Hoog wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:34 am
DP, agree with you on needing to run the ball more and how important it is to this team. Just look at last year compared to this year and maybe we can see why we lost 3 more games:
2018- 468 attempts, 1938 yards, Cohen 99 carries
2019- 395 attempts, 1458 yards, Cohen 64 carries, Patterson only 17 carries
Total Loss: 73 less carries, 480 less yards
2018- 503 attempts, 344 receptions, 3747 yards, 68.4% catch rate
2019- 566 attempts, 371 receptions, 3573 yards, 65.5% catch rate
Total Loss: 27 more attempts with only 174 more yards and 2.9% lower catch rate
We attempted 73 less running plays for a loss of 480 yards but increased our pass plays by 27 plays and only got 174 more yards. This is a net loss of 306 yards of offense.
In looking at where it was lost, you can see the attempts by Cohen and Patterson were down from 2018 (from just Cohen himself). They also lowered the attempts to get Cohen the ball by 22 times. Another telling stat for me was the excuse for getting rid of Howard had a lot to do with him not catching the ball well but they only threw 5 more times to Montgomery this year. This offense needs to run the ball more, get the ball into the hands of Patterson, Cohen, and Montgomery more and less in the hands of Mitch for next season.
There's a lot wrong here.
First, you're conflating correlation and causation.
Of course we ran the ball more... we were 12-4 and led in every game we played. In 2 of those 4 losses we led until the very end of the game. So, despite it being a game we lost. It was still a running game-script for our offense.
When you trail a bunch of games in the 4th quarter or just by multiple scores, in general. You have to throw. How many games had the Bears in a running game-script in the 2nd half and ultimately the 4th quarter? Denver, Washington, Minnesota, Detroit, NYG, Dallas...? So, five? Five games where we were in a "run the ball" position?
You also aren't taking into consideration that Mitch ran the ball 20 more times for 228 more yards. Many of his runs were out of called passing plays where he scrambled. Most were, in fact.
Howard and Montgomery (our lead ball carriers) averaged approximately the same YPC as each other in 2018 and 2019 at 3.7.
Our RB's as a whole averaged 3.83 YPC.
No one denies that the offense was worse. That being said, if you're going to start diagnosing problems. You have to use the correct interpretation and have your ducks in a row. That's all. Context is key.