Bears Franchise Direction: Everything's Awful/Things Aren't So Bad/Etc.

[Otis Day]

When I get a chance I will see what the play break down is, run v pass. That may have to wait until my lunch.

[Moriarty]

When I get a chance I will see what the play break down is, run v pass. That may have to wait until my lunch.

Are you sure you want to do any examination of the Bear offense right after eating?

[Otis Day]

don't eat much for lunch and I believe my guy can take it.

[Moriarty]

Yeah, but guys like Mirer and Bortles were bad from the start. Mitch has always needed development, but if you are saying he didn't show signs of being a successful QB prior to this year, you are just flat out wrong - and willfully so.

I know that the "title" means little, but you give a player that made the pro bowl a season ago a chance to turn it around.

I remember Brett Favre and Steve Young being laughinstocks and run out of town. And no, I'm not saying Mitch is either of those guys. I'm saying that it has happened. Brett Favre was BAD in Atlanta and BAD his first three years in GB. Steve Young was BAD in his first two years in Tampa Bay and was BAD in limited action his first 5 years in SF.

They showed signs of being good though. That's what kept them around.

Brett Favre threw 4 passes in Atlanta, he really want anything there. And he had an interception problem, but he also showed growth and improvement. The opposite of our quarterback, who is showing massive regression. The 93 season was his outlier, where he made plays but he was a turnover machine. Other than that, he wasn't ever bad.

And Steve Young was bad that second year in tampa, but he wasn't anything his first five years in San Francisco. He never threw more than about 40 passes in a season again until he was 30.

Blake Bortles' second season was better than anything Mitch has done. 4400 yards with 35/18. His third season he threw for 3900 yards with 23/16. And in those years 2-4 he was about a six and a half to seven years per attempt guy. Trubisky was that last year, this year he's five and a half.

It's not impossible for Trubisky to go from the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and make no mistake, he is that, and becoming good. But to think it's more than a remote possibility is silly. And to plan your team based on that remote possibility would be insane.

Amen.

"Showed signs" is a metric that's tailor-made to be misleading. Virtually all highly drafted flops produce at least a few games of good stats and "show signs" (especially to someone who really wants to see it).
It's just that, in retrospect, it's easy to forget or to pretend that no one was claiming to see any promise there.

Rex Grossman "showed signs"
Cade McNown "showed signs"
Mike Glennon "showed signs" (I'm talking early on, not in Chicago)
Blake Bortles "showed signs"

[Otis Day]

Interesting stats. First drives combined, 24 rush attempts and 25 pass attempts. I counted sacks as pass attempts for this conversation. Interesting note as well in these drives, Cohen up the middle was called 4x. Montgomery had a couple of up the middle runs as well. Patterson also had a carry. Looking at the drive charts, seems pretty similar throughout the games.

[wab]

Rex Grossman "showed signs"
Cade McNown "showed signs"
Mike Glennon "showed signs" (I'm talking early on, not in Chicago)
Blake Bortles "showed signs"

Rex Grossman never had a top 5 QBR
Cade McNown didn't go 11-3 in his second year
Mike Glennon didn't make a pro-bowl
Blake Bortles actually did show signs, so I'll give you this one

The point of all of this, is that people are acting like Mitch has always been bad. He hasn't.

[G08]

Rex Grossman "showed signs"
Cade McNown "showed signs"
Mike Glennon "showed signs" (I'm talking early on, not in Chicago)
Blake Bortles "showed signs"

Rex Grossman never had a top 5 QBR
Cade McNown didn't go 11-3 in his second year
Mike Glennon didn't make a pro-bowl
Blake Bortles actually did show signs, so I'll give you this one

The point of all of this, is that people are acting like Mitch has always been bad. He hasn't.

Exactly.

Also...

Cade fucking McNown showed signs?

[Otis Day]

Yea, I never saw shit from Cade, except him being a worthless ass clown.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

This thread feels like a bunch of drunk guys arguing at a bar, that eventually descends into complete anarchy. Someone throws a chair, and the whole bar ends up in a fight.

Where is Dalton when you need him...

[Knuckles]

This thread feels like a bunch of drunk guys arguing at a bar, that eventually descends into complete anarchy. Someone throws a chair, and the whole bar ends up in a fight.

Where is Dalton when you need him...

Hey! I resemble that description

[Boris13c]

I voted Nagy. He is the one that is putting the inadequate QB in the positions he is. At the same time the QB cannot handle any situation it seems. That seems like a bad marriage.

Nagy's play calling is suspect. 5 rushes in the first half, 3 by the midget, 1 by a WR and 1 by the back that is praised to high heaven. Doesn't make sense. 2 of the midget's carries were up the middle. That play has gotten so old.

The fact Nagy can't really explain why he doesn't run the ball is a joke. I get the OL has not played well, 5 rushes and 21 passes in the first half, no damn way in that close of a game.

there are so many flaws there is plenty of blame to go around

here is a nice explanation of the problems during the Charger game ... bad plays, bad execution equals the shit we have been seeing ... too many gimmicks, not enough common sense ... and good Mitch/bad Mitch

[The Marshall Plan]

I voted Nagy. He is the one that is putting the inadequate QB in the positions he is. At the same time the QB cannot handle any situation it seems. That seems like a bad marriage.

Nagy's play calling is suspect. 5 rushes in the first half, 3 by the midget, 1 by a WR and 1 by the back that is praised to high heaven. Doesn't make sense. 2 of the midget's carries were up the middle. That play has gotten so old.

The fact Nagy can't really explain why he doesn't run the ball is a joke. I get the OL has not played well, 5 rushes and 21 passes in the first half, no damn way in that close of a game.

Nagy can't explain why he doesn't run the ball because if he did run the ball and he was successful it would implode the entire concept of his offense which is PASSING IS MOAR BETTER JUST DO IT MOAR. For the same reason why the CIO at my previous job just had to have Cognos. Nevermind that all he did with it was make a million dollar pie chart dashboard that everybody wiped their ass with and changed the data download source from the ERP to Cognos. Dammit he had to have Cognos.

[IE]

The fact Nagy can't really explain why he doesn't run the ball is a joke. I get the OL has not played well, 5 rushes and 21 passes in the first half, no damn way in that close of a game.

Nagy can't explain why he doesn't run the ball because if he did run the ball and he was successful it would implode the entire concept of his offense which is PASSING IS MOAR BETTER JUST DO IT MOAR. For the same reason why the CIO at my previous job just had to have Cognos. Nevermind that all he did with it was make a million dollar pie chart dashboard that everybody wiped their ass with and changed the data download source from the ERP to Cognos. Dammit he had to have Cognos.

That shit's worthy of an entire discussion (and I don't mean the passing). If the senior folks want the high level functionless dashboard, we're going to have the dashboard dammit.

[crueltyabc]

To me, Mariota is the comp, and that makes it funny to me that people (not as much on this board) are saying the Bears should bring him in. Both QBs are good enough to lead a good team to a playoff loss, or maybe a 9-7 season that just misses the playoffs. To me this is more dangerous than a true bust because they play well enough to hang around but not actually well enough to do anything meaningful. Mitch has 2019 and 2020 to prove me wrong but I suspect I'll be trotting out this argument again next summer when we're debating whether or not to pick up the 5th year option

[The Marshall Plan]

Mitch has 2019 and 2020 to prove me wrong but I suspect I'll be trotting out this argument again next summer when we're debating whether or not to pick up the 5th year option

If they keep the triumvirate of Nagy, Helfrich and Mitch together after this season, this is me during that debate....

[Boris13c]

so are the Bears cursed?

are we meant to be forever teased with the "potential" of various players only to never see it realized?

are we doomed to watching the Bears be the Packers bitches forever? and why, after so many years of facing Goon Bay have the Bears seemingly learned nothing from them?

I guess when the Bears remodeled Halas Hall they forget to exorcise the demons within, allowing the current Bears to resembles failures from past years rather than anything productive or useful

and why can't an historically significant organization get out of their own way when trying to accomplish even simple organizational tasks?

year after year we see the same things repeated over and over ... the names change, the numbers change, but at the end of the day it is the same warmed over horseshit from a decade ago

I've sat in the cold of Soldier Field more times than I care to remember watching the Bears find ways to fail ... and yet, here I am ... battle scarred and world weary but still a Bears fan

someone else mentioned ho po'd they are about all of this, but in reality, no one should be surprised ... so why be mad at something you cannot fix? something out of your control?

I'm not mad ... just sadly disappointed ... and not sure if it is disappointment in the team or in myself for following them

[G08]

@Boris13c I saw the Cubs win the World Series man so anything is possible .

It was even sweeter because I stuck with them even closer when they sucked. It's the ride that makes the championship(s) worth it

This franchise is annoying as fuck, but I can at least say I think they are trying.

[Richie]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

[IE]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

Agreed. I don't think we should even try to pretend that the jury is still out on Trubisky. Here's how I think about it: If Nagy pushed Pace to get rid of Howard with the intention of getting a slightly better RB (which he did), then do we really think Nagy is going to preside over this year's quarterbacking and tell Pace he wants to stay pat with this hand he's been dealt? With a ceiling of "average"? I think not. Nagy wants a new quarterback. We'll continue to see why over the next 7 weeks if he really needs to put more on tape for Pace.

I'm on the Jalen Hurts bandwagon. I hope he doesn't do too well for the rest of the season so the Bears have the ammunition to get him in the 2nd. Keep Trubisky and transform the offense with a running game guru. Give Nagy one more year to figure out that a strong running game is an absolute requirement to being a top team. This team with Jalen Hurts right now would be 8-1 (NOLA).

[BreadNCircuses]

This thread feels like a bunch of drunk guys arguing at a bar, that eventually descends into complete anarchy. Someone throws a chair, and the whole bar ends up in a fight.

Where is Dalton when you need him...

[BreadNCircuses]

[G08]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

Multi-tasking at the moment but are you genuinely comparing Mitch to Rex?

[The Marshall Plan]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

Multi-tasking at the moment but are you genuinely comparing Mitch to Rex?

Define "good".

2017
Mitch had 5 games with a rating of 90 or higher.

2018
Mitch had 6 regular season games last year with a rating higher than 90. His only playoff game was just shy of 90.

2019
Mitch has had 2 games with a rating of 90 or higher.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... elog/2019/

[ramentaschen]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

The blowout of the Bills last year was also a really good game for Trubisky.

[Richie]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

The blowout of the Bills last year was also a really good game for Trubisky.

Not in the least. Trubisky was 12 for 20 135 yards 1 TD 1 INT and a 76 rating. He had only 1 carry for 6 yards.

A whole lot of concern about the offense that day. The D scored twice in the 2nd quarter and gave us two other short fields to score from 23 and 37 yards. Thanks to Nate Peterman the offense didn't have a TD drive that started in their own territory all day long.

Despite losing 41-9. The Bills doubled the Bears in first downs 22-11. They outgained the Bears 246-191. They outrushed and out passed the Bears. They out possessed the Bears 34-26. It was an ugly offensive day with the D just being on fire.

[Richie]

How many games from Mitch's career were actually "good"? Not like "we can build off of that" or "he took a step"... etc... I am talking "franchise QB" performance.

I count four. 4 of 34.

Cincy his rookie year
TB 2018
DET 2018
GB 2018

Rex had that. Just saying.

Multi-tasking at the moment but are you genuinely comparing Mitch to Rex?

No, the response is more towards the idea that Mitch has somehow shown more "flashes" than all of our first-round QB's of the past. That he's so much different than any of those names.

Mitch has only had four "flash" games. Rex had that in 2006 alone. Hell, September/October was one big wildfire of "flash" sans the infamous Arizona game. Rex had more than four of those in 2006. He had 8 games with a rating of 98 or higher. 7 of those 100 or higher. In 2006 that was also a much bigger accomplishment. The average passer rating for a QB was 80.0 flat. Last year it was nearly 93.0. The average CMP% in 2006 was 59%. In 2018 it was nearly 65%. It was a very, very different time. Rex's "flashes" in 2006 were just as valid as Mitch's in 2018. If not more valid.

Rex's brand of "bad" was slightly worse than Trubisky's. Only because of his penchant for turnovers. Mitch's brand of "bad" is far more boring, though. Mitch is overwhelmed, can't see the field and is utterly horrified by what's going on around him. Rex was anything but scared of taking his shots. Even if it was often misguided.

The comp is closer than raw surface numbers would indicate, though. Seeing how much the game has changed in the QB's favor over the last 13-14 years (most of that really being the last 8ish years). Raw surface numbers aren't very reliable on their own and need context when comparing across eras. Speaking of context... Mitch's entire stat line in 2018 was also built off of three games which account for half of his TD's. That is one hell of an anomaly.

[Richie]

Multi-tasking at the moment but are you genuinely comparing Mitch to Rex?

Define "good".

2017
Mitch had 5 games with a rating of 90 or higher.

2018
Mitch had 6 regular season games last year with a rating higher than 90. His only playoff game was just shy of 90.

2019
Mitch has had 2 games with a rating of 90 or higher.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... elog/2019/

The average QB rating for passers in 2018 was 93. So, 90 certainly is not the threshold. QB rating on its own is also far from the one statistic I would choose to declare a performance "good" or "franchise QB" level. For instance, the second most hopeless I've ever seen Mitch look was against New Orleans this year (First was vs Philly in 2017, FWIW). Yet, his raw numbers aren't bad. 86 rating 250 yards 2 TD's 0 INT's. That stat line isn't very hard on the eyes. Yet we all know what went down that afternoon prior to the 4th quarter when he drowned his numbers in gravy.

It's such an arbitrary thing. So, I think you have to look at the statistical body of work in its entirety and also the context. For instance, I have a hard time putting the Washington game this year into that group with the other four games. This is after you take into account the misfires and horrendous INT that it was shrouded in. Coupled with two of his touchdowns being a game of pitch/catch with Gabriel.

At the time, I thought it was a "something to build off of" type of game. Not a "we found something" performance. This was also a good month before I bailed on him and was still very much behind him. So, it's not like I'm revising history from my newfound position.

[G08]

Multi-tasking at the moment but are you genuinely comparing Mitch to Rex?

No, the response is more towards the idea that Mitch has somehow shown more "flashes" than all of our first-round QB's of the past. That he's so much different than any of those names.

Dating back to 1952:

Jim McMahon
Jim Harbaugh
Cade McNown
Rick Mirer
Rex Grossman

I've seen better QB play and more promise from Mitch Trubisky than every QB on that list, perhaps save for McMahon (was too young to really have an opinion on him). You're comparing him to literal garbage with some of those names.

[Otis Day]

McMahon was a winner more than anything. He never had great stats and he never had to, he had Payton. He could make big plays and the team rallied behind him. His WRs (McKinnon, Gault to name a few( left a little to be desired and his TEs were avg at best

[The Marshall Plan]

McMahon was a winner more than anything. He never had great stats and he never had to, he had Payton. He could make big plays and the team rallied behind him. His WRs (McKinnon, Gault to name a few( left a little to be desired and his TEs were avg at best

McMahon would be glorious in this offense. If he had the balls to audible out of plays that Ditka called, he wouldn’t hesitate to do that to Nagy.