Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

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G08
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:27 pm

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:09 pm
That's simply not true and shows more of the same bias we've been talking about. They're betting that he will break out this year. They simply brought in an insurance policy in case he doesn't. If what you say is true, the Bears will try to trade him before training camp. If they do, I'll admit I'm wrong, but if they don't, I expect you to do the same.
Good luck with that :lol:

Nick Foles very much so is an insurance policy to Trubisky shitting the bed. Maybe Foles flat-out wins the job in training camp, who knows, but any way you dice it he's a wonderful hedge.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:26 pm

G08 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:27 pm
Yogi da Bear wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:09 pm
That's simply not true and shows more of the same bias we've been talking about. They're betting that he will break out this year. They simply brought in an insurance policy in case he doesn't. If what you say is true, the Bears will try to trade him before training camp. If they do, I'll admit I'm wrong, but if they don't, I expect you to do the same.
Good luck with that :lol:

Nick Foles very much so is an insurance policy to Trubisky shitting the bed. Maybe Foles flat-out wins the job in training camp, who knows, but any way you dice it he's a wonderful hedge.
Oh fellas... I'm not an internet talker. I talk cash - I'll bet you cash money you're wrong about him. Let's talk some real nice wagers here, and stop the risk-free dreamin/speculation! We admit we're wrong by paying cash.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:30 pm

IE wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:26 pm
G08 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:27 pm


Good luck with that :lol:

Nick Foles very much so is an insurance policy to Trubisky shitting the bed. Maybe Foles flat-out wins the job in training camp, who knows, but any way you dice it he's a wonderful hedge.
Oh fellas... I'm not an internet talker. I talk cash - I'll bet you cash money you're wrong about him. Let's talk some real nice wagers here, and stop the risk-free dreamin/speculation! We admit we're wrong by paying cash.
The last time I bet you and you lost I had to bug you to enforce the sig update :lol:

But, go on. What did you have in mind? You think Foles is the starter right now?
Image

First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:32 pm

So you're actually going to bet that we're trading Trubisky?

I'll take a part of that. What are the stakes?
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:38 pm

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:32 pm
So you're actually going to bet that we're trading Trubisky?

I'll take a part of that. What are the stakes?
Ditto. I'll play :evilgrin:
Image

First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 pm

The notion that we're going to trade Mitch and eat 5 mil is equally as silly as "Foles is just an insurance policy and the franchise is still totally riding Mitch into 2020". The notion that Foles is simply a "backup" or a "backup plan" can only be derived from someone whose fandom has made them extremely naïve to what's going on.

So, each of the above parties sound silly.

Bare minimum: Foles is here to directly compete for the starting job. This team was about to shell out 3 years/60 mil to Teddy Bridgewater. They gave a 4th round pick for Foles and will pay him 15.6 mil this year. They needed to have Foles agree to come here and restructure his deal.

^^^ Those aren't moves you make in order to simply bring on "insurance" to your starter. Foles didn't restructure and relocate to go be "insurance". There is 100% a competition... and Foles probably even goes in with a leg up in the organization's eyes.

These conclusions are obvious to see when you simply examine the organization's moves from a logical standpoint.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:24 pm

Richie wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 pm
The notion that we're going to trade Mitch and eat 5 mil is equally as silly as "Foles is just an insurance policy and the franchise is still totally riding Mitch into 2020". The notion that Foles is simply a "backup" or a "backup plan" can only be derived from someone whose fandom has made them extremely naïve to what's going on.

So, each of the above parties sound silly.

Bare minimum: Foles is here to directly compete for the starting job. This team was about to shell out 3 years/60 mil to Teddy Bridgewater. They gave a 4th round pick for Foles and will pay him 15.6 mil this year. They needed to have Foles agree to come here and restructure his deal.

^^^ Those aren't moves you make in order to simply bring on "insurance" to your starter. Foles didn't restructure and relocate to go be "insurance". There is 100% a competition... and Foles probably even goes in with a leg up in the organization's eyes.

These conclusions are obvious to see when you simply examine the organization's moves from a logical standpoint.
What you aren't factoring in is that we have a GM and Coach that will be shown the door if the season tanks and a roster to win right now.

If Mitch played about as well as he did in 2018 in 2019 I guarantee you this team has Chase Daniels or something very similar back again. He regressed along with the team.

Bringing Foles is a hedge against Mitch continuing to falter and not progress. The cost is what it is but part of the reason for the willingness to spend said money is a product of roster construction and the hot seat the coach and gm are in. The team is built to win now with some very expensive players that probably won't be on the team in 2021 or 2022.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:10 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:09 pm
That's simply not true and shows more of the same bias we've been talking about. They're betting that he will break out this year. They simply brought in an insurance policy in case he doesn't. If what you say is true, the Bears will try to trade him before training camp. If they do, I'll admit I'm wrong, but if they don't, I expect you to do the same.
I think they probably have or may continue to try and trade him. Though they probably still have some price though, so lack of a deal won't confirm it necessarily.

We'll have to see who's getting the snaps once team activities start.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:32 pm

southdakbearfan wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:24 pm
Richie wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 pm
The notion that we're going to trade Mitch and eat 5 mil is equally as silly as "Foles is just an insurance policy and the franchise is still totally riding Mitch into 2020". The notion that Foles is simply a "backup" or a "backup plan" can only be derived from someone whose fandom has made them extremely naïve to what's going on.

So, each of the above parties sound silly.

Bare minimum: Foles is here to directly compete for the starting job. This team was about to shell out 3 years/60 mil to Teddy Bridgewater. They gave a 4th round pick for Foles and will pay him 15.6 mil this year. They needed to have Foles agree to come here and restructure his deal.

^^^ Those aren't moves you make in order to simply bring on "insurance" to your starter. Foles didn't restructure and relocate to go be "insurance". There is 100% a competition... and Foles probably even goes in with a leg up in the organization's eyes.

These conclusions are obvious to see when you simply examine the organization's moves from a logical standpoint.
What you aren't factoring in is that we have a GM and Coach that will be shown the door if the season tanks and a roster to win right now.

If Mitch played about as well as he did in 2018 in 2019 I guarantee you this team has Chase Daniels or something very similar back again. He regressed along with the team.

Bringing Foles is a hedge against Mitch continuing to falter and not progress. The cost is what it is but part of the reason for the willingness to spend said money is a product of roster construction and the hot seat the coach and gm are in. The team is built to win now with some very expensive players that probably won't be on the team in 2021 or 2022.
Isn't Nagy/Pace's ass being on the line implied in any of our opinions? Isn't the 2020 Bears being in "win now" mode also implied? I mean, that's how I look at it.

Yeah, that cold hard truth is a huge part of what leads me to believe that Foles is A LOT more than an insurance policy.

At minimum, it's a direct competition. Nothing about what has transpired should lend itself to "Mitch is the starter and Foles is here just incase".
If Mitch played about as well as he did in 2018 in 2019 I guarantee you this team has Chase Daniels or something very similar back again. He regressed along with the team.
Of course. Perhaps I phrased that wrong.

Clearly, Mitch was more productive overall in 2018 - just looking at it in a vacuum. I was merely pointing out that a lot of it was a mirage which gave us false hope and convinced us Mitch was further along than he was. The organization clearly bought into it as well. I mean, I did at the time - despite PFF and all of these analytics putting the truth in my face. I staunchly denied it.

I mean, he was fantastic in 2 to 3 games against horrendous defenses (half of his TD's came in these games) and then collectively? The rest of the season is exactly what he was in 2019. His 2019 was basically his 2018. Just without those volatile spikes in performance and a poor run game along with a line drop off which helped to expose his shortcomings. In Trubisky's career. 95% of his games or so... it's been the exact same QB.



This is a QB competition and if anyone DOES have an upper leg? It's Foles. Not the other way around. That's what these moves involving Bridgewater and Foles lend itself to. This staff and front office is done fucking around. Mitch has to win the job. It is no his to lose. That's wishful thinking by those hanging tough in the Mitch Trubisky truther camp.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:39 pm

I agree it's a competition. But I think it's 50 50 with Mitch maybe having the benefit of being the 1 right away.

As far as 2018 goes, I would disagree. There were peaks and valleys but Mitch's performance as a whole was very good. He had a 95+ rating and his total QBR was 3rd in the league which takes into account both running and situational play. Probably the most frustrating part to the end of that season wasn't even the doinks when I look back, it was Nagy being ultra conservative the first half of the eagles game and when he turned Mitch loose he balled out and basically won it before our kicker lost it.

Anyway, I think QB play will be better this year one way or the other, I just don't think Foles is as huge of upgrade as some think looking at his entire body of work.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:36 am

Let's not forget, Mitch is a practice warrior on top of being a bum slayer. He apparently looked great in practice most of the weeks where he laid an egg in the actual game. I agree with Yogi that he just puckers out there, freezes up a bit probably from being too amped with a healthy degree of insecurity that takes root after his first mistake. I also agree that he's got far better physical tools than Foles, and that all Foles really does better is throws a more accurate ball and processes the field better. It just so happens that those are the two areas Nagy needs to improve to run his offense, and I don't believe 4 years into his career that his "puckers" are going to ever end. Some guys just don't have it, whatever "it" is.

Anyhow, point of the post is...I could absolutely see Mitch looking like the best option in practice/training camp and getting the nod to start the season. And all the Mitch backers pointing to that as proof that he's the better player. But when the lights come on, I suspect he freezes up and shits the bed again. Foles has the proverbial "ice in his veins" thing going on, he'll step in as soon as it's apparent Mitch isn't stepping up his game, and that will be the end of it. Week 4 seems about right, but I could see it as early as Week 2.

Regarding 2018 Mitch...he had 6 games over 100 QBR....but he also had 6 games under 80. He was the definition of inconsistency, half good half bad. And, QBR is heavily influenced by TD's and INT's, and with the defense literally having a historic season with turnovers and giving Mitch a short field gave Mitch a lot of red zone opportunities that he didn't have to earn by consistently moving the chains. Top that off with Nagy's 1st year and his dazzling red zone trick play success, and Mitch's TD numbers get an artificial bump in 2018 which came back down to earth in 2019 when the D didn't set him up nearly as well.

Mitch had his moments in 2018, I won't deny that. He gave me enough that I thought he was going to kick some serious ass in 2019, I was all in on him/Nagy. So it's not like I have some personal beef here. I just watched 2019 actually unfold and I'm willing to allow new facts to influence my thinking on things - and what I saw was simply disturbing. Like a baseball player with the yips, I've never seen an NFL QB shit the bed like that before. I really felt bad for the kid. Now, I just wanna move on.
Last edited by dplank on Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:40 am

Mitch needs to get back to running. It's what opened up the game multiple times in 2018. Many games in 2018 the offense would worry me early and then Mitch would scramble for a big first down and everything would start clicking. In 2019 early in the season I often times said to my wife, Mitch needs to run! Why didn't he scramble on that one?! It's what was missing and as it continued and the offense continued to sputter, I feel the team and coach panicked and then it spiraled out of control.

This team wants Mitch to be the starter, of that I am sure. Of course i've been wrong before but it's pretty easy to see the best thing for this teams future is for the light bulb to go on for Mitch this year. However the Foles trade was made simply because this team can't wait if it doesn't click immediately. Mitch will go into camp as the #1. If he comes out of camp as the #1 is a completely different story.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:42 am

I'll post this again because I see new faces and I'm bored:
G08 wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:38 pm
Did some digging for a different post, thought I'd share here. Trubisky has 29 games of experience in this offensive system, here is how he compares to his cohorts:

Trubisky: 64.7% / 6361 yards / 41 TDs / 22 INTs / 6.7 YPA / 88.7 rating

Wentz: 61.51% / 7078 yards / 49 TDs / 21 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 88.8 rating

Smith: 62.57% / 6267 yards / 41 TDs / 13 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 91.3 rating

Foles: 61.74% / 7050 yards / 47 TDs / 17 INTs / 7.66 YPA / 94.8 rating


Does this mean he'll explode in year 5 like Alex Smith? Or will he put up a 100+ rated season in year 3 like Wentz? Be a Super Bowl MVP like Foles?

No fucking idea. None. BUT... if you look at where he is in his development compared to these other QBs, he is right on par.
Right now... it feels like he an Alex Smith who throws more INTs. But, to be fair, Alex Smith had 80 games of NFL experience before getting into this system. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Image

First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm

dplank wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:36 am
Let's not forget, Mitch is a practice warrior on top of being a bum slayer. He apparently looked great in practice most of the weeks where he laid an egg in the actual game. I agree with Yogi that he just puckers out there, freezes up a bit probably from being too amped with a healthy degree of insecurity that takes root after his first mistake. I also agree that he's got far better physical tools than Foles, and that all Foles really does better is throws a more accurate ball and processes the field better. It just so happens that those are the two areas Nagy needs to improve to run his offense, and I don't believe 4 years into his career that his "puckers" are going to ever end. Some guys just don't have it, whatever "it" is.

Anyhow, point of the post is...I could absolutely see Mitch looking like the best option in practice/training camp and getting the nod to start the season. And all the Mitch backers pointing to that as proof that he's the better player. But when the lights come on, I suspect he freezes up and shits the bed again. Foles has the proverbial "ice in his veins" thing going on, he'll step in as soon as it's apparent Mitch isn't stepping up his game, and that will be the end of it. Week 4 seems about right, but I could see it as early as Week 2.

Regarding 2018 Mitch...he had 6 games over 100 QBR....but he also had 6 games under 80. He was the definition of inconsistency, half good half bad. And, QBR is heavily influenced by TD's and INT's, and with the defense literally having a historic season with turnovers and giving Mitch a short field gave Mitch a lot of red zone opportunities that he didn't have to earn by consistently moving the chains. Top that off with Nagy's 1st year and his dazzling red zone trick play success, and Mitch's TD numbers get an artificial bump in 2018 which came back down to earth in 2019 when the D didn't set him up nearly as well.

Mitch had his moments in 2018, I won't deny that. He gave me enough that I thought he was going to kick some serious ass in 2019, I was all in on him/Nagy. So it's not like I have some personal beef here. I just watched 2019 actually unfold and I'm willing to allow new facts to influence my thinking on things - and what I saw was simply disturbing. Like a baseball player with the yips, I've never seen an NFL QB shit the bed like that before. I really felt bad for the kid. Now, I just wanna move on.
We're completely on the same page on 10.

The one huge and meaningful thing that gets glossed over in these stats using averages that folks are throwing out is the context around those "good games" and "bad games". I've posted it before - the AVERAGE stats are lies - they do not describe who he is. The MEDIAN shows who he really is - and it is awful. That takes away a few of the stellar performances against B teams (and who cares about that? we want to beat good teams right?) and also a few of the clunkers that any young (heck any at all) QB will have. But the Median is the reliable metric.

In terms of bets... no it would be crazy to bet they trade him I agree. I think they have TRIED - which is the key point. I just don't think there is any market for him at this point. And to an objective eye that should mean something.

I agree with Plank 10 is a practice warrior and "says all the right things" - and I do think there is a good chance he'll convince them to give him one more shot at starting. I'll take bets on who is the QB in the 4th quarter of game 3 or 4, with the caveat that injury negates the bet. I pick Foles. $100 a person until I get 5 takers and then I may scale back. I do want to hold back from finalizing the exact game bet until I see the schedule. Because if the first few contests are bums that might buy a bumslayer more time.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:04 pm

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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:21 am

Richie wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:32 pm
southdakbearfan wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:24 pm


What you aren't factoring in is that we have a GM and Coach that will be shown the door if the season tanks and a roster to win right now.

If Mitch played about as well as he did in 2018 in 2019 I guarantee you this team has Chase Daniels or something very similar back again. He regressed along with the team.

Bringing Foles is a hedge against Mitch continuing to falter and not progress. The cost is what it is but part of the reason for the willingness to spend said money is a product of roster construction and the hot seat the coach and gm are in. The team is built to win now with some very expensive players that probably won't be on the team in 2021 or 2022.
Isn't Nagy/Pace's ass being on the line implied in any of our opinions? Isn't the 2020 Bears being in "win now" mode also implied? I mean, that's how I look at it.

Yeah, that cold hard truth is a huge part of what leads me to believe that Foles is A LOT more than an insurance policy.

At minimum, it's a direct competition. Nothing about what has transpired should lend itself to "Mitch is the starter and Foles is here just incase".
If Mitch played about as well as he did in 2018 in 2019 I guarantee you this team has Chase Daniels or something very similar back again. He regressed along with the team.
Of course. Perhaps I phrased that wrong.

Clearly, Mitch was more productive overall in 2018 - just looking at it in a vacuum. I was merely pointing out that a lot of it was a mirage which gave us false hope and convinced us Mitch was further along than he was. The organization clearly bought into it as well. I mean, I did at the time - despite PFF and all of these analytics putting the truth in my face. I staunchly denied it.

I mean, he was fantastic in 2 to 3 games against horrendous defenses (half of his TD's came in these games) and then collectively? The rest of the season is exactly what he was in 2019. His 2019 was basically his 2018. Just without those volatile spikes in performance and a poor run game along with a line drop off which helped to expose his shortcomings. In Trubisky's career. 95% of his games or so... it's been the exact same QB.



This is a QB competition and if anyone DOES have an upper leg? It's Foles. Not the other way around. That's what these moves involving Bridgewater and Foles lend itself to. This staff and front office is done fucking around. Mitch has to win the job. It is no his to lose. That's wishful thinking by those hanging tough in the Mitch Trubisky truther camp.
And in foles magical season where he lead the NFL in rating he threw almost a 1/4 of his touchdowns in one game? 7 of them against the hapless raiders.

QB's always make hay against terrible pass defenses, just like RB's make their hay against terrible run defenses and pass rushers make their hay against bad blockers.

Good QB's are bumslayers. And I am not saying he doesn't need to improve, just pointing out facts.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:44 pm

IE wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm
dplank wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:36 am
Let's not forget, Mitch is a practice warrior on top of being a bum slayer. He apparently looked great in practice most of the weeks where he laid an egg in the actual game. I agree with Yogi that he just puckers out there, freezes up a bit probably from being too amped with a healthy degree of insecurity that takes root after his first mistake. I also agree that he's got far better physical tools than Foles, and that all Foles really does better is throws a more accurate ball and processes the field better. It just so happens that those are the two areas Nagy needs to improve to run his offense, and I don't believe 4 years into his career that his "puckers" are going to ever end. Some guys just don't have it, whatever "it" is.

Anyhow, point of the post is...I could absolutely see Mitch looking like the best option in practice/training camp and getting the nod to start the season. And all the Mitch backers pointing to that as proof that he's the better player. But when the lights come on, I suspect he freezes up and shits the bed again. Foles has the proverbial "ice in his veins" thing going on, he'll step in as soon as it's apparent Mitch isn't stepping up his game, and that will be the end of it. Week 4 seems about right, but I could see it as early as Week 2.

Regarding 2018 Mitch...he had 6 games over 100 QBR....but he also had 6 games under 80. He was the definition of inconsistency, half good half bad. And, QBR is heavily influenced by TD's and INT's, and with the defense literally having a historic season with turnovers and giving Mitch a short field gave Mitch a lot of red zone opportunities that he didn't have to earn by consistently moving the chains. Top that off with Nagy's 1st year and his dazzling red zone trick play success, and Mitch's TD numbers get an artificial bump in 2018 which came back down to earth in 2019 when the D didn't set him up nearly as well.

Mitch had his moments in 2018, I won't deny that. He gave me enough that I thought he was going to kick some serious ass in 2019, I was all in on him/Nagy. So it's not like I have some personal beef here. I just watched 2019 actually unfold and I'm willing to allow new facts to influence my thinking on things - and what I saw was simply disturbing. Like a baseball player with the yips, I've never seen an NFL QB shit the bed like that before. I really felt bad for the kid. Now, I just wanna move on.
We're completely on the same page on 10.

The one huge and meaningful thing that gets glossed over in these stats using averages that folks are throwing out is the context around those "good games" and "bad games". I've posted it before - the AVERAGE stats are lies - they do not describe who he is. The MEDIAN shows who he really is - and it is awful. That takes away a few of the stellar performances against B teams (and who cares about that? we want to beat good teams right?) and also a few of the clunkers that any young (heck any at all) QB will have. But the Median is the reliable metric.

In terms of bets... no it would be crazy to bet they trade him I agree. I think they have TRIED - which is the key point. I just don't think there is any market for him at this point. And to an objective eye that should mean something.

I agree with Plank 10 is a practice warrior and "says all the right things" - and I do think there is a good chance he'll convince them to give him one more shot at starting. I'll take bets on who is the QB in the 4th quarter of game 3 or 4, with the caveat that injury negates the bet. I pick Foles. $100 a person until I get 5 takers and then I may scale back. I do want to hold back from finalizing the exact game bet until I see the schedule. Because if the first few contests are bums that might buy a bumslayer more time.
You bet $100 bucks that Foles will be the QB playing for the Chicago Bears in quarter 4 of game 3 this season (barring injury)? I'm in -- if winnings go to charity. Let's make this bet result in good for the needy.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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IE
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:44 am

Oh, no - I want your money. lol
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:39 pm

southdakbearfan wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:39 pm
I agree it's a competition. But I think it's 50 50 with Mitch maybe having the benefit of being the 1 right away.

As far as 2018 goes, I would disagree. There were peaks and valleys but Mitch's performance as a whole was very good. He had a 95+ rating and his total QBR was 3rd in the league which takes into account both running and situational play. Probably the most frustrating part to the end of that season wasn't even the doinks when I look back, it was Nagy being ultra conservative the first half of the eagles game and when he turned Mitch loose he balled out and basically won it before our kicker lost it.

Anyway, I think QB play will be better this year one way or the other, I just don't think Foles is as huge of upgrade as some think looking at his entire body of work.
QBR is a pretty sketchy source of data. Not saying it's PURE trash... but I've only ever seen it brought up on this board regularly (or on ESPN where I believe they invented/invested in it). Why do we see it here? Because Mitch was top 5 in it once.

And again... it's inflated by those 2-3 games Mitch played and torched terrible defenses. Way back during the season I removed those games and his numbers were comical. Then, I also did a removal of his 3 worst games. Still comical looking numbers.

His performance "as a whole" was below average to poor in 2018. If you were to grade each game or play individually and average out that grade. It would be a C - at best. PFF grades every game/play and I think it was worse than a C equivalent. His performance in a few select moments was very good. Yes. Not "on the whole".

And if you want to cling to a few throws Mitch made in a 16-15 field goal/defensive battle. Have at it. My recollection is not that we were conservative in the 1st half. Just that nothing worked. Regardless, I digress, as it really doesn't matter. There's a big enough of a body of work on Mitch outside of that game where we don't have to pick it apart.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:55 pm

southdakbearfan wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:21 am
Richie wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:32 pm


Isn't Nagy/Pace's ass being on the line implied in any of our opinions? Isn't the 2020 Bears being in "win now" mode also implied? I mean, that's how I look at it.

Yeah, that cold hard truth is a huge part of what leads me to believe that Foles is A LOT more than an insurance policy.

At minimum, it's a direct competition. Nothing about what has transpired should lend itself to "Mitch is the starter and Foles is here just incase".



Of course. Perhaps I phrased that wrong.

Clearly, Mitch was more productive overall in 2018 - just looking at it in a vacuum. I was merely pointing out that a lot of it was a mirage which gave us false hope and convinced us Mitch was further along than he was. The organization clearly bought into it as well. I mean, I did at the time - despite PFF and all of these analytics putting the truth in my face. I staunchly denied it.

I mean, he was fantastic in 2 to 3 games against horrendous defenses (half of his TD's came in these games) and then collectively? The rest of the season is exactly what he was in 2019. His 2019 was basically his 2018. Just without those volatile spikes in performance and a poor run game along with a line drop off which helped to expose his shortcomings. In Trubisky's career. 95% of his games or so... it's been the exact same QB.



This is a QB competition and if anyone DOES have an upper leg? It's Foles. Not the other way around. That's what these moves involving Bridgewater and Foles lend itself to. This staff and front office is done fucking around. Mitch has to win the job. It is no his to lose. That's wishful thinking by those hanging tough in the Mitch Trubisky truther camp.
And in foles magical season where he lead the NFL in rating he threw almost a 1/4 of his touchdowns in one game? 7 of them against the hapless raiders.

QB's always make hay against terrible pass defenses, just like RB's make their hay against terrible run defenses and pass rushers make their hay against bad blockers.

Good QB's are bumslayers. And I am not saying he doesn't need to improve, just pointing out facts.
And in foles magical season where he lead the NFL in rating he threw almost a 1/4 of his touchdowns in one game? 7 of them against the hapless raiders.
The difference? Take that game out and it is still a fantastic season of play. Take Mitch's best game out? It REALLY hurts.

Also, nowhere did I asset that Foles is great. Merely that he's a capable professional - capable of getting hot with a good team around him. That's a huge upgrade to the worst season long starter in the NFL last season.

QB's always make hay against terrible pass defenses, just like RB's make their hay against terrible run defenses and pass rushers make their hay against bad blockers.

A) Well, first off -- Mitch DOESN'T do that. He did it a VERY small handful of times and has been utterly brutal outside of that. That's my whole point. I would see the NYG game and the game vs Minny's backups last year for reference. The @GB, MIA ARI, NYJ, BUF and SF games in 2018 for more reference. The SF and @DET games in 17. Mitch doesn't slay bums. Maybe half of the time.

B) Top 10 QB's may not have great stat lines against every top D and maybe even their best games do come against bad D's. However, they do SOOOO much better against everything in between than Mitch has.

Good QB's are bumslayers.
Again...

A) Mitch isn't a bumslayer, though. He's bumslayed like 5-6 times in his career. Like an average of once or twice per year. lol. Mitch has had plenty of games looking unimpressive against bad defenses.

B) Good QB's do a lot more than slay bums. Come on. Do they slay bums? Sure, but they do it every time AND they have success vs the majority of the league. So far, Mitch's only trick is bumslaying at about a 50% rate.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:39 pm

Mitch is an enigma. He's a part time bum Slayer for sure. But some of his best games in 2018 were against some pretty good teams. The New England game in 2018 was great. His consistency is just all over the place. Even quarter by quarter he goes from good to bad and back to good all in one game.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:45 pm

I do think his confidence is shot. I think it got destroyed at that first GB game in 2018. He was so cocky at training camp and was shushing the crowd in GB before halftime. Then that SOB that was carted off the field in glorious fashion, fucking hobbled back after halftime and willed his team to victory. Like a boss. He went from brash at halftime to the meek guy we all know today at press conferences. So yeah, I blame it all on Rodgers that walking sack of turds.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:12 pm

Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:22 pm

Hey Az... I did like that NE game, and the Bears should have won. Mitch did play alright - not great. I do agree that was one of his better outings against top competition - there aren't many others I can remember. 50% completions and 2 INTs just can't be great. The D helped him and special teams really messed things up that day.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 210chi.htm

The most important thing that is missing from these discussions is his median performances. Take away the bum slaying and a couple of clunkers on the other side of the spectrum, and it shows who he is for the most part. It is not good.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:43 pm

Yeah, almost good enough just isn't cutting it. I still think he can be a top tier QB in a different system. I just don't think Nagy is on board with the 3 yards and a cloud of dust. He wants a gunslinger that takes chances. Shit, I'd live with a few INTs if it means shots are being taken down field.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:30 pm

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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:20 pm

Trubisky's left shoulder, his words, is at 100% and feels better/stronger than before he had hurt it.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:33 pm

G08 wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:20 pm
Trubisky's left shoulder, his words, is at 100% and feels better/stronger than before he had hurt it.
Better?




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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:56 am

G08 wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:20 pm
Trubisky's left shoulder, his words, is at 100% and feels better/stronger than before he had hurt it.
What is he supposed to say G08? Right after the Bears traded for Foles. "My shoulder is still fucked, I hope we don't have to play this year." He knows this is his last shot to stay in the league. Personally I think he loses his job in week 4. The Bears are going to give him the first quarter of the season, and if he doesn't show signs of absorption of the the entire playbook, they will switch to Foles. I will go back to what I have said several times. I don't think that Trubisky has the mental capacity to process an offense at the NFL level. He faked it in college with his athleticism and a Div I level playbook. I'm not saying he's stupid, he just can't do it. Remember, he couldn't beat out another QB on UNC, who doesn't even play in the league.
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Re: Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:09 am

I really do put a lot of Trubisky's mental problems on Nagy. He's really overcoached him IMO. He's in his face way too much, in his head constantly, has him thinking WAAAAAAY too much (which isn't a strength for Mitch). He needs to leave him the heck alone, take the training wheels off, and let it rip. Take more shots, more risks downfield. Don't throw it 10 yards over their head and claim victory because "at least you put it out of reach of the defenders so it wasn't picked". Good QB's take chances, typically downfield, cause you get PI's, big plays sometimes, stretch the D, and even if it's picked it's typically no worse than a punt anyways. Nagy coached scared last year IMO, terrified of Mitch turning the ball over.

And IMO Mitch has to know he's about to become a career backup if he flops again, so he needs to man the fuck up and tell Nagy to fuck off once in a while and not let him twist his mind up with his uber complex system. He's been in it long enough.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.

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