Update: Broncos hire Shurmur for OC position

[G08]

^ Sounds like those of us who want Pat Shurmur here will want Kevin O'Connell to stick around in WASH.

[AZ_Bearfan]

[AZ_Bearfan]

[Mikefive]

The craziest part of them being 8-8 is that as meh as this team was this season, they were just as close to being 12-4 as they were to being 8-8.

I know your record is your record, but the fact that they were in all but a couple of games until the very end has to account for something.

No they weren't. If you're going strictly by score, then maybe. But they had 11 games where they failed to score a TD in the first half. Most of their points came in garbage time against prevent defenses, when they were down by 2+ scores. By your logic, if teams actually decided to play defense in the 4th quarter, they just as easily could have been 6-10.

I'm jumping to BWN's defense here.

How many times have we heard the phrase, "the game wasn't as close as the score indicated". I'll point to the Dallas game as an example. We kicked the crap out of them. But they rallied during garbage time and scored meaningless points in the 4th when they really had little chance to win and we were happy to let them complete passes in the middle of the field and run clock.

And we saw a number of examples this year where we didn't do crap early in the game until the other team went prevent when the game was pretty much over and we made it closer as a result. That's not a close game, even if we managed to get within one score late.

To just look at the final score and judge whether it was a competitive game or not based on just that is 3rd grader logic.

[Mikefive]

If true, I'm stunned. But perhaps it's an indication that Nagy recognizes the need for more experience in running the offense and perhaps a willingness to offload play calling.

Case Keenum #2? Affordable with NFL starting experience. Sure. Why not.

[G08]

I'll believe it when it happens. It's funny how some of these Twitter talking heads speak in vague terms. They don't know dick.

First it was Kafka.
Then it was no one.
Now it might be Shurmur?

[G08]

If true, I'm stunned. But perhaps it's an indication that Nagy recognizes the need for more experience in running the offense and perhaps a willingness to offload play calling.

Case Keenum #2? Affordable with NFL starting experience. Sure. Why not.

I'd me more than fine with Shurmur + Keenum as QB2.

[wab]

No they weren't. If you're going strictly by score, then maybe. But they had 11 games where they failed to score a TD in the first half. Most of their points came in garbage time against prevent defenses, when they were down by 2+ scores. By your logic, if teams actually decided to play defense in the 4th quarter, they just as easily could have been 6-10.

I'm jumping to BWN's defense here.

How many times have we heard the phrase, "the game wasn't as close as the score indicated". I'll point to the Dallas game as an example. We kicked the crap out of them. But they rallied during garbage time and scored meaningless points in the 4th when they really had little chance to win and we were happy to let them complete passes in the middle of the field and run clock.

And we saw a number of examples this year where we didn't do crap early in the game until the other team went prevent when the game was pretty much over and we made it closer as a result. That's not a close game, even if we managed to get within one score late.

To just look at the final score and judge whether it was a competitive game or not based on just that is 3rd grader logic.

Loss vs GB - Bears were in the RZ with 2min to play when Mitch threw a pick. Bears lose by one score.

Loss vs OAK - Bears were driving and in Oakland territory with 1:22 left to play when Chase threw a pick. Bears lose by one score.

Loss vs NO - Bears where in it until halftime, bad game overall with Mitch coming off an injury. Bears score two TD's in 2 minutes. I guess you could call those "garbage time" but it came down to an onside kick. Bears lose by 11.

Loss vs LAC - Bears drive to the LA 21 with 4 seconds left. Eddie misses 2 FGs including the game winner. Bears lose by 1.

Loss vs PHI - Bears are down 19-14 with almost 9 minutes left to play in the 4th. The offense never touches the ball again, Eagles kick a FG with 30 seconds left. Bears lose by 8.

Loss vs LAR - Bears down 10-7 going into the 4th. Eddie has missed two FGs at that point, Rams put it away with 3 minutes left. Bears lose by 10.

Loss vs GB - Bad game for 3 quarters. Bears score 10 in the 4th and still manage to come one yard away from a potentially sending to OT. Bears lose by 8.

Loss vs KC - Bears get slaughtered, moving on.

So no... it wasn't like the Bears scored garbage time TD's making these losses look closer than they actually were. The first 7 losses, the Bears were in a position to win in the 4thQ and in some cases, the deciding factor came down to only a few plays...two critical picks by Trubisky/Daniels and a handful of missed FG's by Pineiro.

Prior to the Chiefs game, the average margin of defeat was 6.8 points. Even 3rd grade logic includes simple math.

I think we can agree that the Bears didn't play well this season. They were still in every game except 2-3.

[wab]

And to say the games were out of hand by the 4th Q is largely BS.

Loss vs GB: GB was up 7-3 at the half. Bears scored 0 in the second half. Packers scored 3 in the 4th.
Lost 10-3

Loss vs OAK: OAK was up 17-0 at the half. Bears scored 21 in the 3rd and none in the 4th. Raiders scored 7 in the 4th.
Lost 24-21.

Loss vs NO: NO was 12-10 at the half. I’ll give you this one. NO scored 14 in the 3rd and 10 in the 4th.
Lost 36-25.

Loss vs LAC: Bears were up 9-7 at the half. Bears scored 7 in the 3rd and none in the 4th. Chargers scored 3 in the 3rd and 7 in the 4th.
Lost 17-16.

Loss vs PHI: PHI was up 12-0 at the half. Bears scored 7 in the 3rd and 7 in the 4th. Eagles scored 7 in the 3rd and 3 in the 4th.
Lost 22-14

Loss vs LAR: LAR was up 10-0 at the half. Bears scored 7 in the 3rd and none in the 4th. Rams scored none in the 3rd and 7 in the 4th.
Lost 17-7

Loss vs GB: GB was up 7-3 at the half. I’ll give you this one too. Bears scored none in the 3rd and 10 in the 4th. Packers scored 14 in the 3rd and none in the 4th.
Lost 21-13

With the exception of three games, the game literally came down to the 4th Q. Are you trying to tell me that the rest of teams were so confident in their narrow margin at half time or in the 3rd Q that they just quit trying? Stop acting like these games weren’t competitive even if the Bears looked like shit for two out of the 4 quarters.

[The Cooler King]

No they weren't. If you're going strictly by score, then maybe. But they had 11 games where they failed to score a TD in the first half. Most of their points came in garbage time against prevent defenses, when they were down by 2+ scores. By your logic, if teams actually decided to play defense in the 4th quarter, they just as easily could have been 6-10.

I'm jumping to BWN's defense here.

How many times have we heard the phrase, "the game wasn't as close as the score indicated". I'll point to the Dallas game as an example. We kicked the crap out of them. But they rallied during garbage time and scored meaningless points in the 4th when they really had little chance to win and we were happy to let them complete passes in the middle of the field and run clock.

And we saw a number of examples this year where we didn't do crap early in the game until the other team went prevent when the game was pretty much over and we made it closer as a result. That's not a close game, even if we managed to get within one score late.

To just look at the final score and judge whether it was a competitive game or not based on just that is 3rd grader logic.

538 Just did a really good article about this;
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no ... lly-close/

We have much better tools than the final score to describe what happened in an NFL game. Win probability can tell us whether games that seemed close after the fact were actually coin flips in the closing minutes. So I found the games in the 2019 NFL season that ESPN’s win-probability model gave a 60-40 (or narrower) split at any point with five or fewer minutes left in regulation.

Sixty-three of the NFL’s 256 games fell within this threshold, and some teams played a lot more of them than others.
.....
ESPN’s Brian Burke6 once calculated that about 52.5 percent of NFL results are based on luck — but given that the better team will also get lucky half the time, the stronger team should win about 76 percent of games. Thus, 76 percent is the best success rate any mathematical model could hope for in predicting NFL results over the long run, according to Burke. We identified 63 of 256 regular-season games that effectively came down to a coin flip. That share? 24.6 percent — almost identical to the share of NFL games Burke found are typically determined by chance.

Bolded the above as it was I thought one of the more interesting conclusions in the article.

Per their methodology, the Bears had 5 close games and went 3-2. 11 games would be considered close if you just went off final score (within 8 points). They went 5-6 in those games. Without know which games went into their methodology, the former definitely seems more accurate as far as close-competitive games this year. So the games that were "close on final score, but not really close", they were therefor 2-4.

[dave99]

Somewhat snarky take on the the OC job:


https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... -few-names

Any love for Mornhinweg?
Found these factoids on the Wikipedia page:

During his career as an offensive coordinator, Mornhinweg's offenses have finished 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, and 12th in total offense, and regularly highly ranked in big plays.

Mornhinweg has earned a reputation as top quarterback coach by coaching five different Pro Bowl quarterbacks, Hall of Fame quarterbacks Steve Young and Brett Favre, and quarterback Joe Flacco.

[Moriarty]

I'm jumping to BWN's defense here.

How many times have we heard the phrase, "the game wasn't as close as the score indicated". I'll point to the Dallas game as an example. We kicked the crap out of them. But they rallied during garbage time and scored meaningless points in the 4th when they really had little chance to win and we were happy to let them complete passes in the middle of the field and run clock.

And we saw a number of examples this year where we didn't do crap early in the game until the other team went prevent when the game was pretty much over and we made it closer as a result. That's not a close game, even if we managed to get within one score late.

To just look at the final score and judge whether it was a competitive game or not based on just that is 3rd grader logic.

538 Just did a really good article about this;
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no ... lly-close/

We have much better tools than the final score to describe what happened in an NFL game. Win probability can tell us whether games that seemed close after the fact were actually coin flips in the closing minutes. So I found the games in the 2019 NFL season that ESPN’s win-probability model gave a 60-40 (or narrower) split at any point with five or fewer minutes left in regulation.

Sixty-three of the NFL’s 256 games fell within this threshold, and some teams played a lot more of them than others.
.....
ESPN’s Brian Burke6 once calculated that about 52.5 percent of NFL results are based on luck — but given that the better team will also get lucky half the time, the stronger team should win about 76 percent of games. Thus, 76 percent is the best success rate any mathematical model could hope for in predicting NFL results over the long run, according to Burke. We identified 63 of 256 regular-season games that effectively came down to a coin flip. That share? 24.6 percent — almost identical to the share of NFL games Burke found are typically determined by chance.

Bolded the above as it was I thought one of the more interesting conclusions in the article.

Per their methodology, the Bears had 5 close games and went 3-2. 11 games would be considered close if you just went off final score (within 8 points). They went 5-6 in those games. Without know which games went into their methodology, the former definitely seems more accurate as far as close-competitive games this year. So the games that were "close on final score, but not really close", they were therefor 2-4.

Good stuff

[dplank]

agreed great post!

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

If Shurmur gets hired, then two things have happened. 1) Nagy has realized that he may be in over his head, or lacks critical experience, with the offense, 2) Nagy has agreed to give up a chunk of control of the offense, and POSSIBLY play calling duties.

If he has been able to reach these conclusions, and is willing to fall on his sword. I will give him more credit than I have in the humility department.

[wab]

I don't know. I have a different take on the Shurmur rumors.

What if Nagy isn't some megalomaniac that refuses to let anyone call plays or touch his offense? I mean, he comes from the Reid tree, and Reid has let his OC's call plays. What if Nagy had full intention of handing the reigns over to Helfrich but realized somewhere along the way that Helfrich was in over his head as a NFL offensive coordinator?

So here's Nagy, between a rock and a hard place, trying to run his offense that has a influence from a college OC that has been being groomed as a playcaller, but doesn't know what he's doing (and if it IS true that Helfrich was largely responsible for the running game this season, he clearly didn't know what he was doing).

If the rumors about Shurmur prove to be true, then it tells me that Nagy isn't the stubborn egomaniac that people are making him out to be. It might just mean that he's been hamstrung by a bad hire (his fault, sure...but it happens), and is trying to bring in a better option.

[UOK]

If Shurmur gets hired, then two things have happened. 1) Nagy has realized that he may be in over his head, or lacks critical experience, with the offense, 2) Nagy has agreed to give up a chunk of control of the offense, and POSSIBLY play calling duties.

If he has been able to reach these conclusions, and is willing to fall on his sword. I will give him more credit than I have in the humility department.

Eh, I don't think anything's as concrete as all that. Shurmur would be Nagy's hire, so I'm sure it would all fall into the hierarchy of the coaching staff. Nagy's always going to call the plays and make the final decisions on offense, so whoever his OC would be is likely to be part of his brain trust, not a Plan B or Fail Safe. Sculpting game plans, optimizing the roster, working the Xs and Os, etc.

If people think Nagy's going to just hand off all his responsibilities and watch the game for a few hours prior to doing Club Dub and BOOMs, they're mistaken. He's a play caller. It's what he does.

I don't know. I have a different take on the Shurmur rumors.

What if Nagy isn't some megalomaniac that refuses to let anyone call plays or touch his offense? I mean, he comes from the Reid tree, and Reid has let his OC's call plays. What if Nagy had full intention of handing the reigns over to Helfrich but realized somewhere along the way that Helfrich was in over his head as a NFL offensive coordinator?

So here's Nagy, between a rock and a hard place, trying to run his offense that has a influence from a college OC that has been being groomed as a playcaller, but doesn't know what he's doing (and if it IS true that Helfrich was largely responsible for the running game this season, he clearly didn't know what he was doing).

If the rumors about Shurmur prove to be true, then it tells me that Nagy isn't the stubborn egomaniac that people are making him out to be. It might just mean that he's been hamstrung by a bad hire (his fault, sure...but it happens), and is trying to bring in a better option.

I don't think Nagy's a megalomaniac or arrogant to any extent above the mean. Just my two cents. But the guy was hired to run the offense. I'd understand Nagy handing over playcalling duties later on in his NFL career, but not in year three.

[dplank]

Nagy is a young, first time head coach without all that much real coaching experience. A lot of his time with Andy Reid in Philly he was a glorified man servant. He had a great 1st year and a not very good 2nd year, and I agree he missed on some hires and is just going to have to learn on the job.

That said, I really, really like Matt Nagy and I'm rooting for him to turn it around next year. I like his attitude, I like the team culture he has worked so hard at getting in place, I like that he doesn't treat the fans/media like adversaries or idiots. I like that he's aggressive. There's a lot of room for growth with Nagy, as should be expected with a guy with his experience.

I really think Shurmur would help him, and help the Bears. Nagy wants to throw all the time, Shurmur will bring balance and temper some of Nagy's aggressiveness with more practicality. Nagy would be wise to let Shurmur call the plays so he can focus on the overall team and not just give carte blanche to Pagano on the defensive side of the ball or Tabor on ST's. You can't do everything Matt, let people help you and be a leader, which you are really great at IMO.

[wab]

I don't think Nagy's a megalomaniac or arrogant to any extent above the mean. Just my two cents. But the guy was hired to run the offense. I'd understand Nagy handing over playcalling duties later on in his NFL career, but not in year three.

Fair - but I'm starting to think that Helfrich may have been part of the problem and a big reason why everything looked out of sync.

[Drone7]

Remove a goat from the finger-pointing village. Blame it for everyone's transgressions. He needs to die! Kill !!

Order restored.

Ready to roll!

[The Marshall Plan]

I don't know. I have a different take on the Shurmur rumors.

What if Nagy isn't some megalomaniac that refuses to let anyone call plays or touch his offense? I mean, he comes from the Reid tree, and Reid has let his OC's call plays. What if Nagy had full intention of handing the reigns over to Helfrich but realized somewhere along the way that Helfrich was in over his head as a NFL offensive coordinator?

So here's Nagy, between a rock and a hard place, trying to run his offense that has a influence from a college OC that has been being groomed as a playcaller, but doesn't know what he's doing (and if it IS true that Helfrich was largely responsible for the running game this season, he clearly didn't know what he was doing).

If the rumors about Shurmur prove to be true, then it tells me that Nagy isn't the stubborn egomaniac that people are making him out to be. It might just mean that he's been hamstrung by a bad hire (his fault, sure...but it happens), and is trying to bring in a better option.

OR....

What if Nagy is being told who to hire? Because now if things fail again, it's Pace's ass too.

I would like it very much if Shurmur is Nagy's organic choice. It really would be a sign of maturity on his part. After the clusterfucking of play calls this past season I think Nagy has shown his strength as a motivational figure and academic instead of a doer. Let Nagy march up and down the sidelines giving pep talks with catch phrases from various self help books and let the OC do the work. No shame in that.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I don't know. I have a different take on the Shurmur rumors.

What if Nagy isn't some megalomaniac that refuses to let anyone call plays or touch his offense? I mean, he comes from the Reid tree, and Reid has let his OC's call plays. What if Nagy had full intention of handing the reigns over to Helfrich but realized somewhere along the way that Helfrich was in over his head as a NFL offensive coordinator?

So here's Nagy, between a rock and a hard place, trying to run his offense that has a influence from a college OC that has been being groomed as a playcaller, but doesn't know what he's doing (and if it IS true that Helfrich was largely responsible for the running game this season, he clearly didn't know what he was doing).

If the rumors about Shurmur prove to be true, then it tells me that Nagy isn't the stubborn egomaniac that people are making him out to be. It might just mean that he's been hamstrung by a bad hire (his fault, sure...but it happens), and is trying to bring in a better option.

OR....

What if Nagy is being told who to hire? Because now if things fail again, it's Pace's ass too.

I would like it very much if Shurmur is Nagy's organic choice. It really would be a sign of maturity on his part. After the clusterfucking of play calls this past season I think Nagy has shown his strength as a motivational figure and academic instead of a doer. Let Nagy march up and down the sidelines giving pep talks with catch phrases from various self help books and let the OC do the work. No shame in that.

That's funny, and a distinct possibility.

[The Cooler King]

If he gives up the play calling duties it does make me a little concerned about his ultimate ceiling as a coach. He may struggle to find good OC/play callers as any with success will get poached, or they'll look to go work under Def coaches where they have more autonomy. I'd much prefer if he showed the competency to call his own plays. Or he'll have to give up some control over the offensive scheme and allow talented O minds meld and mix their schemes with the Reid scheme.

Jason Garret is one of the only Off HC that totally gave up play calling, and they did have some great Os but never found consistent regular season success or playoff success.

[Otis Day]

I believe no gets hired or it is Ragone as defacto OC, QB coach.

My 2 cents so it is likely not to happen.

[The Marshall Plan]

I believe no gets hired or it is Ragone as defacto OC, QB coach.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... tor-search

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/ ... ildress/5/

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I believe no gets hired or it is Ragone as defacto OC, QB coach.

My 2 cents so it is likely not to happen.

If no one gets hired as an OC, this offense is going to be a disaster next year. Nagy needs an experienced voice in his ear.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

You'd have thought that if Shurmur were Nagy's preference and the Bears Shurmer's then it would be a done deal by now. It makes me think that Nagy's got his eye on someone currently with one of the teams currently in the playoffs...

[The Cooler King]

You'd have thought that if Shurmur were Nagy's preference and the Bears Shurmer's then it would be a done deal by now. It makes me think that Nagy's got his eye on someone currently with one of the teams currently in the playoffs...

Could also be Shurmur waiting out the coaching market. Only CLE is left, which won't directly affect him, but as CLE decides. And WAS, CAR, DAL, etc fill out staffs, there may be other OC roles yet to open (notably KC).

[G08]

Heard on the radio that when Shurmur was TE coach in Minnesota (Norv Turner was OC), the butted heads a LOT. It got to the point where Turner resigned mid-season.

Reading the tea leaves it seems like Shurmur isn't the type to want to play second fiddle to anyone when it comes to calling plays. He's getting paid HC money the next 3 seasons, curious to see if he'd rather "relax" or take the demotion.

[southdakbearfan]

I really, really doubt Nagy is going to give up playcalling. I just don't see it unless Pace tells him he has too.

If Pace tells him he has to then Pace himself is admitting failure as Nagy was brought in as the offensive genius.

Reid has rarely ever given up playcalling duties over his career and I just don't see Nagy doing it year three, especially when it might be his behind on the hot seat.