friendly.
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:01 am
And angry I guess, but it irks me that you keep trying to paint Wentz's year three as his breakout as support for your cause and get called out and keep pretending it was. His year 2 and 3 results were nearly the same by passer rating and year 2 was the better QBR. But just keep tacking on his rookie results (when most QBs suck) and act like he broke out in year 3. Cool cool cool.
That's fair. I think I was painting the overall statistic "through 29 games" but it's 100% valid to say Wentz broke out in years 2 and 3 of this offense.

Curiously... Wentz tore his ACL in 2017 and had a 102.2 rating in 2018 coming off that torn ACL.

Let me ask you this: What happened in 2019? 93.1 rating and it was his 4th season in this offense.
If it wasn't QB friendly I'm very impressed with Reid's QB acumen, because there would be a trail of failed QBs otherwise. Well actually I am impressed with Reid's QB acumen regardless, but I think the examples you've used don't prove the point you think it does. All your examples saw higher levels of success within just a couple years. Maybe it takes 5 years to master, but years 1-4 haven't been bad for passers historically. Granted, in the lens of the offense, I still think Nagy carries a lot of the weight of blame. I was beating that drum very early this past season when Mitch looked awful. So its not all on Mitch, but I do think Mitch has issues that go beyond his surroundings.

Why did Went have a passer rating 10 points higher than Mitch did this year? I'm not sure, but when the downside of the comp is basically at the level of what Mitch's upside has been at this point... its not a flattering comp for Mitch!

Look, I get there is a lot of nuance. But from my viewpoint Mitch already had some serious issues even after his 2018 year. He successfully overcame those in 2018 and the wheels kind of fell off the wagon in 2019. And again, it wasn't new/unforseen issues, it was the same issues that have been there for his entire career. I don't really buy your scheme theory (obviously). I'll throw out his y1 numbers to the extent I do buy/promote the theory that most rookie QBs suck. But even with the 2 additional years of data, Mitch does not in any form look like a top tier QB. He looks at best average and at worst a career backup. He may go onto a very average career, maybe get a top 10 passer rated year sprinkled in there at this point. And for 2020 he's likely the Bears best option, but if you're serious about sustained growth, you are thinking of what you need to do to find that QB who will be a top 10 passer year in and year out, and not the guy where everything looks like it has to go just right to succeed.
An ode to Bears fandom:
It has become the image I fix in my mind when I try something, and fail. Often, I fail miserably; Steve McQueen, in “The Great Escape,” reminds me that I’m in good company.
Credit
Fka "BillGeorge61"
The Cooler King
Journeyman
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:08 pm

wab wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:29 am
G08 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:16 am


I'll simply ask "why?"
Because he broke Bears fans' hearts. Everyone had SO MANY expectations for the 2019 season, and now they are fightin' mad about it and need someone to pin their anger on. They don't care if the next dude is better, they just care that he ain't Mitch.

Jilted lovers man...
My Bears expectations were pretty high, but honestly I don't think I had high expectations of Mitch, yet he still did fail to meet those. I thought, "he can be a Flacco or an Eli Manning" You can win around him and he can get hot for 3-4 games and you can win a SB. But he's overall average.

He fell well short of even those average expectations in 2019. Now I'm still HOPING he can still be a Flacco or a Manning, but last years results were very discouraging in that vein.

That said, I do still think he's the best option for 2020. But if the Bears were magically granted the top pick in the draft, I'd dump Mitch in a heartbeat, and as it stands, I'm very interested in evaluation that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier of QBs in this draft class.
An ode to Bears fandom:
It has become the image I fix in my mind when I try something, and fail. Often, I fail miserably; Steve McQueen, in “The Great Escape,” reminds me that I’m in good company.
Credit
Fka "BillGeorge61"
The Cooler King
Journeyman
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:14 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:58 am

My belief is that Trubisky might be salvageable, but only if they reorient the offense around the run and PA. Don't ask him to throw more than 35x most games. Get better players in key spots: Y TE, RG, a bigger speed receiver. And Nagy needs to listen to his new assistants more for O advice. He might even need to surrender play-calling bc HC is a big enough job.

Meanwhile, get competition at QB asap.
I think the path to "success" for Trubisky is what Shannahan has been able to do with Garappolo (I'm not bullish on Garappolo). Trubisky still has to work on some things, but I do think it would be a little easier to do so in that offense for Mitch.
An ode to Bears fandom:
It has become the image I fix in my mind when I try something, and fail. Often, I fail miserably; Steve McQueen, in “The Great Escape,” reminds me that I’m in good company.
Credit
Fka "BillGeorge61"
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 20998
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:19 pm

The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:08 pm
He fell well short of even those average expectations in 2019. Now I'm still HOPING he can still be a Flacco or a Manning, but last years results were very discouraging in that vein.

That said, I do still think he's the best option for 2020. But if the Bears were magically granted the top pick in the draft, I'd dump Mitch in a heartbeat, and as it stands, I'm very interested in evaluation that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier of QBs in this draft class.

This is one of the best stances on Trubisky to take. Expect average, don't fall in love, and keeping an open mind about him being good or garbage.

I really don't think anyone who still believes in Trubisky is delusional, nor do I think people who are selling their shares are wrong. He's still a liquid commodity.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
BamaBear09
Assistant Coach
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:57 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:44 pm

UOK wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:19 pm
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:08 pm
He fell well short of even those average expectations in 2019. Now I'm still HOPING he can still be a Flacco or a Manning, but last years results were very discouraging in that vein.

That said, I do still think he's the best option for 2020. But if the Bears were magically granted the top pick in the draft, I'd dump Mitch in a heartbeat, and as it stands, I'm very interested in evaluation that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier of QBs in this draft class.

This is one of the best stances on Trubisky to take. Expect average, don't fall in love, and keeping an open mind about him being good or garbage.

I really don't think anyone who still believes in Trubisky is delusional, nor do I think people who are selling their shares are wrong. He's still a liquid commodity.
There are some delusional people on twitter... the ones who act like if you are critical of Mitch's play you are just hating on him... or that if you don't fully believe in him at this exact moment that you don't want him to succeed... it's really an odd bunch... hell there was one guy who made a super thread and a 2 hour youtube video where he started blaming some of Mitch's issues on Allen Robinson... which drew the attention of Allen Robinson and then the guy went on to tell him he wasn't running the right routes... it was pretty hilarious...

While I am probably one of the most critical of Trubisky, I really hope he comes out next season and plays well... why would I not want him to play well? I want the Bears to win, if he is the QB leading them and they win, cool... if he can't do it, let's find the guy who can...
User avatar
dplank
Pro Bowler
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:10 pm

The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:08 pm
wab wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:29 am

Because he broke Bears fans' hearts. Everyone had SO MANY expectations for the 2019 season, and now they are fightin' mad about it and need someone to pin their anger on. They don't care if the next dude is better, they just care that he ain't Mitch.

Jilted lovers man...
My Bears expectations were pretty high, but honestly I don't think I had high expectations of Mitch, yet he still did fail to meet those. I thought, "he can be a Flacco or an Eli Manning" You can win around him and he can get hot for 3-4 games and you can win a SB. But he's overall average.

He fell well short of even those average expectations in 2019. Now I'm still HOPING he can still be a Flacco or a Manning, but last years results were very discouraging in that vein.

That said, I do still think he's the best option for 2020. But if the Bears were magically granted the top pick in the draft, I'd dump Mitch in a heartbeat, and as it stands, I'm very interested in evaluation that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier of QBs in this draft class.
@wab...how does your "jilted lovers" theory explain the national media and basically every analyst out there coming to the same conclusion about Mitch? The Mitch Backers group always seems to avoid this fact and just claim that all Bears fans, except them, are irrational people. The stats, the national analysis, the former players...all point to the same answer. I didn't sense at all that guys like Alex Brown or Matt Forte were "jilted lovers". If it's ok to label those that think Mitch isn't any good in that way, would it also be ok to label his supporters as "irrational fanboys"?
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 5 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20327
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:13 pm

For starters - I hate Twitter. It's the bottom of the barrel human beings yelling at each other.

Secondly - My stance on Mitch is that the Bears can win with him, and the tradeoff between him and some of the other guys bandied about is negligible. He's got a lot of tools to work with, but he's also still got a long way to go. The Bears can only be patient for so long, but I hate the idea of them giving up on a prospect early. I hate...HATE...starting over every 3 years.

No.. I don't want the Bears to be the Bengals (as some would suggest). I just want to see what happens with just a little continuity. People act like there is this finite window, as if there can never be another, or that sustained success is unattainable.

Mitch has one year to prove he's worth keeping around.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20327
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:15 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:10 pm
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:08 pm


My Bears expectations were pretty high, but honestly I don't think I had high expectations of Mitch, yet he still did fail to meet those. I thought, "he can be a Flacco or an Eli Manning" You can win around him and he can get hot for 3-4 games and you can win a SB. But he's overall average.

He fell well short of even those average expectations in 2019. Now I'm still HOPING he can still be a Flacco or a Manning, but last years results were very discouraging in that vein.

That said, I do still think he's the best option for 2020. But if the Bears were magically granted the top pick in the draft, I'd dump Mitch in a heartbeat, and as it stands, I'm very interested in evaluation that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier of QBs in this draft class.
@wab...how does your "jilted lovers" theory explain the national media and basically every analyst out there coming to the same conclusion about Mitch? The Mitch Backers group always seems to avoid this fact and just claim that all Bears fans, except them, are irrational people. The stats, the national analysis, the former players...all point to the same answer. I didn't sense at all that guys like Alex Brown or Matt Forte were "jilted lovers". If it's ok to label those that think Mitch isn't any good in that way, would it also be ok to label his supporters as "irrational fanboys"?
You are taking this way too personally.
Drone7
Player of the Month
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:19 pm

Saw that exchange, Bama. Too bad I didn't waste time and watch the video. :)

ARob's a virtuoso route-runner. Hoping Miller absorbs SOME of his techniques and professionalism. Miller runs some good routes, but he seems to freelance too often for his position coach's liking.
User avatar
dplank
Pro Bowler
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:23 pm

I don't mean to, I'm trying to understand. The jilted lovers explanation is one I've heard repeatedly in one form or another, with the implication being that Bears fans aren't seeing things right because they are too emotionally attached. But that doesn't explain the near unanimous agreement among professional NFL pundits nationally that Mitch isn't any good. So the jilted lovers argument doesn't hold water. I'm trying to understand how you rationalize this obvious problem with the logic.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 5 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20327
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:35 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:23 pm
I don't mean to, I'm trying to understand. The jilted lovers explanation is one I've heard repeatedly in one form or another, with the implication being that Bears fans aren't seeing things right because they are too emotionally attached. But that doesn't explain the near unanimous agreement among professional NFL pundits nationally that Mitch isn't any good. So the jilted lovers argument doesn't hold water. I'm trying to understand how you rationalize this obvious problem with the logic.
You will need to cite this near unanimous opinion. Because the opinions I see are largely mixed.

I don't know how to condense it down further, but Bears fans got out over their skis after 2018.

The Bears were expected to compete for a super bowl title. They had a down year and fell short of that expectation...for a variety of reasons, Mitch being one of them. Rather than be honest with ourselves and say "hey, maybe the Bears weren't as good as their 2018 record would suggest...and maybe the QB needs a little more time" we see people fall into the "a new QB will fix everything!" lowest common denominator.

Basically Mitch is the face of the Bears unmet, and probably unfair, expectations.

The Bears have no running game because of a questionable OL and a RB who's talent we are probably overestimating. The Bears have no tight ends due to injury and lack of talent. The Bears had key injuries on defense. The Bears suffered from inconsistent play calling. The Bears have one legitimate WR. The Bears have a young QB who came into the NFL with a steep learning curve. These are all problems that Marcus Mariota or Andy Dalton can't fix.

So why not stay with the guy you drafted and see if you can resolve some of the other issues?

Return to “Halas Hall”