Talking/Arguing/Vomiting about the Offensive Line

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G08
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dplank wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 am I'd pass also, I think that some of the best (maybe even the #1) TE's are still going to be on the board when we draft at #43 and #50. I like drafting one, something as I noted a few posts ago we've done sparingly over the last 20+ years.

I'd spend our cash upgrading our OL with blue chip pro's (i.e. Conklin, Sherff, Williams - someone like that). Go big Ryan, you are likely fired if we miss the playoffs next year.
Yeah I am with you here actually, sounds like a couple underclassmen declared for the draft so we might have a shot at a quality TE with pick #43. The only worry I have is TEs typically don't produce immediately so we'd have to have a specific plan in place for the kid.

Based on his 2019 tape, I just don't know how you can go into 2020 with Charles Leno as your starting LT.
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G08 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:01 am
dplank wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 am I'd pass also, I think that some of the best (maybe even the #1) TE's are still going to be on the board when we draft at #43 and #50. I like drafting one, something as I noted a few posts ago we've done sparingly over the last 20+ years.

I'd spend our cash upgrading our OL with blue chip pro's (i.e. Conklin, Sherff, Williams - someone like that). Go big Ryan, you are likely fired if we miss the playoffs next year.
Yeah I am with you here actually, sounds like a couple underclassmen declared for the draft so we might have a shot at a quality TE with pick #43. The only worry I have is TEs typically don't produce immediately so we'd have to have a specific plan in place for the kid.

Based on his 2019 tape, I just don't know how you can go into 2020 with Charles Leno as your starting LT.
While I don’t think we should use a 2nd rounder on a TE, our cap cash needs to go to the o-line.

For the o-line, we need to sign a name and then also draft somebody. Between Leno, Massie and RG we’re fucked. It’s almost like you have to move Leno and Massie inside. Have Whitehair at Center, Daniels at LG and then draft and sign 2 tackles.
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There really isn't a LT out there in FA and the only possible "good to very good" RT on the market is Jack Conklin from Tennessee and that's if they don't tag him. I've seen projections of 6 years $90M for him too so he won't come cheap. I think we will need to hit the draft for OL but I would sign Graham Glasgow from Detroit to man the RG position. I thought he did pretty darn good for them but they don't want to spend to keep him. He won't break the bank but he will get a three year deal probably.
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The difficult with bringing in a new tackle is that the Bears have a ton of money wrapped up in Leno and Massie. So unless they are going to move one of those two over to guard, the best bet is to target a starting guard in R2 and then a developmental OT later in the draft.
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Plus, those Eagles lines from 98-2010 under Castillo had some massive dudes. Tra Thomas, Shawn Andrews, Hank Fraley, Jamaal Jackson, and Jon Runyon were giants. Then Todd Herremans A little later... who was the tallest offensive guard in the NFL at the time.

I’ll be interested to see what he does with these 6’3 305 guys.
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dplank wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 am I'd pass also, I think that some of the best (maybe even the #1) TE's are still going to be on the board when we draft at #43 and #50. I like drafting one, something as I noted a few posts ago we've done sparingly over the last 20+ years.

I'd spend our cash upgrading our OL with blue chip pro's (i.e. Conklin, Sherff, Williams - someone like that). Go big Ryan, you are likely fired if we miss the playoffs next year.
We drafted Greg Olson. He was a huge swing and a miss. Glad we traded that guy.
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So we’re gonna move on from Massie and pay 90 million to Conklin?

Conklin has given up more sacks then Massie the last 3 years and he has almost doubled his penalties....12 penalties to 7 I believe
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cblaz11 wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:26 pm So we’re gonna move on from Massie and pay 90 million to Conklin?

Conklin has given up more sacks then Massie the last 3 years and he has almost doubled his penalties....12 penalties to 7 I believe
It’s baffling.
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wab wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:07 pm The difficult with bringing in a new tackle is that the Bears have a ton of money wrapped up in Leno and Massie. So unless they are going to move one of those two over to guard, the best bet is to target a starting guard in R2 and then a developmental OT later in the draft.
My thoughts exactly.
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wab wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:19 pm
cblaz11 wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:26 pm So we’re gonna move on from Massie and pay 90 million to Conklin?

Conklin has given up more sacks then Massie the last 3 years and he has almost doubled his penalties....12 penalties to 7 I believe
It’s baffling.
Running the ball matters. It's why Tennessee is still playing and we aren't. ;)
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DP, agree with you on needing to run the ball more and how important it is to this team. Just look at last year compared to this year and maybe we can see why we lost 3 more games:

Rushing
2018- 468 attempts, 1938 yards, Cohen 99 carries
2019- 395 attempts, 1458 yards, Cohen 64 carries, Patterson only 17 carries
Total Loss: 73 less carries, 480 less yards

Passing
2018- 503 attempts, 344 receptions, 3747 yards, 68.4% catch rate
2019- 566 attempts, 371 receptions, 3573 yards, 65.5% catch rate
Total Loss: 27 more attempts with only 174 more yards and 2.9% lower catch rate

Overall
We attempted 73 less running plays for a loss of 480 yards but increased our pass plays by 27 plays and only got 174 more yards. This is a net loss of 306 yards of offense.

In looking at where it was lost, you can see the attempts by Cohen and Patterson were down from 2018 (from just Cohen himself). They also lowered the attempts to get Cohen the ball by 22 times. Another telling stat for me was the excuse for getting rid of Howard had a lot to do with him not catching the ball well but they only threw 5 more times to Montgomery this year. This offense needs to run the ball more, get the ball into the hands of Patterson, Cohen, and Montgomery more and less in the hands of Mitch for next season.
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It's worse than that Hoog. You've mixed up the passing yards in your calculations.

Passing
2018- 503 attempts, 344 receptions, 3747 yards, 68.4% catch rate
2019- 566 attempts, 371 receptions, 3573 yards, 65.5% catch rate
Total Loss: 63 more attempts (27 more receptions) for 174 fewer yards and 2.9% lower catch rate.

Actually, I'm not sure where you got your figures from. According to footballdb.com, they should be:

Passing
2018: 512 attempts, 344 receptions, 3747 yards, 67.2% catch rate
2019: 580 attempts, 371 receptions, 3573 yards, 64.0% catch rate
Total Loss: 68 more attempts for 174 fewer yards and 3.2% lower catch rate.

Including yards lost to sacks, which nfl.com includes in their figures:
2018: 3564 yards
2019: 3291 yards
Total Loss: 273 fewer yards

Here's the biggest statistic though:

2018
Rushing yards per carry: 4.14
Passing yards per attempt: 7.3
First downs rushing: 108 (23.1%)
First downs passing: 177 (34.6%)

2019
Rushing yards per carry: 3.69
Passing yards per attempt: 6.2
First downs rushing: 85 (21.5%)
First downs passing: 178 (30.7%)

Difference
Rushing yards per carry: -0.45
Passing yards per attempt: -0.9
First downs rushing: -23 (-2.4%)
First downs passing: +1 (-3.9%)

Half a yard less per rush and a yard less per pass adds up to a lot fewer drive sustaining first downs.
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Hoog wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:34 am DP, agree with you on needing to run the ball more and how important it is to this team. Just look at last year compared to this year and maybe we can see why we lost 3 more games:

Rushing
2018- 468 attempts, 1938 yards, Cohen 99 carries
2019- 395 attempts, 1458 yards, Cohen 64 carries, Patterson only 17 carries
Total Loss: 73 less carries, 480 less yards

Passing
2018- 503 attempts, 344 receptions, 3747 yards, 68.4% catch rate
2019- 566 attempts, 371 receptions, 3573 yards, 65.5% catch rate
Total Loss: 27 more attempts with only 174 more yards and 2.9% lower catch rate

Overall
We attempted 73 less running plays for a loss of 480 yards but increased our pass plays by 27 plays and only got 174 more yards. This is a net loss of 306 yards of offense.

In looking at where it was lost, you can see the attempts by Cohen and Patterson were down from 2018 (from just Cohen himself). They also lowered the attempts to get Cohen the ball by 22 times. Another telling stat for me was the excuse for getting rid of Howard had a lot to do with him not catching the ball well but they only threw 5 more times to Montgomery this year. This offense needs to run the ball more, get the ball into the hands of Patterson, Cohen, and Montgomery more and less in the hands of Mitch for next season.
There's a lot wrong here.

First, you're conflating correlation and causation.

Of course we ran the ball more... we were 12-4 and led in every game we played. In 2 of those 4 losses we led until the very end of the game. So, despite it being a game we lost. It was still a running game-script for our offense.

When you trail a bunch of games in the 4th quarter or just by multiple scores, in general. You have to throw. How many games had the Bears in a running game-script in the 2nd half and ultimately the 4th quarter? Denver, Washington, Minnesota, Detroit, NYG, Dallas...? So, five? Five games where we were in a "run the ball" position?

You also aren't taking into consideration that Mitch ran the ball 20 more times for 228 more yards. Many of his runs were out of called passing plays where he scrambled. Most were, in fact.

Howard and Montgomery (our lead ball carriers) averaged approximately the same YPC as each other in 2018 and 2019 at 3.7.

Our RB's as a whole averaged 3.83 YPC.

No one denies that the offense was worse. That being said, if you're going to start diagnosing problems. You have to use the correct interpretation and have your ducks in a row. That's all. Context is key.
Last edited by Richie on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:55 am
Here's the biggest statistic though:

2018
Rushing yards per carry: 4.14
Passing yards per attempt: 7.3
First downs rushing: 108 (23.1%)
First downs passing: 177 (34.6%)

2019
Rushing yards per carry: 3.69
Passing yards per attempt: 6.2
First downs rushing: 85 (21.5%)
First downs passing: 178 (30.7%)

Difference
Rushing yards per carry: -0.45
Passing yards per attempt: -0.9
First downs rushing: -23 (-2.4%)
First downs passing: +1 (-3.9%)

Half a yard less per rush and a yard less per pass adds up to a lot fewer drive sustaining first downs.
Trubisky's rushing really hid a lot of issues in 2018.

When you remove his rushing numbers? 68 carries for 421 yards? We only averaged 3.76 yards per carry that season.

Our RB's? 3.83

Outside of a small stint in December last year? We've never run under Nagy. The numbers are boosted by Mitch taking off and running on drop backs.
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Trubisky's rushing really hid a lot of issues in 2018.

When you remove his rushing numbers? 68 carries for 421 yards? We only averaged 3.76 yards per carry that season.

Our RB's? 3.83

Outside of a small stint in December last year? We've never run under Nagy. The numbers are boosted by Mitch taking off and running on drop backs.
It's almost as if people don't want to admit/remember that while Howard rushed for 935 yards in 2018, Mitch and Cohen ran for almost exactly the same amount of yards (421/444 respectively).

Additionally...

In 2018, Howard played in all 16 games and started 15 of them. He ran 250 times for 935 yards.

In 2019, Montgomery played in all 16 games and started 8 of them. He ran 242 times for 889 yards.

Are people really trying to say that 8 more rushes for 46 more yards matters?

What matters in that Cohen was more productive in 2018 and Mitch did in fact cover up a lot of issues with the running game.
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We seem to have forgotten that this thread is supposed to be about Eric Ebron, but wab's 100% correct that our rushing offense was not at all good last year. We frequently saw much the same lack of commitment to it from Nagy. Time and again we were aghast at how few carries Howard was getting in the first half of games, never allowing him to get into a rhythm. It wasn't until the last few games of the season that he finally got going... and then in the playoff game against the Eagles Nagy turned back into his usual self.

It was all blamed on Howard being a bad fit and not posing any threat in the passing game. They jettison him off to the Eagles for pittance and bring in their hand picked replacements; Davis in free agency and Montgomery in the draft. Davis didn't contribute and didn't even last the season. Montgomery, like Howard before him, had a few nice games in amongst the completely ineffectual but he didn't do much in the passing game either. The problem clearly wasn't the running back, but Nagy, his scheme and it's execution.

If we're talking about TEs in this thread then we have to wonder if the same issue isn't true for this position as with RB. Was it a complete dearth of talent behind Burton or was there a greater underlying cause for the utter lack of production from the position?
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Way too much is being made of the TE problem.

Without an offensive line and a running game a TE is lipstick on a pig.

The bigger victory is spending the cap money and/or draft choices on upgrading the OL which improves the running and passing game. Teams have won for decades without an elite TE, but an elite OL makes everything easier. We had a top 10 defense last year, but the Raiders kicked the shit out of us with that line. We need a line like that.

TEs get open because either the LB bites on a play action (The Bears would have to call a PA play first but you get my point.) or the defense puts more DBs on the field because they're afraid of the pass to the WR and a TE gets open underneath.

Yeah sure there are outliers like Gronk and Witten, but those are outliers.

I don't understand where the cap money is coming from to get a great TE anyway, but assuming we have it I'd rather upgrade the right side of the line. Upgrading Leno is most likely realistically out of the question.
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Yeah, I don't see moving the needle much at the TE position this offseason. I could see the team using a pick on one, but a starting guard (or center if you want to Daniels and Whitehair to be your guards) and a developmental tackle are more important.

Related - I'm never going to stop the "move Leno to guard" crusade until he's no longer a Bear. But I'm resigned to the fact that he will undoubtedly be the LT next season.
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The Bears are not going to pay big money to an offensive tackle. They are stuck with what they have for 2020 and will just have to make due.

Conklin is gonna get PAID. And it won't be by the Bears. Williams is still under contract, will be 32, has medical drama, and wants a massive extension. Scherff is also getting paid, and it will probably be by the redskins.

Joe Thuney might be a reasonable option. They could also sign a center and play both Daniels and Whitehair at guard. Stefen Wisniewski, Connor McGovern, Brett Jones are options at that position. Or even an in house option like Corey Levin at center.

At the end of the day though, these players will likely come from the draft.
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Richie wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:26 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:22 am Teams have won for decades without an elite TE, but an elite OL makes everything easier.
After either SF or KC wins this SB. It will be 5 years SINCE a team won WITHOUT an elite TE. (6 out of the last 7 have had one too, FWIW)
We had a top 10 defense last year, but the Raiders kicked the shit out of us with that line. We need a line like that.
A lot of good it did them. It all amounted to another losing season.

I'm a big proponent of O-line being of the UTMOST importance. But this is a poor model of what we want to be. Gruden's offense has next to no chance in this day and age.
So what about the TE? Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Use common sense. Good luck throwing passes to that TE with no time because of the pass rush. Our OL was dogshit last year. That needs to be addressed first.

Do you really think the Raiders' OL CONTRIBUTED to their failure this season? There's nothing wrong with saying that I wish we had a line as good as the Raiders.
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mmmc_35 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:45 am
wab wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:59 pm It’s weird that with this team being garbage with a garbage coach and a garbage front office...that players specifically mention wanting to come here.
Huh, or...

Team has a position you play as a major need.

Coach and GM who are on hot seat, need to win now and may need to get creative to win.

Both of wich could add money into your pocket.

Yeah I'm dont by your implication WAB.
Yea...this. Players are opportunistic as they should be. Plus where they live and if they have any friends on the team also play a part in it. The one thing I will give you is that I believe NFL players would want to play for Nagy (he's a players coach if I've ever seen one), and TE's especially would want to play in an offense that features the position. But to imply that this means anything about the state of our team/roster is just flat wrong.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:07 pm Ok, we have a 3 page thread about Eric Ebron.

He played in 11 games and had 375 yards receiving in 2019.

Since OL is the real problem, can we have a 50 pager about that instead?
I already solved it. Sign a starting center and let Daniels/Whitehair play guard.
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Favor leaving Whitehair at C. Trubisky seemed to breathe a sigh of relief when Daniels was shifted and he got a sharper vet he was used to interacting with back at C. Long snapping had been Whitehair's weakness, but he seemed to finally settle down last stint. Since Trubisky seems to have been given the job, let him have a C he is used to, that knows the O.

Hoping they draft another versatile OL like Whitehair but with longer arms. A guy that can step right into RG then move to either OT in 2021 replacing whichever OT plays worse next season. Then fill RG the season after with a FA or another draftee next offseason.

The Bears OTs aren't good and they have no swing tackle if Leno goes down. They need to get better there to compete with the top teams.
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wab wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:50 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:07 pm Ok, we have a 3 page thread about Eric Ebron.

He played in 11 games and had 375 yards receiving in 2019.

Since OL is the real problem, can we have a 50 pager about that instead?
I already solved it. Sign a starting center and let Daniels/Whitehair play guard.
How does that solve our problem at both tackle positions? Leno was atrocious, and Massie regressed to fairly poor play himself. And, as you all love to point out, we're "pot committed" to those guys. We'll need to get more creative to really solve this problem.
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dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:52 pm
wab wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:50 pm
I already solved it. Sign a starting center and let Daniels/Whitehair play guard.
How does that solve our problem at both tackle positions? Leno was atrocious, and Massie regressed to fairly poor play himself. And, as you all love to point out, we're "pot committed" to those guys. We'll need to get more creative to really solve this problem.
It won't be addressed in earnest until 2021 at the earliest. So.... I don't know what there is to solve outside of signing and/or drafting a developmental swing tackle.

Barring injury, those two are the starting tackles for 2020. I don't know what else to tell you.
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wab wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:57 pm
dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:52 pm

How does that solve our problem at both tackle positions? Leno was atrocious, and Massie regressed to fairly poor play himself. And, as you all love to point out, we're "pot committed" to those guys. We'll need to get more creative to really solve this problem.
It won't be addressed in earnest until 2021 at the earliest. So.... I don't know what there is to solve outside of signing and/or drafting a developmental swing tackle.

Barring injury, those two are the starting tackles for 2020. I don't know what else to tell you.
Leno and Massie as your starting tackles isn't THAT bad. If their health goes south and their play follows, then the contracts can be looked at with the clarity of retrospect (which football fans LOVE to do). Until the shit hits the fan, you have to assume their health is stable, supports an above average performance which earns them above average pay.

They had a terrible year last year, but it's hard to properly evaluate the impact of their regression when the entire offense collectively drowned. It's better to go into 2020 hoping for the best and planning for the worst - draft and sign quality depth. If you go into 2020 with your primary backups being Lucas and Coward, you've deliberately sabotaged your offensive line.
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I'll say I thought Lucas played reasonably well as a backup pressed into service. Not so well that I think he solves our problem, but I'm hoping we can hold onto him as one of our 3 active reserve olinemen going into next year.
2023 Preseason Downside prediction:
5-6 wins, never really healthy all season, a constant shuffling.
We're potentially in a position to draft in the Top 5 again, depending on the Carolina team, and probably have a low-teens (or better) pick ourselves.
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How come you guys keep excusing every bad performer on offense with the statement "the entire offense collectively drowned". I mean, they are the guys that drowned aren't they? We were the 29th ranked offense in the NFL, but if I'm to listen to this board: Nagy is fine, Trubisky is fine, our OL is fine, and our TE's are fine. We just need to replace our backup G and T. Huh?

And why would our BACKUPS be a deliberate sabotage of the OL? In my view, going into 2020 with Leno/Massie as your starting tackles is a deliberate sabotage. I mean...those are the guys that actually play. You must have noticed an improvement, particularly in pass pro, when Lucas stepped in for Massie. How in the world do you put last year on Lucas, who was a pleasant surprise? Leno spent the whole season getting hands to the face penalties, holding penalties, and getting bulldozed by opposed DB's. Massie played better than Leno, but that's a tallest midget deal.

BTW...speaking of Trubisky. PFF ranked our OL 25th. They ranked us AHEAD of Seattle at 27th. And yet Russell Wilson overcame that to have an MVP type season (second only to Lamar Jackson). But our guy has to have great protection and perfect mechanics or he'll sail an 8 yard out over the head of his receiver. Aargh.

You folks are professionals at excuse making. It's ok to be critical and it's prudent to seek answers when you were a bottom 3 offense in football guys. High performing people and organizations encourage criticism so long as it's constructive in nature. Do you folks HONESTLY believe that just changing our RG is going to somehow move us from 29th to middle of the pack on offense? I sure hope Pace is a more honest evaluator than this board is or we're screwed. I'm just waiting for someone to point out that "hey, at least we weren't bottom 2, we're fine".
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G08 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:01 am Based on his 2019 tape, I just don't know how you can go into 2020 with Charles Leno as your starting LT.
My impression was that Leno played fine the last half after he made some adjustments to avoid holding calls. Is there a late-in-the-season game where he played badly or you're focused on the first half?
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dplank wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:56 pm How come you guys keep excusing every bad performer on offense with the statement "the entire offense collectively drowned". I mean, they are the guys that drowned aren't they? We were the 29th ranked offense in the NFL, but if I'm to listen to this board: Nagy is fine, Trubisky is fine, our OL is fine, and our TE's are fine. We just need to replace our backup G and T. Huh?

And why would our BACKUPS be a deliberate sabotage of the OL? In my view, going into 2020 with Leno/Massie as your starting tackles is a deliberate sabotage. I mean...those are the guys that actually play. You must have noticed an improvement, particularly in pass pro, when Lucas stepped in for Massie. How in the world do you put last year on Lucas, who was a pleasant surprise? Leno spent the whole season getting hands to the face penalties, holding penalties, and getting bulldozed by opposed DB's. Massie played better than Leno, but that's a tallest midget deal.

BTW...speaking of Trubisky. PFF ranked our OL 25th. They ranked us AHEAD of Seattle at 27th. And yet Russell Wilson overcame that to have an MVP type season (second only to Lamar Jackson). But our guy has to have great protection and perfect mechanics or he'll sail an 8 yard out over the head of his receiver. Aargh.

You folks are professionals at excuse making. It's ok to be critical and it's prudent to seek answers when you were a bottom 3 offense in football guys. High performing people and organizations encourage criticism so long as it's constructive in nature. Do you folks HONESTLY believe that just changing our RG is going to somehow move us from 29th to middle of the pack on offense? I sure hope Pace is a more honest evaluator than this board is or we're screwed. I'm just waiting for someone to point out that "hey, at least we weren't bottom 2, we're fine".
I really don't know what to tell you if you don't understand the realities of the salary cap and football as a business.

If you think any professional football team is going to sit nearly 20million in cap space on the bench, then trade for Trent Williams and sign Jack Conklin, rather than squeeze everything they possibly can out of the guys they have and hope for a rebound season... then there's no real discussion to be had about it.

And for the record... my hate for Charles Leno is legendary here. So, excuses I do not make when it comes to that dude.
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