Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

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Grizzled
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:35 pm

Within a few weeks, we'll start to see some light down the tunnel. I doubt they'll go after a Bridgewater, Rivers, or Carr because that is the admission that Trubiskey's not the man. Dalton, maybe Keenum in case Mitch fails early in the season. I don't think a free agent QB will win a training camp competition, egos are at stake. If they go the route of "2nd" tier guy, they need to draft a QB in the second for a long term solution.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:47 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:10 pm
wab wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:06 am

Fix'd
If you think the Bears drafted Trubisky hoping he'd develop into one of the two or three worst starting quarterbacks in the league after year three, I strongly disagree. And every single member of the front office deserves to be fired immediately.
So 2018 doesn't count then?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:53 pm

wab wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:47 pm
BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:10 pm


If you think the Bears drafted Trubisky hoping he'd develop into one of the two or three worst starting quarterbacks in the league after year three, I strongly disagree. And every single member of the front office deserves to be fired immediately.
So 2018 doesn't count then?
With one game excepted, he was basically the same passer in 2018 though. The main difference between 2018 and 2019 was his running.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:15 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:53 pm
wab wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:47 pm


So 2018 doesn't count then?
With one game excepted, he was basically the same passer in 2018 though. The main difference between 2018 and 2019 was his running.
So does it count?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:56 pm

Just curious--there must have been a few LONG sticky threads here about whether Cutler was a franchise QB. And Cutler was a better talent than Trubisky. Was it many of the same guys that kept doubling down?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:07 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:56 pm
Just curious--there must have been a few LONG sticky threads here about whether Cutler was a franchise QB. And Cutler was a better talent than Trubisky. Was it many of the same guys that kept doubling down?
There were countless Cutler threads. Countless.

I don't really recall who was for or against this or that, but I do remember, and this may disappoint you, when the writing was on the wall that we likely just saw Jay's last start, there wasn't this big orgy of "I TOLD YA SO" bullcrap.

If your BFO existence is so frustrating I don't know why some of you stick around.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:26 pm

Glad to hear it. I'm not big on blog "I told you so's". That quickly gets toxic.

However, I don't equate being a fan with accepting The Company Line. Not with this company's track record. Questioning is healthy.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:42 pm

wab wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:15 pm
BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:53 pm


With one game excepted, he was basically the same passer in 2018 though. The main difference between 2018 and 2019 was his running.
So does it count?
Sure, but if you want to make an honest statistical analysis of him, taking one game which is so far away outlier to every other performance he's ever had, it makes sense to look at his stats without it. Without one game, which is, in fact, a monstrous statistical outlier, his stats are basically the same. Taking it out gives you a much more honest look at his performance that season.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:32 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:42 pm
wab wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:15 pm

So does it count?
Sure, but if you want to make an honest statistical analysis of him, taking one game which is so far away outlier to every other performance he's ever had, it makes sense to look at his stats without it. Without one game, which is, in fact, a monstrous statistical outlier, his stats are basically the same. Taking it out gives you a much more honest look at his performance that season.
So, just to get this straight.

You are talking about an honest statistical analysis.

But, to get that honest analysis, you need to completely throw out 1 game in a 16 game season?

Does a pro trubisky guy get to throw out his absolute worst clunker of a game to in this honest statistical analysis? Do we throw out Brady's stats for half the season because he plays in the absolute weakest division and collection of teams in the NFL most years?

You throw 40 passes against the worst defense in the NFL you are going to do better than when you throw 40 passes against the best defense in the NFL. It's yearly statistical average for a reason and a season statistic for a reason.

Statistics must have changed dramatically since I took multiple classes in college.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:39 pm


First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:40 pm

If the Raiders are stupid enough to cut Derek Carr I'd pounce on him in a heartbeat.

First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:20 am

southdakbearfan wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:32 pm
BR0D1E86 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:42 pm


Sure, but if you want to make an honest statistical analysis of him, taking one game which is so far away outlier to every other performance he's ever had, it makes sense to look at his stats without it. Without one game, which is, in fact, a monstrous statistical outlier, his stats are basically the same. Taking it out gives you a much more honest look at his performance that season.
So, just to get this straight.

You are talking about an honest statistical analysis.

But, to get that honest analysis, you need to completely throw out 1 game in a 16 game season?

Does a pro trubisky guy get to throw out his absolute worst clunker of a game to in this honest statistical analysis? Do we throw out Brady's stats for half the season because he plays in the absolute weakest division and collection of teams in the NFL most years?

You throw 40 passes against the worst defense in the NFL you are going to do better than when you throw 40 passes against the best defense in the NFL. It's yearly statistical average for a reason and a season statistic for a reason.

Statistics must have changed dramatically since I took multiple classes in college.
Looking at outliers different is hardly shocking in a statistical analysis, but sure, let's throw out his best and worst game each season. I used the old school rating number in the interest of speed...

2018 - 229 ypg / 17 TD / 9 INT in 12 games
2019 - 228 ypg / 14 TD / 9 INT in 12 games

(I also threw out the game where he threw 3 passes then got hurt)

He was not a markedly different passer in 2019 than 2018. One game so dramatically skews his stats that it appears so. And fwiw, his best game is two full standard deviations above the mean, which is above the literal threshold for a statistical outlier.

So yeah, he gets credit for those stats, but if I'm analyzing him from Ryan Pace's perspective, I'm going to consider his performance without that because he's never done anything remotely like it before or since, so it's very likely not repeatable.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:09 am

G08 wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:39 pm
It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. They can't be stupid enough to cut him, because he's worth something in a trade. But if they sign Brady, that pretty much forces their hand.

And they can't do anything until they have Brady (if they get him).
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am

In general, serious statistical analysis rarely uses averages. Especially with small samples like NFL seasons.

I think the folks talking about stats should recognize why the median - the just plain "middle performance" - is more typically used to better describe a given instance in a set of events than averages. Yes - the median effectively does end up throwing out both the best performances AND the clunkers. And when you look at 10, the median certainly tells a more accurate story than the average:

2019 Median: 75 rating, 62% completions,.8-1 TD, 1 INT, 225 yards, sub-6 ypa (and nearly identical aya, which tells a lot about the nature of the completions in 2019).

2018 Median: 85 rating, 69% completions, 1.5 TD, .5 INT, 220 yards nd 6.7 ypa / 6 aya.

Drone brought up the truly abysmal games. In statistical terms, that is the Mode (the most frequent occurrence). This is the big red flag for 10. For 10 him the mode last season was a zero TD, sub-70 rating, 5ypa or less game... 6 out of 14 of his complete games were in this group. In his career, half of his games he threw for 200 or less yards (in a pass-favoring offense). And in 1/3 of his games he's thrown for zero TDs. This should be super-disturbing to everyone. More often than not, 10 throws up clunkers and cannot generate offense... over & over & over again.

And then the icing on the Mode cake: the clunkers always come against good teams, which is where you pretty much want to see the progress. As opposed to the Lions or Lions-esque teams where 10 has put up stat-skewing performances against the JV. This clear bum-slaying propensity is not a picture of development in progress, after 40 NFL starts. It just isn't. Stats against bums are not equivalent to stats against contenders. They just aren't.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:29 am

wab wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:09 am

It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. They can't be stupid enough to cut him, because he's worth something in a trade. But if they sign Brady, that pretty much forces their hand.

And they can't do anything until they have Brady (if they get him).
What are the rules and timing around FA and trade negotiations, and then what really does happen in the background? Could they realistically get everything lined up in advance (e.g. contract and trade terms), so it is just pulling the trigger when it happens?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:06 am

IE wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:29 am
wab wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:09 am

It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. They can't be stupid enough to cut him, because he's worth something in a trade. But if they sign Brady, that pretty much forces their hand.

And they can't do anything until they have Brady (if they get him).
What are the rules and timing around FA and trade negotiations, and then what really does happen in the background? Could they realistically get everything lined up in advance (e.g. contract and trade terms), so it is just pulling the trigger when it happens?
All the "unofficial" negotiations start happening at the combine, and the legal tampering period starts on March 16th...but nothing can be made official until 4pm EST on March 18.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:11 am

There is the problem. Many people think MT was good/promising in 2018. But he was medicore.
The truth is GB week 1 2018 (not 2019) was all you need to see.


MT was barely good in 1half.
20:17 TD to win game - 26 yards by RB - stop on 3rd and 1 - FG
23:24 FG to win game - 4th down play with opp. penalty 15y - yet own 46y-line farthest spot in 9 pass plays
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:18 pm

WP.1 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:11 am
There is the problem. Many people think MT was good/promising in 2018. But he was medicore.
The truth is GB week 1 2018 (not 2019) was all you need to see.


MT was barely good in 1half.
20:17 TD to win game - 26 yards by RB - stop on 3rd and 1 - FG
23:24 FG to win game - 4th down play with opp. penalty 15y - yet own 46y-line farthest spot in 9 pass plays
I literally can't understand this post.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 5 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:46 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:18 pm
WP.1 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:11 am
There is the problem. Many people think MT was good/promising in 2018. But he was medicore.
The truth is GB week 1 2018 (not 2019) was all you need to see.


MT was barely good in 1half.
20:17 TD to win game - 26 yards by RB - stop on 3rd and 1 - FG
23:24 FG to win game - 4th down play with opp. penalty 15y - yet own 46y-line farthest spot in 9 pass plays
I literally can't understand this post.
Don't fret. I legit thought he was a bot when he joined.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:26 pm

IE wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am
Shows his work
I appreciate you man. This post got me looking around for advanced metrics (WAR, EPA) that aren't behind a paywall, and I found that Sports Info Solutions is sharing a stat derived from their premium EPA product, and an attempt at improved QBR.

https://www.sisdatahub.com/players/4486

Looking at Mitch here, we see his 2018 season was an average season for Mariota, who is pretty consistent prior to last year. Dalton vacillates between slightly-better-than-2018-Mitch and around-the-same-as-2019-Mitch. Carr is clearly the best of the ones we're generally discussing. His bad seasons were only a little worse than Mitch's good season, and his numbers last year are very good.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:21 pm

IE wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am
In general, serious statistical analysis rarely uses averages. Especially with small samples like NFL seasons.

I think the folks talking about stats should recognize why the median - the just plain "middle performance" - is more typically used to better describe a given instance in a set of events than averages. Yes - the median effectively does end up throwing out both the best performances AND the clunkers. And when you look at 10, the median certainly tells a more accurate story than the average:

2019 Median: 75 rating, 62% completions,.8-1 TD, 1 INT, 225 yards, sub-6 ypa (and nearly identical aya, which tells a lot about the nature of the completions in 2019).

2018 Median: 85 rating, 69% completions, 1.5 TD, .5 INT, 220 yards nd 6.7 ypa / 6 aya.

Drone brought up the truly abysmal games. In statistical terms, that is the Mode (the most frequent occurrence). This is the big red flag for 10. For 10 him the mode last season was a zero TD, sub-70 rating, 5ypa or less game... 6 out of 14 of his complete games were in this group. In his career, half of his games he threw for 200 or less yards (in a pass-favoring offense). And in 1/3 of his games he's thrown for zero TDs. This should be super-disturbing to everyone. More often than not, 10 throws up clunkers and cannot generate offense... over & over & over again.

And then the icing on the Mode cake: the clunkers always come against good teams, which is where you pretty much want to see the progress. As opposed to the Lions or Lions-esque teams where 10 has put up stat-skewing performances against the JV. This clear bum-slaying propensity is not a picture of development in progress, after 40 NFL starts. It just isn't. Stats against bums are not equivalent to stats against contenders. They just aren't.
All I want to say that was a great post. :thumbsup:

But also depressing. :frustrated:
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:43 pm

From the Chicago Sun TImes:

Here are 20 quarterback options for the Bears
https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2020 ... trade-sign
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:14 pm

IE wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am
good stuff
:toast:
KFFL refugee.

This space for rent.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:33 am

The Grizzly One wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:21 pm
IE wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am
In general, serious statistical analysis rarely uses averages. Especially with small samples like NFL seasons.

I think the folks talking about stats should recognize why the median - the just plain "middle performance" - is more typically used to better describe a given instance in a set of events than averages. Yes - the median effectively does end up throwing out both the best performances AND the clunkers. And when you look at 10, the median certainly tells a more accurate story than the average:

2019 Median: 75 rating, 62% completions,.8-1 TD, 1 INT, 225 yards, sub-6 ypa (and nearly identical aya, which tells a lot about the nature of the completions in 2019).

2018 Median: 85 rating, 69% completions, 1.5 TD, .5 INT, 220 yards nd 6.7 ypa / 6 aya.

Drone brought up the truly abysmal games. In statistical terms, that is the Mode (the most frequent occurrence). This is the big red flag for 10. For 10 him the mode last season was a zero TD, sub-70 rating, 5ypa or less game... 6 out of 14 of his complete games were in this group. In his career, half of his games he threw for 200 or less yards (in a pass-favoring offense). And in 1/3 of his games he's thrown for zero TDs. This should be super-disturbing to everyone. More often than not, 10 throws up clunkers and cannot generate offense... over & over & over again.

And then the icing on the Mode cake: the clunkers always come against good teams, which is where you pretty much want to see the progress. As opposed to the Lions or Lions-esque teams where 10 has put up stat-skewing performances against the JV. This clear bum-slaying propensity is not a picture of development in progress, after 40 NFL starts. It just isn't. Stats against bums are not equivalent to stats against contenders. They just aren't.
All I want to say that was a great post. :thumbsup:

But also depressing. :frustrated:
Agreed, very good post IE, but very damning of Mitchell and depressing. Mitch isn't being helped a ton by Nagy's playcalling struggles, no viable TE, and poor OL play - but good QB's overcome these issues and succeed anyways. And we have no way of knowing how much of the playcalling/OL/etc is being CAUSED by Mitch missing his reads and his passes being about as accurate as Nuke LaLoosh.

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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:54 pm

Yeah - there are so many variables. They can be used to defend 10, or we could say look at those struggles across the board and label him as the common variable and core part of the problem. For example, Carr did put up 4000 yards, 69% completions and a 94 rating with an absymal Oline in '18. And he turned 6th round journeyman Waller into Kelce-light this past year when he had no other receivers. Carr makes chicken shit into chicken salad.

Me personally? I tend to be in the camp that a good QB makes people around him better more than the concept of the QB as a victim of the endless flaws of everyone around him. You have the ball in your hand, dude. Tell the guy where you want him. Tell the guy where he's missing blocks. Lead. See what is going on & react. Change the play and defend the reason why to your coach. Good QBs are in charge. Maybe Mitch is doing all that but then when it comes to the moment he throws it right into the lumberyard, Danny. I don't know if you can coach chicken salad.

I honestly don't know what to make of Nagy. I find myself hating him sometimes and hopeful about him other times. I hope his genius ends up outweighing his stubbornness.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 am

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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:44 am

No surprise because it's Pace...but ask yourself this:

If Trubisky was a FA, how many teams would he realistically start for?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:19 am

If Trubisky was a FA, how many teams would he realistically start for?
As of today at this very moment? Other than the Bears, I'd say he'd start for the...
Panthers
Dolphins
Chargers
Bucs
Bengals
Pats

Maybe the Colts, Skins, Jags.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:30 am

My take:
wab wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:19 am
If Trubisky was a FA, how many teams would he realistically start for?
As of today at this very moment? Other than the Bears, I'd say he'd start for the...
Panthers--If Newton leaves and they don't take a QB in round 1, probably
Dolphins--over Fitzmagic in a fair competition? No.
Chargers--maybe over Ty Taylor--that would be a battle.
Bucs--over Winston, no.
Bengals--over Dalton no, over Burrow no or not for long.
Pats--yeah, probably over Stidham; but Brady is still in the picture there. And I sure don't believe Belichick would want Trubisky as a long term answer--that would quickly lead to people questioning whether the dynasty was his doing or Brady's ;)

Maybe the Colts (no), Skins (maybe: Haskins has a lot to prove as a field general; and not the runner Mitch is, but I believe he has more natural passing ability than Mitch), Jags (unlikely over either Minshew and Foles).
Point being...he probably doesn't have much stature in the league with what he's shown so far...and in another place, he doesn't receive the kid gloves' treatment.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:08 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:30 am
My take:
wab wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:19 am

As of today at this very moment? Other than the Bears, I'd say he'd start for the...
Panthers--If Newton leaves and they don't take a QB in round 1, probably
Dolphins--over Fitzmagic in a fair competition? No.
Chargers--maybe over Ty Taylor--that would be a battle.
Bucs--over Winston, no.
Bengals--over Dalton no, over Burrow no or not for long.
Pats--yeah, probably over Stidham; but Brady is still in the picture there. And I sure don't believe Belichick would want Trubisky as a long term answer--that would quickly lead to people questioning whether the dynasty was his doing or Brady's ;)

Maybe the Colts (no), Skins (maybe: Haskins has a lot to prove as a field general; and not the runner Mitch is, but I believe he has more natural passing ability than Mitch), Jags (unlikely over either Minshew and Foles).
Point being...he probably doesn't have much stature in the league with what he's shown so far...and in another place, he doesn't receive the kid gloves' treatment.
I would disagree with about 80-90% of this.

Cam has sucked for a long while worse than Mitch with better talent around him.

Fits is a turnover machine.

Winston is the most turnover prone qb ever.

Taylor is an ok backup with no hope for more.

Haskins has been really bad but might have potential.

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