Bears Franchise Direction: Everything's Awful/Things Aren't So Bad/Etc.

[wab]

McMahon would be glorious in this offense. If he had the balls to audible out of plays that Ditka called, he wouldn’t hesitate to do that to Nagy.

He'd be glorious because he'd change the plays?

[The Marshall Plan]

McMahon would be glorious in this offense. If he had the balls to audible out of plays that Ditka called, he wouldn’t hesitate to do that to Nagy.

He'd be glorious because he'd change the plays?

Yep. Obviously not all of them or even most of them, but I can’t see McMahon toeing the line on some of the crap.

[BR0D1E86]

McMahon would be glorious in this offense. If he had the balls to audible out of plays that Ditka called, he wouldn’t hesitate to do that to Nagy.

He'd be glorious because he'd change the plays?

I reckon he'd change his read based on an incoming blitz every now and again. And he could probably progress to a second option. So yeah, he'd probably be pretty decent at least.

[wab]

He'd be glorious because he'd change the plays?

I reckon he'd change his read based on an incoming blitz every now and again. And he could probably progress to a second option. So yeah, he'd probably be pretty decent at least.

Yeah, the current guy has never done that ever.

[BR0D1E86]

I reckon he'd change his read based on an incoming blitz every now and again. And he could probably progress to a second option. So yeah, he'd probably be pretty decent at least.

Yeah, the current guy has never done that ever.

Rarely. Particularly coming off his first read, which is hardly going out on a limb as a criticism for him.

[G08]

I'm a broken record but this is for context.

QBs 22 games into their career in the same offensive system

Mitch Trubisky: 65.5%, 4613 yards, 32 TDs, 15 INTs, 6.9 YPA, 91.8 rating

Aaron Rodgers: 64.2%, 5740 yards, 39 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.9 YPA, 98.1 rating

Drew Brees (Saints only): 64.3%, 5812 yards, 31 TDs, 21 INTs, 7.2 YPA, 87.9 rating [6th and 7th years in the league]

Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers only, 17 games): 66.1%, 4314 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.0 YPA, 93.7 rating [4th, 5th and 6th years in the league]

Dak Prescott: 66.2%, 5093 yards, 37 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.7 YPA, 102.8 rating

Jared Goff: 64.5%, 5934 yards, 42 TDs, 12 INTs, 8.54 YPA, 104.3 rating

Deshaun Watson: 66.2%, 5630 yards, 45 TDs, 17 INTs, 8.35 YPA, 103.8 rating

Patrick Mahomes: 65.8%, 7212 yards, 61 TDs, 13 INTs, 8.90 YPA, 112.4 rating


Is the "pissed off" sect of our fan base behaving as such ONLY because of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson?

[The Marshall Plan]

Is the "pissed off" sect of our fan base behaving as such ONLY because of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson?

I don't think its fair to compare Mitch to Mahomes in the same way that you can't get pissed at Houston and Portland for missing out on Michael Jordan. Nobody had any idea that Jordan was going to be on that level. Same with Mahomes.

Watson is a fair argument. Someone could argue that Pace shouldn't have traded up, held him ground, and then picked either Mitch or Watson at #3.

What has me scared or pissed off is the regression which I attribute to:

1) Nagy turning up the wattage on the offense.
2) Switching Whitehair and Daniels.
3) Excessive loyalty to Kyle Long. Nagy will waive Sowell 100 times, but dangit let's be loyal to Kyle Long for some reason.
4) Lack of commitment to the run game.
5) Poor play calling.

I think a lot of the bad throws is a function of the line breaking down and Mitch not wanting to throw picks so he just puts in a place where the defender can't get it instead of putting it somewhere where the receiver can get it.

My main concern about Mitch is he damaged goods? Is his brain now permanently scrambled eggs whether its his fault or not? I want to be wrong big time, but after 2 HCs, 2 OCs(?), and this season only being year 3 is his brain cooked?

My heart loves him. What we saw in the Eagles game last year on that drive and at times last year was exactly what we needed. We just need that back.

[Richie]

No, the response is more towards the idea that Mitch has somehow shown more "flashes" than all of our first-round QB's of the past. That he's so much different than any of those names.

Dating back to 1952:

Jim McMahon
Jim Harbaugh
Cade McNown
Rick Mirer
Rex Grossman

I've seen better QB play and more promise from Mitch Trubisky than every QB on that list, perhaps save for McMahon (was too young to really have an opinion on him). You're comparing him to literal garbage with some of those names.

- Mitchell Trubisky HAS been literal garbage.


- McMahon's numbers and overall success drown Trubisky's. McMahon parts of 7 seasons and 61 starts McMahon posted across the board above average to good numbers. Average passer rating in the 80's was in the low-to-mid 70's. McMahon's was 80 in Chicago. Average Y/A was in the high 6's and McMahon was 7.1. Average TD% was in the low 4's and the INT% in the mid 4's. McMahon's was a positive 4.4 to 3.7.

Trubisky's career numbers all come in clearly below the average mark for 17, 18 and 19 collectively.

- Jim Harbaugh is a pretty good comp for Trubisky while in a Bears uniform (his Colts career was head/shoulders better than what Mitch has done). As a Bear, Harbaugh posted league average numbers.

He came in shortly after McMahon. League averages had only slightly improved. Rating in the mid 70's, CMP% at 57-58%, TD/INT% ratio had creeped up to even. Harbaugh had a 74 rating, 58% CMP and threw 50-56 TD/INT's. 2.8/3.2. His TD% was a point below the average and his INT% was a point better than average.

- The Bears did not draft Rick Mirer. If you're including Mirer than you have to include Cutler. With whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of.

- Cade McNown was worse than Trubsiky. Yes.

- I have already done my breakdown on Rex to you.

- So, for now... Trubisky fits squarely into this group.

[G08]

Dating back to 1952:

Jim McMahon
Jim Harbaugh
Cade McNown
Rick Mirer
Rex Grossman

I've seen better QB play and more promise from Mitch Trubisky than every QB on that list, perhaps save for McMahon (was too young to really have an opinion on him). You're comparing him to literal garbage with some of those names.

- Mitchell Trubisky HAS been literal garbage.


- McMahon's numbers and overall success drown Trubisky's. McMahon parts of 7 seasons and 61 starts McMahon posted across the board above average to good numbers. Average passer rating in the 80's was in the low-to-mid 70's. McMahon's was 80 in Chicago. Average Y/A was in the high 6's and McMahon was 7.1. Average TD% was in the low 4's and the INT% in the mid 4's. McMahon's was a positive 4.4 to 3.7.

Trubisky's career numbers all come in clearly below the average mark for 17, 18 and 19 collectively.

- Jim Harbaugh is a pretty good comp for Trubisky while in a Bears uniform (his Colts career was head/shoulders better than what Mitch has done). As a Bear, Harbaugh posted league average numbers.

He came in shortly after McMahon. League averages had only slightly improved. Rating in the mid 70's, CMP% at 57-58%, TD/INT% ratio had creeped up to even. Harbaugh had a 74 rating, 58% CMP and threw 50-56 TD/INT's. 2.8/3.2. His TD% was a point below the average and his INT% was a point better than average.

- The Bears did not draft Rick Mirer. If you're including Mirer than you have to include Cutler. With whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of.

- Cade McNown was worse than Trubsiky. Yes.

- I have already done my breakdown on Rex to you.

- So, for now... Trubisky fits squarely into this group.

We used draft picks for Mirer, but sure I'll engage the Cutler angle "whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of". Here are is first two years in the same system in Chicago:

59.3%, 5593 yards, 36 TDs, 23 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 86.0 rating


Again. You and I live in different worlds when it comes to this. No idea how you process these things when the production clearly tells you that you are wrong.

[Richie]

- Mitchell Trubisky HAS been literal garbage.


- McMahon's numbers and overall success drown Trubisky's. McMahon parts of 7 seasons and 61 starts McMahon posted across the board above average to good numbers. Average passer rating in the 80's was in the low-to-mid 70's. McMahon's was 80 in Chicago. Average Y/A was in the high 6's and McMahon was 7.1. Average TD% was in the low 4's and the INT% in the mid 4's. McMahon's was a positive 4.4 to 3.7.

Trubisky's career numbers all come in clearly below the average mark for 17, 18 and 19 collectively.

- Jim Harbaugh is a pretty good comp for Trubisky while in a Bears uniform (his Colts career was head/shoulders better than what Mitch has done). As a Bear, Harbaugh posted league average numbers.

He came in shortly after McMahon. League averages had only slightly improved. Rating in the mid 70's, CMP% at 57-58%, TD/INT% ratio had creeped up to even. Harbaugh had a 74 rating, 58% CMP and threw 50-56 TD/INT's. 2.8/3.2. His TD% was a point below the average and his INT% was a point better than average.

- The Bears did not draft Rick Mirer. If you're including Mirer than you have to include Cutler. With whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of.

- Cade McNown was worse than Trubsiky. Yes.

- I have already done my breakdown on Rex to you.

- So, for now... Trubisky fits squarely into this group.

We used draft picks for Mirer, but sure I'll engage the Cutler angle "whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of". Here are is first two years in the same system in Chicago:

59.3%, 5593 yards, 36 TDs, 23 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 86.0 rating


Again. You and I live in different worlds when it comes to this. No idea how you process these things when the production clearly tells you that you are wrong.

Well, first of all, I was talking about Cutler's entire body of work vs Mitch's. You just now moved the goal posts to "first two seasons in a system". You just created that as our measuring point out of thin air. Cutler also missed nearly half of his 2nd season under Martz with a broken thumb.

Second.

Dude... Look at those Cutler numbers compared to the league averages. Those are above average numbers and better than Trubisky's last collective two seasons. Which are below average.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

FWIW: Cutler's TD/INT% over those years? 4.8/3.0

10/11 average was 4.3/3.0

Mitch's over the last two? 4.7/2.2

NFL average in 18/19 is 4.7/2.2

Again, both with a league average INT%. Cutler with the better TD%.

You are comparing numbers across eras and you cannot do that. Joe Montana had a 92.3 career rating and 63% career CMP%. Was Mitch better than Joe Montana last season?

You are being willfully disingenuous.

It's just sad to see Bears fans doing this again. I watched us all apologize for Rex, Kyle, Cutler, etc.

They all had excuses too. Remember? Do you think Mitch is the only guy ever to operate outside of a perfect setting? Remember Jay's O-line and his WR corp made up of kick returners his first few years here? How quickly we forget when we have a chance to create reasons for THIS QB struggling out of THIN AIR. It MUST be different this time!

I remember when I used to be like this with Bears QB's. Just cling onto any thin tree branch of plausible deniability that he wasn't another lost cause.

No QB in his 3rd year starting this side of the century; has ever been arguably the worst starter in football and then amounted to anything much more than a name you laugh at a decade later in a bar.

No idea how you process these things when the production clearly tells you that you are wrong.

The production CLEARLY shows that I am correct. How much more clearly can I lay it out?

Do you have an argument besides throwing out random numbers with zero context and shouting "you're wrong and live in a different world". Saying that these numbers represent something that they LITERALLY REPRESENT THE OPPOSITE OF?

Good lord. What are you going to do next? Tell us Mitch is better than Terry Bradshaw because Bradshaw had a career 70 QB rating?

Mitchell Trubisky has 4 legitimately good NFL games. 3 of them came last year and accounted for half of his touchdowns. Without them? His career TD/INT ratio drops to nearly even. His passer rating down to around 80.

That's how fragile these surface numbers are that you're in love with. They come from 4ish out of 34 games. And the impact they have? It's shrinking as his body of work grows larger and his numbers dwindle into a more accurate reflection of him. Which is a dreadful QB.

It's weird that you think the statistics in your signature are good. BTW

[UOK]

Maybe we should just all stare into the inky void, never finding joy in anything whatsoever, drafting mid-to-late round and signing low-money FA quarterbacks until finally the numbers prove out one, just ONE, hall-of-fame gunslinger who throws 0 career interceptions, never signs anything but team-friendly deals, nor costs the team virtually anything to acquire but time, repetition, and patience.

But not TOO much patience. Like, four games at most. If they don't put together a 3:1 good-to-bad game ratio, you cut them immediately, moving on to the next cheap, low-risk, safe-investment quarterback.

By drafting a QB in the first round or spending big money over a span of years, you're potentially saddling yourself with somebody awful...like MITCHELL TRUBISKY, JAY CUTLER, OR ANYBODY

SPEND NOTHING
RISK NOTHING
???
WIN SUPERBOWL WITH LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK

--------

My point is that Trubisky may not be great, or even good, but Pace had the balls to move up and take him. Whether or not that proves to be a miscalculation, it's that kind of aggression and conviction that makes a good general manager, IMHO. Angelo routinely ached to trade down or out of the 1st round, just to avoid the risk and embarrassment and criticism associated with missing on a prestigious pick. That cowardice resulted in the bulk of his picks being out of the NFL or on other teams within a few years of their selection. That said, he had the balls (or the pressure) to move some elite picks to acquire a QB who was at the time a very promising NFL-savvy passer. It failed, but at least he had the guts to try.

If Mitch sucks, so be it. He sucks. If turns it around and can be a whatever middle of the road QB, good for him. But I trust Pace to make more good than bad decisions.

Some fans also live and die by proving others wrong and proving themselves right. If a fan's conviction is to have this trial by stats/eye-tests/etc in order to prove a QB is either complete shit or an unpolished diamond, I would say that is a misguided passion. I get that the argument and presentation of evidence can be "fun," or at least time-consuming between games, but it's clear that people are entrenched.

I consider this thread to be a bit of an embarrassment, but I also understand why it needs to exist.

[G08]

We used draft picks for Mirer, but sure I'll engage the Cutler angle "whom Trubisky would clearly fall short of". Here are is first two years in the same system in Chicago:

59.3%, 5593 yards, 36 TDs, 23 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 86.0 rating


Again. You and I live in different worlds when it comes to this. No idea how you process these things when the production clearly tells you that you are wrong.

Well, first of all, I was talking about Cutler's entire body of work vs Mitch's. You just now moved the goal posts to "first two seasons in a system". You just created that as our measuring point out of thin air. Cutler also missed nearly half of his 2nd season under Martz with a broken thumb.

Second.

Dude... Look at those Cutler numbers compared to the league averages. Those are above average numbers and better than Trubisky's last collective two seasons. Which are below average.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

First of all, I never moved any goal posts if you have been reading what I have been posting. I'll put it in bold text for you:

I am looking solely at what Trubisky has done in Matt Nagy's offense and comparing him to other QBs and their first two years in the same system, regardless of their tenure in the NFL.

You are comparing numbers across eras and you cannot do that. Joe Montana had a 92.3 career rating and 63% career CMP%. Was Mitch better than Joe Montana last season?

You are being willfully disingenuous.

I am? You're citing a QB that played 150 games in the 80's whereas I'm referencing QBs who have played in this millennia

If you want Cutler's career numbers as a Bear, here you go:

61.8%, 23,443 yards, 154 TDs, 109 INTs, 7.2 YPA, 85.2 rating

I don't know how to explain to you that citing Trubisky's production in THIS OFFENSE is not "random numbers with zero context". What I'm showing you are specific numbers with crystal clear context. This is what the QB has done in the offense our team will be running for as long as Matt Nagy is here. I'm not sure what part of that is beyond your comprehension.

I'll play your game, though. According to you and your "league averages" perspective:

Tom Brady was barely above average his first four years in the league (Super Bowl MVP)

Drew Brees was well below average -- a bust? -- his first three years in the league (Super Bowl MVP)

Brett Favre was just above average his first four years in the league (MVP)

Matt Ryan was just above average his first four years in the league (MVP)

etc

It's just sad to see Bears fans doing this again. I watched us all apologize for Rex, Kyle, Cutler, etc.

They all had excuses too. Remember? Do you think Mitch is the only guy ever to operate outside of a perfect setting? Remember Jay's O-line and his WR corp made up of kick returners his first few years here? How quickly we forget when we have a chance to create reasons for THIS QB struggling out of THIN AIR. It MUST be different this time!

I remember when I used to be like this with Bears QB's. Just cling onto any thin tree branch of plausible deniability that he wasn't another lost cause.

No QB in his 3rd year starting this side of the century; has ever been arguably the worst starter in football and then amounted to anything much more than a name you laugh at a decade later in a bar.

No idea how you process these things when the production clearly tells you that you are wrong.

Do you have an argument besides throwing out random numbers with zero context and shouting "you're wrong and live in a different world". Saying that these numbers represent something that they LITERALLY REPRESENT THE OPPOSITE OF?

Good lord. What are you going to do next? Tell us Mitch is better than Terry Bradshaw because Bradshaw had a career 70 QB rating?

Mitchell Trubisky has 4 legitimately good NFL games. 3 of them came last year and accounted for half of his touchdowns. Without them? His career TD/INT ratio drops to nearly even. His passer rating down to around 80.

That's how fragile these surface numbers are that you're in love with. They come from 4ish out of 34 games. And the impact they have? It's shrinking as his body of work grows larger and his numbers dwindle into a more accurate reflection of him. Which is a dreadful QB.

Trubisky has a 91.8 rating in this offense, whereas the league average was 92.5 those two years. So, in your brain, are you saying our young QB is just a touch below average? Like 17th of 32 QBs in the league? Or are you sticking with your guns and saying he's a "dreadful QB".

Talking out of both sides of your mouth, Richie.


I'm comparing apples to apples. I think that's what is either frustrating you or what is inhibiting you from following along.

[G08]

Some fans also live and die by proving others wrong and proving themselves right. If a fan's conviction is to have this trial by stats/eye-tests/etc in order to prove a QB is either complete shit or an unpolished diamond, I would say that is a misguided passion. I get that the argument and presentation of evidence can be "fun," or at least time-consuming between games, but it's clear that people are entrenched.

I can't speak for others, but I can express that I am speaking from the heart as a Bears fan. What I post is what I think and I use what "evidence" and "data" I can to support my position. I don't get any personal satisfaction like YES, FUCK YOU HATERS WHO SAID I WAS WRONG ABOUT OUR QB! when Trubisky does well just as I don't get any sense of OMG HE PLAYED BALDY I'M SO EMBARRASSED HOW AM I GOING TO SHOW MY FACE ON THE BOARD. I do, however, feel happy for the kid when he does well.

I want the kid to do well. I have seen flashes. Professionals who have forgotten more about football than I have ever known have said there are flashes. I'm not naive enough to think a QB is who he is going to be at age 25 and in year 2 of a system. That's where my foundation is and why I feel as confidently as I do that his story is not yet written.

[wab]

Maybe we should just all stare into the inky void, never finding joy in anything whatsoever, drafting mid-to-late round and signing low-money FA quarterbacks until finally the numbers prove out one, just ONE, hall-of-fame gunslinger who throws 0 career interceptions, never signs anything but team-friendly deals, nor costs the team virtually anything to acquire but time, repetition, and patience.

But not TOO much patience. Like, four games at most. If they don't put together a 3:1 good-to-bad game ratio, you cut them immediately, moving on to the next cheap, low-risk, safe-investment quarterback.

By drafting a QB in the first round or spending big money over a span of years, you're potentially saddling yourself with somebody awful...like MITCHELL TRUBISKY, JAY CUTLER, OR ANYBODY

SPEND NOTHING
RISK NOTHING
???
WIN SUPERBOWL WITH LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK

Bears fans perpetually want some version of Jim Miller because they don't have to have any emotional investment in him. They know he won't get their hopes up because he really isn't good and won't let them down. If they never have expectations, they can never be disappointed.

They figure with a good defense and running game, there's a punchers chance at a super bowl.

But when a young exciting highly touted prospect comes in and doesn't produce immediately, it hurts their pride because they trusted him to be better than Jim Miller, and to do so immediately. When he doesn't meet those immediate expectations, they want to start over and basically be the Browns.

I don't remember fans being this upset at a QB when the team was bouncing between 7-9 and 9-7 for the better part of the decade with an occasional 11-5 or 10-6 sprinkled in.

[G08]

I don't remember fans being this upset at a QB when the team was bouncing between 7-9 and 9-7 for the better part of the decade with an occasional 11-5 or 10-6 sprinkled in.

Comical, isn't it?

[Otis Day]

For as long as I can remember, Bears fans have always been pissed about QBS.

Concannon - Douglas

Douglas - Huff

Huff - Avellini

Avellini - Phipps

Avellini - Phipps - Evans

McMahon - Fuller - Tzak - Harbaugh

Walsh - Mathews

Walsh - Mathews - Kramer - Miller

McNown - Miller

Miller - K Stewart

Orton - Grossman - Griese

Cutler - McCown

It has always been there, always will be until "that guy", the one that blows off the doors, takes command, makes few mistakes, puts up huge #s, comes along. The QB debate and the Bears go together like cheeseburgers and fries.

[UOK]

Maybe we should just all stare into the inky void, never finding joy in anything whatsoever, drafting mid-to-late round and signing low-money FA quarterbacks until finally the numbers prove out one, just ONE, hall-of-fame gunslinger who throws 0 career interceptions, never signs anything but team-friendly deals, nor costs the team virtually anything to acquire but time, repetition, and patience.

But not TOO much patience. Like, four games at most. If they don't put together a 3:1 good-to-bad game ratio, you cut them immediately, moving on to the next cheap, low-risk, safe-investment quarterback.

By drafting a QB in the first round or spending big money over a span of years, you're potentially saddling yourself with somebody awful...like MITCHELL TRUBISKY, JAY CUTLER, OR ANYBODY

SPEND NOTHING
RISK NOTHING
???
WIN SUPERBOWL WITH LEGENDARY QUARTERBACK

Bears fans perpetually want some version of Jim Miller because they don't have to have any emotional investment in him. They know he won't get their hopes up because he really isn't good and won't let them down. If they never have expectations, they can never be disappointed.

They figure with a good defense and running game, there's a punchers chance at a super bowl.

But when a young exciting highly touted prospect comes in and doesn't produce immediately, it hurts their pride because they trusted him to be better than Jim Miller, and to do so immediately. When he doesn't meet those immediate expectations, they want to start over and basically be the Browns.

I don't remember fans being this upset at a QB when the team was bouncing between 7-9 and 9-7 for the better part of the decade with an occasional 11-5 or 10-6 sprinkled in.

Indeed. We're also a very impatient bunch, and many of us feel like we're due/entitled/owed a franchise legend QB after so many years of mediocre-to-shit play at the position. It gets to the point where we move the goalposts from "on-the-field production" to "how he looks in press conferences and on the sideline" as a measuring stick for greatness. Analysis over stats, video breakdowns, film reviews, etc. is HELPFUL, but not really all that useful since the next Sunday Trubisky (or Cutler, etc) will look doubly as good or terrible and smash the arguments you spent so much time sculpting, or at least make you rethink how to attack the guy.

It's a lot easier to just say, "I hate his fucking face," since that's not likely to change. Since, ya know, it's the guys face, or voice, or posture, etc.

[Moriarty]

I'm a broken record but this is for context.

QBs 22 games into their career in the same offensive system

Mitch Trubisky: 65.5%, 4613 yards, 32 TDs, 15 INTs, 6.9 YPA, 91.8 rating

Aaron Rodgers: 64.2%, 5740 yards, 39 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.9 YPA, 98.1 rating

Drew Brees (Saints only): 64.3%, 5812 yards, 31 TDs, 21 INTs, 7.2 YPA, 87.9 rating [6th and 7th years in the league]

Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers only, 17 games): 66.1%, 4314 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.0 YPA, 93.7 rating [4th, 5th and 6th years in the league]

Dak Prescott: 66.2%, 5093 yards, 37 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.7 YPA, 102.8 rating

Jared Goff: 64.5%, 5934 yards, 42 TDs, 12 INTs, 8.54 YPA, 104.3 rating

Deshaun Watson: 66.2%, 5630 yards, 45 TDs, 17 INTs, 8.35 YPA, 103.8 rating

Patrick Mahomes: 65.8%, 7212 yards, 61 TDs, 13 INTs, 8.90 YPA, 112.4 rating


Is the "pissed off" sect of our fan base behaving as such ONLY because of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson?

Very first thing that jumps out at me from that is ypa

Mitch is the worst (including the Cutler one that comes later) and only one other comparison is even remotely close.
And that jibes with the eye test, too. His accuracy on longer throws has been terrible, and as much as the dinks and dunks are a part of modern football, if that's all you can do, you're in big trouble. He's getting really close to the point where you have to say "if he can't do that by now, it's never going to happen".

[IE]

Man, can you imagine what Brian Griese could do with this team? Or Jim Miller? Or Erik Kramer? hehe....

UOK - I agree on your pass for Pace. I do think if he was more experienced he would have picked Watson. But he didn't. He fell in love with the guy from central casting, and the story - and missed so much of what a star QB needs. He does need to get better at the top of the draft. I want to give him more opportunity, because I do really like a ton of his picks and his FA moves have been pretty good. The team is very talented. It will help him if the Bears consistently pick in the bottom third of the first round.

G - on that list of QBs and stats that you posted, what is missing are the intangibles, the swagger and the ever-present evidence of competence that was ALWAYS on the field for those other guys, in spite of them going through their learning curves that resulted in the stats you shared. Maybe Jimmy G aside, nobody ever looked at those guys and called them incompetent, inept or a deer in the headlights. Those guys played well against bad AND good teams. I believe you're kind of comparing their floors to Mitch's ceiling (which I believe we saw last year) and calling them equivalent. I believe those flashes you've seen is pretty much "bum - slaying". I'm personally not in need of watching him fall to the good teams on the rest of the schedule like his book of work predicts he will. But if it takes that for us all to get on the same page, I can deal with it.

[UOK]

swagger and the ever-present evidence of competence that was ALWAYS on the field for those other guys

I'd gladly take a boring guy who goes through proper progressions, quickly reads a defense and makes a good decision. I'd love to take the Chicago Bears quarterback equivalent of Kyle Hendricks.

[G08]

I'm a broken record but this is for context.

QBs 22 games into their career in the same offensive system

Mitch Trubisky: 65.5%, 4613 yards, 32 TDs, 15 INTs, 6.9 YPA, 91.8 rating

Aaron Rodgers: 64.2%, 5740 yards, 39 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.9 YPA, 98.1 rating

Drew Brees (Saints only): 64.3%, 5812 yards, 31 TDs, 21 INTs, 7.2 YPA, 87.9 rating [6th and 7th years in the league]

Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers only, 17 games): 66.1%, 4314 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.0 YPA, 93.7 rating [4th, 5th and 6th years in the league]

Dak Prescott: 66.2%, 5093 yards, 37 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.7 YPA, 102.8 rating

Jared Goff: 64.5%, 5934 yards, 42 TDs, 12 INTs, 8.54 YPA, 104.3 rating

Deshaun Watson: 66.2%, 5630 yards, 45 TDs, 17 INTs, 8.35 YPA, 103.8 rating

Patrick Mahomes: 65.8%, 7212 yards, 61 TDs, 13 INTs, 8.90 YPA, 112.4 rating


Is the "pissed off" sect of our fan base behaving as such ONLY because of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson?

Very first thing that jumps out at me from that is ypa

Mitch is the worst (including the Cutler one that comes later) and only one other comparison is even remotely close.
And that jibes with the eye test, too. His accuracy on longer throws has been terrible, and as much as the dinks and dunks are a part of modern football, if that's all you can do, you're in big trouble. He's getting really close to the point where you have to say "if he can't do that by now, it's never going to happen".

That's kind of the misnomer with YPA... everyone assumes that it only deals with longer throws. It doesn't... YAC plays off short throws play a huge role, you don't see that with many of our offensive weapons this season. Last year you had Cohen take a screen to the house, etc.

[IE]

swagger and the ever-present evidence of competence that was ALWAYS on the field for those other guys

I'd gladly take a boring guy who goes through proper progressions, quickly reads a defense and makes a good decision. I'd love to take the Chicago Bears quarterback equivalent of Kyle Hendricks.

Sorry - didn't mean to emphasize the word swagger (what is it with focus on single words, versus larger meaning?).

Focus on the words "competence that was always on the field for those other guys".

[G08]

G - on that list of QBs and stats that you posted, what is missing are the intangibles, the swagger and the ever-present evidence of competence that was ALWAYS on the field for those other guys, in spite of them going through their learning curves that resulted in the stats you shared. Maybe Jimmy G aside, nobody ever looked at those guys and called them incompetent, inept or a deer in the headlights.

Drew Brees was benched in San Diego. Eli Manning almost had the same happen to him (not saying he's good, but on the other hand he has 2 Super Bowl Rings). My point is examples are there, but of course it is much easier to say he's going to bust because that is what happens with the vast majority of QBs who play in the NFL.

[Moriarty]

Very first thing that jumps out at me from that is ypa

Mitch is the worst (including the Cutler one that comes later) and only one other comparison is even remotely close.
And that jibes with the eye test, too. His accuracy on longer throws has been terrible, and as much as the dinks and dunks are a part of modern football, if that's all you can do, you're in big trouble. He's getting really close to the point where you have to say "if he can't do that by now, it's never going to happen".

That's kind of the misnomer with YPA... everyone assumes that it only deals with longer throws. It doesn't... YAC plays off short throws play a huge role, you don't see that with many of our offensive weapons this season. Last year you had Cohen take a screen to the house, etc.

Yes, ypa isn't all through the air. However, when you have 1) poor completion percentage on downfield throws (data in the QB thread) AND 2) the eye test of seeing awful overthrows week after week AND 3) very low ypa, only the most biased observer could possibly conclude anything besides "he's been really bad throwing downfield"

[G08]

That's kind of the misnomer with YPA... everyone assumes that it only deals with longer throws. It doesn't... YAC plays off short throws play a huge role, you don't see that with many of our offensive weapons this season. Last year you had Cohen take a screen to the house, etc.

Yes, ypa isn't all through the air. However, when you have 1) poor completion percentage on downfield throws (data in the QB thread) AND 2) the eye test of seeing awful overthrows week after week AND 3) very low ypa, only the most biased observer could possibly conclude anything besides "he's been really bad throwing downfield"

No argument here... aside from last week Trubisky has been God-awful with accuracy down the field. Good thing is that can be improved upon, question is will it sustain.

[Mikefive]

so are the Bears cursed?

are we meant to be forever teased with the "potential" of various players only to never see it realized?

are we doomed to watching the Bears be the Packers bitches forever? and why, after so many years of facing Goon Bay have the Bears seemingly learned nothing from them?

I guess when the Bears remodeled Halas Hall they forget to exorcise the demons within, allowing the current Bears to resembles failures from past years rather than anything productive or useful

and why can't an historically significant organization get out of their own way when trying to accomplish even simple organizational tasks?

year after year we see the same things repeated over and over ... the names change, the numbers change, but at the end of the day it is the same warmed over horseshit from a decade ago

I've sat in the cold of Soldier Field more times than I care to remember watching the Bears find ways to fail ... and yet, here I am ... battle scarred and world weary but still a Bears fan

someone else mentioned ho po'd they are about all of this, but in reality, no one should be surprised ... so why be mad at something you cannot fix? something out of your control?

I'm not mad ... just sadly disappointed ... and not sure if it is disappointment in the team or in myself for following them

[mmmc_35]

How many qbs in the last 30 years figure it out after year 4? Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, chris Chandler? This isn't really complicated. Mitch should not be counted on, but not necessarily moved on from.

[G08]

How many qbs in the last 30 years figure it out after year 4? Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, chris Chandler? This isn't really complicated. Mitch should not be counted on, but not necessarily moved on from.

I think experience in the same scheme matters. This offense is notorious for a QB becoming comfortable in year 3 and mastering it in year 5.

In terms of experience as a QB, David Carr said he didn't become comfortable doing full-field reads until his 3rd or 4th year in the league. QBs learn and develop at different rates, while some of course simply can not do the job.

I think these final 7 games will be telling. I hope the kid can stay healthy and show us what he's got. I listened to Tony Dungy on multiple outlets this week talk about how he likes Trubisky as a prospect and emphasized how inexperienced he is as a QB (dating back to college, etc). He's of the opinion you give the kid time to develop, but he's also glass-is-half-full 110% of the time.

[mmmc_35]

Mitch is in a wierd spot. If the offense wasn't talented he would get more slack. At the same time the line has regressed and Nagy is inconsistent. I always revert to what I see. The panic and lack of vision. I wouldn't bet on him.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

There's a lot of negativity on this thread. I'll tell you what fellas. I'm sticking by my 13-3 prediction. I still think they can pull it out. It'll take some work. But darnit, they're good enough!