The Derek Carr stuff

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Hoog
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The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:05 pm

Man, one rumor and teams really need to duck and hide don't they? Read an article this morning about the Raiders saying they would be interested in Brady if he become available. Who wouldn't? Well, that started a fire storm of things about Vegas now wanting to get rid of Carr. Oh, and who do you think was listed as interested? As we have been with every other QB out there.

I just don't see this happening but I have always been a fan of Carr and hey, I wouldn't mind getting him in a Bears uni if this come to be true. Just wanted to see thoughts out there.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:13 pm

He'd obviously be an upgrade to Mitch, but he isn't some unquestioned franchise signal caller either. The Bears would be picking up about 3/58 left on the deal, which wouldn't be bad, but I don't know how much in draft capital I'd be willing the throw on top of that. And they'd obviously have some cap casualties elsewhere to make it happen, without much space to add support for 2020.

I think I'd pursue other avenues, with the biggest thing being targeting a relatively high pick in 2020 or 2021 draft and retooling the D a bit to try and set up another "cheap QB and elite D" window from 2022-24 or so.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:33 pm

Agree he'd be an obvious upgrade at QB for us, but I just don't see Pace/Nagy bringing in anyone who would demand the starting job outright, which is what Carr would want (as would Brady, Rivers, Newton, etc). That could either be a Mariotta type or a R2/3 draft type, something like that.

My personal preference would be to move on from Mitch, I just think we know who he is now after 3 years. But that's just not how we're going to do it so really our best hope is that Mitch has a magic turnaround in him.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:31 pm

dplank wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:33 pm
Agree he'd be an obvious upgrade at QB for us, but I just don't see Pace/Nagy bringing in anyone who would demand the starting job outright, which is what Carr would want (as would Brady, Rivers, Newton, etc). That could either be a Mariotta type or a R2/3 draft type, something like that.
I agree. Carr would only be acquired if the team had a fairly elegant plan in place to deal Trubisky. You can't have that poison in the locker room. Carr would be the outright starter, and Mitch would be the pariah.

Carr and Khalil Mack were basically best friends, so that reunion would be pretty awesome.

It's a complicated situation, but never say never.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:16 pm

If they were going to trade Mitch, then absolutely. That's the only way it would work. But I doubt very much it would happen.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:37 pm

I've always been a fan of his so I'd love to bring him here if Las Vegas winds up releasing him. Not sure I'd want to trade for him at this point...
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First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:46 pm

I'm guessing he would be super pissed having to go from paying 0% income tax in Nevada to the ~5% here in Illinois, but it's gotta be better than the 13% he was paying in California.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:14 pm

It seems far-fetched but not totally implausible. Agreed that you absolutely MUST trade Trubisky in that scenario.

Carr isn't great. But he is a solid NFL QB that you can probably win with if this defense remains elite and cover up some of the holes protecting him. 3/58 is actually good nowadays compared to what most teams pay their franchise QB.

Again, though... any of these bigger names just seem quite unlikely. I think it's going to be a vet like AJ McCarron who has a connection with Lazor. Who I do like as a backup and don't hate as an insurance policy if Trubisky comes out totally stinking up the joint.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:41 am

I really like Carr. Even when the Raiders Oline sucked and he was getting pummeled on the regular... he still put up pretty darn good numbers... see that sack rate & those stats from '18? Holy crap. And last year after the ABrown debacle he went to war with a #2 or 3 WR and a bunch of no-name TEs and put up an over 100 rating. Guy's got a good long ball touch that we desperately need.

Pull the trigger, Ryan.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:41 am

What if it costs next years first rounder, would you still do it?
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:47 am

AZ_Bearfan wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:41 am
What if it costs next years first rounder, would you still do it?
I'm guessing that would be the minimum first portion of that exchange.

To answer that, I guess so. I assume Trubisky would be part of the exchange, which would help offset the cost.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:56 am

But.... but.... I bought 2 Trubisky jerseys.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:05 pm

IE wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:41 am
I really like Carr. Even when the Raiders Oline sucked and he was getting pummeled on the regular... he still put up pretty darn good numbers... see that sack rate & those stats from '18? Holy crap. And last year after the ABrown debacle he went to war with a #2 or 3 WR and a bunch of no-name TEs and put up an over 100 rating. Guy's got a good long ball touch that we desperately need.

Pull the trigger, Ryan.
If there is a realistic way to acquire him for the Bears and they don't pull the trigger I'll be apoplectic.

Of course, there's no way to ever know for sure, so rationally I can't be angry about it. But that sort of thing has never stopped me before.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:19 pm

Yep. Win now.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:22 pm

AZ_Bearfan wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:41 am
What if it costs next years first rounder, would you still do it?
No.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:17 pm

AZ_Bearfan wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:41 am
What if it costs next years first rounder, would you still do it?
No. At some point the Bears need to have draft capital. I don't want to be the team that helped build the Raiders into a dynasty.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:42 pm

I think he's only a minor upgrade over 2019 Trubisky, and that's not good enough. It's also not worth whatever the Bears would have to pay to acquire him.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm

crueltyabc wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:42 pm
I think he's only a minor upgrade over 2019 Trubisky
I am unsure that this is even a mildly defensible statement.

He's an upper 60s completion guy with a 2.5 - 3 /1 td to interception guy whose number one target this season had a career high of 85 yards coming in. He's not Peyton Manning, but I'll be damned if he's not right around a top 10 quarterback. Trubisky is not that, or even close to it.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:46 am

I doubt he'd bring higher than a 2nd and possibly lower. Alex Smith, traded from SF to KC and then from KC to Washington, only brought a 2nd in each trade.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:40 am

BR0D1E86 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm
crueltyabc wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:42 pm
I think he's only a minor upgrade over 2019 Trubisky
I am unsure that this is even a mildly defensible statement.

He's an upper 60s completion guy with a 2.5 - 3 /1 td to interception guy whose number one target this season had a career high of 85 yards coming in. He's not Peyton Manning, but I'll be damned if he's not right around a top 10 quarterback. Trubisky is not that, or even close to it.
EHHHHHH, if Derek was actually a top ten QB, I refuse to believe that:
-He'd be available, and also
-There wouldn't be a line around the block to trade for him.

I get that the Raiders havent been a bastion of stability while he's been there, but every snap I've seen from him has told me he's a solidly mid-level, perfectly serviceable andy dalton-eque player who wont lose games but will rarely win them either. For 25 million a year and a high draft pick or two? count me out unless he's bringing josh jacobs with him.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:20 am

RustyTrubisky wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:40 am
BR0D1E86 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm


I am unsure that this is even a mildly defensible statement.

He's an upper 60s completion guy with a 2.5 - 3 /1 td to interception guy whose number one target this season had a career high of 85 yards coming in. He's not Peyton Manning, but I'll be damned if he's not right around a top 10 quarterback. Trubisky is not that, or even close to it.
EHHHHHH, if Derek was actually a top ten QB, I refuse to believe that:
-He'd be available, and also
-There wouldn't be a line around the block to trade for him.

I get that the Raiders havent been a bastion of stability while he's been there, but every snap I've seen from him has told me he's a solidly mid-level, perfectly serviceable andy dalton-eque player who wont lose games but will rarely win them either. For 25 million a year and a high draft pick or two? count me out unless he's bringing josh jacobs with him.
He was #9 in 2019. Mitch was about 30th. I used 100 passes as a qualifying number. His TD production fell off when Chuckie arrived - but his ratings and such are consistent and improving over time.

That's not going to happen though. I can't believe Brady would go to Vegas. Looking at the stats more I think Keenum would be a preference for me over Dalton mostly because of cost.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats? ... ified=true
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:38 am

RustyTrubisky wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:40 am
BR0D1E86 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm


I am unsure that this is even a mildly defensible statement.

He's an upper 60s completion guy with a 2.5 - 3 /1 td to interception guy whose number one target this season had a career high of 85 yards coming in. He's not Peyton Manning, but I'll be damned if he's not right around a top 10 quarterback. Trubisky is not that, or even close to it.
EHHHHHH, if Derek was actually a top ten QB, I refuse to believe that:
-He'd be available, and also
-There wouldn't be a line around the block to trade for him.

I get that the Raiders havent been a bastion of stability while he's been there, but every snap I've seen from him has told me he's a solidly mid-level, perfectly serviceable andy dalton-eque player who wont lose games but will rarely win them either. For 25 million a year and a high draft pick or two? count me out unless he's bringing josh jacobs with him.
He really is Alex Smith if you look at some of the numbers... found this on twitter:

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First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:10 am

I'm not going to lie... I'm enjoying this back and forth on Trubisky and can't fucking wait for the 2020 season to get here so we can see what the kid's got. I sincerely hope he takes a major step forward this upcoming season.
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First 41 starts in NFL (updated weekly):

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2 rating

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8 rating
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:45 am

Without any major improvement to the OL, I think we all know what we got in 10. THE only way for him to improve is if he is behind a much better OL.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:38 pm

I checked FBO and surprised to see that Carr was indeed right around 10th in DYAR and DVOA for a couple years of his career. I thought of him as a 12-20 type guy, but in my defense he was also in that range for parts of his career. Given that inconsistency I've gotta trust my eyes and say that he's a "solid" or "good" starter. He mostly check-downs his way to a 250 yd 1 TD statline and leaves it to the rest of his team to win the game. If he was already a Bear, I would probably be arguing to extend him. We would spend the offseason wondering how can we get the 10th ranked Carr play instead of the 20th ranked car play. Instead, we're talking about trading scarce draft assets for him and betting that he'll find consistent success in a new system with a new coach and likely some holes that the Bears can't fill due to their QB investment.

Not worth the risk to me.

I'm looking at 2020 to restock, improve, and be sure that Trubisky isn't the guy.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:02 pm

If Carr was available, who might be interested?

NE
LAC (if they do move in from Rivers)
TAM (If they move on from Winston)
CAR (If they move on from Newton)
IND
TEN, (bit of a wildcard, as most assume they'll ink Tannehil, but if they didn't)
No, (If Brees retires)

Still, you have some decent FA options, and teams may rather fill via that than give up draft capital. But a market could heat up.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:31 pm

Pulling things out of my ass, I think a fair offer for Carr would be:

LAR receives:
- Trubisky
- both Bears 2019 2nd round picks
- 2021 4th

CHI receives:
- Carr
- RD 3 P 81
- RD 4 P 111
- 2021 Conditional (based on Trubisky numbers)
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:44 pm

UOK wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:31 pm
Pulling things out of my ass, I think a fair offer for Carr would be:

LAR receives:
- Trubisky
- both Bears 2019 2nd round picks
- 2021 4th

CHI receives:
- Carr
- RD 3 P 81
- RD 4 P 111
- 2021 Conditional (based on Trubisky numbers)
Why include Trubisky? Carr is presumably moved because the have Brady, and yes, they'd need an heir apparent, but would probably much rather draft and develop their own guy. For the Bears, including him seems to be negative value.

I'd pass hard on that trade.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:47 pm

Carr probably isn't going to command more than what various teams gave up for Alex Smith.

This Brady to the Raiders thing is weird and has little validity to me.
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Re: The Derek Carr stuff

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:48 pm

The Cooler King wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:44 pm
UOK wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:31 pm
Pulling things out of my ass, I think a fair offer for Carr would be:

LAR receives:
- Trubisky
- both Bears 2019 2nd round picks
- 2021 4th

CHI receives:
- Carr
- RD 3 P 81
- RD 4 P 111
- 2021 Conditional (based on Trubisky numbers)
Why include Trubisky? Carr is presumably moved because the have Brady, and yes, they'd need an heir apparent, but would probably much rather draft and develop their own guy. For the Bears, including him seems to be negative value.

I'd pass hard on that trade.
I'd include Trubisky only because keeping him around the roster would be a political nightmare. He wouldn't want to be there, knowing the team had to trade a ton of assets to replace him, and he would want a fresh start where he didn't have the expectations hanging over his head.
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